“The Battle for the 3rd Element” Money Map

Solved: Lithium Stock Teaser from Horacio Marquez

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 8, 2009

Well, again we’re talking electric cars — today’s teaser from Horacio Marquez for his Money Map VIP Trader newsletter ($995 — “on sale,” naturally) is all about the coming crunch of demand for the “3rd element” as electric cars take center stage and dramatically increase prices for this critical battery ingredient.

And yes, the “3rd element” reallly is third — it is, as Marquez eventually tells us, Lithium, which is right after Hydrogen and Helium on the periodic table, and is the lightest metal on earth. It’s also a key ingredient in Lithium-Ion batteries of various types, including most commonly the rechargeable cell phone and laptop batteries that have boosted lithium demand over the past decade or so.

But the real big demand, many expect, will be from electric vehicles. Every teaser for any lithium-related company, whether those that make the batteries or those that “mine” the raw material, uses similar projections of ten to twenty pounds of lithium carbonate per car battery (versus a couple of ounces, at most, for most consumer electronics batteries), and if you boost the numbers up from the current paltry levels to a million cars, or to two or three million over the next five years, the demand increases dramatically.

Which ought to be good for these businesses, no?

What Marquez is teasing for us here is a lithium producer, not a battery maker — which does make some basic sense, if the price of lithium spikes the battery makers, who face a lot more competition than the lithium producers, will be squeezed from both sides (by higher input prices, and by competition). That’s not to say that there isn’t some potential competition in the lithium mine space, too, as new projects get developed to take advantage of rising prices, but it’s certainly far more limited.

So … there are a few major lithium producers, and a number more of nascent producers and exploration companies that are trying to develop lithium resources — which one is Marquez teasing?

Let me share with you just a taste of his intro, first, to get you salivating a little bit:

“The 3rd element will soon siphon off $10.4 TRILLION in oil revenues…and replace 148 billion barrels of black gold…

“The U.S. government is quietly spending billions to control this rare substance as a matter of national and economic security…

“Early-in investors could turn every $10,000 into $290,400….

“I simply had to find out for myself what could possibly be worth $10 trillion…

“And after a mind-numbing 26-hour journey, I’ve finally arrived.

“The terrain stretching out before me is staggeringly surreal…

“A desolate moonscape covering 1,800 square miles, 50 times drier than Death Valley. Punishing solar radiation fries unprotected human flesh in minutes.

“Why did I come here?

“For one very simple reason:

“This windswept sea of white holds the key to the world’s energy needs for the next 50 years.

“Locked beneath its surface are millions of tons of a rare element with the capability of replacing 148 billion barrels of oil. Or more.

“Already, this wonder element is the most sought-after – and fought-over – commodity on the planet.”

Good stuff, eh? Though we should, of course, throw a teensy little wrench in — this doesn’t in any way get rid of the earth’s demand for fuel, electric vehicles would arguably be much more efficient energy consumers than gasoline-powered cars, but the energy to charge those batteries still has to come from somewhere. And since China and the US are the world’s largest sources of demand for personal car transportation, it seems awfully likely that a large portion of the electricity that powers these electric cars will come from … burning coal. Still, creating and distributing energy in central locations is bound to be much more efficient than a country with millions of little power plants (gasoline powered car engines).

But anyway, we can make the argument that lithium can undercut OPEC to some degree — and, perhaps more importantly for Marquez’s teaser, we can argue that the lithium market right now has something akin to an OPEC of controlling companies that keep a good handle on pricing.

So which one of these companies is Marquez teasing?

“It All Comes Down To ONE Company

“One company controls 30% of the world’s proven reserves of this rare element.

“More importantly, it owns claims on the highest quality and most cost-effectively refined reserves of this element.
Already, this dynamo of a firm controls 50% of the world market for this little appreciated substance.

“These advantages give this one firm a huge head start over virtually every other competitor in the world in the battle to control the 3rd Element.

“Clearly, the opportunity for early investors is almost beyond calculation.

“Just in the next 90-120 days, investors in this most precious commodity could see gains of 100% as the world market for this substance shoots past $90 billion.

“By the time the big positions are staked out and the wealth carved up, early in investors could see every $10,000 invested turn into as much as $290,400.

“And as with oil before it, the biggest winners will be those who control the most and best reserves. And that’s where this small gem of a company comes in.

“Early investors in this relatively small and unknown company could be the biggest of the big winners in the race to control the 3rd Element, destined to become the “new oil” of the 21st century. ”

And then we start to get slightly more specific …

“This Small Firm Will Turn The Energy World On Its Head

“We’ve already seen the inevitability of lithium’s rise to energy dominance …and the inevitability of stratospheric lithium price rises.

“But here’s why this one firm could capture the lion’s share of the boodle…

* “It owns 30% of the world’s known lithium reserves…

* “It controls 50% of the world’s market for lithium products…

* “It’s the only major American lithium producer…

“In fact, despite what you may think you know about producing lithium, this American firm owns reserves in the one spot on earth with nearly five and a half times more recoverable lithium than any other place!

“This last point bears repeating…”5½ times more recoverable lithium than any other place”… because it’s key to this company’s dominance and profitability.

“Sitting On The Mother Lode of Lithium

“In this one spot, there are only two operating lithium mines, and they are quietly pumping 70% of the world’s raw lithium out of the ground…

“But here’s the deal… not all lithium is created equal… nor is all lithium equally profitable to refine.

“To simplify, large concentrations of lithium are found in only two forms – spodumene and brine.

“Spodumene is underground ore. It has to be painstakingly extracted, and meticulously dried and processed with harsh chemicals like sulfuric acid before it can be refined into the fine powder used in batteries.

“All of this takes a lot of money.

“On the other hand, brine-based lithium is easily accessible. It forms in large pools laying 90-130 feet under the surface of gigantic salt beds. After it’s sucked to the surface, evaporation transforms it from light yellow slush into raw lithium.

“The merciless sun – right here where I’m standing – does all the work! So the cost of mining lithium brine is less than half the cost of extracting spodumene ore.

“Where others pay $2,400 a ton to extract lithium…our tiny company pays a mere $1,200 a ton. And as the price of lithium shoots skyward, this cost advantage – and profits – will increase exponentially!”

And out final clue, in the P.S.:

“Just as I was finishing this letter, President Obama announced he’s releasing another $2.4 billion in funds to jump start production of electric cars, including an outright grant of $29 million to our little-known company.”

That grant was announced in August (all the electric drive recipients are listed here, just FYI), it was actually for $28.4 million, and it went to Chemetall Foote, which is a lithium producer that’s owned by the stock that Marquez must be teasing today …

Rockwood Holdings (ROC)

Rockwood is, through its Chemetall subsidiary, one of the largest lithium producers in the world — along with FMC Lithium and the big daddy of them all, Chile’s SQM. Rockwood and SQM are the two companies who are producing lithium carbonate from the brine pools beneath the Atacama desert in the Chilean Andes, the world’s largest single source for lithium and the lowest cost production site.

And it’s that Salar de Atacama site that Marquez must be talking about, the one he visited that was horrifically inhospitable to all forms of life (nothing but sun, heat, and salt). This is indeed one of the world’s largest reserves of lithium, which is much cheaper to produce from these salt brines than from mined ore (they just pump up the brine and let it evaporate in large pools in the sun, then truck off the concentrate for refining). There are other major salt brine resources in the world, but SQM and Rockwood are the only ones actively producing a major resource like this, as far as I know.

The largest lithium resource in the world, by the way, is not too far away from the Atacama — it’s in a similar salt brine resource in Bolivia called the Salar de Uyuni. Estimates say that this one resource, currently almost completely untapped, represents about 50% of the world’s known lithium. There are many folks who would like to produce this lithium in Bolivia, but Bolivia is extremely anti-foreign-investment right now, arguably with good reason (they’ve got a long history of being exploited), so while the Bolivian government would like to build their own lithium mining operation at Uyuni, there’s no guessing as to how long it will take them to do so without foreign expertise or investment … or whether they’ll end up being a large producer at all.

But in the meantime, Rockwood and SQM are the only two producers in the largest producing lithium “mining” area (it’s really more “pumping” than “mining”), and this tease certainly seems to be for Rockwood, a US company, not for SQM, a Chilean agricultural powerhouse that’s primarily a fertilizer firm, despite the fact that they produce more lithium carbonate than Rockwood. (Incidentally, Potash Corp of Saskatchewam owns about a third of SQM — they tried to take it over at one point — so that’s yet another way to get some lithium exposure in a North American investment, as long as you really want lots of fertilizer exposure, too.)

Incidentally, Chemetall Foote, the lithium production investment of Rockwood Holdings, was one of the lithium pioneers … they were the ones who were mining in North Carolina decades ago, and who helped to discover the lithium brine process of cheaper production in Nevada and, later (and on a much larger scale) in Chile. They are also a major refiner of lithium, developing and selling new lithium-based oxides and hydrides and whatever else they call all that stuff that I don’t understand. The division is now generally called Chemetall Lithium, though Rockwood’s web of interconnected firms gets a little confusing, and they have a good background on lithium production and projected demand here if you’re interested. They’re even setting up a pilot plant for recycling lithium ion batteries, which might end up being a big deal someday (as with many other batteries, a lot of the raw material is still potentially usable after the battery is no longer functioning).

So … how about Rockwood Holdings as an investment? This is not just a lithium company, more of a broad specialty chemicals and materials company (you can get a quick overview of their major businesses and end markets here). In fact, in their last earnings press release they didn’t even use the word “lithium” — though it’s obviously one of their important products and it is usually covered in detail on the conference calls (you can read the Q1 transcript here, for Q2 (the most recent report and call) you’ll have to listen, no transcript available — the recording is available here).

They are marginally profitable as of the last quarter, and as a chemical supplier to many industries they “enjoyed” a dip in demand for many of their products during the economic slowdown (profit last quarter was down 98%, they saw no clear recovery but also said demand was “stabilizing”) — analysts do expect them to report a better profit next year, however, giving them a forward estimated PE of about 18.

They carry a lot of debt (not necessarily shocking for a chemical producer), which may be part of the reason that they got truly hammered in the market crash, with a low in March of about $4 (they have been extending their debt maturities recently, so I haven’t seen anyone who’s particularly worried about their debt right now). They have already recovered nicely from there to the current price of about $18, thanks in part to the resurgence of interest in lithium companies following all the battery buzz for firms like A123 and Warren Buffett’s coattail-rider BYD. The shares were actually quite a bit higher a couple weeks ago, up around $23, but took a solid hit when SQM cut prices.

And of course, Rockwood is not exactly a top secret company — they were even on the CBS Evening News a while back (this is where you can insert your snarky remark about how something that appeared on CBS would still be unknown to most of the country).

If you’re interested in smaller companies and “junior” producers of lithium that are more directly leveraged just to lithium prices (and, one would have to imagine, also much riskier investments), there was a great interview with a lithium analyst by the folks at the Gold Report a couiple weeks ago that’s worth a read, it names some of the more interesting junior lithium players, including a couple in Bolivia, and has a good overview of that analyst’s view of the lithium market.

Oh, and as with all things — the economy matters. lithium prices are still high by historic standards, and may well climb dramatically higher in the decades to come, as Marquez clearly believes … but the latest move in pricing by SQM, which helps to control the world market, was a cut in prices for this year’s contracts. Perhaps this is just like OPEC keeping prices low enough to spur demand and build a market, and to discourage the development of new, competing lithium resources … but it also may mean that windfall profits are not exactly right around the corner for these firms, so, as always, patience is probably a virtue when investing in any of the lithium companies. They may well take over the world, but it probably won’t be this week.


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47 Comments on "“The Battle for the 3rd Element” Money Map"

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Timothy
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Timothy
October 8, 2009 12:12 pm

ROC gapped down more than 20% last week when Citigroup downgraded it (after the SQM 20% price reduction). Since then it’s bounced back about halfway, but I won’t be going long until it has finished filling that gap–it needs to close above 20.07 before I feel safe enough to invest.

michael murphy
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michael murphy
October 8, 2009 1:59 pm

y bother with lithium when hydrogen is the most abundant element n universe hydr power is way 2 go but they cant corner the market /money/greed hydr burns clean how much cleaner/greener can u get???????????????

Scottie
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Scottie
October 8, 2009 2:34 pm

Marquez sees pie in the sky when he talks aout ROC having 5/1-2 times the world´s suply of lithium. Chile has 3.6 million tons and (per the USGS in the USA) Bolivia has 5.5 million ton or more than 50 percent of the world reserves.

Brian Martin
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Brian Martin
October 8, 2009 2:42 pm
I’m a bit surprised by his description of this as a relatively small company given that Chemetall had revenues of around a billion last year and the conglomerate has a market cap over one billion. A couple of points. First, is that as a conglomerate it likely (haven’t done the math but it is usually the case) trades at a discount to its enterprise value and would not unlock the full value of the Lithium play without a spinoff of the lithium business. The rest of the business units would undoubtedly act as drag on the leverage that a pure… Read more »
andrew citsay
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andrew citsay
October 8, 2009 8:18 pm
dear gumshoe…great piece on lithium leading to a surprise for me..i coulda swore you were about to uncover american lithium(AMLM) which has full rights to 16000 acres in nevada recently touted as the 2nd largest battery grade lithium reserve in the world!!same type..close to surface brine..easy to extract…delivery advantages (time & cost) for us & canadian users such as GM constructing a lithium battery plant to supply the needs of the chevy volt..$10000 invested in AMLM will quickly grow to $45000 per this other guru….i’m new to your service gumshoe and find it unique,fun,very informative..just top notch….many thanks for your… Read more »
Mike
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Mike
October 8, 2009 9:29 pm

CHINA SUN GRP HIGHTE – CSGH – Lithium Ion Phosphate battery – new technology. This Co has lots of room to grow – Already up 100% Originally heard about it HERE. Do your DD.

vaag
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vaag
October 9, 2009 10:12 am

Lithium type batteries are extremely expensive and just a flash in the pan for powering cars. Good old lead-acid work just fine. Top notch web site.

alfonso
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alfonso
October 9, 2009 10:21 am

I believe this company is WESTERN LITHIUM CDA (WLCDF.PK). In the report it states “This Small Firm Will Turn The Energy World On Its Head”, therefore I believe the comany is Western Lithium. Look at the action over the past few days.

mayumi
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October 9, 2009 10:55 am

A good penny stock pick can generate 500% and even more in a very short time frame. It is much easier for penny stocks to appreciate than blue chip stocks.

Stan
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Stan
October 18, 2009 4:54 pm

2 or 3 days ago I heard a report on a radio news program which said… A new battery which can last 1,000’s of hours is being developed in Isreal… That the technology will work from flashlights to cars… Anyone know about that??

Amish Rake Fighter
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Amish Rake Fighter
October 20, 2009 7:38 pm

That lithium in South America is at 10 000 feet with extremely limited transportation infrastructure to get it out of there down to the coast

It’s going to cost a lot of money and take years to come online

Jerry
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October 26, 2009 6:12 pm

Dear Money Morning Reader,

I can’t believe it’s almost over…

So much has happened in the last two weeks…

Just this morning, Horacio’s “3rd element” recommendation shot up another 8.8%.

But if you want access to this amazing company…

…plus Horacio’s other recommendations set to return 277% (broadband)…307% (China’s most unusual industry)…102% (an American staple)… 312% (Brazilian pulp giant)…and 487%

Anybody have an idea ??

Edward Walter
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Edward Walter
October 27, 2009 3:34 pm

A small US company,heavily involved in lithium is Rodinia Minerals (RM.tsx). Share price is about $0.40 Canadian. Lithium is produced from a brine in Clayton Valley, Nevada. Company also holds large uranium deposita and 2 permitted uranium mill sites with water purchase rights. Lithium has been produced in Cayton Valley since 1967.

keith
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keith
January 9, 2010 3:19 pm

you are the good

Kent Rylander
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January 10, 2010 5:23 pm

The company that Warren Buffet has invested in BYD, Build Your Dreams does manufacture batteries based on iron and they call it FE battery and claim it to be more efficient, cheaper and more recyclable then lithium-ion Cobalt based. se http://www.byd.com the specifications for the car is impressive.

bill
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bill
January 15, 2010 6:52 pm

real sleeper is WUC who holds a mitt full of WLC

IDBJLS2
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IDBJLS2
January 16, 2010 6:02 am

Other lithium plays that I know are LTUM (Lithium Minerals), BHWX (Black Hawk Exploration), and the best one that I know is LMRMF (Lomiko Metals). LMRMF has a bigger acreage brine lithium adjacent to SQM in Chile. The chinese Govt has put a stake in the company and it’s only trading @ $.10. Check it out! And good luck.

STEVEN SCHULTZ
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STEVEN SCHULTZ
January 16, 2010 9:17 am

Zinc fuel cells hold more promise like in products via PWAC but a bit further behind in commercialization. Zinc is fairly well available. I like the solid comments here.

Bill Moss
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Bill Moss
January 16, 2010 9:50 pm

How about Etna Resources Inc. to be renamed Pan American Lithium Corp., do not know much more than that. Perhaps someone else, like ooh, I don’t know, ah, Gumshoe maybe? Than again it might be a total loser!

Gerard Waters
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Gerard Waters
January 17, 2010 6:19 pm

Before anybody buys heavily into lithium mines or lithium battery producers , It might be wise to read John Peterson on seeking Alpha,who claims that Lithium battery technology as a viable option for transportation is at the very least five to ten years away ,and I agree with him.

Sat
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Sat
January 19, 2010 11:54 pm

Good reading….got to watch these teasers…..scam artists.

philip daykin
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philip daykin
January 21, 2010 7:48 pm

Believe Potash Saskachewan (POT.NYSE; POT.TSX} has a 20% interest in the Chilean Co. So shares in potash are also shares in lithium!
Do DD: Check POT annual reports.

Charles
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Charles
February 17, 2010 3:21 pm

Where is the info about Western Lithium WLCDF.PK. I typed in Western Lit.and it gave me info on ROC & SQM. Same industry wrong Company. I realize it’s dated back in October. Why the bait and switch? Check out Gumshoe searth engine and Type in Western Lithium

sapphire
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sapphire
February 26, 2010 3:20 am

Any tips on Gold ??

Ralph Armendariz
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Ralph Armendariz
May 9, 2010 8:59 pm

you can er text right here!

brian
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brian
October 11, 2010 4:06 pm

western lithium is hot right now

Bryan
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Bryan
November 2, 2010 4:42 pm

opinions on Pacific Coast Minerals

pennystock4me
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August 2, 2011 5:20 am

We should consider health care and pharma companies, ALLOS is one of those undervalued companies that has 300% upside potential from the current price which is $1.8 The right penny stock @ the right time appreciates far higher than any blue chip stock.

Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 8, 2009 2:35 pm

True enough, and he had a lot of qualifying words in there — but there are also plenty of folks who think the Bolivians will never get their act together to actually produce the lithium, we’ll see.

Robert Berke
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Robert Berke
October 9, 2009 3:38 pm

It’s true that Bolivia could be the Saudi Arabia of Lithium, but there are some big problems. A major one is that Bolivia reserves have a much higher ratio of element of Molyb. to Lith. than in Chili, sending refinement costs into the stratosphere. The other problem is Bolivia is rightly suspicious of outsiders and has not opened itself to companies with the technical experitize to develop reserves.

Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 8, 2009 2:39 pm

Indeed, but where do you get the hydrogen from? As far as I know all the current sources that might be economical are fossil fuels, with natural gas the most likely candidate — and extracting hydrogen can cause plenty of pollution on its own, even if the hydrogen itself can run “clean” in fuel cells.

I’m definitely no expert on fuel cells, but it does seem that for whatever reason the sentiment has swung pretty completely to batteries, at least for the next wave of transport technology.

Blind
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Blind
October 9, 2009 3:53 pm

How about several Sq.miles of nano-tech thin film solar cells floating on salt water. On a sunny day the H2 production would be large with plenty left over for its compression.

Steve
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Steve
October 11, 2009 7:57 am
Check out Bob Boyce for a low cost source of Hydrogen, actually HHO. More power than hydrogen alone. I’ts amazing to me that everyone has not used this by now. A testament to controlled media and horrific education. I have enjoyed the free info and the great time learning that the second law of thermodynamics has major flaws in it. That you actually have to participate to know that for yourself. Hook up with hydrogengarage.com or such to see for yourself. I really like Bendini technology, easy to do, fun, and getting energy from the environment is much cleaner. Look… Read more »
rini
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rini
December 15, 2009 2:11 am

Actually, H2O is H-OH. (ho,ho, ho). Now, here’s all you need to know about the Three Laws of Thermo:
First Law: You can’t win.
Second Law: Ya cain’t even break even.
Zero-th Law: You can’t get out of the game! (They discovered it last, but scientifically, it precedes the other two.)

You can’t get something for nothing, and there is no perpetual energy, except in a Ponzi engine (which runs a SCAM).

The rest is tough-sledding mathematics of work, energy, and entropy. BEEN THERE, DID IT.

rini
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rini
December 15, 2009 2:37 am
Gumshoe: You ask the question which nobody wants to consider (it’s obviously an inconvenient truth), and you are correct about where is the hydrogen going to come from (and how much energy will it take to create it). There is supposedly also a fuel cell which runs on natural gas directly, which creates water and “some” carbon dioxide. However, I think it has high temperature problems at this stage of development. But no one suggests fueling autos directly with natural gas, which would exhaust four parts water to one part carbon dioxide. That’s a lot less than the ration of… Read more »
rick386
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rick386
January 17, 2010 3:41 pm

Well, I think a renewable supply of energy such as solar could provide the electrical charge to separate the hydrogen from water. A pure electricity based energy system would promote this. The byproduct is O2 only. Hydrogen sounds like a great storage facility for energy, tanks only, no batteries. Imagine having a solar system with a water seperator on the side using your surplus daytime power production. Couple that with a hydrogen powered car, and you have no fuel costs of transportation.

Carding
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Carding
May 2, 2010 6:38 am
Where is the hydrogen to come from? I doubt the pumping techology is ready, but I was told twice by none other than Imelda Marcos (yes, THAT imelda Marcos — insert unfunny shoe joke here) that hydrogen can be extracted from heavy water, which occurs naturally at the pressures experienced at the bottom of the Pacific, in the Marianas and Philippine Trenches. She says she wants the United States and the Philippines to exploit this resource and together free the world from its dependence on fossil fuels. Sounds a bit farfetched, I know, but any educated views regarding the feasibility… Read more »
stockcrazy10
Irregular
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stockcrazy10
October 18, 2009 10:05 pm
IDBJLS2
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IDBJLS2
January 16, 2010 5:55 am

There is a battery-maker called Mphase Technologies, Inc. that has perfected the forevernano-battery that was showcased in the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas 7-10 Jan 2010. It won the Best Innovation Award They are still in the development stage for other applications i.e. car, laptop, cell phones, and misc devices. The symbol is XDSL. Good luck!

Rini
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Rini
December 15, 2009 1:53 am

The advantage of lithium batteries is the higher power density for the same overall weight, and a more rapid charge time. However, Lithium stocks are subject to the Ponzi Effect (Teasers attract suckers) … and stimulation money is part of the scam.

bgoody
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bgoody
January 15, 2010 9:34 pm

Yes natural gas is probably the most likely candidate for the step between gas and hydrogen. See CLNE for nat gas infastruture and WPRT for Truck engines and conversion and FSYS for nat gas conversion. CLNE and WPRT are closely tied to the Pickens plan and have had quite a run.

rick386
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rick386
January 17, 2010 3:42 pm

molybedenum has value also.

rick386
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rick386
January 17, 2010 4:47 pm
i agree, lead acid is great for home systems where storage and weight is not a problem. This year’s auto show featured a lot of electric cars. Don’t e surprised if this is the tip of the iceburg for lithium. The P/B ratios do make this a speculation play for sure. My advice would be to buy some call put spreads on the big overpriced companies and get some micros too. Bolinger bands indicate that a price fluctuation is coming for all 3 companies mentioned here. AMLM has fluctuated from 3 bucks to 50 cent to 1.50 now 1/15/2010. There… Read more »
Gravity Switch
Admin
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February 17, 2010 3:24 pm

I don’t think I’ve ever written about Western Lithium — the search just searches the text of all articles, comments, and the forum, so if something comes up for that search it’s been mentioned on those pages, probably by commenters (or perhaps in passing by me).

stockcrazy10
Irregular
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stockcrazy10
February 17, 2010 3:37 pm

If you’ve installed the appropriate toolbar you can find the Western Lithium reference in the article by left clicking on the EDIT function and selecting the ‘Find on this Page’ option.

stockcrazy10
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May 2, 2010 5:23 pm

The link above is no longer active…
Here's a working link… http://www.isracast.com/article.aspx?ID=1189&…

ktrepairs
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ktrepairs
June 17, 2010 12:30 am

what tool bar??

wpDiscuz