Karim Rahemtulla’s Cyprus Gas Tease

Sniffing out the Cypriot Gas teaser from the new Oil & Energy Confidential newsletter

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OK, OK — the most asked-about teaser ad this week has been Karim Rahemtulla’s pitch about Cypriot natural gas for his newly launched newsletter … so although the clues are thin and the presentation was tiresome to listen to, your friendly neighborhood Gumshoe is digging in.

But it’s only because I love you.

The new letter being launched here is Oil & Energy Confidential, and it is pitched by Rahemtulla as his way to play his insider connections in the Middle East, including friends and relatives. He has apparently been a world traveler, including “boots on the ground” trips to Egypt as Mubarak was falling and a boat ride in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the potential energy choke points that everyone worries about in the event of a shooting war or more severe standoff with Iran.

I don’t know if he’s actually the “only known Western civilian” to have ventured into the Strait of Hormuz, but that strains credulity a little bit given the massive amount of commercial traffic in the area. Apparently his visit to the Strait was enough to convince him that Iran would not try to shut down traffic there, though plenty of folks feel differently and it’s been tried before — they don’t have to close the waterway (which is mostly on the Oman side) to stop oil tankers, they just have to mine it or threaten to attack commercial traffic, which would certainly inspire a vigorous NATO response and escalate tensions and drive oil prices up, particularly in Asia. Whether they’ll try this again is a question I can’t answer, the latest real chatter and fear about this was about a year ago … but Karim says no.

What I can do is look into his first specific teaser stock pick for this new newsletter.

I won’t quote much, because it’s not really in a print presentation or transcript, I just had to get the sense from the video ad. Basically, what Rahemtulla is saying is that there is a substantial natural gas resource in Cyprus, one that they’ve just begun to discover over the last couple years, and that this gas resource is going to be a lifeline for the Cypriots.

That’s because Cyprus needs substantial rescue funds, as we’ve all seen, from the European Union, and they need to build some sort of real economy that’s based on more than just being a tax haven for wealthy Russians … and, coincidentally, as they’ve started to discover these big offshore gas fields, they also find themselves with their closest neighbors in the EU being desperately in need of natural gas, partly because Europe’s gas is overwhelmingly supplied by Russia, often at a high cost in both political and financial terms.

So Rahemtulla believes they’re going to ramp up the typical long discovery/appraisal/evaluation/development/production timeline in the Cyprus gas fields, start pushing for more and faster drilling, and make his recommendation rich in the process.

We get no clues about the stock he’s teasing other than that he has a “secondary strategy” for profiting from it, which almost certainly means it has options trading available … and that it’s a NYSE listed stock and he’s plunking a $300 price target on the shares.

So who’s our bogey? Given those clues, this almost certainly has to be Noble Energy (NBL — Not NE, which is the offshore drilling contractor Noble Corp.). Noble has been very active in the Eastern Mediterranean for years, being part operator of the huge Leviathan natural gas discoveries offshore Israel that are close to the Cyprus exploration blocks, and they are indeed drilling more this year in Cyprus to appraise the gas discovery they made there in 2011. The Cypriot government has asked Noble to step up drilling so they can prove up their national reserves more quickly, but given the long scheduling timeframe of most deepwater drillships and rigs I don’t imagine they’ll be that much more aggressive than they’re already trying to be — the Israeli fields are a significantly higher priority right now because they’re closer to real production and (so far, at least) appear to be considerably larger.

And yes, Noble does have options trading if you’re interested — and a share price of about $110, so the $300 target is perhaps within the realm of possibility someday. I don’t know what kind of options strategy Rahemtulla might be using, but the most actively traded and widely-held options contracts are the January 2014 call options with strikes of $120, $130 and $140, so odds are pretty good his strategy has something to do with those contracts (I’d guess that he’s probably recommending some upside leverage to his anticipated spike in the price by buying the $130 calls, which trade around $2.50-$3 or so, but that’s just a guess).

They’re also a pretty well diversified “small major” in the oil and gas space, with significant production or exploration assets in the US (including the Niobrara and the deepwater Gulf of Mexico), West Africa, Nicaragua, the Falkland Islands and elsewhere. The market cap is about $20 billion, and they trade at a forward PE of about 13 with a 1% dividend yield — so they’re substantially more expensive than the real mega-majors, many of which trade with PE ratios around 8 and much more substantial dividends, but they do have real exploration upside and they’re small enough to add significantly to their reserves and future production with each new or expanded discovery.

Noble has been teased before a few times, mostly because of the Israeli Leviathan discovery and the other gas fields in the Levant Basin area — which itself might end up benefitting Cyprus if, as the Cypriots hope, some of that gas production can be exported through pipelines to Cyprus on its way to Europe. Major production from these fields is several years off, though the Tamar field offshore Israel (which is roughly similar in size to the preliminary estimates from the Cypriot Aphrodite field) is producing gas now, and production from the fields off Cyprus is probably close to a decade away unless it can be speeded up quite dramatically — there isn’t much infrastructure available, so they’ll also have to get some major investment to build out pipelines and processing plants once the discoveries are more fully fleshed out.

The importance of natural gas to Cyprus’ future is not a new thought — that’s been a big part of the background of all of the financial rescue chatter, and before that has been a point of contention with Turkey, which is pushing for their part of the disputed country to also benefit from gas discoveries. There’s a pretty good article here that goes over the geopolitical and development wrangling that’s still under way. So there’s certainly room for lots of different developments — including more discoveries, political disputes, infrastructure partnerships, etc. — that could impact the value of Noble’s exploration blocks (and others — Total and ENI also hold some blocks that are less explored).

So does it sound like an exciting opportunity to you? Sniff around and let us know what you think with a comment below. Thanks!

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Share Your Thoughts

ShowHide Comments (59)
    1. Mark
      May 2 2013, 02:38:32 pm

      The only natural gas that’s going to coming out of Cyprus for a long while emanates from their politicians. The reserves are apparently massive.

      • Roger
        May 2 2013, 03:00:45 pm

        1) The Cyprus reserves are not yet proven
        2) Noble are not stupid. They are a competent outfit.
        3) I work in the industry and I have a contact in Noble. He says 5 years exploration to go. Then 5 before anything comes out of the ground.
        4) Noble is only licenced for exploratory drilling. Even if their results are positive there is no guarantee they will get a production licence
        5) Noble are probably a worthwhile investment but this Cypriot story is irrelevant.
        6) Karim would seem to be full of ****. His “only known Western civilian” story is so off beam I wonder how he dares print it. There are at least 3 major cruise lines operating in the Gulf.

        • Jed Graham
          May 8 2013, 06:01:44 am

          Roger made some good points. I believe Karim is selling a dream. If you are a real investor you know that most of these claims are hype just to sell you a dream. That is why we do our due diligence. I enjoy reading gumshoe to another perspective. Roger thank you for your post. I hope more people read this.

    2. Perry
      May 2 2013, 02:47:54 pm

      Thanks for sleuthing this one. I kind of suspected Noble but wasn’t sure. Could be a money maker down the road. Things like this make me wonder about the plans to export american gas to all these great markets. By the time we can start everyone else in the world will be producing their own gas. On the other hand it should make a larger market for Westport. Maybe I should look at them again.

    3. Roger Bond
      May 2 2013, 03:12:51 pm

      There’s been a lot of dead money in Oil & Gas newsletters for many years now… is that about to change? Maybe.

      People who squawk about NG “soaring” to $4 (albeit, huge percentage gains) seem to forget that it’s still down from $14.

      Running vehicle on natural gas is no cheap date nor simple task, and I haven’t yet seen a scramble for NG based power plants.

      Nor have my Northern based relatives been bragging about plunging Winter fuel bills.


      • rew
        May 6 2013, 05:13:26 pm

        The issue here is not whether natural gas prices go up — in Europe gas prices are already a lot higher than they are here, and that’s the market where the Cyprus gas is going. So this is not a bet on natural gas prices going up. The issue is whether the company will succeed in developing more resources and increasing production.

    4. John Green
      May 2 2013, 03:15:05 pm

      I can tell you that you got the stock right and Karim recommended a straightforward stock buy, not an option trade.

      Me, I decided to put a little money on this but not a lot so I bought a deep in-the-money January ’14 leap. Being well in the money the leverage isn’t great but the time decay is kept to a minimum while I wait, and wait, and wait for this stock to go somewhere.

        • 3984 |
          Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
          May 21 2013, 11:41:39 am

          Different stock. He has teased both this gas company and a gold/copper explorer, the miner is the $2 one. Haven’t ID’d that yet.

    5. martha a. mason
      May 2 2013, 03:15:36 pm

      why to bother with cyprus gas when we have lng in our own backyard. cyprus gas is years away, we are much closer to make real business not pie in the sky. time is money, i don’t want to put money in something is years away to produce results.

      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 2 2013, 04:28:36 pm

        The problem with U.S. Natural Gas is that Obama is still sitting on the permits required for new drilling, refining (processing) as the gas has to be compressed for most available uses or put into a deep freeze to convert to LNG making it more condensed for transport. But, all of this is a mute point when you consider that he also refuses to sign the permits for the needed pipelines and shipping terminals needed to begin exporting. In short. We are at least 5 years from getting up to speed in the U.S. and the longer Obama delays the worse it gets for the U.S. economy and the job market. But then, if he signs the permits then he and his buddy W. Buffet can’t dominate the shipping market via Buffet’s rail system. For as long as Obama can delay it I would not anticipate any boom in the U.S. LNG industry. More likely to happen is that opportunities will be lost to other suppliers around the world and when Obama is gone the U.S. will have to play catch up.
        On a final note: No one sees the infrastructure being aggressively built across America. That’s because as long as Obama and the green thumbs stand in the way nothing is moving beyond a snail’s pace. The

        • 31 |
          Bob R
          Bob R
          May 2 2013, 04:52:58 pm

          Damn green thumbs! There’s nothing worse than people that put the environment ahead of making a few bucks. Short term thinking rues!

          • 15
            Wayne Hatcher
            May 2 2013, 05:29:27 pm

            It seems that I may have shaken a hornet’s nest with you, Roger Bond, and others. I am not saying damn the environment. I’m saying that we have the cleanest energy source in N.G. readily available that can be tapped into safely and no real headway is being made (at least not the kind that should be). The vast majority of progress is being made in spite of Obama by private investing in current systems. As for the pipelines. As with most energy sources there are potential hazards that must be taken into consideration and safe guards taken. One can use any occurrence to take a stand against something, but where are the problem solutions from those against? True, there are a lot of pipelines in America. The only problem is that they are to inadequate to handle the necessary flow to the gulf shipping lanes and Obama IS sitting on those permits. But hey, this is just my opinion and not necessarily the gospel, . So please don’t crucify the messenger.

            • bud
              May 2 2013, 06:29:19 pm

              The real problem is that greenies are so immersed in gobbling down the political rhetoric on global warming, they have done no research on their own. The true picture seems to be CO2 is increasing and temperature is not. All of global warming comes from the sun. Keep track of that orb and you will understand warming.
              I can tell you for sure, oil is with us forever. Do you want to be the first passenger on an all electric airliner?? Without abundant and cheap energy, we will all be riding horses or bikes.
              2/3rds of our oil is used to produce FOOD! We all eat don’t we?

            • 15
              Wayne Hatcher
              May 2 2013, 09:28:31 pm

              Hi Bud,
              I’m not sure the greenies are in this case as concerned about global warming as they are about water and ground contamination. I believe that global warming is a fact and yes, CO2 is the main culprit. However, N.G. is the cleanest gas to use and produces only a fraction of the pollutants. If N.G. were promoted we could cut probably 70% of polluting emissions in this country in about five years according to an environmental impact study I read a couple of years ago. That’s what got me on the C.N.G./L.N.G. band wagon. I’ve read where people have claimed that it would cost too much to convert autos. That’s bunk. I have converted two of mine to a dual system at a cost of less than $1000 per. That’s not too much to ask to improve environmental conditions. As for the greenies listening to the feds. It’s the green lobby and the threat of loss of votes that has the government scared I think. You know, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. But when it comes to providing safe guards for the ground and water. They have a valid argument. The problem is that it is possible. The technology exists. As for the argument that fracking uses up fresh water supplies. Not so. They can use sea water and reclaim most of it to reuse so that argument doesn’t hold water.

          • 15
            Wayne Hatcher
            May 4 2013, 01:47:53 pm

            Thank you Rusty for pointing out my grammar SNAFU. In the future I will try to be more precise for the anal retentive folks sake. I assume that you being as obviously intelligent as you are, you understood the meaning behind my comment. As I’m equally sure that you understand the intent of this reply. If not. Look up sarcasm and it will be clear.
            If you find any flaw in my grammar in this reply, please accept my apology in advance.

            • Lighteredknot
              May 4 2013, 02:08:13 pm

              Rusty B: ” Moot” can mean a discussion or an argument and “mute” means rendered speechless and what is wrong with that point by Wayne????

          • Luther
            May 4 2013, 08:14:19 pm

            This error is so common, but people are so touchy about it that I hesitate to correct them.
            Sigh, the faceless nature of the internet brings out the worst in folks.

            • 15
              Wayne Hatcher
              May 4 2013, 09:37:28 pm

              Thank you Lighteredknot . And you’re absolutely right Luther. It’s not that I mind being corrected when I am wrong. I consider myself fairly well educated and with a 3X tested IQ of 139 I consider that I am up to the task with most intellectually. More so that a few, equal to many, and not nearly on the same playing field with many more who are much more intellectually armed than I. The problem I had with Rusty’s reply is that a person doesn’t have to make it sound as if they’re saying “look it up” stupid. OK, I made a mistake I guess. Life goes on.

          • 15
            Wayne Hatcher
            May 4 2013, 11:04:45 pm

            Thanks Hi Pockets,
            But I gotta learn some restraint when I’m feeling my oats. I just had to apologize to Vivian Lewis and slink away with my tail between my legs because I jumped to a conclusion. Or should I say I jumped in confusion.

        • 183 |
          Larry Griffin
          May 9 2013, 05:07:47 pm

          I’ve looked a little bit at LNG and think your correct the infrastructure is a ways off. The LNG technology is inexpensive, unfortunately transportation requires cooling. Why is no one looking GTL. The GTL technology has been around for years, it’s more expensive, but doesn’t require cooling in transportation. How effectively could it use existing infrastructure I’m not sure.


          • 15
            Wayne Hatcher
            May 9 2013, 10:22:34 pm

            Hello Larry,
            I must admit ignorance about GTL. I do know that LNG offers a way to transport NG converted to a condensed liquid thus the ability to transport much more than CNG in a smaller container. This makes exporting very lucrative assuming the shipping vessels are available, pipelines, and processing facilities were allowed to be built. It seems to me (and this is just my opinion) that no matter the technology, there’s a political or environmental group that without any inclination to look into how it can be extracted, processed, and shipped safely and economically are going to try to stop it.

            • 183 |
              Larry Griffin
              May 10 2013, 01:08:16 pm

              Morning Wayne,
              Sasol-SSL – (South Africa) developed the GTL technology in WWII, so it’s not new, and they hold most of the patents. They have built several plants around the world, and are currently building a GTL and Ethane plant in Louisiana, IIRC completion 2016. If I’m correct (newb here) and little or no mods to transport with existing infrastructure. It’s going to be difficult for environmentalist and Politicos to get in the way.

          • 15
            Wayne Hatcher
            May 19 2013, 11:31:22 pm

            Come on Dennis. Let’s not go the party line route. I don’t care which party president is in office. The fact is that permits have been awaiting a presidential signature since 2008 that have not been signed. Dems or Repubs doesn’t matter. He is the president and has been since 2008. Please do your homework before taking this route. But. I gotta hand it to you. You pegged it. I don’t like Obama and would love to see him out of Washington with the rest of the ultra liberal and ultra conservatives. There is no room for extremists that bog government and progress down in our government. I believe that we need a progressive government with adequate checks and balances to protect our constitutional rights, the economy, jobs, and allow for access to our resources in a safe environmental friendly way. Obama and his cronies do not fill that bill. Socialist welfare is not progressive. If you’d like to argue facts I can supply you with about 2300 pages of them from our own government agencies that make my case for me. They cover everything from the health care system to the environment, the real employment numbers, the economy, and impact studies covering all sorts of interesting things. This is from the experts from both party lines, not just my opinion.
            Folks, once again I apologize for the rant but I couldn’t let this one go unanswered.

    6. Clive Richardson
      May 2 2013, 03:24:21 pm

      After reading the tease, I hit the Might Googlator. Quite a consensus that production could be more than a few years off. How long to plan and construct an LNG facility? Then there are political issues with Egypt contesting some of the potential space claimed to be explorable in the tease. If that wasn’t enough, it seems to completely wishful to claim that there is much more gas to be found even if Egypt doesn’t have a claim to large slices of it. No evidence! Know what I think? More BS from an outfit that makes its money suckering in small investors based on partial truths and lies by omission. Cyprus is screwed and gas finds teased by Karim are not going to save the day or make a decent investment for us.

    7. vivian lewis
      May 2 2013, 03:24:48 pm

      greetings. Unlike anyone named Karim I really am a western newsletter writer and for some years we have tipped the natural gas producer in Israeli (Tamar & Leviathan fields) and Cypriot offshore (Aphrodite field) , a sort of Israeli Berkshire Hathaway, an insurance company expanding into fun stuff. The company is called Delek Group. DGRLY for the ADR. I have no idea if Karim is talking about this one. He also may be pushing Texan Noble Energy. But this is not exactly news. It never is with these guys. But we get there first, Vivian Lewis, USA born and raised. vivian@global-investing.com

      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 2 2013, 04:50:31 pm

        I can’t help but notice that you seem to spend a lot of time on this forum tooting your own horn. It leads one to wonder whether you are that insecure or just trying to drum up business. I have visited http://www.global-investing.com and found it to be just like every other site just trying to sell another subscription. I believe it was $395. Please have the courtesy to at least advertise like everyone else. I mean-OK you’re smart enough to decipher the teases. Now, why should we pay you for what we already get here? Or do you use this forum to pick up information? Don’t mean to be so harsh but you gotta admit that you’ve challenged Travis on more than one occasion to figure out one of yours. Just another horn toot?

    8. Herb
      May 2 2013, 03:45:43 pm

      I have read in the Mining Digest a month ago, that Noble and Delig, an Israeli partner, have a joint operation. The first gas came in about a month ago. Ultimately, the Israelis and the Turks are jointly hoping to have a pipeline from the field to Europe. If geopolitics work out ideally, they expect to have this done in three to four years. Noble only has a 30% stake in this.

      • 3984 |
        Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
        May 2 2013, 03:53:32 pm

        True, Noble is partnered with Delek on the Israeli fields, and has partners in many of their projects. Delek isn’t a match because they’re not NYSE listed as the tease indicates, but they’re interesting for other reasons.

    9. Robert Mates
      May 2 2013, 03:54:43 pm

      if you buy NBL before the 13th on the 28th its splitting 2 to 1. better check it out, and for whats his name I wouldn’t take his advise as far as I could spit

    10. Robert Mates
      May 2 2013, 03:57:15 pm

      if you purchase NBL before the 13th on the 28th the stock splits 2 to 1. check it out. for whats his name I wouldn’t take his advise as far as I can spit

    11. Ron Ames
      May 2 2013, 04:09:16 pm

      Glad you confirmed my search. Noble is the target. I’m still waiting for extra information from Israel (family member) on any positive outlook for Delek which was also ferreted out last week. I just hope this puts a stop to the incessant blurbs about ( ? ) from WSD.

      • Bob
        May 6 2013, 12:42:46 pm

        Turkey lays claim to the Cyprus Aphrodite field and has already warned of a military
        attack on Cyprus if it start drilling without an agreement between the two countries, i.e.,
        Cyprus will have to agree to a share proceeds from the discovery before production.

    12. Clive Richardson
      May 2 2013, 04:29:03 pm

      Oh yeh, I forgot to mention… If n LNG terminal is 10 years in the making, a pipeline might ordinarily make sense but look at the map. Through Turkey. Don’t forget the enmity between ‘Greek Cyprus’ and Turkey – given the fact that Turkey invaded and stole a chunk of their island from them in my lifetime and are still an occupying ‘foreign army’. They still have a front-line that looks like something out of the Cold War. Turkey isn’t in the EU and it will not be a friendly partner to Cyprus – even if a deal could eventually be struck to route he pipeline through Turkey, It would not be on favourable economic terms. The whole things is not in the least a sensible investment.

    13. Viktor M
      May 2 2013, 04:47:41 pm

      Cyprus is divided between Greek and Turk areas. How does this affect the ownership of the gas fields? We need a map of the gas fields to see who owns what. If there is a dispute, who is likely to prevail? Will Cyprus creditors intervene to get their share? Will the gas field operators be immune from Greek Haircuts forced on them by Russian creditors? Who is willing to finance an expensive project of this size at the present level of uncertainty????

    14. Ron Boyles
      May 2 2013, 04:58:01 pm

      There are some major pipeline construction here in the US, and Obama aside, there are plenty of “not in my back yard” folks. Don’t have the link but a quick Google search of Columbia gas pipeline, State College,Pa will give you an idea of more battles to save ourselves. Sometimes we become our own worst enemy. Wonder if I’m the first to say that? 😉

      • Roger Bond
        May 2 2013, 05:01:46 pm

        In fairness, we lived about 2 miles from an NG pipeline when it blew, quite scary. Fortunately it was in a rural area and no one hurt, limited damage.

    15. 15
      Wayne Hatcher
      May 2 2013, 05:03:51 pm

      I’m doing some digging into a report about a three way deal struck between Russia’s Putin, Japan, and Israel. If this is fact there may be a better play in that region soon. I’ll post it for consideration when I finish looking into it. I may e all wet but it doesn’t hurt to look.

    16. Roger Bond
      May 2 2013, 05:35:38 pm


      No hornet’s nest here.

      Just saying, there is SOME legitimacy – at times – for a little NIMBY (not in my back yard). Not to say we shouldn’t build more pipelines, just saying that sometimes there are people voicing opposition who have legitimate concerns that do need to be addressed and taken into consideration.

      BTW, care to guess how easy it was (wasn’t) to get info from the pipeline company about what went wrong and what they were doing to prevent another rupture? No help from local legislators either.


      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 2 2013, 09:00:02 pm

        Hi Roger,
        I wouldn’t begin to guess because I’ve seen first hand the red tape machine. Be careful though. You may get labeled as an instigator. I agree with you that NIMBY is very often valid. There are enough open lands available in most areas to bury them deep and technology (if used and monitored properly) as not to get too close to populated areas or cause an environmental impact. If you look at the maps there are plenty of pipelines in those already populated areas to carry gas and oil to terminals. I mean we have something like 170K miles already in place. The core of the issue as I see it is the lack of ability to send the resource to the gulf area where it makes the most sense to have the refineries and shipping ports. The second problem as I see it (notice how I keep saying “as I see it”) is the lack of adequate testing and monitoring overseen by a responsible agency. I just hate to see opportunity for revenue and job growth practically given to the rest of the oil and gas producing nations of the world while we watch and do virtually nothing. There has to be a middle ground.

    17. Clive Richardson
      May 2 2013, 05:36:00 pm

      …and, did you know, when the Turks were sabre rattling just prior to the Turkish invasion, Cyprus went to it’s ‘friends’ in Europe and asked for help but were ignored. They even pleaded, ‘arm us and we will defend ourselves’. They were still ignored. It was too late but you know who did and still arms and provides ‘technical assistance’ to Cyprus? Russia. My ex brother-in-law is a tank commanding Major in their ‘National Guard’, which can’t officially be called an army because their ‘friends’ forbade’ it. He knows all about the latest Russian T80’s and has been sent to Russia for training on a number of occassions. Remember, this is a country in the EU! The whole region is a nightmare to be frank. Happy Investing. 🙂

      Check this out for one serious MoFo ‘National Guard’ (hope it’s ok to post a YouTube link and please excuse the annoying advert, which can thankfully be skipped):-

    18. Natalia Hiday
      May 2 2013, 05:47:18 pm

      I subscribe to karim’s & louis’ site. karim’s picks are atrocious, haven’t seen a winning pick from him.

    19. Myron Martin
      Myron Martin
      May 2 2013, 06:52:00 pm

      Have been looking at Delek (Israeli) and Noble for months before Karim’s video hit and so far I am not convinced that anything to do with Cyprus is going to move the Noble needle by very much in the near future. While my specialty is junior mining stocks where jurisdictional risk IS a major concern, I can’t believe a guy like Karim who is still very much Wall St. oriented and dismissive of junior miners as too risky would actually recommend a stock like Noble even if it is the leader in the area. From the pictures I have seen there are 12 blocks being licensed off Cyprus, so a better candidate might present itself once the balance have been sold and the known new operators are revealed. ENI and TOTAL are equally as investable as Noble, (not that I think it is a bad company) I just think that payoff on any of them is too far away. Maybe a smaller company that has more potential growth with a major find will be lucky enough to get one of the 8-9 available licenses.
      I am all for “intelligent speculation” but am not very excited about Karim’s insight.

    20. Barry Shaw
      May 3 2013, 02:29:18 am

      One correction. Israel has begun to pump natural gas thanks to Noble Energy and Israeli company Delek. New fields are opening up and I can see the exploration vessels searching for more fields off the Netanya coast from my apartment balcony.
      The initial exploration results for Cyprus are promising and Israel and Cyprus have signed an joint development agreement. Noble will be investing heavily in this project. True, we have Turkey as the spoiler, but with tentative moves to repair diplomatic damage between Israel and Turkey on the horizon this may be resolved.
      There is great hope that natural gas finds will be a life-saver for Cyprus. We in Israel hope so and stand ready to be involved.
      One final observation. Cypriot and Israeli natural gas may not only be marketed in Europe. A major Chinese delegation is due in Israel next week. One of the results will be the signing of a massive Chinese investment to build a rail line from Ashdod to Eilat for transporting goods, including gas and oil, from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea thereby avoiding the Suez Canal. This will open up a new gateway from Europe to the Far East.

    21. vivian lewis
      May 4 2013, 01:41:43 pm

      for the record I have never challenged Travis to figure out one of my stock ideas. If he stumbles close enough I tell people who read him; if that is tooting my horn, sorry. But somebody has to toot my horn besides newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert if we are to gain subscribers.
      I run a very small-cap newsletter which comes out daily and have a staff of writers. we make money for our subscribers. we do not market to the masses as this is very expensive and would require that we boost our sub price.
      we let our performance speak for itself as we cannot afford the teaser marketing junk. try it and see.
      as for advertising on stock gumshoe I am not sure this is altogether a prestigeous site for serious ads, to judge what I see alongside the gumshoe’s investigations. sorry. I would like to work with Travis

      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 4 2013, 10:02:36 pm

        Hello Vivian,
        Perhaps I owe you an apology. I could swear I read a few months back where you said (loosely quoted) “I wonder when Travis and the Mighty Think-o-later is going to take on the great Vivian Lewis”. If I am wrong or confused please accept my apology for that error. As I said in an earlier reply. I don’t mind being corrected when I am wrong. And I certainly am not above offering an apology when warranted. Your point is well received and since I elected not to subscribe I am not an authority on the content of your publication or expertise and you have every right to dress me down. In hind sight. I should have just kept my opinion and comments to myself. Again, I ask that you please accept my apology if I have misspoken.

      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 4 2013, 10:55:52 pm

        Hello again Vivian,
        I couldn’t help myself after reading your reply to me. I have been going back through past issues and finally found what I was referring to. I definitely owe you a sincere apology and as I spouted off here I wanted to come back here and do it. While I pull my foot out of my mouth please consider accepting my most heartfelt apology. It was a comment from WHO NOZE about deciphering one of your stock picks that I referred to. OK,OK. I’m an idiot sometimes. Just another reason I’m glad that my wife has the patience of a saint. But I truly do hope that you will forgive my arrogance and accept my apology.

    22. 32
      Cathy Kandravi
      May 4 2013, 03:25:12 pm

      The green really works in China the king that goes in there pockets and we are paying them to fuel Gore Gulfstream not to mention his limo for his wacked out movies that are made with cuts and clips from disney world. Scientists make there own thermostat and none of them are the same. It took 11 cuts to get the show bear on the right piece of ice for that prom and they got busted by u-tube but the clip was sold to keep it off the green machine. Obama likes one thing better than the tree huggers and that is Warrens Oil Train which is self insured when there is the first 150 tanker full of oil used to fertilize the subsidized corn for the bio Navy contracts. SYNM and GEVO HAVE GREAT BILLIONAIRE partners and clients but they don’t get to refine it Mansfield Billion $ refinery which is private hides the monkey well for the EPA. Here is the big teaser that Travis and the Thinkolater can look up. MAJOR DRILLING CONTRACTOR AND YES MAJOR IS CAPITAL LETTERS HAS 2,000,000 MILLION CALL CONTRACTS OUT FOR HIS 2015 LEAPS AND HIS DIRECTORS GOT ON THE TRAIN TO. Oh need to tease a little more lets see he owns almost 30% of the company which is the largest holder and they like in play in the water. I got the proof and will send you a legit copy . Just for fun Travis I would think you have enough now and nobody has any news letters teasing it yet.

    23. Barry Shaw
      May 5 2013, 01:37:27 am

      As written here there are the Leviathan and Tamar reservoirs of natural gas offshore from Israel. The partners involved are and American and Israeli mix – Houston-based Noble Energy holds 39.66% of the Leviathan field, Isralei-based Delek Drilling and Avner Oil Exploration each hold 22.67%, and Israeli-based Ratio holds 15%. However, the partners have a conditional agreement to sell a 30% share of the field to Australian firm Woodside Petroleum. The companies have expressed a desire to export as much as they can but the political discussions within the Israeli government is to hold back as much as possible for domestic consumption. The Leviathan expectations was recently raised by 5% to 18.9 trillion cubic feet (535 b.cu.m.). The neighbouring Tamar field is bigger, containing 250 b.cu.m. It is likely that Israel will use the Tamar field for domestic comsumption thereby releasing Leviathan for export purposes. A third field will be a joint venture between Cyprus and israel. The Cypriot President is in Israel right now meeting Israel’s Prime Minister and other government officials. Cyprus is pinning its economic recover on the natural gas reservoir. One thing is for sure, the development and exploitation of these natural gas resources will be infinitely more rapid than similar resources in America. The economic and political benefits are so essential to Israel and Cyprus that normal bureaucratic sluggishness has been overcome in an effort to become energy independent and to kickstart local economies.

    24. olwreckdiver
      May 5 2013, 03:36:42 am

      As for CNG, most of the major trucking companies are converting, and Washington State Ferries figures they’ll save a huge amount by converting 2 ferries from diesel to CNG.

      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 9 2013, 10:54:57 pm

        I read an article that said that many school bus systems and large city refuse trucks (Baltimore if I remember correctly was one mentioned) are also converting and estimates are that millions in savings will be realized nation wide. Not to mention the reduction in emissions.

    25. 3984 |
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      May 10 2013, 11:23:05 am

      And now the latest push on this one is that they have to move it to a “hold” because they just don’t want investors driving the shares up too much. The shares have been moving back and forth between $105 and $120 over the last 4-6 months, have a $300 price target from Rahemtulla, and are up maybe 5% in the weeks since the tease began (slightly more than the broader market’s rise) so it’s hard to see why you’d say it’s in an “aggressive ascent” and the stock has to be “moved to a hold tomorrow” … unless you’re trying desperately to get a potential subscriber’s attention.

      • 15
        Wayne Hatcher
        May 10 2013, 01:32:31 pm

        Uh oh boys and girls. Hold on. It’s virtually keeping pace with the market so we need to put on the brakes before this thing gets out of hand. Yep, keeping pace with the market at about 5% is a sure fire explosion in price. Makes me want to jump right in with all of my eggs in that basket. NOT!

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