Review by Larry Blair, January 29, 2009

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I have offered to review 4 newsletters; 2 will be positive, 2 will be negative. I offer this so you know I am not just writing negative reviews.

I subscribed to Options Hotline in the beginning of 2007 for a total of about two weeks. As the title says, this service recommends call and put option positions for short term trading. The service is edited by a Steve Sarnoff. Two weeks was enough time for me to review their archives, do research on each pick of the prior two years, and call their customer support to confirm my review.

Here are a couple of blips from their website.
A Mere $5,000 Investment In Each Recommendation Could Have Earned You:
$178,500 gains in 2000…
$184,525 gains in 2001…
and
$222,987 gains in 2002
and we’re up $80,950 in 2003.
Imagine Earning An Average Gain of Between 80% and 105% on Every Trade You Execute!
It’s Now Possible With the Help One of The Most Prophetic and Profitable Trading Strategies
Ever Made Available To The Average Investor…
These investors have an opportunity to cash out with a remarkable 66% of the time usually within 2 to 6 weeks!
That means about four of every five trades have the chance to wind up profiting. Not just ordinary profits, either. I’m talking…
• 419% in July with Sony Corp. in only seven weeks…
• 110% this past July with Anglogold in only 9 days…
• 141% this past April with Blockbuster in only five weeks…
• 392% this past May with General Electric in under one month…
• 335% this past May with Harrah’s Entertainment in almost four weeks…
• 153% this past June with Coca-Cola in only one month…
• 292% this past November with Qualcomm in two weeks…
• 360% this past October with Halliburton in little over one month…
• 858% this past October with Navistar in little over two and a half months…
• 898% this past September with TRW in only one month…
• 380% in March with GE in 28 days…
• 130% with Lexmark in 20 days to kick off 2002
• 628% with Intel in three weeks…
• 838% with Duke Energy in six weeks…
• 431% with Pfizer in three weeks…
• 1,202% with General Motors in six weeks…
And the list goes on and on…
The issues that turned me off to this service were 1) they do not recommend a sell point and 2) how they recorded and calculated ‘successful’ recommendations.

They label any recommendation as a success if the price of the recommended option at any time after the recommendation was released exceeds the ‘buy’ price. This literally meant a recommendation of XYZ that had a buy at $4.50 and went to $4.60 ten minutes later was considered a successful trade. It doesn’t matter that 60 minutes after that the option dropped 50% and later lost 95% of its value. Likewise, an option that immediately fell 50% but recovered on the expiration day to $4.60 was a success as well.

This is like me saying that I can tell you who will be winning a football game 2 out of three times- that is if I define ‘winning’ to be any time a team I recommend has a lead in the game at any time- not necessarily the lead at the end of the game. The information may make nice ‘what if’ stories- but it really doesn’t help you make any money beyond what one is capable of doing for oneself.

The returns they list are based on the peak price a recommended option hit at any time from the time it was released until expiration. I went through two years worth of recommendations to see if there was any way to systematize when to sell. I couldn’t find any. Some recommendations hit their peak that day, some on expiration and any time in between.

Remember, they said that two out of every three were successful- this was during a bull market when most stocks were increasing. Without a recommended sell point I thought the service to be useless, and any stated record to be grossly inflated. A number of the recommendations had their peak within a day of being released- I attributed this more to an increase in demand due to his customers all buying at once than any short term accuracy of the option.

Now to be fair, on the site they do say that profits are based on ‘peak’ price – so this is out there. Also, when I called customer service they admitted that the service does not offer a sell recommendation and that the profits are theoretical. The did refund my money- it took them a few weeks to refund the money that they were able to take in minutes- but I was OK with just getting a refund.

To sum it up- don’t throw your money at this service- you can pick 2 out of 3 options that at some time will go up in price. There are other services that will offer a buy and sell price- at least these you can gage their success on their own merits and not some theoretical performance.

Review by Phil, February 7, 2009

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I subscribed to this service several years ago and I can confirm what Larry has told you. Agora is very carefull about their wording in the claims they make. They use the words may have, could have etc. They are careful not to claim they DID make x% gains.
They DO state you could have made x% profits throughout the life of the option if you sold at the peak of its value. Of course you will never get a sell recommendation from the service that will accomplish this goal.
In my opinion dont throw your money away chasing could have advertising.

Review by Tampat, February 7, 2009

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Options Hotline- $260 per quarter

I agree with all the other comments previously posted. I subscribed for one quarter and then cancelled. I did make money, about 3 times the subscription cost. It may not be a bad service for you if you have experience and can closely manage the trades. I did not take every rec he put out, I researched them myself after getting the rec and only took some I thought had merit and I did ok, but he had so many losing picks I finally decided to cut it lose.

Review by Dave, February 14, 2009

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Rating is poor due what others have said about getting into the trade. I have found that all the option newsletters are the same way. The newsletter controls the market for that strike. If you want to use these news letter you have to be educated about options and use a different strike strategy. I still get the newsletter because I am a lifetime member of a group which it is one, but I don’t trade it anymore.

Review by Anthony, February 19, 2009

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I agree with everyone…started out OK but went down hill fast. The customer service is non-existent. The reco’s are poor even though you can make money. you have to be watching every minute of every day to get out with a profit.

Review by Bob Wilber, February 23, 2009

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This is just a “ditto” of the above reviews. A trading service that tells you when to enter a trade but not when to get out is basically useless. And their advertising is based upon an imaginary world in which you always sell an option at the highest price it ever gets after you buy it, as if you knew you were at that point when it occurs.

Review by EA, February 25, 2009

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Customer Service	Not Rated
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yes the pick is reached the first day as Larry said probably because of subsc. demand then next day on are worthless until expiration at least most of them

Review by NK, March 2, 2009

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All the above reviews are so true. There is no telling when to get out. Their advertising is totally exploiting the greedy nature of humans. Sarnoff’s guidance as to when to get out is skimpy and nowhere close to the peak. Suffice to say it is not helpful at all. I would recommend it only to the most nimble traders out there. Others stay away.

Review by JB, March 3, 2009

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I used Sarnoffs service in 2003….everything above is true…lost a bundle on a completely worthless service…which is being sold today using the same hype.. my opinion its GARBAGE!

Review by acj4427, March 3, 2009

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My main argument with this newsletter is the promotion.
Nobody can sell at the top regularly, and just because it traded above the buy price for a short time ….before slumping does not make it a winner.
However I think the other reviews fail to acknowledge that Sarnoff does offer suggested sell prices.
ie on every reco he say something like- “Conservative traders may target a rebound towards $21 (Price of underlying stock). Speculative traders may look to a multiplyer move towards $25.”
If this is not guidence on a sell price I don’t know what is. If people want someone to issue them with an alert to make it more obvious then maybe they should not be trading options.
I have not made money using this service so I am not the greatest fan but fair is fair. He is going through a tough patch at present but he has certainly had many winners.

Review by JP, March 5, 2009

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I was attracted to this service by the claims (”turn $5000 into 1 million in some ludicrously short period of time”). I quickly found, like many other reviewers so far, that those performance numbers were simply not accurate but absolute “best case” numbers, getting the recommended entry price and selling at the absolute top, whether they hit the “conservative” or “aggressive” tagrets at all. Naively following the reqs lost me a lot of money, lesson learned. Occasional winners that actually hit the sell targets, more than offset by significant numbers of 100% losers (worthless @ expiration).

Review by Deanbob, March 21, 2009

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It has been years since I subscribed to The Options Hotline, but I see nothng has changed. Larry’s (first review) analysis is spot on.

Review by Fabian, April 8, 2009

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Value for the Money

Effectively, advertising for this letter is crap, maybe legally correct but totally wrong in the spirit; if I ever become millionaire with their method, I’ll write another review.
The performance sheet means nothing since options are always sold (in the sheet) at the highest price that was eventually possible.
If you know that and understand it, the letter is not bad. So far, in two months I haven’t lost money. The options are well chosen and they move fast. But as to closing the position, you are ON YOU OWN. You have to feel the market and the particular stock and don’t hope to make 300% every time, that will not happen.

Review by FCU, April 21, 2009

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Horrible, ridiculous service. Trading is all about entry point, exit point (including stops), and money management, plus with options you have to account for theta. This service gives you an entry point, but nothing else, and not even any basic TA so that you can figure out for yourself if a trade is going right or wrong (assuming that you are going to set stops for yourself since this joker gives you nothing). Customer service is nonexistent. If you can profitably trade this service, then you are a good enough trader that you don’t need this service. Otherwise you are going to lose a sh**load of money.

Review by Jennie, May 23, 2009

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I read with interest the above reviews. I’ve used Steve’s service for about a year and, although I have not officially tallied up my gains and losses, I know I’ve come out a little ahead. I’ve traded perhaps 70% of his recommendations, but certainly haven’t come anywhere close to that million plus they advertise! Not by a tenth of a long shot. I agree with fellow reviewers’ complaints that their marketing is a little suspect. One trade that I made was a huge loser while he bragged about gains made. Huh? But then I realized that yes, the trade had skyrocketed the first day (while I was at work and could not monitor my account) following which it plummeted from then on. If you can sit by your computer during trading hours and watch your account, and have a strong premonition as to when to get out then yes, you’ll make money! I would also agree that their customer service is not the best; I emailed once and never heard back. I am a novice at options investing, have learned a lot both from Steve’s sparse comments as well as from other reading I’ve done, and think I could probably venture out on my own and do about as well as I’ve done with him. We’ll see!

Review by wrpark, June 30, 2009

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just got into this service and still in the ‘warranty’ stage. have made 2 of the recommended trades with negative results so far. went into this with the full knowledge that no exits were provided, but wanted to see how the recommendations did. safe to say that i will be backing out and hopefully getting my money back.

Review by Portfolio Man, September 11, 2009

All,

I think I found the next Martin Weiss marketing genius/scam artist… maybe. A buddy of mine forwarded me an advertisement from this guy saying he has had 100% winning trades for the last 3 years (sounds like Claus on MCP 66 out of 68 wins). The advertisement said “NOT A SINGLE LOSING PICK SINCE 2007″ and shows turning $5K into $1M!!! However, I guess he qualifies this by saying that this service recommends opening positions and that results were based on highest possible exit points (meaning this is not what he actually did.. of course otherwise he would be charging $10K a year for the service). If a service does not offer an exit strategy, especially with options, than what good are they unless you are looking for ideas only. IF ANYONE IS CURRENTLY SUBSCRIBING, I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS. Usually if it is to good to be true, you should run fast in the other direction and not look back. The Martin Weiss Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio (MCP) thought me this valuable life long lesson. If this is false advertisement, there needs to be laws against it. That is like telling someone if you buy and drive a new Ford Focus that they can possible be the next big NASCAR professional driver. While you have a 1 in a 1 million chance of that happening, the odds are greatly against you and you were taken once again by false marketing.

I am grateful for sites like this that offer honest feedback before you actually waste hard earned money on possible scams.
Thanks

Review by JOHN HAEDRICH, September 12, 2009

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NOT recommended!

Some misses are expected, especially in this volatile market. IMHO there have been far too many “misses”.

Moreover, his writing style is not clear and difficult to follow. “Reco’s” and “resistence” - well….. nuff said.

John Haedrich

Review by Kim, September 22, 2009

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“Gains are based on all triggered picks, assuming exit point at peak option value.”

Achieving those gains requires perfect hindsight looking backward from the option expiration dates to the option purchase dates.

Any site calculating gains based on highest possible price is SCAM. Plain and simple.

Review by Trevor, November 6, 2009

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Please do your research if considering Steve Sarnoff’s Options Hotline! All the above comments are true, this is a SCAM. Most people, like myself, buy into the claims initially only to find that his picks rarely pan out as he advertises.

My guess is that Agora Financial makes money by people subscribing at $500 to $1,000 a pop, and then issues refunds weeks later as people find out that the service is worthless. In the meantime, they hold your money for weeks and make a profit by banking thousands of investors’ cash.

Don’ subscribe!

Review by Stan, December 13, 2009

It’s been a couple of years since I tried Options Hotline… What I do remember is that I lost a good chuck of $$ AND that there was no exit strategy. At least most other services offer an exit strategy.
What I don’t understand is why Agora continues a service with such a poor rating… makes me wonder about the quality of the other Agora services….

Review by Al, December 28, 2009

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My experience was similar to many of you. The advertising is deceptive and the results are no where near what’s depicted.
It’s an example of distorting results to promote your service. As some said earlier you probaply could have made more money doing the opposite of his recommendations.

I highly recommend using services like this to check out any company or service you are considering investing in.

Review by subscriber 1, January 27, 2010

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I’ll complement from my experience with Larry Blair’s review. It is exactly how most newsletter does they exaggerations. Basically, they gives a conservative and aggressive price point along with each reco, when to exist is your decision. One would think they cannot claim a winner unless it at least meet the conservative exist price, but as Larry pointed out, even intra day price goes up by 1 cent, it’s a winner to them, most of the case, it went way down afterwards and never come back. And that’s how they claimed no losser since 2007.

I had been with Option Hotline since Oct of 2008. Initially it has a few of winners and so I hold onto this subscription thinking it is going to stand out of others. As it turned out, I have maybe a couple of winners since mid-2009. Everything else is a big loss. Also keep in mind, most options reco here were expensive options, while the winning maybe high, so were the losses.

Review by FC, January 27, 2010

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Too much been said on the advertising technique of this newsletter. The claim of no loser since 2007 is definitely a false statement, far from it!!

The way this newsletter works is they give one reco once a week with a conservative and aggressive target. When to exist is your decision. The only problem is the reco might go the right direction (call or put) for a bit then reverse. Only very few will hit the conservative target, never mind the aggressive target. It has been having losers after losers since the beginning of Q2 of 2009