A couple weeks ago I covered the first teaser from Karim Rahemtulla’s newly launched Oil & Energy Confidential trading service — that was a pitch about natural gas offshore Cyprus, claiming that as the “only western civilian to cross the Strait of Hormuz” he had inside connections and contacts about the developments in the region (though Cyprus is, of course, a ways away from the Strait).
The pick he touted then, Noble Energy (NBL), is up 10-15% since we covered it (the broader market is also up, though slightly less — about 5-10%) … apparently that was enough for him to slap a “hold” on the pick despite his $300 price target, so he’s now getting us riled up about another stock, this one a little sub-$2 gold and copper company.
I think the artificial deadline has actually run out on his offer to sell you this idea as part of your subscription to his new newsletter, but, well, that needn’t stop us from digging in and seeing if we can name it for you.
His basic pitch is that he knows the company and put his “boots on the ground” at one of their properties … but, more importantly, that this is a stock with a high “beta” to the price of gold and copper (it has gone up more than the metal price during the bull run — presumably it’s also gone down more in recent weeks, though he didn’t mention that), and he expects gold and copper to “not go to zero” (I didn’t catch a price target in the presentation), and he thinks this is a hard asset “historic buying opportunity” as the miners recover.
We don’t get a lot of clues specifically about this company, other than that they have some assets that are in big gold and copper regions and surrounded by major mines, that they have more than 150 projects, and that the shares trade for less than two dollars.
So what is it?
Well, with those clues and the massive number of exploration and mining companies out there we can’t expect a 100% certain answer from the Thinkolator, but I did feed in those few clues, check up on the answers…
… and confirm that he’s very likely teasing Eurasian Minerals (EMXX in NY, EMX in Canada).
Eurasian minerals is one of the more successful examples of a breed of stocks that I generally like: Prospect and royalty generators, companies who turn some geologic insight or early staking and exploration and deal-making into viable mining prospects that they can then partner with a deep-pocketed mining firm, holding on to either a junior stake, or royalties on the project, or both.
And yes, they are traded under $2 a share — right around $1.70 at the moment. They do have “150+” properties in their portfolio, and, according to recent presentations, 69 that are advanced enough to be called “exploration projects.” They are not producing anything, but they do have a couple producing revenues that are generating some cash flow — and a dozen or so other royalties that may eventually be worth something.
To further add to the speculation that this is the pick Rahemtulla is flogging, it’s noteworthy that the stock is up about 20% over the last three or four weeks since his newsletter launched … at a time when the gold miners in general have been down about 5-10%. And that rise was fueled in part by some high volume days about 10-12 days ago, when this was being touted heavily, and yesterday, when the “deal” expired. Not conclusive, there are some other gold stocks that have had a good month of May so far … but from what I can tell there ain’t all that many of ’em.
Now … as to whether this particular miner has discovered gold that’s so pure that it “isn’t supposed to exist” — well, presumably that’s largely hyperbole, but Eurasian has had drilled into a nice vein or two lately, including one in Turkey that had 80+ g/t showing for two meters that (assuming the Thinkolator’s right this time around) I’d guess is probably the discovery being teased. That’s not so rich that it “shouldn’t exist”, of course, but it’s very high and it’s the best they’ve found on that property.
Eurasian is active in several areas around the world — Turkey is one of their cornerstone exploration areas, but they also have a significant exploration deal in Sweden; more than a dozen copper/gold prospects in Arizona and Nevada, many of which are already partnered, a major exploration project partnered with Newmont in Haiti; and an early stage prospect in Australia and a partnered exploration program in New Zealand. So they get around.
And they have also been a favorite of the gold newsletters, off and on, for several years now — they did a solid deal to buy Bullion Monarch last year, which is, assuming that gold recovers somewhat and doesn’t collapse, probably going to generate enough cash flow from the royalties to cover most of Eurasian’s overhead … they probably overpaid for it, given the current gold price, but if you think gold and copper are going permanently or persuasively lower, well, you’re not going to be interested in this one anyway.
I’ve never owned Eurasian Minerals, and haven’t looked at their slate of projects in any detail, but it is certainly levered to gold and copper and they do have financially strong partners for the deals they’ve already done, so the stock ought to do well if commodity prices spike. They do also have about $20 million in cash to expand their portfolio of assets if they find something they like at depressed prices, so it may be worth some more research if you’re looking for a stock in this sector.
As I said above, from those clues we can’t guarantee that this is Rahemtulla’s pick — but it’s the closest I’ve found, it’s levered to copper and gold with some high-grade drilling results lately on one of their properties, and I do like the prospect generator business model. So go forth, researchify on EMXX if you’re seeking a mining play, and share your thoughts … whether you find great promise or areas of grave concern in their management or their portfolio of prospects, let us know what you think with a comment below. Thanks!
(Or, of course, feel free to let me know if the Thinklator’s missed the target on this one and you’ve a better candidate with 150 properties, high grade results, and a sub-$2 share price.)
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