“Biotech Scientists Discover ‘Magic’ Keys to Immortality” (“Dr. Allen’s … RNA Interference Revolution: Your Ticket to Centuries of Health and Wealth”)

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[Ed note: This article was originally published in June, 2013 when the shares of the stock teased, Alnylam (ALNY) were around $30 and the Oxford Club was saying that the first person to live to 1,000 is already alive … now they’re touting it as the holder of the “Magic” Keys to Immortality, but the tease and the details (and the stock) are still the same. The latest pitch is based partly on upcoming catalysts, particularly the “winding down” of Phase 2 studies on their lead drug and the likelihood that they will soon get approval to start Phase 3 studies for this drug that has an FDA “orphan” designation, which they think will rocket the stock higher.

What follows has not been updated, edited or revised, but ALNY is now a $11 billion company with a share price of roughly $110, it has had its ups and downs after being teased two years ago, but it has been generally very strong and we last re-published this piece about a year ago when the stock was at less than half this price. I don’t know a lot about the company or the science behind it, and didn’t know much about it then either (sometimes I’ve got an opinion, sometimes I can just get you the stock name and ticker and let you get started on your own), so I’m republishing this instead of re-writing it — that will let us stay connected to the original stream of comments. If you want to see some of the more recent chatter on this, you can also check the article we wrote when Michael Robinson was using a similar “How to Live Forever” shtick in teasing this same company, about a month ago, for his Nova-X Report.

I hope you find the following helpful, but it at least answers the question so many have asked: “what’s Oxford Club’s ‘Magic Keys to Immortality’ stock?”]

—-following was published June 29, 2013 and has not been edited or updated—

“Just one company stands to make the lion’s share from this radical life extension phenomenon…

“It’s locked down nearly every patent behind this technology.

“The founder of this company, a Nobel Prize-winning scientist, is the same man who founded one of the most storied biotech companies ever.

“His first biotech outfit saw its stock go from $3.08 a share to over $240 a share. That’s when his company developed and released a treatment for a debilitating – and often deadly disease.”

I can see why so many folks have been asking about this latest pitch from the Oxford Club — not only do you get that kind of exciting story, but you also get the coincidence that the folks who buy investment newsletters tend to mostly be in their 60s and 70s and quite interested in health and rejuvenation and life extension, and the ad came in under the headline that …

The First Person to Live to Age 1,000 Has Already Been Born…

Presumably that’s going to be one of the people who are a few months old now, and you also have to see a real exponential hockey-stick chart of life expectancy to get to 1,000 years old — along, of course, with a complete change to the structure of human life on earth — but the more realistic-sounding projections, based on some big breakthroughs like the one being teased here, are that it’s possible for adults alive now to reach 150 years of age, and that the longer you live the more science will catch up with you and push that envelope further. Of course, you won’t be able to retire at 65 if you’re looking at making those monthly condo payments for another 80 years after that, but presumably you’ll be so strong and vibrant that you’ll be working as a longshoreman for a little fun and pocket change in your spare time.

But anyway, this Oxford Club pitch is that there’s a spectacular biotech company that’s got RNA technology patents locked up, and visionary leadership, and they’re going to shoot to the moon over the next few years — starting soon as they release their next FDA trial results in the days and weeks to come, and accelerating by next year as Phase III trials and possible drug approvals get closer to reality.

And no, it’s not the same idea as the “God Switch” ads still being run by Patrick Cox and the Agora folks — that’s a different “become immortal” strategy based on stem cells and they were (and are, and have been for a while) teasing BioTime (BTX). This is a different approach to living “forever.”

Here’s some more from the ad, talking about the huge success this scientist had with his last company:

“In the next 90 days, we’re expecting an unprecedented and shocking announcement from this gentleman’s new ‘start-up’ biotech company…

“It’s a ‘coming out party’ of sorts for this technology.

“And when this news hits the mainstream media, I believe it could become the most talked about technology breakthrough of our lifetimes. And the stock is likely to storm up the charts as a result.”

Here’s how they describe the actual science … and let me just warn you, from here on out I’ll be playing the role of “dumb guy”, the science is out of my sphere of understanding:

“Think of your cells like tiny photocopiers. Even if you have the highest-quality printer in the world, there will be a problem if you make copies of copies of a photograph. The little imperfections add up. Eventually you won’t even recognize the image.

“But, consider if you just used the original every time you wanted a copy. Then you could make perfect replicas for years and years.

“That’s what this company’s technology does.

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“Its scientists have found a way to get the ‘original’ make-up of a cell. Its treatments convince the body to use the originals only, and to destroy any damaged ‘replacement’ copies.

“The industry term for this medicine is ‘RNA Interference.’

“Biologically it works like this…

“RNA is a messenger, copying genes from an old cell to a new cell. But what happens when RNA starts transmitting imperfections to the new cells? The answer is what we call aging… when these imperfections add up, and our body starts breaking down.

“But ‘RNA Interference’ stops the RNA from passing along these imperfections. It interferes with these mistakes, so your genes only pass along the blueprint of the original ‘perfect’ cell.

“In other words: All your new replacement cells can be as perfect as the original cells….

“Right now, doctors treat you by working outside in – using either invasive drugs or surgery.

“But using RNA Interference, it’s possible to treat disease by going inside out. That’s because this technology makes it possible to ‘turn off’ harmful genes.

“For example, let’s say one tiny cell in your body begins producing cancerous cells. With RNA interference, doctors can keep the cancer cell from ever reproducing.

“In other words, you can destroy the cancer inside your cells, before it starts.”

And here’s the understatement of the day:

“It’s unlikely you’ll be able to get a shot or pill in the next five to 10 years to get you to age 1,000.”

But they turn that into “still damn good” in the following sentences:

“After all, RNA Interference is still a very new technology…

“At its current level of development, we are perhaps decades away from using it to live a thousand years.

“That said, I am certain this company’s technology will be used to add as many as 60 to 70 additional healthy years to your life.”

Not bad, eh? So which company is this? Clues, please:

“… a small, American-based company, near the campus of MIT.

“This unknown company has unlocked the secrets of RNA. At this very moment, it’s administering these treatments to hundreds of Americans… But those numbers could be on the verge of a dramatic rise. And here’s why…

“We are only months away from an explosive announcement from this biotech company… One that could show up on the front page of every financial newspaper and website across the country.

“This is the start of something bigger than the introduction of flight by the Wright brothers. Even bigger than the birth of personal computers in the 1970s….

“The company I’ve been telling you about was founded by a scientist we’ll call ‘Dr. Allen.’ Dr. Allen is one of our greatest living scientists. In the 90s, he won the Nobel Prize for a different biotechnology, something called gene splicing.

“He’s also a professor at MIT and a member of the prestigious Royal Society of London, which once included Sir Isaac Newton among its members.

“But beyond his many scientific credentials, Dr. Allen is also an incredible businessman. In the late 70s, he founded a company we’ll call ‘Bio-Inc.’

“It was a tiny start-up at the time, but today that company has over $2 billion in annual revenue.

“You’ll be interested to know that Bio-Inc’s stock is up more than 7,547% since Dr. Allen founded it.”

Sounds intriguing, no? Any more little details that we can feed into the Thinkolator? Perhaps just a few …

“… only a $1.3 billion market cap …

“It owns nearly all the patents related to RNA Interference… over 700 granted patents worldwide for RNA Interference. In total, it has over 300 granted or issued patents in the world’s major pharmaceutical markets – the United States, E.U., Japan… No other company comes this close to completely controlling this technology….

…it’s arranging 30 licensing deals with pharmaceutical and biotech companies right now. And even more deals are expected soon….

“Dr. Allen’s latest company has an advisory board made up of scientists from Harvard Medical School, MIT, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research. In just three months, this company will announce incredible medical results, which could shoot its stock to the moon.”

OK … so that’s the pitch on the company — how are they going to make us rich? We’re told that there’s a catalyst coming soon — results from one of their trials:

“Dr. Allen’s company is on the verge of announcing incredible results from a Food and Drug Administration study about its top RNA Interference medicine.

“This study, conducted with the Boston University School of Medicine, will be shocking even to most doctors.

“We know. We’ve seen the earlier FDA reports for ourselves.

“The results of this announcement should lead to immediate Phase 3 approval from the Food and Drug Administration. Meaning…

“The first RNA Interference treatment of its kind will soon be commercially available in the U.S.”

“… laser-focused on a treatment for a rare ‘orphan’ disease. By taking this unusual route to get this medicine on the market, the company cut down the final approval time for its RNA medicine to as fast as 12 months.

“Specifically, Dr. Allen’s team is going after a terrible, genetic disease that more than 40,000 people are diagnosed with each year. Most die from it within three years.

“At this point, Dr. Allen’s company is winding down its Phase 2 trials treating this ‘orphan’ disease… based on early reports we’ve seen, after a single dose of this RNA medicine, patients had a 94% reduction of the protein causing this genetic disease. In other words, most of the problems were “turned off” after a single treatment. In addition, side effects were non-existent… we fully expect this treatment will almost certainly pass into final Phase 3 testing in the next three months. And when the company announces this next stage of approval, this event alone could be worth millions in profits.

“The door will be wide open for brand new medicines developed by Dr. Allen and his scientists. In fact, they’re working on five new treatments as we speak….”

So who is being teased by the Oxford Club folks here? Thinkolator sez it’s Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), which was actually one of the top teaser touts of 2012 after the folks at Casey Extraordinary Technology teased it back in May of last year at about $10 a share (it went to $18 or so at the end of the year, and recent strength has driven it to $30).

I think you probably all know well that I’m no doctor, and no scientific expert, but Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a very active developer of early stage drugs that use RNA interference or RNAi technology — they’re not the only ones, there are other competing platforms and strategies that also aim to lasso the “turn off a gene” power of tinkering with RNA, including the one that’s probably a bit more well-known, Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS). And yes, ALNY is headquartered in Cambridge, not far from MIT, and the big brain on the board is Nobel-winning RNA-splicer (and MIT faculty member) Dr. Phillip A. Sharp — the A is for Allen, in case you’re wondering where the “Dr. Allen” bit came from.

They are also expecting Phase II data from their lead trial sometime this Summer, that’s the trial for their “orphan drug” to treat TTR Amyloidosis (the drug is called ALN-TTR02 at this point), and they do see this moving into a Phase III pivotal trial by the end of the year (assuming, of course, that good results continue). This is an exceedingly rare and terrible disease with no effective therapies, so the treatment would have to be pretty bad to not at least get the drug a fighting chance. You can see the rest of the pipeline here, the goal of the company is to advance at least five compounds into advanced stage clinical trials by 2015 (they call it their “5 in 15″ campaign), which would presumably help to validate their RNAi platform and patents and technology and get other partners on board to work on other diseases.

The company has had a pretty steady drumbeat of positive-sounding announcements during the first half of this year, which has helped to spur the shares higher, and the last note I saw in their quarterly annoucements said they expect their Phase II TTR02 results by the end of June, so that’s awfully dang close to now … along with a “data rich” period of expected information being released about their preclinical and less-advanced products over the next few months. They’ve also been making the rounds of investment conferences recently, so you can check out some of those presentations here if you’re interested in hearing their pitch more directly, or the latest earnings call transcript here. That said, they’ve had plenty of periods of weaker news as well — they had a different Phase II trial fail a bit over a year ago, so these are not guaranteed compounds.

Financially, ALNY’s stock price can really only be justified because it’s a biotech stock that investors believe is creating a platform that will lead to a series of novel drugs inching closer to the market over the next several years. Their revenue is minuscule for a company that has a market cap now of almost $2 billion, and they have a couple hundred million in cash on hand but that’s only because they issued new stock this year to raise cash — they will be using all of that cash and more as their clinical development programs move forward, trials are expensive and they get more expensive as you move along to later stages (though their lead candidate, with a very small number of afflicted patients and orphan status to speed things up, may not cost as much to usher through the process as the average drug). The stock trades on sentiment about their clinical trials, and about speculation about what a real platform for RNAi drugs might mean — which almost means the share price is irrelevant, you can argue that the company is worth $500 million or $1 billion or $5 billion or whatever number in between, but it’s all based on the current drugs, all in early stages except for their lead orphan drug, continuing to show the promise of RNA. Massive returns from here, as have been achieved by a few biotechs that made the leap to becoming real “big pharma” names with real products and profits, are possible, I suppose, but that depends on the science working. And probably on a bit of luck, as well.

Oh, and yes, “Dr. Allen” was involved with one of those previous mega-successes — the stock they tease as “Bio-Inc” is Biogen-Idec (BIIB), and Dr. Sharp was the founder of Biogen. If performance like Biogen’s is the goal — and that would be a lofty goal, indeed — then it’s worth noting that even this clearly spectacular company has had some very weak periods of stock performance, so investors would have had to show either great prescience or great patience to enjoy all of that run. BIIB has been a huge success since 2000, running from $50 to almost $250 in just a couple years, and it was also hugely successful in the 1990s, running from a couple dollars in 1990 to almost $50 in 2000 … but it also had a “lost decade” there in the middle, bouncing from $35 to $70 and back again several times in the 2000s as their lead drugs showed promise and disappointment along the way.

ALNY last had a heyday for investors in the mid-2000s when their first compound were being readied for the clinic, and RNAi and SiRNA and other technologies and techniques to silence genes were just getting investors excited for really the first time. RNAi and the like have been very promising but very challenging develop for at least a decade now — that oft-cited quote that was in the ad that this is “The Greatest Medical Advance Since the Discovery of Antibiotics,” from an article in New Scientist, was published in 2005, when the first clinical trials for RNAi drugs seemed likely … it always takes longer than you think, and the FDA is always extra-worried about brand new treatments or technologies.

From what I can tell in the dumbed-down articles I’ve skimmed, the biggest issue with RNAi is how to delivery it to the right cells, a challenge that is being addressed in many different ways (intravenous, subcutaneous, oral compounds with engineered coatings, etc.).

Anything else I say about the technology or the company’s drugs in development will only further illustrate my ignorance … so I can tell you that the Oxford folks are almost certainly teasing Alnylam, but I don’t know what the news will be from their Phase II trial in the weeks (or days) ahead, how the other compounds in their “five in 15″ campaign will develop, what partnered drugs might bring in milestones in the years to come, or how strong their patent portfolio is. This is a very young science still, at least when it comes to actually developing drugs, so I can easily see a successful drug approval in a couple years, if it does indeed come, being hugely important even if this first orphan drug won’t be itself a big enough seller to “make” the company.

If you’ve been an ALNY investor or follow the stock, or just paid more attention in science class than I did, feel free to jump in and let us know what you think of this one.

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187 Responses to “Biotech Scientists Discover ‘Magic’ Keys to Immortality” (“Dr. Allen’s … RNA Interference Revolution: Your Ticket to Centuries of Health and Wealth”)


  1. this site is a mess; people do not stick to the subject but the stuff on social security and living forever is at least fun.
    As a Gemini I would like to hear more from Sankaravelyudhan Nandakumar about what the stars have in store for me. too bad he isn’t karmaswamiswami (or is he?)

    Like(2)

      • As to soc. security If I correctly recall, actual Bush/Senate proposal was to allow you to self-direct 1% of with-holding in approved investment vehicle,, T-Bills,gold CDs Gov.bonds etc.etc. with other 99% to continue going into common pot to finance whims of beloved leaders & replaced by ious for grandchildren to pay.

        Like(1)

  2. I’m in for PTN. I once had a female patient present to the ER for anorgasmia as her only complaint, so it must be serious. If you are over a certain wgt you would qualify for bariatric surgery under current insurance plans. If bremelanotide is approved, or has some effect I see no reason why it would not be part of the new health care plans. It will also have an initial price jump as the science sounds novel.

    Like(0)

  3. Myron; In re post#32 & your reply I think ‘creation’ indisputable,, question is; created by blind unreasoning chaos or intelligent person/force/alien life-form. Order out of chaos requires what? Many Godphobic I think.

    Like(1)

  4. Ref #50 Sam,
    Money Map Press also referred to a another company this week as a “Fountain of Youth”. It is Anika Therapeutics (ANIK). I’m not smart enough to link to it as it was an email so here’s the write up. Perhaps Dr. KSS can decipher this one for us? I apologize in advance for the long write up….

    “Job One here at Money Map Press is to identify “Next Big Thing” trends – and then get you out in front of those trends. One of our favorite areas to reconnoiter is the healthcare/biologics arena – and with good reason: This is usually where we uncover our best ideas. And our latest discovery is one of our best.

    You see, we just found the “Fountain of Youth.”

    What we’re actually talking about is a “youth-inducing” molecule known as Hyaluronic Acid (HA). It’s a naturally occurring, biocompatible polymer that enhances joint function. HA also coats, protects, cushions and lubricates soft tissues.

    We’re really jazzed about this for a couple of reasons. The potential market is big. There’s one specific company that stands to benefit. And there’s real-world evidence that this isn’t just the “fad of the month” that will leave hopeful investors holding the bag.

    In fact, let’s start with that story. Aging Gracefully.

    In 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) surveyed 990 villages and towns across Japan. What the WHO researchers found in one specific village – Yuzurihara – was stunning enough to launch a decade-long investigation. For one thing, there were 10 times as many folks older than 85 in Yuzurihara than anyplace you could name in North America.

    The Yuzurihara villagers had smooth skin, flexible joints and thick hair. Only a few needed reading glasses. They didn’t have wrinkles or age spots. And it was the norm for villagers to work their fields well into their 80s. And despite this outdoorsy life, there’d never been a documented case of skin cancer there.

    Yuzurihara was nicknamed the “Village of Long Life.” And researchers were determined to discover the source of this “Fountain of Youth.” Dr. Toyosuke Komori, the town doctor who penned five books on Yuzurihara, attributed the villagers’ vibrancy to diet.

    Because of the mountainous terrain, the Yuzurihara people were unable to grow rice – a dietary staple throughout Southeast Asia. That forced the villagers to depend on a diet that contains little meat, but is high on homegrown sticky starches: Satsumaimo, a type of sweet potato; satoimo, a sticky white potato; konyaku, a gelatinous root vegetable concoction; and imoji, a potato root.

    It’s also high on hyaluronic acid. Komori, now 80, believes his own healthy longevity was due to his having embraced the villagers’ diet. “I feel very strongly that if I had not come here to Yuzurihara, I would not have lived this long and healthy a life,” he says. “I probably would have died from some adult disease.”

    Science Steps In

    Building on Dr. Komori’s findings, biologics researchers stepped in and found ways to transform the HA polymer into a medically useable compound. In fact, the polymer has gained a strong reputation as the “healing” molecule used in numerous medical procedures.

    Take the emerging science of “Orthobiologics.” In this biotech sub-sector, orthopedic surgeons use HA to help injuries heal more quickly. Researchers combine the human body’s natural healing capabilities with stem-cell therapies and advanced medical technologies in a manner that makes it possible to repair and heal orthopedic injuries that range from osteoarthritis to sports-induced afflictions. For advanced osteoarthritis patients, the benefits of this approach are massive.

    Instead of joint-replacement surgery, patients can rely on so-called “visco-supplementation,” a non-invasive procedure that utilizes the healing power of the hyaluronic acid in a fight against osteoarthritis. And the benefits of HA don’t stop there.

    A modified HA molecule is used in a variety of other applications, including soft-tissue and bone regeneration, wound-treatment solutions, surgical-adhesion, dermal-aesthetics and ophthalmic surgery. This is already a big business.

    According to GBI Research, the worldwide orthobiologics market will reach $9.6 billion in 2016. That works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from the $4 billion recorded back in 2009. The growth drivers are all there – including such osteoarthritis catalysts as a growing elderly population and surging obesity rates.

    With 50% of osteoarthritis cases, the U.S. market will account for $6 billion of that $9.6 billion – representing the single-biggest opportunity for new treatments and therapeutics. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 52.5 million adults suffer from arthritis, while more than 50% of people 65 and over suffer from osteoarthritis.

    Clearly, this “Fountain of Youth” molecule is a very real investment opportunity. And one company is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the transformational potential of hyaluronic acid. We’re talking about the Woburn, Mass.-based Anika Therapeutics Inc. (NasdaqGS: ANIK), a biotech manufacturer of highly purified, high-molecular-weight HA products. A Pioneer in Therapeutics

    With more than 20 years’ experience in HA technology, Anika is a pioneer in developing therapeutic products for a variety of uses. The company’s HA-based products cover a broad range of therapeutics, including orthobiologics and dermal, ophthalmic, veterinary and surgical applications. Anika’s “bread-and-butter” is the proprietary purification-and-formulation processes used to consistently produce high quality HA products.

    It is useful to know that the highest-molecular-weight “hyaluronans” are more effective than low-molecular-weight hyaluronans. Efficacy, in turn, translates into a superior product and wider range of applications, which will allow Anika to diversify its product portfolio and exploit different growth opportunities.

    Make no mistake: Anika is an innovative company whose ability to generate future growth will depend upon the successful leverage of its proprietary HA formulation-and-production processes. Anika will continue to innovate and fundamentally change the orthobiologics and aesthetic-dermatology market forever.

    The firm’s latest financial results paint a vivid picture of a breakthrough quarter.
    The “Fountain of Youth Formula” generated a 200% increase in third-quarter net income on a year-over-year basis, while total revenue surged an impressive 20%. Product gross profit jumped 70% as a result of favorable product mix, while international sales alone are up 83% so far this year.

    These are record results for the firm, and underscore the company’s strong momentum. It comes as no surprise, then, that firm’s flagship product, ORTHOVISC, an injectable HA compound used to treat osteoarthritis of the knee, currently holds the No. 1 position in the domestic multi-injection segment.

    ORTHOVISC is the only FDA-approved compound using hyaluronan. All other pain medications in this class are derived from birds and can give some people allergic reactions. Currently, ORTHOVISC is only approved to treat knee problems in the U.S. market. But that alone is a very lucrative market.

    Fact is, with the graying of America, millions of us suffer from knee pain. Indeed, a recent study by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) found that total knee replacement surgery – the most drastic action for this type of pain – surged 161% between 1991 and 2010.

    If anything, the JAMA article understates the true magnitude of knee problems.
    The authors only studied federally funded Medicare beneficiaries, meaning their study group consisted chiefly of folks 65 and over.

    That means the true number of full knee replacements could be much higher than the 3.2 million performed during the study period. Those surgeries cost between $11,000 and $46,000 each. If we just take an “average” price of $28,500, we find that Medicare surgeries alone cost as much $91.2 billion in those two decades, or more than $4 billion a year.

    Given that there are roughly 70 million Baby Boomers in the United States born between 1946 and 1964, reducing the number of knee surgeries could help lower healthcare costs. It also would help millions avoid the often-painful rehab process required after these operations. And the story gets better from there.

    Why We See Huge Gains

    Anika has found a way to expand HA sales outside the U.S. market. The firm has received medical approval in Europe to sell ORTHOVISC for use in other joints, like the elbow, shoulder and wrists. (In Europe, Anika also sells a version of ORTHOVISC for use in smaller joints, like the thumb and big toes.)

    These versions of ORTHOVISC illustrate the potential for Anika’s Orthobiologics business, which saw sales zoom 40% on a year-over-year basis to reach $40.6 million in the first nine months of the current fiscal year. And the third quarter by itself was a total blowout. Sales rose 20% to $17.8 million, but net income jumped roughly 200% from the year-ago period to reach $4.9 million.

    At the same time, Anika is using HA to make inroads in the aesthetic dermatology market. Anika entered this field in 2007 with ELEVESS, an injectable filler that corrects lines and wrinkles on the face. Anika notes this is the first HA-based dermal filler to incorporate the anesthetic lidocaine to improve patient comfort. ELEVESS is approved for use in the nasolabial folds, more commonly referred to as “laugh” or “smile lines.”

    This also is a potentially large market for Anika. Researcher Kalorama Information says the facial-rejuvenation market reached $3.2 billion in 2012, up 9% in two years. Analysts say ELEVESS could pick up sales from industry leader Botox, a product from Allergan Inc. (NYSE:AGN). Allergan is projecting total 2013 sales of Botox at about $1.8 billion, about half of which stems from the aesthetic market.

    So, even if Anika made a small dent in Botox sales it could mean a huge influx of cash for the small company. In addition to the growth, Anika is also boosting its operating efficiency. Most recently, the company shuttered an unprofitable tissue-engineering operation in Italy.

    For investors, this is both a favorable move and an encouraging signal. It demonstrates that the company is conserving its capital and devoting its resources to products and ventures that can generate real returns. With a Price/Earning (P/E) ratio of 25, the market has high expectations for Anika. A lot of their future success is already priced into the stock.

    But here’s the kicker … Even with a P/E of 25, the market is underestimating Anika’s growth potential.

    Assuming continued product-revenue growth in both the orthobiologics and aesthetic-dermatology market, we estimate that Anika will earn at least $1.50 a share next year. With a continued P/E of 25, the earnings per share (EPS) of $1.50 implies a stock price of $37.50 – a 19% gain from current levels. But this is actually a highly conservative scenario. First, we believe that Anika is going to earn more than $1.50 a share next year. And Allergan, Anika’s closest competitor, is currently trading at 28 times next year’s earnings.

    An in-line multiple of 28 and a conservative 2014 EPS number of $1.50 leads us to a $42 stock price (P/E of 28 x EPS of $1.50 = $42 projected share price). That’s just slightly above the current market consensus of $41 a share, and represents a 12-month gain of 32% from current levels. It’s also well below its 52-week high of $39.40.

    The markets that Anika serves are expected to grow at a 15% annual rate for the next several years. And we’ve shown you how the company is going to grow faster than the market. So that 32% gain in the next year is just the start – and may be conservative, too.

    Like any small-cap biotech, this is going to be a higher-risk play – especially in the whipsaw market we’re currently flying through. But this is a real company with real products – meaning we’re not waiting for the outcome of some clinical trial, or a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) ruling.

    And that means Anika could deliver the kind of market-beating gains that will keep you young.

    Like(0)

      • I can definitely see no reason to be in Anika. It looks overpriced in fact. The yarn about the enchanted Japanese village with its special diet is just so much malarkey as we are always hearing from the diet/supplement/natural crowd. Dietary hyaluronic acid makes not a whit of difference in anything. HA is made by the body. HA products have been around for ages and are made by other companies. To compare Anika with a high-flier that knows how to execute well like Allergan is just crazy.

        Like(2)

    • Frank, legitimate, yes, but also heinously overpriced at present. Alnylam has put the bulk of its effort into commercialization of silencing RNA for transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis. Do you have any idea how rare that is? They are very unlikely to recoup development costs. Moreover, their approach to this elides the fact that this condition is curable by stem cell transplantation. ALNY has yet to demonstrate really long-term efficacy. There is tremendous concern that its approach, the exogenous administration of naked RNA, will stimulate Toll-like receptors and thus lead to autoimmune phenomena. Would you rather have the problem fixed or take shots twice monthly of a dumbfoundingly expensive drug?

      Like(0)

  5. Bernie Sanders…taxing the rich, ..? Were we talking about investments, or did I stumble into a rabbit hole and end up in a Marxist commune reading Das Kapital ?
    In my 60’s, I plan on collecting SS for as long as I paid into it, or taking my gold & heading to South America.
    Adios.

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    • Paul I think that is most sensible statement. As one nearing end of run I think ” no-one gets out of this world alive” agrees with science which seems to show each generation accumulates defect in genes,which does much to explain increase in dis-ease. Too often I think we address symptoms & not cause. To reiterate prior statement in this thread ,do not expect miracles from this company.

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      • Merci beaucoup Frank.
        The problem is that people only look at the length of life, not the quality. What point would there be to living, say, 1000 years, and be demented for 920 of them?
        This research is a symptom of the “me” society. “Who care if there’s not enough room or resources for future generations, as long as I can get money now for some supposed fountain of youth?” is what they are really saying. But there is no fountain of youth, only fountains of stupidity.
        We have a similar mindset with politicians, spending now, with no regard to future generation who will have to foot the bill. Selfishness gone mad.

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      • Frank: You hit the nail on the head, “Too often I think we address symptoms & not cause” and just maybe part of our education on living a healthy lifestyle is learning what doctors don’t tell us! http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Wellness/things-doctors-telling/story?id=16175754

        If you follow all the treads offered in the essay you may just become a little more sceptical about medical procedures.

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  6. WOW to all the above. I would like to see a fundamental analysis coupled with management analysis of the few companies suggested that not only have a winning drug potential, but also the know how to take it to level 1), 2), and level 3. Business plans are great but the manipulation of funding and dilution with the usual talk of “investor shareholder value” are usually smoke screens to cover managers and their greed to take profits while we look on with unusual amounts of fear hope and greed. Good way to lose money unless you can figure the way a company is going over the long haul. For this reason I am normally a short term investor and take profits, while I hope to find a winner in the long term somewhere. Thanks to all you who follow Travis’ analysis to find the few winners.

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    • David ; I think you are wise to question. I fear many companies exist only to generate wealth for their executives & board of directors. It is much easier to lose money than to gain it. As to greed , as usually used I think everyone greedy in wanting “more”. We all need more during life, that’s why we invest even if only for descendants.

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  7. Myron #4 replies. Not meaning to be at all rude (I have great respect for your musings on mining as you will know….but here comes the ‘but’) but….. your reply encapsulates your general theme of returning to something like a gold standard. As many writers have said, we are running up a debt for future generations that can never be repaid. Thats ‘never’ if currency stays the same value. However, all babies are born into this world without a penny in their pocket. So whether a $ buys them a home or a stick of gum is irrelevant to them so long as their wages are relative to cost of living. A v simple way to reducing their inherited debt is to devalue it in real terms………… a trillion now buys a stick of gum and they earn a grillion pm in wages. This places the loss/devaluation on what the previous generation has saved. I see no other way to reduce the debt and get those that have caused the problem to pick up the tab. Have you got a different solution?
    Rgs Alan H

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      • The answer to the debt is to plow into the corruption, which, like sucker weeds when cut, will create a wild growth spurt in our fine native soil. Look at overspeculation and corruption in real estate as well as medicaid fraud in Florida. Where is the majority of it occurring? You guessed it: South Florida. We have a lot of crooks in every state, and they reside and thrive in Democrat counties. How about voter fraud in Florida? South Florida. Prescription drug abuse? Yes, yes, yes. The problem with the inner cities isn’t fatherlessness (as conservatives like to say) or a lack of jobs (Democrats), it’s drugs, hard drugs, and a drug culture that has grown up around it that normalizes the bizarre. You can’t hold a job if you’re addicted. Addiction creates a mindset of dependence. It takes a year to flush it out your brain. So what do Democrats do? Legalize and promote marijuana while the addictionologists sigh with horror over the insanity and with delight that they will be in business a long, long time. If we deal forcefully with these problems, the USA will bloom again. The weight of these problems and drag on our economies is very consequential. We’re just used to it. The Democrats are sugar daddies who are addicted to power. Government needs to drug test every citizen in the inner city on welfare, regularly, for a period of years, and then push them out of the nest!

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        • However, your thoughts are not backed up by actual statistics: true as it is that holding a job while addicted is very difficult, if not impossible, your remedies target the wrong folks and do nothing to solve addiction, just put the addicted out on the streets where crime is the only option. Look at Portugal, where almost all drugs have been decriminalized: http://bit.ly/1qsbfh8 (“No drug policy, Zobel says, can genuinely prevent people from taking drugs — at least, he is not familiar with any model that works this way. As for Portugal, Zobel says, “This is working. Drug consumption has not increased severely. There is no mass chaos. For me as an evaluator, that’s a very good outcome.””)
          And here is a Massachusetts town’s approach to a growing wave of heroin addiction and death: http://bit.ly/1MRKzAu — offering detox programs, not jail, and using drug-forfeiture profits to supply Narcan: “We will save lives with the money from the pockets of those who would take them. We recognize that nasal narcan is not the answer, but it is saving lives and no one in this City will be denied a life saving drug for this disease just because of a lack of insurance.”

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    • Alan: Sorry I even got involved in this thread, holds ZERO interest for me, I.E the forum we are on. If you want to address anything to do with your subject I would appreciate your posting on one of my columns where it would be relevant to the themes being addressed.

      In view of the fact that several bankers have died recently under very mysterious circumstances, and some commentators even stating they believe they were murdered because they “knew too much” in respect to bullion bank manipulations of gold and silver, (I know, reeks of conspiracy theories) the fact remains that our fractional reserve banking system is a mathematical impossibility without the creation of un-payable debt, in other words by definition, (a “PONZI “scheme) that will eventually blow up. You ask for a different solution, well there are several choices, allow it to play out until total collapse (CHAOS) forces the powers that be to come up with a better solution. Is that likely? NO because they will not voluntarily give up the control and profit potential they now have. Before I spend the time to offer a real solution, (which I won’tin this forum), let me ask you some questions, then I will decide whether an in depth answer is even worth my time to postulate.

      QUESTION: By what standard or thought process should our trading medium (currency) be brought into existence as DEBT, do the bankers doing this own the natural resources from which the addition of human labour produces wealth? By what divine right do certain “ELITES” calling themselves “bankers” have a monopoly on creating currency out of “thin air” and charging interest on it? What exactly is MONEY, and what is its legal definition?
      Do you even know the difference between money and currency?

      You stated; “all babies are born into this world without a penny in their pocket.” so given that fact, should it not be self-evident that there is something drastically wrong, even EVIL, enough that we should change the system in a way that unborn generations are not burdened with debt they had no responsibility for? No wonder a baby cries when it is born. You would too if informed that you owed $50,000, (or whatever the current figure now is) the moment you took your first breath, and that you would have to work hard all your life just to earn enough to survive while the amount you are taxed never really reduces the tax burden and the accumulated debt will be passed on to your children and grandchildren, is that really what we want or deserve? There is an answer, but it would be very disruptive and require a different mindset, if not an actual change in human nature.

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      • My first thought is ‘Balone’ You are answering questions with questions……still youre the guru and I accept this is the wrong forum so will move to youre next thread. Rgs AH

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      • Bloomberg on FRI Feb 28 reads to the main stream what was talked about in columns in quite a few blogs Sprott Embry, Theodore Russell, etc that spoke and continue to speak to the truth that comex would take over a month to settle the shorts on gold. By whom the Cartel of Bullion banks. there are 5 big ones. Talk about a short squeeze coming. I think the Chinese are importing about a year of output of all gold co. each year ,they are going to try and be the reserve currency, perhaps joined by the euro. I totally agree with Myron. That’s the main reason they are importing 1300 tons a year and all of the product that is mined in their country has to be sold to the gov. Then they send out copious reports about their citizens buying gold, I think to put people off of what they are doing. The US is supposed to have 10 tons of gold reserve. I personally doubt that it has that much, but the point is soon China will have equivelance or superioriority in tons.They are not trying to destabalize the Dollar because they are owed a $trillion in Treasury bills & they want to be payed back. China is already using the yuan for doing business & the euro etc. Don’t be surprised when China has more gold than the US
        or Germany Or France and starts using there own currency backed by gold as the reserve. Can you imagine what would happen. I digress, sorry, Bloomberg brought it to the mainstream on Fri. ; they are trying to decide If they will investigate Price Fixing by the( CARTEL) their word, the Big Buillion Banks. I wonder when they check out Fort Knox & find only IOU’S IN THE FORM OF SHORTS. Germany asked for their gold back that was being stored in the states last year , and they were told it would take a couple of years or so. that’s not a confidence booster in how much Physical gold they really have. They say 10 tons

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  8. On reflection , please excuse ramblings of old man in re. post 60 . I think that Muslim, Christian ,Israeli find no offense in re. God of Abram, others may, I think agree that forces unseen & unseeable affect our lives. Atheists may dis-agree that is indeed your ‘right’ however I think you don’t have a prayer.

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  9. Um, could it be presumed that if people were going to live till 1000 years of age that we could expect the payments to not start for those interested in getting them until they’re AT LEAST 500 years old? Wouldn’t that just totally screw-up the economy in the sense that no younger people could ever get jobs because those that would’ve died and been replaced by younger workers wouldn’t be dying to provide a job for the younger generation? There’s such a cluster screw-up of messing around with the economy with EVERY decision we make going forward as to make ANY “normal” economic sense of it has LONG since passed. I teach economics to high school students. I teach a chapter, they take a test, … and then I tell them the REAL version of economics! :-)

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  10. I find it interesting that the debate between drug (medical) therapies and alternative methods of healing via natural supplements which was about a 50/50 split in the original columns has drastically changed since Dr KSS has (taken over) and become a separate columnist. Now that bio-techology stocks are being touted offering the potential for profits it would seem those who like me are critics of the medical profession have simply disappeared, they no longer comment. Maybe there should be an alternative medicine column that offers people so inclined professional guidance on the best alternative therapies, and I have a nominee who is also a board certified practicing MD who is NOT dismissive of natural therapies, a doctor that uses drugs primarily in “last ditch” efforts and admits that natural therapies are mostly cheaper, more effective and definitely SAFER.
    While I have raised 5 healthy children, have dealt with numerous health problems within the family by natural means and have never had a “family physician” if I could find a board certified medical doctor within reasonable driving distance with the outlook expressed in the following video, I would be a potential client. Why take dangerous drugs, (even Aspirin kills 10,000’s yearly) when simple natural and safe natural therapies have been proven effective?

    http://www.doctorshealthpress.com/offers/?LPID=40&dept=EH&sb=CAPHILL&sdate=03162014

    I certainly do not have the medical training that Dr. KSS has and readily admit that he may well be an expert on DISEASE, which is the focus of medical training, but BALANCE requires a focus on HEALTH that is centred on education and most importantly PREVENTION of diseases by identifying and removing the CAUSES by changes in destructive lifestyles.
    While they may be RARE, there are board certified MD’a willing to buck the system by using natural therapies predominantly and resorting to drugs and surgery only in urgent and extreme cases. At the very least you should hear this guy out and see whether his thesis makes sense to you? His offer of sending you numerous specific reports on natural ways to deal with specific diseases, plus a copy of his monthly HEALTH letter for only $1. with no further obligation after 30 days if you are not impressed by what you get seems like a no-brainer for any open minded person. Surely any debate deserves an open minded look at both sides of a story, what have you got to lose by taking a look? If you were buying a car, would it be rational to shut your eyes and ears to the advertising of all but one company to which you are predisposed? As the late Paul Harvey might have said, you need to hear the “rest of the story” and the above video presents it very well.

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    • Come, come now Myron. You are our (much respected) mining specialist. As a pro, you will know that its far better to ask a question than hold out a long held belief set as fact (however formed). Questions elicit answers that educate (all). Imagine if I pronounced ‘They are digging for ice under the pyramids…..trust me, I read it in the National Enquirer….Egypt needs that water source….its gonna be mega.’ Should the team believe me? Surely better that I asked our expert ‘Myron, please tell me, do you think digging for ice under….is a viable idea?
      Here we have two GS columnists pronouncing….does it fill me with confidence in GS? Or should I sign up with Motley where they have 10 columnists in conflict. Each to their own subject for pronouncements…….but anyone can ask (even a trap) question. Just be careful not to reach for the cheese!

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    • Even though I am now a psychiatrist, years ago as a primary care physician, I headed up a holistic medical clinic and have some knowledge of “natural” medical cures. Natural cures are not necessary more effective or safer, but, for the most part cheaper. Good research in this area is sorely lacking and in fact many so called cures have been debunked by studies from the NIH and others, (Gingko Biloba and glucosamine/chondroitin to name a few.) And many herbs, etc can be toxic. And sometimes people believe so strongly in alternative means that they die rather than seek medical care (that happened to a patient of mine and it was sad). It is not that I am advocating for allopathic remedies, either. For the most part, most people have self limiting medical problems and would eventually go away with time. And many physicians do more harm than good (antibiotics for colds, etc.) But please don’t be fooled into thinking natural cures and more effective and safer.

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    • Give me a few months and I might have an answer for you. As an Agora Reserve member (LIFETIME) I just confirmed to-day that I am am the list to receive this new newsletter from Agora, will give you my evaluation after having paper traded it for a few months.

      Like(1)

    • “””””….there are 36 “magic dates” over the next 12 months that act as little-known price triggers for some of the hottest stocks on Wall Street. These dates refer to when certain drugs are expected to be approved by the FDA. But don’t worry. We’ll analyze and alert you to only the very best of all these stocks and trigger-dates.

      The “Magic Calendar” is a critical part of a system that has to do with Agora Financial’s FDA Trader’s first portfo­lio category: PDUFA Booster Shots.”””

      Like(0)

  11. So, if you believe in this hype, put your money where you belief is – cash in your life insurance policy now, and investit all in ALNY.

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  12. Fantastic article. Thank you. I was about to do the very same research using the clues in that affiliate marketing piece and your article came up first. Hooray! You did the research for me and approached it intelligently. You gave a report, too. Excellent. You saved me time and money. The responses have all been intelligent, too. You have a new fan!! Yes, it’s me. Your biggest fan as of right now. Thanks again!

    And thank you to all of those who shared about other stocks that are doing well. I am off to do more research on those now! ; )

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  13. I just sat through a current Oxford Club presentation on ALNY. The presenter did not try very hard to disguise the company (he mentioned that a senior executive was at MIT and had a Nobel for gene splicing, whatever that is) which meant that it took at most five minutes for a reader without access to the Mighty Thinkolater to run down. However, the argument made was that ALNY had locked up “nearly” all of the patents for working with RNA to turn off degraded forms of DNA in new cells (or something). In any case, in those of Dr. KSS’s relatively rare references to ALNY that I have been able to find, he suggests that ALNY is one of several firms working on the technology. Dr, KSS, you might enjoy the Oxford Club’s presentation which I think can be found athttp://pro.oxfordclub.com/BIOTECH49BRKIUP/EOXFR125/?email=Harpswell%40aol.com&a=34&o=1012&s=1063&u=160333&l=4982&r=MC&g=0&h=true or somewhere similar. Of course, we would all like to hear Dr KSS’s thoughts on the firm

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    • Back to the original subject. One small problem working another XXXX years to be able to afford to love that long?
      Mentally AT THIS TIME it is impossible !!!!!!!!!!!!
      I THINK I WILL STAY WITH ENJOYING LIFE AND MY RETIREMENT. (As long as my money holds out.)

      Like(0)

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