“Jack Morgan’s Single Best Investment for 2007”

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | April 27, 2007 4:49 pm

So that’s an attention-getting claim, eh?

Wait, it gets better.

This one comes to us from Porter Stansberry[1] at Phase 1 Investor, who would like us to pony up … get ready for it … $5,000 for entry into the exclusive group of investors who are going to find out — in a report released today, Friday April 27th at 3pm, the full details of the “Single Best Investment for 2007.”

So I’d like to know what they think this “best investment” is … but I’m not so much interested in spending five large for that info. Thank goodness for me, I’m the Gumshoe … and thank goodness for you, I’m happy to share the name of this company that I sleuthed out.

And I hope they won’t take offense that the Gumshoe will be beating them to the punch by a few hours.

So what does Stansberry tell us about this firm?

(It’s very exclusive, so I hope you’ve got your top hat and tails at hand.)

This is a natural resources investment bank, listed in London. One of the major owners who holds about 9% of the company, is referred to, pseudonymously, as Jack Morgan … and he gave a presentation to the Stansberry folks in Naples, Florida, with details about this company.

The argument for this firm’s growth is essentially that they have great management, that they have a pipeline of excellent commodity-related deals thanks to the worldwide commodities boom, that they have a new deal to expand in Asia[2], and that the companies they’re interested in will want to list in London instead of the US or elsewhere, which means more business for this bank.

Here are some of the details shared about the company … or as I like to call them, “clues”:

• market cap of less than $200 million
• No debt and lots of cash (and prodigous cash generation)
• “just announced plans to expand their business in Asia.”
• “Last year they raised $268 million dollars in 14 offerings. Their income from all those deals was $15 million dollars – an amount 167% greater than what they took home in 2005.”

And of course, the exclusive part: “Because shares of this European-based company are so thinly traded, we’re releasing our report on Jack Morgan’s company this Friday, to just 1% of our readers.”

Some quotes regarding management of this firm:

“The business was started by a former stockbroker and financial journalist for the Financial Times. Over the years he’s managed investment banking companies in Australia[3], North America and the U.K. He’s also served as a Director of over 20 companies – mostly in the gold[4] and mineral resources sector.”

“He joined forces with an exceptional team of investment bankers from JP Morgan’s Metals & Mining Desk. These guys spent their careers, (some 20 plus years), advising major natural resource companies like BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, and Glencore on acquisitions and capital markets.”

And just to whet your appetite:

“While their investment banking income has been solidly growing, I expect it to easily rise by 400%-500% over the next few years” — based largely on the expected Asian business.

Part of the argument for investing in this company is that they actually own controlling interests in a large number of early stage commodity companies — these are the ones they mention in the email:

“A low cost gold explorer… Right now, this company controls the 1st large scale gold mine ever developed in Egypt… over 8 million ounces are projected.”

“A platinum[5] mining company… [with] projects in an area of South Africa[6] which produces 80% of the world’s platinum.”

“An iron mining company. This group has an 80% interest in 100 million tons of iron ore[7] in Canada[8].”

“A gold mining[9] company with key projects in Uruguay.”

So what is the name of this investment bank? What is the single best investment for 2007, according to the Phase 1 Investor folks?

The Gumshoe had to pull the trusty Thinkolator 6500 out of the closet for this one, but I can tell you that this firm is …

Ambrian Capital (AMNZF on the pink sheets, AMBR in London)

There are many points to confirm this, but here are just a couple:

The co-founder and current Executive Chairman of the company is Malcolm Burne, who is indeed a former FT journalist and stockbroker.

The executive team does indeed include the folks from J.P. Morgan that are noted above — including Thomas Gaffney, former director of that “metals and mining” team and the current Ambrian CEO. You can confirm this in their annual reports if you like, accessible here[10]. (Don’t forget to come back!)

And the “recent asian expansion” news is the deal by Sun Hung Kai & Co to buy about 9% of the company and cooperate with them on developing deals in China[11] and elsewhere. The press release is here[12].

And the special Stock Gumshoe bonus of the day is the list of names of the companies that they noted as key portfolio holdings for this bank:

The platinum mining company is Jubilee Platinum.

The Egyptian gold investment is Centamin Egypt.

The Uruguay company is Uruguay Mineral Exploration, Inc.

The iron mining company is Anglesey Mining.

So there you have it! This is indeed a small company, and though the folks in charge do have good credentials I know not much else about them or their competitive positioning. My sense is that if you believe the current mania for commodity-related companies is going to continue, then Ambrian could very well do great on the back of that. After all, when there’s a rush of investment in a sector the investment bankers generally get fat.

So go forth and researchify for yourselves — at least now you know that the company Stansberry and Associates believes to be the single best investment for 2007-2008 is Ambrian Capital … whether or not they’re right, well, only the passage of time will tell. And whether it’s worth an investment, only you can tell.

And to be fair, you do get more for your subscription to Phase 1’s special deal than just the name of the company — they’ll give you a report, and let you sit in on a conference call with company insiders that they’ll be hosting next week. Maybe that’s worth the money to you.

But for the rest of you, now you’ve got $5,000 you wouldn’t have had if you signed up for this newsletter. Isn’t it high time you shared your good fortune with your friendly Gumshoe? 🙂

Best of luck, and have a great weekend everyone.

[July 6 update: I personally bought some shares in Ambrian over the past week or so, as noted on my portfolio blog oneguysinvestments.com — just wanted to go back and get this disclosure in here for folks who catch this post later on. The post where I explain why I bought now is here[13], FYI]

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