“Billion-Dollar Mountain of Silver Trading for Under $1!” (McCoach)

Sniffing out "The Most Explosive Junior Silver Stock of 2012" teased by Greg McCoach's Mining Speculator

When it comes to resource stocks, the way to get people excited is by saying that you can buy a massive stockpile of X (oil, silver, gold, lead, whatever) for a fraction of its real value. If you can make that kind of promise, you’ll get at least some investors excited … even if the market is uneasy or even if commodity-related stocks are getting clobbered (as most of them are now).

So that’s what’s happening here in today’s tease from Greg McCoach. McCoach was fairly early to what is now a crowded marketplace of mining stock newsletters with his relatively low-cost Mining Speculator, which launched right around the time of the tech bubble’s burst a dozen years ago and therefore caught on to at least some of the excitement of gold’s almost constant rise over the past decade. He’s picked and teased some stinkers and poor performers, to be sure, including stocks like Canadian Zinc that illustrate the potential difficulty of permitting and building mines even in mining-friendly countries where a deposit has already been identified, or MetalCORP, which is one of the many metals explorers that never recovered from the 2008 crash … but he has also teased a few stocks that did very well (at least in the short term) and one or two longer-term winners.

Frankly, mining is a terrible business, particularly at the bottom of the pyramid where the tiny startup companies are operating — rife with failure, delays, cost overruns and funding challenges and filled with companies run by pathological optimists … but, of course, it’s also one of the few sectors that offers investors the possibility of short-term returns of several hundred percent or more, with the bonus that commodity explorers are also generally leveraged to positive moves in commodity prices. So junior mining speculators take the good with the bad, research obsessively as they scan the latest core samples or drilling results or water rights disputes, and hope that they’re smart enough or lucky enough to sift out the winners … or, at least, that they’ll have enough winners to make up for the fact that they’re destined to choose some stocks that don’t find valuable resources, can’t produce those resources or can’t produce them at a low enough cost, or turn out to be scams.

So after that cheery intro, how do you feel about finding out who Greg McCoach’s new silver favorite is? We’ve come this far, might as well actually reveal the deep, dark secrets.

The underlying promise, shared in the emails that link to McCoach’s ad as well as by McCoach himself, is that silver is going to go up … and probably go up a lot … even more than gold, which every mining newsletter also believes will eventually resume its rise. That’s based on the fact that silver went up more dramatically than gold over the last couple years, and on the historical gold/silver ratio that is still out of whack because of Gold’s much more dramatic rise over the long term.

I don’t know whether silver will return to the historic price of roughly 1/16th the price of gold (and I mean really historic, based on some pretty sketchy numbers going back centuries), partly because it’s the ultimate in supply-side thinking and doesn’t take into account the wildly varying demand for gold and silver in the “post-real-money” era (meaning, ever since gold and silver stopped being widely used as money — which is roughly the last 50-80 years, depending on where you draw the line). You could also argue that silver, as the more useful metal, is the one that’s priced more rationally, which would mean gold would have to come down dramatically to return that ratio to historic norms. I don’t know that we should rely that much on a ratio that has wavered from 10 to 100 over the last 100 years, but there are plenty of people who do put a lot of stake in it as the “real” ratio because it reflects the roughly 10 or 20-1 ratio between silver and gold in the earth’s crust, and the similar ratio in the numbers of ounces of in-ground reserves that have been identified by miners.

I do own some gold and silver personally, and I’m not arguing that they should go up or down right now, or that it’s impossible for silver go to to $100 in the near future … I’m just throwing a little bit of sand in the works to slow down the gears enough that you can think it over. Nothing is as easy or as predictable as the enticing price projections and charts that most newsletter ads use.

But anyway, that’s the short argument: Silver has gone up more, and it will go up more, says McCoach (in his words, “junior silver stocks are poised to skyrocket even higher than junior gold stocks”). And silver has certainly been far more volatile and exciting than gold. So what’s this silver miner that he thinks you should buy?

Well, he tosses out a lovely supply of clues:

“An Opportunity SO Rare, Most Investors Will Only Have This One Chance to Cash In…

“Billion-Dollar Mountain of Silver Trading for Under $1! ….

“Major buzz is starting to filter its way through the mining community…

“Just 15 miles southwest of a huge $5 BILLION silver deposit in mining-friendly Peru, one tiny exploration company has hit the precious metals jackpot…

“Having staked 46 claims in a site that spans 25,291 acres, they’ve quietly uncovered what could be a huge mountain of silver.

“It’s a massive 35 million ounce silver discovery currently valued at an impressive $1.1 BILLION — and growing quickly.

“In fact, I think this mountain could hold several hundred millions of ounces of silver.

“Even better, you can scoop up shares of this explosive stock right now for under $1 a share…”

Rare, explosive and under a buck? Well, who can resist?

Some more details about this company that we can toss into the ol’ Thinkolator:

“… not only does this company have exclusive 100% rights to what could be one of the world’s largest remaining untapped deposits of silver… but it’s also one of the richest silver finds on the planet….

“… small company with a market cap just shy of $35 million…. You could see gains of 2,496% once investors catch wind of this fast-moving small cap situation, turning every $5,000 into $124,800 …

“… all 15 holes they drilled except for one came up with high-grade silver. So we may have a conservative estimate here….

“It’s one of the richest silver belts on the planet… and it’s home to several world-class silver mines.

“In fact, to the southwest of this company’s site is Cerro de Pasco, Peru’s fourth largest silver mine and one of the biggest in all of South America.

“Plus this company’s site is mere miles from a massive $5 billion silver deposit that’s currently being exploited by Buenaventura Mining, a ‘senior’ gold and silver producer. So this is an area that’s absolutely teeming with mining activity.

“Currently, our tiny silver company is exploring two separate mineral zones at its vast site.

“The first zone contains the massive 35 million ounce deposit of silver, which, as I said earlier, is just the tip of the iceberg.

“The company’s CEO says mineralization has a width of 100 meters near the surface and extends as far down as a whopping 200 meters.”

So … that ought to be enough clues and enticement, right? What’s the company?

Well, in the clues go — the Thinkolator is humming along nicely, not too long now … and there, our answer comes spitting out: this is Tinka Resources (TK in Canada, TKRFF on the pink sheets).

And yes, as teased, it is teensy, with a market cap now of about $36 million and a share price just over 50 cents — so if you decide you love it, be careful. Over the last three months this stock has traded less than $100,000 worth of shares most days (and far less than that on the pink sheets), so it wouldn’t take too many Gumshoe readers, who are undoubtedly at least as wealthy as they are witty and good looking, to move the stock price if they decided to buy the shares. I don’t know when McCoach first mentioned this one to his subscribers, but we’re right in the middle of the 30-70 cent range it has bounced around in for the first half of this year and volume picked up considerably in February and March (which also coincided, to be fair, with some a bunch of news — mostly drilling results).

The big silver project that McCoach is teasing is the Colquipucro project in Peru, which is a potential silver, zinc and lead mine — and the basic info that McCoach teases is an exact match for how they describe themselves on the website — 15 drill holes, all but one finding pay dirt (or pay rock, I guess); 46 claims over 25,291 acres (though the company uses hectares as their measure, so it’s the equivalent 10,234.85 ha — seems McCoach’s copywriter was trying to throw us off the scent by converting units of measurement, a common tactic); and the general descriptions of the rich veins of silver mineralization found. So I’m quite sure the Thinkolator’s answer is correct this time around.

Though it’s worth noting, the company itself so far claims only about 20 million ounces of inferred resources in their official NI 43-101 filints (which themselves are four or five years old) — though I have seen vague commentary that they think there’s at least enough possible resource to bump that first site up into the 30-35 million ounce area, so I suspect that’s what McCoach is using as his source for the 35 million ounces.

We know, of course, that silver spread throughout rock under a couple hundred feet of dirt isn’t as valuable as silver that’s been turned into a coin or a lovely piece of flatware, so it’s absurd to go straight to the 35 million “possible” ounces of silver in the ground and say that number should be multiplied by the price of silver, about $30, to say the company is worth a billion dollars. Absurd … but also, of course, the kind of lust-inducing verbiage that pretty much all the mining newsletters use. All explorers are worth a small fraction of the theoretical value of the metal (or whatever) in the ground, and always will be (why? Uncertainty about what’s really there, the cost of extraction, the long time it takes to get permits and build infrastructure and build a mine, the cost of processing ore, the uncertainty about what prices will be in ten years when they actually produce metal, the fact that almost all miners dilute like crazy to raise money for development, etc. etc.).

But that doesn’t mean the company isn’t worth checking out — it just means that the idea that there’s a “real” value of a billion dollars hiding in this explorer is ridiculous (and yes, if the share price rose by the teased possible 2,496% noted above, it would be right up around a billion dollars in market capitalization … assuming they hadn’t also sold more shares along the way, which they almost certainly will). So that’s not going to happen … but is the stock worthwhile?

Well, it’s early days and I’m no mining expert — but they are in a big silver mining district and they do have a large area to explore with some good drilling results so far. That doesn’t make them unique, but there is some “there” there — whether it’s worth $35 million right now, or more or less, is your choice to make (it’s your money, after all — and many of you know a lot more about mining than I do). If you want an optimistic snippet the Gold Report folks have summarized a few of the pundit commentaries on Tinka here (including McCoach’s), and the company itself is very self-delighted (as they all are) in their presentation here.

Personally, I’ve recognized that I don’t want to learn enough about geology to become a junior mining stock expert or ride in helicopters to stare meaningfully at core samples (that’s largely why I tend to invest in the more diversified financiers, prospect generators and royalty companies instead — so with silver I’d probably look first at Silver Wheaton (SLW), though I don’t now own it) … so I’ll just ID the stocks for you that the mining letters are teasing, and open up the floor for comments. Anyone think Tinka looks good? Bad? Don’t be shy now …

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ShowHide Comments (70)
    1. Marc P
      Jun 6 2012, 04:05:39 pm

      There is a fellow named Dan who has established quite a good blog called The Fundamental View who got me interested in Tinka several months back (at higher prices, I may add) and he is still calling it the silver story of 2012. I’ve been stopped out for months now but have just taken a small position recently, as I think we have seen a bottom (actually double bottom confirmed) in silver – not that it can’t go lower, of course!
      His most recent update on Tinka Resources can be found here:

      • Alan Coburn
        Mar 25 2013, 08:37:00 pm

        Peru is not pretty open sewer all over lima. No middle class/the very rich would never
        let Tinka export large stock profits. Mccoach is known as a dart thrower not what he says like
        i go and visit the sites.the guy been at his computer in his little apartment story telling.

      • Marc P
        Jun 6 2012, 07:00:01 pm

        Looking at your Canadian Insider website it appears that there is considerably more insider buying (green numbers) than selling (red numbers), buy a large multiple, both in volume and transactions

      • Kenneth Shonk
        Jul 26 2012, 04:07:55 pm

        Insiders in junior companies sell for a variety of reason unrelated to the company’s fundamentals. These include 1) diversification if they have too much of their assets in the stock, 2) generate additional income to cover expenses since they often do not get sufficient billable work to generate the income they need , 3) pay back loans used to buy options even if the options were at a lower price since sellingthe stock acquired from exercising options all at once would likely be more than the market could absorb since these stocks are typically not highly liquid. Diversification sells are usually part of a preplanned selling program.

        • Aaron Molina
          Oct 12 2013, 10:52:09 pm

          I have an large epithermal deposit in Chihuahua state in the Sierra Madre Occidental, very similar to El Sausal with FeOx & Argillic alteration iside of the mining claim (18,590 hectares) I see your CUCHARAS report, too very similar at this deposit.
          very truly yours,
          Aaron Molina

    2. Saabman
      Jun 6 2012, 07:33:34 pm

      I have subscribed to McCoach for aprox 3 years and, Nothing, absolutely nothing he has recommended has gone anywhere. I would call it a Disaster……Just seems strange… Shortly after his recommendations the stock falls…..Are we buying when he is selling!!???

      • kenneth liddick
        Jun 6 2012, 11:33:01 pm

        I agree with Travis’ comment about looking at SLW. Seems risk/reward would be far better than the stock under $1 highlighted here., especially with rising PM prices. Holding EXK , AUNFF and AGQ and aunff has held up well. Would be tempted to bite at PAAS if they weren’t exposed in Argentina. I don’t trust Argentina not to nationalize more foreign investment.
        On another note, it is amusing that “customer service” for Private Wealth Advisory complains about unfair newsletter reviews here and right away we see a plethora of highly flattering reviews about the service. Makes me want to sign up pronto.
        As far as the pump and dump stuff, awesome penny stocks is really using hyperbole on latest pick and claims GWBU has 200 million in future orders. And yet pumpsanddumps says the stock is essentially worthless and showed how it was being manipulated in a one hour time span with bogus bids that are never filled.

      • McCoach is a liar
        Mar 4 2013, 02:19:28 pm

        Agreed Saabman. Not only is he over rated, he also does not deliver on his promises like the one he made that said he would reimburse subscriptions if targets were ot reached. In the big chew of 2008 Greg refused to reply to my emails asking where my refund was. Crook!

      • 191 |
        Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
        Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
        Oct 6 2013, 08:10:15 am

        My first experience with McCoach was identifying his earlier tease EXPLOR Resources and it may well be that more people lost money on that stock than made money as I did. While in total the stock may have been a disappointment, buying low and selling high WAS possible, I am still holding my free trading shares even after getting my money off the table with a small profit too boot. What I think happens is that “johnny come latelys” jump in AFTER the price has already risen substantially on the euphoria of a discovery expecting the price to continue rising, and then along comes a negative market sentiment like the past 18 months that takes virtually ALL juniors down, having nothing to do with the analysts original assessment of an individual stock.
        IN short, as Kenny Rogers so famously sings, “you have to know when to hold em, and know when to fold em” something that takes time and experience.

    3. Larry
      Jun 7 2012, 01:18:50 am

      I bought Mining Speculator a few weeks ago and the story on Dolly Varden silver seemed good. In a few days I was down 50%, so I asked for and received full refund for the subscription.

      • Stu
        Jun 7 2012, 03:12:04 pm

        Dolly Varden may yet pay off. I ran into an old acquaintance who is the camp boss at the site. He was loading up supplies to stock the site and mentioned that DV was where I should put some money. He has been working in mining camps around the world for years and has given me some good tips before. I was lucky and bought in the teens so am stilling sitting even. I was surprised when the M Spec started to pump them and there was a corresponding bounce. But until news comes out I think it will languish between .16 and .20.

          • 191 |
            Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
            Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
            Oct 6 2013, 08:26:36 am

            I will profile it in upcoming column for irregulars when I am personally satisfied that it is a at a good buy point.

        • 191 |
          Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
          Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
          Oct 6 2013, 08:23:54 am

          Stu: I have just recently had Dolly Varden come up on my radar and I concur that buying at current prices might just pay off as the market turns positive again. Juniors ARE Volatile and a 50% swing is not unprecedented, the question is whether Larry did his own “due diligence” and considered where the price had been in the past to determine whether he was actually able to BUY LOW or he tried to climb on a moving train and got thrown off. I have had more than one junior drop 50% after I bought it in my early days that a year later gave me a DOUBLE or better, the point being you have to get the timing right for YOU on BOTH the buy side and the sell side. Inexperienced investors who have a “buy and hold” mentality forged in the conventional market will not do well in the “junior sector” until they adjust their strategy beyond just blindly following a hyped up promo.

      • Rob Davis
        Oct 21 2012, 01:51:46 pm

        The only real way to invest in silver is to hold the product in your hand. It’s had its ups and downs as gold has . But when the true financials come out of the fed you can bet Peru will nationalize it’s mining operations it will not be in favor of U.S. stock holders.

    4. Michael Hullevad
      Jun 7 2012, 04:06:12 am

      There are a lot of pump and dump in the junior mining stocks! I would never invest a penny in a miner that has not over come the upstart phase to become self financing.
      I think Aurcana (AUR) is a good investment, they can finance their expansion them selves. (triple production in 2012-13, fully funded)
      One company that is seriously undervalued in the resource juniors is australian Silver Mines.
      They have proven silver in the ground (JORC) in a more or less mining friendly spot. Expect some action when (if) aus. premier Gilard gets kicked out of office by the voters.

    5. Myron Martin
      Myron Martin
      Jun 7 2012, 01:55:44 pm

      Marc P. the first commenter made a valuable contribution by providing a link to a website that has been following Tinka since it was @ .15 and is STILL quite positive about the companies steady progress. Since this is a new one for me, (after all there are thousands of juniors out there) and nobody can follow them all, I can only comment on stocks I have followed and invested in myself over the past 3 years with several that have similarities.
      I will just comment that I find Dan’s analysis reasonable, and while I did not read every word of his bullishness on Tinka, if it went from the .15 at which he started following it, to a HIGH of .75, then there was adequate opportunity to get ALL your original investment off the table and still hold free trading shares. The question is really whether it is a good buy at its present price, and I have not done my due diligence to determine all the factors that would influence my decision on that. Will check out their website and maybe talk to mgmt. and report my findings on my own website. IF they have adequate financing to carry out further drilling without diluting current shareholders, I am impressed with mgmt’s track record, there are a reasonable number of shares, given the state of the market it may well be at a good buy point! If you believe as I do that the current state of the worlds wobbly monetary system will send more investors to the gold and silver sector which has only a TINY amount of investment in relation to the total market, then even a small shift in sentiment could easily extend the 10 year bull market in precious metals.

      My experience with Greg McCoach and his Mining Speculator concerns primarily ONE company, EXPLOR Resources and depending on WHEN you bought it and when you sold
      you could be showing some nice profits, (as I did on several occasions) or substantial losses. I am still holding free trading shares in Explor, and like MANY of the stocks that became free trading for me in 09 and 10, their CURRENT price is 40-50% BELOW the price at which I sold, or in a few cases back where I bought them. The KEY to making profits in this sector is “TIMING” you have to KNOW the development cycle, BUY LOW after due diligence on quality of management (track record) amount of money in the till relative to number of shares out, value the market is assigning to “oz’s in the ground” and how that compares to peers, similar companies in similar jurisdictions. As Travis has pointed out, assigning “billions” of dollars value to unproven yet to be mined resources is blatant hyperbole that needs to be tempered with a realistic valuation that comes with a “PEA” (prefeasability study) that assigns a NPV (Net Present Value) and IRR, (Internal rate of return) to PROVEN,
      (Measured and Indicated) “RESERVES” as defined by 43-101 standards. A junior that is still a pure exploration play, highly speculative) needs to be evaluated very differently from one that has already done a “PEA” has 43-101 compliant reserves, and obviously you need to be well aware of the difference between Measured & Indicated relative to “INFERRED” reserves that have no economic value to be relied on.
      I see a tendency in comments, (not just on this website, but many others) to “blame the analyst” when people lose money on an investment “THEY” made, when in fact they probably relied solely on the opinion of the analyst rather than PERSONALLY becoming well informed enough to do their own due diligence and take responsibility for their own decision whether or not to invest. I don’t know of any analyst, (myself included) who expected the negative market sentiment the junior exploration/mining sector experienced in 2011, and from my perspective, in MOST CASES the fundamentals of companies have not deteriorated even remotely at the level their stock prices have, the ULTIMATE VALUE is still there, it will just take more patience to realize the profits. My perspective for 2012 is that the “general market” traditional stocks will decline further, but people who buy the “BARGAINS” in precious metals during the “summer doldrums” will be very happy campers over the next few years as the European financial crisis plays out. Will there be ups and downs, of course, there always are, but I agree with the principle of “buying on dips” you can only sell HIGH if you bought low!

    6. Chris S.
      Jun 8 2012, 03:31:30 am

      I am only holding physical gold & silver now. A couple of months back I traded 4 oz. of American Eagles for 174 oz. of silver (94 {1oz.} Austrian Philharmonics & 16 {5 oz.} America the Beautiful commemoratives. What aggravates me about the metals market is the way the big banks are allowed to illegally collude to short silver and/or gold by using paper dirivatives that represent more of the metals than actually exists above ground. Anyway, just had to get that gripe off of my chest. I am extremely interested in starting very small but buying into silver stocks because I believe, without the “usual suspects” shorting it with paper, it would be much higher now.

    7. John Cimaroli
      Jun 8 2012, 10:51:18 am

      Bill, Tinka is my QMM. This Mc Coach piece ( i meet him and had a couple long conversations, and am now in touch with him on a regular basis) has beengoing on now for 3 months. Tinka has discovered, mined, made indian trinkets and done the whole nine yards. Their stock went from .30 to .70 and is now at .52, rifht where I bought it 3 years ago. Not sure what it will take to go to $3.00, (hellow Porsha). I have palsy in my fingers from keeping them crossed for so long. In any event,the purpose of my sharing this with you is to let you know that tis JR G/S game is not forthe faint of heart.

    8. Fritz Autenrieth
      Jun 9 2012, 04:29:30 am

      Thank you Stock-Gumshoe for your great contributions and excellent support for the learning process of investors! And thank you Myron Martin for your excellent, differenciated blog contribution above, that proves matured exterience.
      Before torturing ourselves with too many doubts beyond normal due dilligence and carefulness, I think we should not forget the terrible context in that the brave, hard working miners, explorers and risktaking investors operate. The context is organised crime on Wallstreet, in London and the Investmentbanking worldwide. Lets not forget what the greedy predator-apes have done to the finance markets and how they betray with their ever-leverage-hunting paper creations. Lets realize, what the corrupt power elite does with the preceous metal markets jointly with their printing-slaves at the FED : they systematically tried to devaluate gold and silver by shorting, trying to destory the mirror that shows the ugly face and results of their crimes. And now, sitting on all the shorts never to be delivered physically when reality will brutally expose their paper-lies, they cowardly escape to letting the government bailout them by taking over their exposures under emergency-regulations (newest laws for the saving of the 150 times overpapered commodity markets and exchanges).
      One day reality will hit back and will show the truth and the manipulators
      will be exposed and the poor investorts getting wothless newly printed $s for their calls instead of gold and silver will focus their anger on the responsible banksters and politicians.

      But the serious, brave miners and investors will benefit from their results of work, risk-taking, proficiency and patience once the metals markets will be cleaned from organised crime in a joint effort of China, India, Mexico, Canada and the Swiss that will end manipulated markets.
      Take care if you’re out in the markets and “keep you boots muddy”
      Good luck!

    9. KJ
      Jun 10 2012, 03:56:59 pm

      I think these Jr. miners are interesting but can’t get over the feeling that investing in Jr miners isn’t much different than buying a lotto ticket. If you think silver is going up why not just invest in SLV?

    10. Timothy Brannan
      Jul 16 2012, 01:38:29 am

      I bought a “junior gold miner” stock that I had tracked for some time. I watched it fall to a level which I considered to be a buying opportunity. The stock was even being pumped on CNBC after I purchhased it. Subsequently, I was smart enough to write the covered call. It held it’s ground for a while and the buyout rumors even supported it. However, when it tanked, it dove like a submarine under attack. Also, I bought PAAS at a low point not realizing the Argentina implications. It fell some more too. My take: Buy a quality company which has a history of paying a dividend and can support it’s dividend. SLW should be an okay buy and hold too. However, like Chris S. stated, “hold the physical gold and / or silver if you are financially able. I have 3 safety deposit boxes full. I hope that one day in the future when I’m gone, a blood relative will open the boxes and say, “dang – he wasn’t an idiot after all”! Great luck to all.

      • Jack Russell
        Jan 20 2013, 06:33:39 pm

        Three safety deposit boxes full corresponds to my personal level of confidence in precious metals, but the use of safety deposit boxes does NOT. For all the same reasons that I have a great deal of my personal worth invested in physical silver and gold, the idea of having it behind the locked doors of an institution that the government can liquidate and have control over all contents as security against the debt keeps me much more dedicated to finding more clever and readily available methods of storage of much of what I have invested in.

      • Ispy
        May 25 2013, 12:06:57 pm

        Based on what’s going on w.r.t. banks and safety deposit boxes are you still comfortable having anything of value in them? Fwiw, I wouldn’t be.

    11. Kenneth Shonk
      Jul 26 2012, 04:29:33 pm

      TK is probably failrly valued right now. Junior exploration stock prices move on three things 1) overall upward momentum in Au and Ag prices, 2) good drilling results that imply the potential for significant expansion in measureed and indicated resources which prompts speculation on further resource expansion, and 3) anticipation of buy out bids. Most junior explorers are in the business of developing an asset and selling it to a producing company. So the question is, “Is the resource TK has developed large enough to generate a take-out offer or JV with a producer?” In my opinion, not yet. A 20 Moz Ag resource or even a 35Moz Ag resource is unlikely to generate a bid from a major producing company (PAAS, SSRI, CDE, Penoles, Buenaventura, Hochschild). The bigger producers want resources of or demonstrated potential for 200 Moz as in SSRI’s deal for Orko Silver (OK.V). Stocks of exploration companies with production ambitions usually get selling pressure as they go through the conversion process and the stock then start moving up once they get within 3-6 months of production. Existing producer also begin moving up 3-6 months prior to major expansions of production or go down on investor disappointment in producition delays in new project (assuming Au and Ag prices are not in major uptrends or downtrends). The long sell off in all gold and silver exploration and production stocks, however, has a macroeconomic origin,

    12. silver is forever
      Jul 30 2012, 07:03:49 am

      “The news from Aurcana (AUNFF) is too good to be true (gold in the dore bars). A geologist friend thinks something is very fishy; Lenic may be trying to ramp up interest and sales to fund another project. Salting the mine is not nice. Tired of six months of yo-yoing, I sold all of it yesterday”. Tin Ear

      The gold mineralization at the Presidio mine site is an historic fact so it is not surprising that Shafter would have gold present in some of their ore.
      Lenic has sold his shareholders off to institutions when all he had to do was fund La Negra’s expansion.He has 30 million plus dollars in the bank with LN nearing 3 million oz of Ag eq production on an annualized basis.
      That is monthly gross cashflow from 250,000 silver oz per month at $17 today – costs of say $10 per oz = $4.25 million /month.
      Shafter will announce production status in July-we are told.That means they are operating at 1,500 tonnes per day or the 3.8 million oz production rate.
      3.8 M oz Ag x $18 (cash costs are $8.70 per oz at Shafter / 12 months is another $5.7 million per month.
      With 30 million dollars in the bank,warrants and ten million dollars of gross cashflow per month at 15 month lows in the silver price AUN is well positioned to purchase a 100 million dollar property and pay it off within a year’s time.
      Shafter’s total costs to purchase and put it into production was roughly 100 million dollars.
      You got tired as a share flipper.Don’t compare your being an impatient flipper with fundamentals of either silver or AUN.

    13. Shaun Haskins
      Aug 21 2012, 04:17:41 pm

      There is a miner in southern Peru named Bearcreek, BCEKF, that appears to be sitting on a LARGE mountain of silver. Possibly worth checking out. Go to bearcreekmining.com. Appears viable. I get fliers in the mail pushing small oil companies for usually under $ 2.00 a share and when you wait 2 months to check on the price it is anywhere from 7 to 30 cents a share. Hype it up. We hav to watch this touting. Rarely pans out.

    14. Myron Martin
      Myron Martin
      Aug 21 2012, 05:17:49 pm

      Having proven resources as Bearcreek does is not of an by itself proof that the company is a good investment. While I haven’t followed the company lately enough to express an opinion as to its current viability anyone contemplating buying this stock needs to do some very in-depth due diligence and certainly not rely one any one hyped promotion based on partial facts.

      The simplified perspective that it has fallen so far it MUST be a bargain is a TRAP that many unsophisticated investors fall into with a little push from unscrupulous promoters. It matters not how many millions of oz’s may be PROVEN in the ground if you can not profitability mine them, whether you can’t get the necessary finances to develop a mine or just can’t get it licensed, are in danger of expropriation by a socialist or just plain greedy government or excessive taxation that makes it uneconomic to develop, you need to get all the available facts and even then maintain a healthy dose of scepticism about possible unknowns or misleading or incomplete information a clever promoter may use to entice new investors into a dog he is holding. Bearcreek MAY someday become viable, but that day has not arrived yet, unless some very recent factor has come to light that I am not yet aware of. Proceed with great caution on this one.

    15. Neil M Campbell
      Aug 21 2012, 05:56:12 pm

      This isn’t Vegas! Patience is the key gentlemen. The gld/slv charts are coiled like a snake ready to strike.
      Wait for market confirmation. Sept. and early Oct. should provide market insight. If the Germans refuse to bail southern Europe put on your life jackets.

      • Egidio Guarini
        Oct 5 2013, 03:07:36 pm

        You do realise that the USA and Britain PRINT trillions of worthless paper Dollars and Pounds? You do realise that Britain’s debt is greater than the combined Debt of the Southern Europe Countries you refer to? What the Southern European Countries can NOT do is PRINT worthless PAPER Euros. If they could, maybe some would. I can talk for Italy only. The people voted in a Referendum to pay MORE taxes to enable their Country to be in the 1st Phase of the Nations Joining the Euro. Wasn’t it FIAT (ITALIAN) that saved GM and Chrysler? The whole idea of the the European Union was /is to prevent a certain nation from start WWIII.
        If you knew anything about Europe you would know that the whole idea behind a Unified Europe :
        1. Would prevent wars. This has been the longest period in the history of Europe without wars. The previous (now 2nd longest period) was during the Rule of Caesar Augustus.
        2. Financial Equalisation between Nations. I lived in Ireland during the “Celtic Tiger Period in the late 1990’s and for every Euro Ireland put into Europe, Ireland got back 2 Euros from Europe. The Rocky Road to Dublin is no more. It’s 4 lanes was was funded by the rest of Europe. Within one generation, instead of walking shoeless to school, the children of Ireland were driven to school by their mums’ in their Land Rovers. Then the Celtic Tiger Died and Ireland had to be rescued again. Unless you know something I don’t, Ireland is an Island to the west of Britain, or has it drifted to Southern Europe?
        3. The vast majority of Germans understand (as proven by the recent elections) that a Germany outside of Europe is inconceivable.

        I guess I should turn to Shares? My two bobs worth is to keep an eye on MML.L Bought at £1.00, sold at £1.59, Rebought at £1.24. (Yes, I have shares obviously, but don’t buy until I have bought some more 😉 This is my 1st post, so please forgive any thing i have written which may be out of order.
        PS: I have also spent 6 months in Italy, exploring from the North to the South and I did not see one inch of Earth that was not in production. In the South (the Amalfi Coast) lemon trees are planted on the cliff face.

        • 191 |
          Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
          Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
          Oct 6 2013, 09:03:51 am

          Always interesting to get views from outside America, so welcome aboard.
          You said: “What the Southern European Countries can NOT do is PRINT worthless PAPER Euros.” and my response would be, but they can certainly spend them irresponsibly!
          The simple fact is the whole experiment with “fiat currency” since Nixon took us of the gold standard in 1971 has proven to be a colossal failure because there is no longer any checks or balances to keep politicians and bankers colluding to create currency out of thin air.
          I say currency because I do not want to dignify their irresponsibility by calling worthless creations MONEY when it is in reality nothing more than legalized counterfeiting!
          Unfortunately having a common currency does NOT a United Europe make. There are to many cultural, political and national differences and the EURO would not survive without Germany, so your expressed goal can not be achieved without complete integration of all the countries involved, which is highly unlikely.
          Looks like you made a good buy and sell decision, name of the company would have helped, assume the “L” means the london Exchange or is it Lisbon? Heh, could use some of those lemons to make lemonade if the market turns sour.

    16. Kojak
      Sep 6 2012, 10:38:43 am

      Bear Creek Mining fell drastically because the Peruvian government withdrew the licence Bear Creek had obtained (people 250 miles south of their new mine barricaded roads, etc because they believed the mine would poison the environment. BC are taking legal action against the Peruvian government. Who knows ….

    17. Slick Rick
      Sep 18 2012, 04:13:13 pm

      Six magic words ” Fool and his Money soon parted”
      If ya want a good BIO Pharma on the NASDAQ and not some PUMPED crap OTCBB , Pink or Canadian LOOK into ANTH …… BIG MONEY can be made with this one …..not some pipe dream crap! Do your own research on ANTH!

    18. Cathy
      Oct 3 2012, 08:53:48 am

      Speculating to me is like fishing, the thrill the bite ,the sweet words fish on, your senses go to a new level, the words call over to you don’t let him turn keep the line taught and everyone who has used that word has a different meaning then you hear get the net easy he’s seen us he’s making a run keep the line taught new meaning now ,new senses also don’t let him got the net right here, turn good job you got him boy it’s a big one how can you tell the water is so dark cause it is heavy oh yeh gotta be keeper heavy , oh my gosh got him it’s a turtle yeh a turtle you hooked hi in the back leg, I knew it was heavy well cut him loose, heck no that fishing guide said 3 dollars if we catch him a turtle. Back at camp guide says you got turtle good here’s your 3 dollars Canadian ,guide gives turtle to son tell mom to cook hey how did that fancy finder fish thing work seen lots of fish they just where not biting, guide says no fish in lake just turtles good eating you did not want a guide cause of new finder a fish box, just turtles here you don,t see any little ducks , but we wanted some fish but you did not want guide I wold have got some fish, where are they, you want guide now yes we want guide . W e eat good fresh turtle then catch fish. After lunch and rest guide says we go catch fish now get your truck about 1an half mile down road lake has lots fish we go now, but why do you camp on this lake well he says like turtle soup, then they go catch lots of fish . Know your geologist well or turn many locals especially when playing with local dirt and the local land! (NYSE) SAND , PPP, PZG, TGW AND LOTS OF DUE DILIGENCE.

    19. Alison Olson
      Nov 27 2012, 02:30:29 pm

      Travis, this is a thank you for your insights. You have actually saved me hundreds of dollars. You give me “the other side of the story”. I tend to get caught up in a well-written , rosy view newsletter teaser. I need the voice of reason and you provide that for me. Thank you so much. Alison

    20. Cyril Fletcher
      Dec 8 2012, 10:14:21 pm

      Everyone will have noticed the gold buying establishments that are sprouting up all over the place and funny enough in every country.
      When you quiz them as to how much they are paying for your bent or broken gold its a fraction of what the current at the time price for gold is, everyone should be concerned about this as the poor working class are being stiffed monumentally on this scam, and come the 1st of January 2013 all will be revealed to that unsuspecting general public.
      We are going back to the gold standard, all banks and governments will be required to hold gold in their vaults, and so the banks are vacuming up the loose gold out there from said public, if they were to openly buy on the international market the price would go thru the roof as it will post 1st January. As it is the gold buying by variouse governments has seen the price go up to $1700 an ounce and the projections are post January $8000 eitht thousand an ounce, so if you have broken bent gold, its still gold and at the moment $1700.
      Think what will happen in say Greece or Spain with 25% unemployment and the people who have let their gold go for peanuts, when the 1st january happens and they realize theyve been had by the banks once again, to say revolution would be putting it mildly, and to know that the Establishment in variouse countrys has been in the know and quietly taking advantage of this inside knowledge, were in for some very interesting times.

      • Andy Smailes
        Jan 4 2013, 06:14:30 am

        McCoach is seriously out in his melodramatic calls for silver to go higher. When it approached $50 dollars a year or so ago he was shrieking for it to double in a month. I question what his own holdings are.

        • Jack Russell
          Jan 20 2013, 07:16:54 pm

          He was early. But time will tell how prescient he is. Of course, you don’t have to be a seer to figure out that gold and silver have quite a run ahead of them. All you have to do is look around and see if anyone is printing ‘money’ out of thin air.

          • McCoach is a liar
            Mar 4 2013, 02:22:31 pm

            true but there is timing then theres timing. We all ultimately know the price will rise with time but a broken clock is right twice a day. He needs to qualify a timeframe

    21. WILLIAM
      Mar 24 2013, 01:03:30 pm

      BUY PHYSICAL ON DIPS. I feel relatively certain that holding an ounce in your hand is much better than buying a stock in a country that could nationalize reserves in the ground and leave you with nothing. The added costs in smelting will also weigh heavy on the miners as we go forward. Inflation, which is what is needed to advance precious metals, will also cause energy cost to advance increasing the production costs that limit the profit margins on even the most efficient miners. Of all the paper mining investments I would only choose one with a royalty program like Silver Wheaton where the cost of mining has less of an influence on company profits.

    22. Jan
      Jun 1 2013, 10:23:22 am

      Just had to say “Thank you” once again for saving me from jumping into a subscription that was useless (have many of them) Keep up the good work .

    23. Bosko
      Jun 27 2013, 09:51:16 am

      Great site guys. I have a pretty good junior mining stock pick myself. I have gone the whole 9 yards on this little baby. TAG OIL. They have hit Black Gold in New Zealand. They have 11 wells and counting. I certainly think this small mining company is going places. All the best of luck to all you Savy investers. Lol From OZ

    24. Myron Martin
      Myron Martin
      Jun 27 2013, 10:15:01 am

      Nice to get confirmation from a local re TAG OIL, see my article coming out to-morrow for the irregulars re N. Zealand black gold. Not to be outdone, will be profiling a great Canadian pick with natural gas holdings that are highly profitable even if price retreats to $3. range.

      • 191 |
        Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
        Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
        Oct 1 2013, 05:41:00 pm

        TINKA is not back, it never left. The promo from McCoach has been running for years with very little change. I agree with an earlier commenter that McCoach needs to quantify his timing, but in fairness, the last 18 months are unprecedented as a market experience.
        The KEY is separating company fundamentals from market sentiment. Junior miners have to be assessed very differently from the way establishment analysts rate regular stocks. McCoach is very good at identifying early stage stocks, but it takes a lot of patience and sometimes nimble trading to realize profits when the market is as fickle as it has been the past 18 months. These are essentially “trading vehicles” as opposed to buy and hold stocks you may find in dividend paying long established profitable companies. There will be some very happy campers when Tinka finally gets developed into a mine, but it may take a great deal of patience to see that day, and maybe some “sitting out time” at various stages of its development. Sone very astute analysts other than McCoach see a potential for a deposit reaching several hundred million oz. of silver, and WHEN (not if) the market turns positive those holding a few thousand shares at to-days prices will be happy campers indeed.

    25. Bosko
      Oct 1 2013, 02:34:56 am

      Beware of the Wolf in Sheeps Clothing. Always do your own research & be very careful of any pump & dump stocks. Beware of any patterns in any newsletters that seem to pump these stocks. Those who read more know more. Knoledge is priceless$$$$$

      • 191 |
        Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
        Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
        Oct 1 2013, 05:50:48 pm

        I think the most important thing you said was; “Those who read more know more.” but having recommended TAG OIL myself 6 weeks or so ago, the fact remains that any stock in the junior field in particular can make a U turn in either direction and frequently do so!
        Any stock you want to talk about, somebody will be cursing an analyst because their TIMING was not perfect, even though the stock itself may pay off big IF it is bought at the right price and also SOLD at a profit when available instead of hanging on indefinitely.

        • Bosko
          Oct 2 2013, 05:40:26 am

          That’s very true. Tag Oil first got my attention when it was at just $2.73. I think their is alot potentional in this little baby.

    26. Alan Coburn
      Oct 5 2013, 10:39:44 am

      just got back from peru again amazon jungle. you people do a wonderful service but there’s always a but. why would you promote a person like mc coach he belongs in prison for the people he’s misled.
      ps i even looked for him in mirsflores the only real safe place outside of lima. i should have gone to the markets to see if anybody was in trying to sharpen darts
      al coburn
      ps i have a couple of sreen doors for sale for submarines call me after you try them if they don’t work i’ll even pick up the shipping

    27. Bosko
      Oct 6 2013, 01:59:24 am

      First of all. Who the hell is mc? & i dont need any submarines screen doors. But a millon dollars would be nice. I do my own research on these stocks & i believe that Tag Oil is on the right track but dont take my word for it. People should always do their own research. I have been watching this stock for well over 6 months. Like the old saying goes. Its not all gold that shines. One thing i got taught was never trust politions & ceos large coperations.

    28. 191 |
      Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
      Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
      Oct 6 2013, 07:54:32 am

      I don’t disagree with anything you have said, McCoach is largely irrelevant, it is really the fundamentals of the company that actually count, and those who have done their homework are probably the ones who found a good entry point and have made money with Tinka.
      The disgruntled analyst bashers are probably the ones who invested blindly on a glowing report that failed to evaluate market sentiment at the time, or they did not have the patience to hold until the thesis was proven up. As for screen doors for submarines, there is a product on the market than you can spray on screen doors to make them waterproof, their ads even show them sailing a leaky rowboat with a screen door sprayed with their product as a patch.

    29. 191 |
      Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
      Myron Martin, Special to Stock Gumshoe
      Oct 13 2013, 04:41:40 pm

      Have done a little further research given all the comments on McCoach and Tinka:
      There has been quite a bit of chatter on the website about Greg McCoach and his Tinka recommendation and I see a tendency to focus in with a very narrow and short term view while ignoring the BIG PICTURE. I have been stressing that investors need to separate company fundamentals from current market sentiment, while holding a long term view!
      In hockey terms, Wayne Gretzky’s perspective of skating to where the play is going rather than where it is, and by analogy that is what we as investors need to do, anticipate the play and position ourselves for profit. In fairness to Greg McCoach I think he has precisely that kind of perspective and here is some excerpts from an interview where he expresses his frustration with the current situation as well as I could myself.
      I can find little fault in his perspective, he acquits himself very well, and neither do I disagree with his stock picks and evaluations, I hold most of them myself, but not on his recommendation except for Tinka, others I planned on profiling when I see a good buy point for the ones still on my watch list.

      “TGR: You have recommended that investors reduce their portfolios “to just a few of the highest quality stocks as we await the recovery.” What are the criteria that determine the highest quality stocks?
      GM: Companies with plenty of cash on hand that don’t need to raise money right now. It is almost impossible to raise money in this sector at this juncture. Look for companies that are producing from high-grade projects with low costs, companies that will make money even if gold and silver go down further from current levels.

      Even with companies like these, there is always something making things more difficult. There are a lot of great companies I like in Mexico, where the politicians are trying to change the laws to charge more taxes. Politicians have an insatiable appetite for other people’s money. It will affect companies in Mexico with low-grade projects to the point it may force them out of business.

      TGR: When do you think the market will turn around?

      GM: Things are not going to get better at least until 2014, and in the meantime a lot of juniors hanging by their fingernails are going to go out of business. That will solidify the market for the survivors. Maybe that is as it should be. I do believe that monies we’ve lost in this sector in the last two years can quickly be made up if investors maintain a position, or build positions, during these low times in the highest quality companies. Because when the market does recover, it is going to be a screamer.”

      These are only a few paragraphs from a lengthy interview you can find @ http://resourceinvestingnews.com/62055-greg-mccoach-says-keep-the-best-and-dump-the-rest.html?pmc=E-1&MyID=utakeprofits@gmail.com&utm_source=Resource+Investing+News&utm_campaign=ab3e54dd9b-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83d87db0f-ab3e54dd9b-248816849

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