I’m catching up from a long weekend away, so I’m sharing an unedited submission from one of my readers — if you were away over the weekend and missed the new posts, here are the links for you:
… and …
And new today, we’ve got another submission from Streetsifter, a longtime reader and supporter who has sent in a few writeups for us. He even writes as the Gumshoe to save me the effort of editing up his work, which I love, but you can tell it’s him because he usually throws in a few extra prods to donate to your friendly neighborhood Stock Gumshoe. I’ll be catching up on my email and seeing if there are some exciting new ideas to share with you later in the week, but for now I’m quite grateful to Streetsifter for giving me something to share with you today … I haven’t actually read this one or checked the facts, but he has always been dead-on right before. He also threw this out for review in the Stock Gumshoe Forum in case you’d like to toss your two cents on the pile (or you can always comment right here, of course).
So without further ado, for those looking for something new, a few picks sleuthed out by Streetsifter, in his words:
Stansberry and Associates is circulating yet another teaser for Rob Fannon’s Phase I Investor newsletter, which normally focuses on medical and biotech stocks, and at a subscription rate of $5,000 per year, is their most expensive newsletter. However, for a mere $1,000 you can subscribe for a three month trial run and gain access to Fannon’s special “Double Your Money in Three Years” report with the details on “two backdoor plays to the cosmetic boom”. Or you can keep reading this post and see the likely solutions to the teaser, save the $1,000, and perhaps use a small portion of the savings to help maintain this site by joining the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars.
But hey, you’re interested in solutions, not my efforts to pay the rent. So what clues does this teaser provide regarding these two cosmetic firms?
* Has no debt on their balance sheet
* Had “record breaking profits in 2007, with highest ever quarterly sales and year-over-year growth of 60%
* “In Feb. 2007, this small equipment supplier entered into a 10-year exclusive collaboration to commercialize home-use light-based devices for treatments of wrinkles, age and sun spots, cellulite, acne and hair removal.”
Company # 2
* “offers a laser-based alternative to the traditionally invasive liposuction procedure” The device is FDA approved and has been featured on EI, Access Hollywood, and Montel Williams.
* Had revenue growth of 70% in 2007
* “offers five main cosmetic systems primarily used for anti-aging procedures, vascular lesions, hair removal and cellulite reduction”
Using these clues, the Gumshoe’s trusty Thinkolator feeds us the results in reverse order, ranked by the level of confidence in the solution.
So Company #2 with the liposuction device is:
Cynosure (CYNO: NASDAQ)
The Food and Drug Administration approved Cynosure’s Smartlipo ™ device in October 2006. Their 70% revenue growth was recorded in the third quarter of 2007, and can be confirmed at in this corporate news release. And the five main cosmetic systems include Accolade™, Affirm™, Cynergy™, Elite™, and Smartlipo™.
The results for Company #1 satisfy most, but not all, of the clue criteria. So our qualified candidate for the solution is
Syneron Medical Ltd (ELOS: NASDAQ)
Syneron, based in Israel, reported in a February 12, 2008 press release, “Revenues for the fourth quarter of 2007 grew to an all-time quarterly high of $38.1 million”. The same press release refers to the ten year agreement (signed in February 2007, as per the teaser ad clue) with Proctor & Gamble for the marketing distribution of home use equipment to approve skin appearance.
There is disconnect from the teaser ad’s reference to “year-over-year growth of 60%”, however, since the Syneron 4th quarter 2007 presentation — pdf file (Slide 3 of 17) has a text box showing year-over-year sales growth of 21%. This could mean we’re on the wrong track with this solution, but based on the other match-ups, it’s likely that the overstated year-over-year sales growth in the teaser ad is the result of “promotional mathematics.”
After all, the same ad touts how another cosmetic treatment company, Palomar (PMTI), had their stock rise by 800%, conveniently neglecting to mention that the stock dropped back down to a 52 week low earlier this month. One analyst’s suggested explanation for the Palomar drop was that the public backs away from discretionary spending on cosmetic treatments when the economy is suffering, which, if accurate, would tend to support a wait-and-see approach for these Phase I picks.
Evidence yet again that you should perform your own due diligence. The Stock Gumshoe can’t tell you whether either Cynosure or Syneron will indeed “Double Your Money in Three Years.” But if you agree that these two companies are the solution to the teaser, then you can definitely enhance your savings by saving the cost of the $1,000 trial run subscription.
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