by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | May 9, 2014 4:15 pm
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Hi, Travis — You said about SODA that “. . . . I bought my (tiny) opening position at $41 and change, I’m hoping that the first quarter report will show an inventory overhang and weak earnings . . . .and that it will bring the price down so I can buy a larger position . . . .”
Why not wait and buy the larger position to start with?
Hmmm…..can’t find the box . . . .
Probably because what if it doesn’t pull back? What if they surprise, and it jumps? AT least he’s a little in then.
NVIDIA is an excellent product line and has been for sometime. They are very big with Gamers and the early BB Miners used their GPUs though that is over as ASICs and other technology are better suited for those computations.
NVIDIA has always seemed smart with GPU and Video related business especially 3D and power management lately. They even built in to their high end Graphics cards (or all of them) the ability to use the Intel Processor built in Video for standard 2D desktop PC video and only use the NVIDIA component for 3D and similar processing. IE do not turn on the Giant chainsaw to but down a little sapling.
I know this does not tell you about their numbers but as an old IT guy I thought I would contribute the little I knew.
Doug
HMM No edit function. Anyway I have a correction
BB Miners Should be BC Miners ie Bitcoin Miners
Sorry
Doug – I have a different view, respectfully. I have been working with computers for decades. I have run into some major problems with NVIDIA graphics cards. Graphic card problems with a computer – irritating, but not life threatening. But would I trust NVIDIA hardware/software in navigating a car – NO, at least not until it had been tested “live” in the marketplace for a couple of years.
the latest research (Google, etc.) does not account for accidents and sudden stops (ie., your car or another’s loss of electricity, unbeknownst obstructions, energy backup plans, weather anomalies, poor reaction times, countervailing circumstances=poor chain reactions from a starting reaction, computer upgrades/failures, and similar).
Better to make a smarter car with a human element, but with even smarter peripherals.
Now why is this Warren Buffett’s worst nightmare, you may well wonder? As the biggest owner of car insurance co. Geico, Berkshire Hathaway needs cars to be driven by people who need to buy auto insurance. If cars self-drive there is some darn fool theory that robots will never cause a crash. So no Geico. This is a leap only the Gardner Bros could come up with for tipping Nvidia. (I cannot post single-spaced. sorry.)
Nvidia is neither a racing greyhound nor a toothless old dog. The truth is somewhere in between; here is an analysis by Trefis, no hype just the facts:
Professional Graphics, PC Gaming & Tegra Drive Nvidia’s Growth In Q1’15
May 9th, 2014 by Trefis Team
-4.86% Downside
18.05 Market
17.17 Trefis
NVDA nVIDIA
Having released an abbreviated earnings report three days ago, after mistakenly distributing a draft release to 100 employees, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported its complete Q1 2015 results yesterday. Revenues ($1.1 billion) increased 16% annually and earnings per share improved from 13 cents in Q1 2013 to 23 cents in Q1 2014, exceeding both the company guidance as well as consensus estimate. Growth in the quarter was driven by Nvidia’s strong performance in PC gaming, higher Tegra revenue and continued progress in the data center and cloud.
Quick Snapshot of the Q1 2015 Earnings
Nvidia witnessed growth across business segments. Generating $898 million in revenue, its GPU business increased 14% annually, mainly driven by 57% growth in high-end GeForce GTX GPUs in both desktops and notebooks. While the overall notebooks segment remained weak, Nvidia witnessed strong demand from the high-end notebook market. The company reported increasing sales for Quadro workstation GPUs as well as Tesla chips for data center systems and supercomputers. Sales of GRID, Nvidia’s cloud solution, were up strongly compared to Q1 2013. Nvidia’s Tegra business reported a 35% increase, expanding for the third consecutive quarter. Gross margins increased from 54.3% in Q1 2014 to 54.8% in Q1 2015 on account of a richer mix of high-end desktop and notebook GPUs as a percentage of revenue for both desktop PCs and notebooks.
The primary reason why Nvidia has managed to outpace the PC market is that it does not, and has not ever, addressed the bottom 70% of the market. Its main focus has been on those vertical segments within a broader computing market where visual computing matters the most, including gaming, PC gaming, professional visualization and design, high-performance computing, and big data analytics.
Our price estimate of $17.17 for Nvidia is at a marginal discount to the current market price. We are in the process of updating our valuation for the Q1 2015 earnings.
See our complete analysis for Nvidia
Tesla & GRID To Drive Growth In Data Centers
The release of the Kepler-based GPUs last year has fueled Nvidia’s growth in professional graphics and translated into higher market share and margins for the company. Accounting for 80% of the market, Nvidia remains the dominant player in professional GPUs. The company claims to have started its fiscal 2015 with a 64% share of the PC discrete graphics market, 81% of workstation graphics units and Tesla in pilot projects at 44% of all HPC sites. [1]
Nvidia’s data center strategy has two key components – Tesla GPU computing and GRID virtualization. It expects both platforms to accelerate its growth in the future. Tesla and GRID generate increasing revenue from compute acceleration opportunities, VDI deployments and streaming gaming, which has helped Nvidia expand its footprint in data centers.
In December 2013, Nvidia announced that IBM will include Tesla accelerators in its next generation supercomputers and will be developing accelerated versions of IBM enterprise software applications with Nvidia CUDA GPUs. IBM dominates the commercial end of the Supercomuting market. According to IDC, 32% of all HPC computing systems are IBM implementations. [1]
Nvidia claims that the GRID trials continue to grow rapidly with nearly 600 enterprises worldwide evaluating the GPU server platform, up over 35% compared to the previous quarter. Many of the trials announced are turning into sizable pilots and many of those are in big blue chip and government accounts. Recently, VMware announced support for GRID to enable GPU-accelerated enterprise virtualization.
High performance computing has driven Tesla so far and Nvidia expects big data analytics to further add to the growth momentum in the future. With IBM, Dell and HP now selling Nvidia GPUs in their high-volume servers, the company expects large-scale data centers to be a significant source of growth.
end of quotation.
Hi Travis,
just wanted you to know that I can not find any box on the bottom to subscribe to some of the articles. It is the same for the article from Dr. KSS , ‘Guaranteed weightloss….’
Hi Travis:
The 800 pound gorilla in the semicon room is INTEL. It is the only 14 nanometer chip
maker in the world and when it decides to go into a particular market the rest head
for cover.
(background – this is my first comment, and I’m a software engineer in Silicon Valley)
This play is very uncertain. Self-driving cars face MANY hurdles on the way to mass-market adoption, not the least of which are non-technical issues around trust and regulation; with millions of networked self-driving cars, being able to test them enough to do their job to release, and incrimination against lawsuits, will be extremely tough.
NVDA has inroads due to market presence in the industry, but if self-driving cars really take off, there will be a huge boom in tech around it– not just the chips, which NVDA supplies, but lots of software and other hardware, monitoring, you name it. Also, big data companies will take off because the car companies will have way too much data to know what to do with.
Switching chips is not easy but can be done. The higher value IP in a self-driving car is going to be the software stack, not just in the car but all of the network and cloud software needed to support that infrastructure.
That said, NVDA can be a great play in many ways – they benefit directly from growth in tablets and mobile devices, as well as in datacenter growth – I would evaluate NVDA’s growth prospects with respect to the above markets (which looks pretty good), and not so much self-driving cars.
ANYONE: Could NVIDIA and POET have anything in common interest or would they be competitors? (POET ‘the end of Moore’s Law’ etc.) –Just wondering ..obviously I’m a novice (Read: ignorant) re computer/techie issues! Thanks.