Will FT-900 Bring about the “next 9/11″ in April, 2014? What is Jeff Opdyke talking about?

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Jeff Opdyke has a pretty inflammatory ad going around these days for The Sovereign Investor, it’s all about how the consistent export of gold from the US — as reported in form FT-900 — will lead to America experiencing it’s “next 9/11″ moment in April of this year.

The basic argument is that the US Treasury Department has been secretly selling off the gold from Fort Knox for years, consistently exporting more than can be explained by the mining production and internal consumption of gold in the US, and that the global public is becoming aware of this but will be shocked into action in April.

The April date comes from the fact that he says China has tended to release information about their gold reserves only every five years or so, and they last reported their gold holdings in April, 2009. Next release, whenever (if) it comes, will call attention to the huge hoard China has been building (though it may be largely from mining, as I believe all Chinese-mined gold is required to stay in China)

Here’s what Opdyke says about the gold export anomaly:

“Here’s what I found out: Since 1991, the U.S. has been consistently exporting large quantities of gold on a net basis.

“And the amount of gold the U.S. has exported is well above and beyond what the US should be capable of exporting.

“Let me show you what I mean…

“Using data from the Gold Fields Mineral Services, the US Census Bureau, the US Mint and Bloomberg, I was able to determine the U.S. total demand and supply of gold during those 20 years.

“During that time, the U.S. had a total amount of 7,532 tons of gold available for consumption… but the U.S. consumed 7,605 tons.

“So, we consumed more than we had available to us. That implies we should have been a net importer of gold.

“But oddly enough, we were not. In fact, we exported a massive 5,504 tons.”

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I don’t know how reliably these import/export figures describe the real situation in the world, since gold is fungible and recyclable moves around the world in both paper from and in bullion form pretty easily (it doesn’t just get exported from one place, imported to another, and consumed — it could just as easily be exported again to another customer), but there are certainly plenty of folks who believe that the Treasury is hiding empty vaults at Fort Knox. They buttress this both by saying that the Federal Reserve has been dragging its feet at Germany’s request to repatriate its gold (though that’s not at Fort Knox), and by noting that many politicians over the years have asked for audits of both Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve, to no avail.

Just as an FYI, Fort Knox is the US bullion depository — it’s the gold that the government owns, managed by the Treasury Department. The Federal Reserve doesn’t have anything to do with Fort Knox, but has a separate gold bullion depository in Manhattan that is filled with gold owned by the central banks of other countries in the world … it’s the Fed-held gold that Germany has asked to have back, not Fort Knox’s gold. I don’t know if that makes any difference in the grand scheme of things, but they are separate — the US government owns only a tiny portion of the gold that’s being held by the Fed. And yes, it seems sketchy that it is going to take the Fed seven years to give Germany its physical gold back, and that they’ll be returning less than Germany holds with the Fed in New York and less than they initially wanted back within German borders — but “seems sketchy” applies to a lot of global finance, banking, and government posturing, I don’t know if that means there’s really any problem with the availability of that gold in the Fed’s vault or not.

So the basic argument from Opdyke ends up being pretty similar to Porter Stansberry’s argument that we’re on the cusp of the global economy losing faith in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and that the loss of this faith will and would mean that the dollar falls versus other currencies and against commodities, meaning imports would be more expensive for Americans and our wealth and standing in the world would be eroded. Porter also intimates that we’ll see social unrest.

There is a clean and attractive logic to all of that, and it makes some sense given the history of currencies and central banks that points to shakeups every 30, 40, 50 or 100 years, depending on who you ask — the waves of currency dominance have mostly tracked the rise and fall of global empires as the Dutch currency and Spanish currency each had a century or so of global importance before the British Pound took over in the 18th or 19th century, then the British Pound collapsed around WWI and the US dollar began to rise, followed by the gold standard being coopted in the 1930s and then abandoned in the 1970s as “fiat” currencies took over both in the US and worldwide, followed by … well, whatever happens next.

And yes, it is absolutely true that we owe much of what we take for granted — cheap imported goods, cheap energy — to the fact that pretty much everyone in the world has agreed on the dollar as their medium of exchange… and, perhaps more importantly, that we’ve been able to build up a massive debt by borrowing money in a currency whose supply we control. With it not being missed by many that we used a chunk of that borrowed money to build the most powerful military in history.

The hegemony of the dollar is clearly eroding to some degree, partly because dollars should be losing value as we print more of them in order to pay off our debts, though the dollar has held up much better than many folks expected in the last few years … arguably because most other currencies of any size seemed more dangerous, what with Greece and their ilk threatening the Euro, and China’s currency remaining under strict control, and the Japanese Yen being aggressively devalued to save that economy… etc.

I’ll leave the big picture thinking to you — I have some sympathy with the view that the US dollar should be losing value more quickly than it has, and that eventual significant devaluation is the only reasonable way to deal with our un-payable federal debt … though I also think that in the current hair-trigger world of global trading and financial engineering it’s quite possible that all of these changes happen slowly enough that the dollar doesn’t appear to crash. The logic of the dollar’s demise is almost impeccable, but logic doesn’t drive the global economy — and, as we’ve seen in the past, crises send people fleeing to the dollar even if logic tells them that the dollar is doomed. At least, so far.

And I do buy a bit of gold or silver bullion now and then to diversify my savings, I’m mindful of real assets owned by companies, and I sometimes hold foreign currencies (though I don’t have any at the moment)… but it’s worth noting that a productive company that produces or owns something important to people should be relatively agnostic, over the long term, regarding the currency in which their daily business is transacted… failing currencies wouldn’t be good for any business operating in that currency, obviously, but strong businesses have survived worse.

Porter Stansberry’s trigger point for his similarly-described collapse of the dollar is the enactment of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) this Summer — that’s the new tax and reporting regime that the US government is pushing through to improve reporting for banks and to catch more tax cheats, and that looks like it will be a big regulatory burden for banks…. and possibly a better solution to tax evasion, though I’m no expert on the details. Porter thinks that will lead banks to exit the US market and avoid the dollar. That sounds fairly extreme to me, though it will certainly impact banks if and when it’s enacted (it’s already been delayed at least once, to July 1, and many folks think the banks will keep chipping away at it and delaying it or altering it to cut out the teeth).

Otherwise, Porter is essentially spinning the same tale that he marketed extremely aggressively in his “End of America” pitch a few years ago — that you need to get into assets that you don’t have to report to the government (like American Eagle bullion coins), and get some money overseas (get a foreign bank account while you can, buy real estate in other countries), and buy farmland to protect your family, etc. etc. You can see Porter’s latest version of this spiel here if you’re so inclined.

Opdyke has a fairly similar pitch (you can see it here if you’re curious), though his trigger point is different, coming in April instead of July. The basic idea is the same: the dollar’s going to collapse, the world as you know it will change dramatically, buy something that will hold its value if the dollar falls (ie, don’t stuff your greenbacks under the mattress or in a savings account — turn them into something else).

Like Stansberry, he cites four things to do … and they’re very similar to Stansberry’s stipulations: buy precious metals, sell bonds that mature in more than five years, generate income with trading (selling options, it appears), get some of your money out of reach of the US government, and buy real estate in some select foreign countries. Frankly, it sounds kind of like Opdyke took his lead from Porter’s “End of America” spiel of a few years back and just twisted it a bit … though, to be fair, the folks who have been suggesting the decline of the American Empire have shared similar kinds of ideas for decades (and built a few newsletter-publishing empires in the process).

[And if you're curious, Porter's "World's Most Valuable Asset in a Time of Crisis" is, yes, still farmland. I'm afraid I'm going to be sticking with my farm share subscription for a while and not tilling to earth myself, but still, it's hard to argue that owning a farm is a bad thing if you've got money burning a hole in your pocket.]

Opdyke’s trigger point, that awakening to the fact that China has more gold than the US or than the Federal Reserve, will, he says, come not with a gradual change over decades but with a “bang” … he quotes an oft-cited study on this point:

“Economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff explained this phenomenon in their best-selling book ‘This Time is Different’, in which they examined hundreds of confidence crises. They call it the ‘bang’ moment. Here’s how they explain it:

‘Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence is the key factor that gives rise to the ‘this-time-is-different’ syndrome. Highly indebted governments can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang – confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.’”

So … will a future announcement about Chinese gold reserves shock the world, or will the enforcement of FATCA drive the rest of the world away from the dollar? Will the dollar collapse with a bang or continue to deflate in value with a whimper as it has for most of the past 50 years? Or even surprise everyone and go the other direction?

I dunno. And I bet geopolitical surprises will play as much of a role as central banks and interest rates. But let’s look into what investment Opdyke is teasing as a way to protect your wealth in this eventuality.

The first thing he points to is physical bullion ownership — which Porter Stansberry and several other folks also say is important, they think it’s critical that you avoid owning just “paper gold” through ETFs or through the futures market, but own actual physical gold you can touch … or, secondarily, own real, audited, allocated gold held in some (preferably foreign) vault that you can have delivered to you if and when needed. Lots of other heavily-hyped newsletters and precious metals pundits have talked up the importance of “physical” gold and silver — I think the last time we wrote about it was for a Palm Beach Letter teaser about the “paper silver” crisis.

And there are a couple more esoteric ideas in the bunch, too, that I can’t really opine on without sounding uninformed — like the foreign real estate pitch, which has him touting a few opportunities to cut taxes by relocating overseas (including a thinly-veiled hint about “Galt’s Gulch”, which is the name often given to Doug Casey’s Cafayete, Argentina expatriate haven). It all ends up sounding like solutions for the wealthy and government-averse or profoundly tax-averse, or for the young and idealistic — who else would go to the hassle of buying foreign real estate and moving halfway around the world? It just sounds exhausting. I moved my family 600 miles in search of higher taxes and worse schools, and if I never move again I’ll be awfully pleased.

Yes, I know that Porter and others say that the “normalcy bias” leads those of us in the comfortable American middle class to think that the government won’t really get that bad or confiscatory, that “they” won’t come for our gold or our retirement accounts, and that this is a throwback to the fact that so many hundreds of thousands of Jews stayed in Nazi Germany until it was too late to escape, failing to see the clear writing on the wall … but I choose to hear that as more offensive than it is prescient.

But anyway, we do eventually get to something that’s more like an “investment” thought.

One of the ideas Opdyke pitches is related to precious metals — here’s how he teases it:

“… there’s an even better way to profit from the rise of a new monetary system. It’s a gold investment few people know exist.

“A small group of investors have figured out a unique way to profit from gold. They’re striking special deals with certain companies involved in the gold industry.

“Nolan Watson, for example, started using this strategy back in 2008. So far, he’s already increased his investment by 809%. That’s enough to turn a small investment of $25,000 into almost a quarter million dollars.

“Gold expert John Doody has increased his portfolio by more than 1,200% with this strategy. And many consider him one of the best gold investors of our time.

“Here’s what he said recently:

‘I love [this investment]. You just make these deals and move on to the next one.’

“I call this strategy ‘Golden Streams.’ And it has performed much better than the metal in recent years….

“While gold is up 61% since 2008, the ‘Golden Streams’ investment is up 352%. The good news is you can also participate in these deals right from any brokerage account.

“And what’s really amazing is this special class of gold investment has nothing to do with ETFs, bars, coins, options, mutual funds or investing directly in gold miners. And yet, it has managed to beat all those types of gold investments.

“While ‘Golden Streams’ have performed extremely well in recent years, I expect them to go parabolic once investors lose faith in the dollar.

“Even if gold moves to just $3,000 an ounce, I expect this investment will move more than 700%. That’s enough to turn each $20,000 into a little more than $165,000.”

Sound familiar? Yes, indeedy — Opdyke is teasing the old streaming/royalty concept in precious metals. Which, frankly, is my favorite way to invest in mining as well — but it’s been awful over the last year, getting much the same downside as the actual large mining stocks and falling worse than the price of gold. In general industry parlance, Streaming refers to usually larger investments made in “almost ready to produce or expand” mining operations that give the buyer the right to buy a substantial portion (typically 8-30% or so) of the gold (or silver) mined at a set price, typically fixed at roughly a third of what the then-current commodity price is.

This strategy was developed and commercialized by Silver Wheaton (SLW), which made streaming deals for silver with big non-silver mines (silver being a valuable byproduct that the miners could monetize by pre-selling it to SLW). Nolan Watson was the CFO at Silver Wheaton when they perfected this model, and later went on to found Sandstorm Gold (SAND, SSL in Canada), which is presumably one of the stocks being teased here, and Sandstorm Metals and Energy (SND in Canada, STTYF on the pink sheets), which focuses on base metals (and is still a bit of a train wreck after some bad deals). Sandstorm Gold continues to be my largest mining investment and largest and preferred gold equity investment, but it’s sure been a rough ride as gold has fallen.

Royalties are often the result of investments made into a mining project at a much earlier stage, or of early work by a prospector or settlement to a land owner, and if bought they cost the investor less than streaming deals, and they yield a flat percentage-of-the-gold (or other metal) produced that’s typically far smaller (1-5% or so). The two largest passive gold mining investment companies are mostly royalty owners, Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Royal Gold (RGLD), though they also do both own some streaming deals and some non-gold assets.

So it’s hard to picture a world in which those aren’t the three “Golden Streams” investments Opdyke teases, if only because they’re by far the largest and most accomplished and viable of the existing royalty/streaming companies that are gold-focused — unless you throw in Silver Wheaton in place of one of those to get your silver exposure instead of gold (SLW has a little gold exposure too, but it’s very small)… SLW has been by far the most volatile of the four over the years, but is also by far the largest (the volatility comes largely from the fact that silver has almost always been much more volatile than gold). All four of those streaming/royalty firms are up since 2010 or so … but all are also down considerably (dramatically, even) from their highs of late 2012, when all the world seemed to think that gold and silver were simply not allowed to fall in price. Leverage is fun when prices are moving up and a $100 move in the price of gold causes your stock to go up to 20 or 30% in a month or two, but when gold falls 25% that same leverage means your stock can fall by 50%, sometimes more.

The John Doody quote, by the way, is from a conference call the Phase 1 Investor folks had with Nolan Watson, SAND’s CEO, when they recommended that stock a couple years ago — we covered their teaser pitch for it at the time, but Sandstorm Gold has since put the transcript up online here.

And yes, Opdyke and I aren’t the only ones who like the idea of these “passive” precious metals investments — the benefit of royalties and streaming deals is that you don’t have to worry too much about cost inflation in mining, or about delays in mine development causing a cash crisis or dilution … on the flip side, the downside of these kinds of deals is that same passivity — you end up pretty stuck if the operator is desperate for cash or losing money and can’t finish building the mine, or simply decides to shut the mine down for a while if prices are low. Diversification should help with that, as will counting on Sandstorm or Royal Gold or Franco-Nevada to choose projects wisely, projects that are sustainable and profitable and low-cost, with potential upside from future exploration or expansion … but it does sometimes backfire on the royalty or streaming deal owner if a few partners go bad at once. That’s how Sandstorm Metals & Energy got into trouble a while back, and it’s hitting Sandstorm Gold a little bit right now — the larger RGLD, SLW and FNV are reliant on a few tentpole projects but otherwise are far more diversified than the smaller SAND.

So … all that gives you something to chew on when it comes to the “big picture” stuff … and at least a few royalty and streaming stocks to consider that are likely Jeff Opdyke’s three “Golden Streams.” Got an opinion on any of it? Well, what are you waiting for? That friendly little comment box below isn’t going to fill itself …

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188 Responses to Will FT-900 Bring about the “next 9/11″ in April, 2014? What is Jeff Opdyke talking about?


  1. Gold should be traded at (max) $800 an ounce. The $US dollar will continue to be strengthened for years to come (especially when the US start exporting LNG). Opdyke and Porter are self serving investors.

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    • Not sure about that gold thesis.
      Check out the book Gold Wars: Battle for the Global Economy – trending on Amazon.
      It’s good on specifics of manipulation and FRN strains, but doesn’t prognosticate on outcomes too much.

      Dollar will continue to slowly decline while China accumulates gold. China will gradually put the Rem into global circulation with a gold backing and bid for the world reserve currency status. With the BRICS rising power and the disgust at US actions and hegemony, they will likely win the day, but it will play out fairly slowly.
      my $.02

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    • Stansberry is a fraud (has been sued by SEC. His mentor, Mark Ford is an even greater fraud…you can google him…he even changed his name.

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      • Blah Blah Blah. I have followed much of advice and made a lot of money. And I mean a lot. I am amazed at how much S&A bashing goes on here. Perhaps jealousy. I could care less what “he” is or is not. I’m laughing all the way to the bank.

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          • There is noting wrong with “I could care less.” It is the subjunctive.

            This least understood and and most badly used part of the English language can yet be highly expressive. Many professional grammarians do not have a feel for it, thus the endless, pointless and boring arguments about “I could care less.”

            The subjunctive is used to express wishes, possibilities, no possibility, hypothetical situations and all the things that are not completely real. Could, would and should are words that often express the subjunctive. In the phrase, “I could care less,” the speaker is saying that there is no possibility for him or her to care any less about this matter. It is similar to saying, “Could I forget.” meaning there is no possibility of forgetting.

            The subjunctive is often used to express irony, by comparing an wished for situation to reality as in, “You should be so lucky.” Detractors say that the two phrases (could care and couldn’t care) are are the same just that “couldn’t care” is correct. This is not true. There is a touch of irony in the phrase, “I could care less,” meaning hat the speaker would like to care less but it is impossible. You don’t get that with, “I couldn’t care less.”

            But regardless of all that, it is an accepted idiom in all the standard dictionaries – even in British dictionaries.

            So if you don’t like it, should I care?

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      • Sounds like sour grapes to me. I have made a lot of money with them. So either I am delerious or you are an idiot.

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    • Yes indeed,, a $17.5 Trillion debt should certainly inspire confidence in the U.S. dollar which has already lost at minimum, 95% of its original purchasing power. My question to WGH that started this thread would be, where do you come up with a fair price for gold at a maximum of $800.? You present ZERO facts to back up your “opinion” which you are certainly entitled too, but that is all it is, but not a very well informed opinion. Based on the amount of “dollars” created out of thin air in just the last decade, having ZERO intrinsic value, gold should be at a minimum of $10,000 per oz. remember I am just as entitled to my opinion as you are to yours. The difference is, I have studied the Federal Reserve Act since I was a teenager, (over 60 years) and know, and know that I know, that it is a Ponzi scheme that is in the last gasp of its collapse, whether that turns out to be 5 months or 5 years. The system can not survive in its present form, it is mathematically impossible.

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  2. Porter Stansberry has gone on like this for years, much like his “Randy” mentor Doug Casey. I recall his other mentor, Bill Bonner of Agora Inc, fomenting similar terror through James Dale Davidson,s little treatises in the 1994 to 1996 era, with essentially the same pitch as Porter recent diatribes. One of the worst of Porter’s “doomsday disasters ahead” rhetoric was his prediction of the collapse and bankruptcy of General Electric in 2010, set to occur by 2011 or 2012. His promotion of Casey’s valhalla in Argentina, in light of recent financial chaos there ,offered his readers a similar escape into utopia. The background “noise” from Porter’s perma-chicken little promotions is getting boring, so I canceled out.
    Can you comment on James DiGeorgia’s promotion of new secret “Sun Gas” Energy made from solar power & water with new Princeton Univ. science discoveries? It is set to make abundant fuel cheaper than natural gas, be 20% more efficient; therefore replacing much natural gas used in power plants today? Di Georgia offers a ground floor opportunity, just like early days Apple and Amazon investors discovered years ago. What’s up here?

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    • Your clues seem to suggest “hydrogen”, with solar power ( used as electricity ) to electrolyze water into it’s component parts. H2 & O……..unfortunately, the process is “inefficient” from an energy perspective…..in that it requires more energy to separate the elements, than one gets when one burns them, although the burning is efficient and produces pure water as a result.

      If one regards externalities and prices them into the final result, this method is preferable to all other energy sources, and given total solar energy potential, production of hydrogen gas as a combustable fuel, where required would cancel the inefficiencies, making it the correct and sane choice.

      Or it could be more exotic, like using element 44 to do the same thing, by adding sun and water ( instant electrolysis ) but scalability and availability present problems. ( be interesting to see what this actually is……neither of these is new, and unless they have managed to alter the laws of physics, use of the word efficiency in terms of energy conversion, would not be appropriate until solar and other renewables are providing, over 100% of worldwide energy consumption.)

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          • Good work Ventureshadow.
            Too many people want to talk about Second Law of Thermodynamics without knowing what it is!

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      • If the very real and measured climate change we see happening is actually caused by Humans burning carbon based fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, and wood), as most world scientists agree is the case (though many republicans and their big business and oil and coal supporters deny that for obviously self serving reasons), well if we are changing the climate as seems to be true, we must move from gasoline and liquid fuels for transportation to something else. Electricity is fine for short hops but batteries are just not the ticket for long drives in cars let alone in trucks, or for trains or planes where liquid (or compressed) fuels are for the foreseeable future still needed. Hydrogen is the answer for such a fuel that does not contribute CO2 to the earth. Sure it takes more energy to separate it from water than you get back but you get back a bit less energy and only water back when it burns and that is the beauty of it. Hydrogen does not affect climate change when burned. Now if you have abundant cheap energy to make it like solar or nuclear power that do not contribute to climate change well then you have the magic combination of fuel for transportation in a future where CO2 emissions will be banned or taxed beyond practical use. Solar is fine of course but intermittent, so I would bet the world finally wakes up and builds nuclear plants to replace all the coal and gas plants, eventually powers, heats and cools buildings with electricity from nuclear, and generates hydrogen from nuclear power for transportation. Virtually no more CO2 and we save the earth’s climate. New nuclear plant designs are both safe and don’t create high level wastes so eventually (hopefully soon) the tree huggers will wake up to that and stop blocking nuclear power. It will take taxes on carbon fuels to make it happen fast enough to save our climate but that I hope too will happen over the next decade. Yeah I know dream on – and buy land in the far north well above sea level because the rich oil and coal barrons don’t want that to happen and after the Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court, they can buy enough politicians in DC to block any carbon taxes.

        O2.

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        • While it is possible that burning carbon based fuels (coal, oil, natural gas, and wood) does cause some global warming it is far less than the earth’s wobble and our sun getting hotter. Burning less will help but only delay the final outcome.

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        • Man have you drank the global warming kool-aid The number one global warming gas is water vapor aka clouds, so burning hydrogen will just warm the earth faster you idiot.There is no proof that co2 is warming the earth it is only .06 percent of air and weighs 1.5 times heavier imagine that it stays low to the ground by the plants that breath it. Maybe you should study science instead of listen to phony scientist on the government payout trying to steal our money.

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          • Maybe Jimfire, you should read a bit first before calling others idiots. Start here for instance http://www.skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas-intermediate.htm as it debunks your claim that hydrogen will warm the earth faster. Yes water vapor is the biggest greenhouse gas, but it constantly recycles itself as rain or snow back to the earth. The amount held as clouds or vapor is dependent on the temperature overall of the earth. The warmer the earth (from say other gases like CO2 that persist for a long time) the more water vapor that evaporates from the oceans and lakes. That actually amplifies the warming of the planet from the warming the CO2 (and methane and other more persistent green house gases) create. But if you simply add more water vapor from burning hydrogen, it cycles back as rain or snow very quickly. The amount of water vapor in the air stays fairly constant so long as the overall temperature of the earth remains constant. The earth has to warm to hold more water vapor in the air so burning hydrogen will only increase rainfall provided the earth is not warmed by other means. And if it did warm by other means then oceans will quickly evaporate more vapor into the air whether or not you burn hydrogen.

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        • To John Harris: You said “Hydrogen is the answer for such a fuel that does not contribute CO2 to the earth. Sure it takes more energy to separate it from water than you get back”.
          My reply to your statement is just where the hell is all this energy to make hydrogen going to come from? It will come from fossil fuels. I don’t know anyone stupid enough to spend more fossil fuel energy to produce less of their so called “clean” energy! Look at it this way…a gasoline engine produces first generation energy. An engine running on Hydrogen will first burn carbon, then it will be transferred into electric energy, then it will used to produce hydrogen, then the hydrogen will be used to run an engine in a car. That’s four generations of power which is highly inefficient. You progressives have no logic. Also, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, it is plant food. Plants grow quicker and healthier when you increase carbon dioxide. Without it they die.

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          • To Cornel:
            I suppose I am longwinded and write more than you can manage to read in one setting. I apologize. But had you read all of that post (or thought about all the various sources of energy) you would realize that electicity can be made in lots of ways other than burning carbon fuels. Nuclear is the elephant in the room for robust dependable electric power with no CO2 emissions but there are a slew of other sources of electricity that produce less or intermittent electricity without burning carbon fuels from hydroelectric, to solar, wind, geo-thermal, and even tides. Most of those I object to on other reasons (dams screw up rivers, wind turbines ruin the lives of anyone living near one, wind and solar are intermittent, etc) but nuclear power from new safe style plants is the answer (in my view), and could easily produce electricity so abundantly as to make hydrogen production easy and relatively cheap without carbon fuel. As to your claim that CO2 is not a pollutant – that is semantics. Put enough of it in the room you are in, enough to displace the oxygen, and you die so I would call that a pollutant in that case. Sure plants need it but they seem to have had enough to keep growing just fine centuries ago before we added lots more to the atmosphere from carbon fuels. More that what was in the air 100 years ago can be regarded as a pollutant if it changes the climate and floods coastal cities or kills millions through more severe storms. Your evident anger toward progressives itself seems to have no logic.

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          • If the powers that be would dump (not literally -) the uranium and switch to thorium based reactors, we could temporarily solve the energy problem… at least until all the kinks could be worked out on a mass scale hydrogen infrastructure. Thorium cannot be used to destroy the planet so I guess the neocons frown on it’s use.
            Energy is everywhere and energy cannot be destroyed, it can only be transformed into different forms. There are enough sources of consistent (free) energy on this planet, other than fossil fuels, to provide us all with the electricity we demand. Ocean tides, wind currents, heat from beneath the planet, and of course the sun provides massive amounts – “all” we have to do is change it into usable energy.

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          • Couldn’t we covert a Nuclear Power Plant to Make Hydrogen. Then Store or Pipeline that as a replacement of Gas. I realize there still is a carbon footprint in the mininng and construction of a facility. Also i have seen articles on using existing nuclear waste as fuel for more modern reactors.

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          • To Brian,
            To make hydrogen you need electricity which can break apart the two hydrogen atoms from the oxygen in water (H2O). You would still need that nuclear plant (or a new version based on say thorium instead of uranium) to create the clean electricity to separate the hydrogen from the oxygen. And yes breeder reactors (used a lot in France) can be fueled by the waste from the conventional nuclear plants – but alas breeders don’t make plutonium that can make bombs so here in America we had no use for breeders and as a result we can’t seem to figure out what to do with our high level nuclear waste – go figure,

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          • Theres a zillion ways to generate power….all have some form of pollution. But the trick is to generate it centrally so that the pollution can be captured and contained with rather than being spewed out of a grillion exhaust pipes all round the country. I really like the idea of splitting water into hydrogen which when burned turns back into water. It doesnt matter that its ‘inefficient’. Hydro power goes 24/7 and is mostly wasted at night. Ditto wind/wave power. Loads of nuclear is wasted off peak. Look at all this shale gas! Converting any waste energy to hydrogen, so that it can be stored makes sense.

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          • To Alan,
            Nice last name by the way…. I suppose you can say that nuclear or hydroelectric make some form of pollution but so far as I can see that would only be during the construction of the dam or the nuclear plant. Once running hydro has virtually no pollutant emissions. Nuclear needs thorium (or uranium) that gets dug out of the ground with machines that pollute and transported by truck or train that presently pollute. But Thorium is a waste by-product of almost all mining operations so I discount the digging leaving just the loading and transport – and those machines can run on hydrogen if we make it. So I see nuclear as virtually pollution free save for the one time building of the facility, and compared to the huge output of power that is tiny. Wind by the way gets criticized (properly) due to large construction cost relative to tiny output. And I object to wind on many other grounds – intermittent, needs a federal law to require a 7 to 10 mile setback from inhabited structures (as Europe and CA require), requires new power lines strewn all over the place to pick up that intermittent power at high cost, and those transmission towers like the wind turbines are both a blight on the landscape). I like nuclear. Dams block rivers that should not be. But I certainly agree that anywhere we have power that is simply unused we could make hydrogen.

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          • Hi Bro ‘arris. Maybe I was a little narrow in my definition of pollution. Maybe I should have said risk of…..
            ….’ So I see nuclear as virtually pollution free…… ‘
            Go tell that to the Japanese!!

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          • Dear Bros Allen
            The reactors in Japan are nothing like the nearly infinitely safer designs like thorium that oddly enough has been available since 1970. The problem in Japan was due to terrible placement and design. Thorium inherently can’t melt down in that way even if you turn off all the power, walk away, and an earthquake hits. It does not need the containment vessel or constant cooling. Heck you can barely keep them reacting like trying to burn wet wood on a camping trip. Unless you keep stoking it with more fuel and moving the inside fuel to the outside constantly the dam thing goes out. So radioactive “pollution” due to accident is just not an issue with these types of reactors. Even conventional uranium reactors, while slightly risky – yes 3-mile island, Chernobyl, and now Japan – are still far less risky and cause far fewer deaths than coal mining (to say nothing of respiratory disease from burning coal, mercury poisoning (read autism), and the environmental dangers of coal ash stored after it is burned. Even existing nuclear plants are far safer than coal. And by pollution we normally are not including accidents like the one in Japan nor the coal mine fire in Turkey. We are usually referring to the normal emissions when the plant is working normally. Anyway new style nuclear reactors do not carry even the minimal risk of existing uranium reactors and better yet do not have high level waste to dispose of. Neither type has CO2 emissions that contribute to global warming and that is key in this thread.

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    • Hi – I did some research on this Sun Gas pitch and I believe the company he is pitching is
      SolarThermoChemical LLC of Santa Maria, Calif.
      SolarThermoChemcial has a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement for the project and plans to manufacture and sell the system after the project ends.
      The full story is in this link:
      https://www.pnnl.gov/news/release.aspx?id=981
      Travis, I would really appreciate your views on this technology and its potential future.

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      • Which pitch do you mean by “the pitch”?
        Did you intend your two links to be the same ?

        Either way, thanks for the intriguing recommendation. ‘Twas news to me, and I found it both informative and provocative–as you are so often.

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    • @ Ronald Baker; Re the Sun-Gas promo: FWIW

      According to a friend of a friend the 4 companies they’re touting are CHK, COG, NRG and SPWR.

      It sounds like there are a lot of unknowns and there are several companies that are working on competing technology that are private so it’s a bit of a crap shoot.

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      • Natasha – I am glad you are interested in the NRG and SPWR pitch by DiGeorgia. I also noticed you made reference to the PNNL, or Pacific Northwest National Lab. The four stocks mentioned are correct, (Gumshoe will be proud!). Having lived near the National Lab, I am aware that there are a number of projects active at any given time. The “Sun-Gas” concept is one that the folks at PNNL are not talking a lot about, probably because it is not ready for “prime time.” I am not sure of the connection between the National Lab and SPWR and NRG. I have talked with associates who have traveled in California near a new energy installation that may very well be the NRG project. We all need a lot more information on the specific project(s), together with the science and source of funding for developing Sun-Gas. I am not certain what CHK or COG have to do with the project, as the NRG and SPWR initiatives are in the West. it will be interesting to see whether the National Labs or any of the other entities will be willing to provide us with answers to any questions we might have.

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  3. ” I moved my family 600 miles in search of higher taxes and worse schools, and if I never move again I’ll be awfully pleased. ”

    That line brought a guffaw and made me glad I read Gumshoe rather than pay to read newsletters that try to scare people into subscribing or into expatriating.

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  4. I certainly have no information regarding a US dollar crash. However, such could be temporarily beneficial to the powers that be in the USA government.
    In the meantime, there seems to be likelihood that several USA states will secede. If so, there will probably be some big crisis and I, for one, am not going to ignore the possibility. Timing? Probably well before any federal 2016 election.

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    • The United States is divided beyond repair. I just hope we can divide into two separate Countries and survive….will probably come together with a plan since the survival of both ‘new’ America’s will depend on it. It’s going to happen, stay tuned for ‘America, part 2….or would it be part 3, 4, 5 or what?

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  5. I also like royalty streamers and have held SLW for years and done well. I do read several newsletters and find about equal mix on both sides of this issue. History also supports to some degree the failure of heavy debt, wasteful spending, excessive social programs and corruption in government, We have it all. I find it interesting that the Federal Reserve can go this long with no audit, no oversight and not effort by congress to correct this. The same for no annual audit of Ft. Knox( is any gold actually there?). No real good explanation of why Germany has to wait for their gold so long, and they don’t seem to be throwing a fit, I would be, and our government would be if the situation was reversed. The US seems to not be the only reserve, but the largest for sure. An article just last week maybe by Davidson(can’t recall) explained that the EURO and YEN I think were 2nd and 3rd. These nations trade frequently among themselves and settle in their own currency, not like oil and the petro dollar. China, Russia, and others are doing more of the same. China at this point is far down on the list, but is moving up. Now Japan, Euro and others are also printing money and others may follow, this may allow the dollar to remain popular for some time as it may viewed in a crisis as less bad that the others. There even books out there that suggest Presidents have been assinated for attempting to shut down the Federal Reserve, so you can find most any reading material to base any explanation on, like, who wrote this and why? Now if you take gold and silver in your on safe keeping you best have equal amounts of lead for your protection, if it goes like some suggest, someone may kill you to get it. I have thought about this a great deal and find little answer in the newsletters that really make comiong with an answer any easier. I am not sure having gold in a foreighn bank or deposit of some type will guarantee you will have access to it, or that it will even be there, look at Germany.
    Now, I am old, and if the spelling, grammar and rambling is incorrect, sorry. That is my two cents worth, before O that would have been a dollars worth.

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    • Concur. If things get so bad that you’ll need gold and silver bullion and weapons, you’re not going to want to be alive. Someone, maybe the gobment, will always out weaponize you. You’ll constantly be checking your six. Think seeking refuge in some third world country or European basket case locale is the answer – think again! Best we try to fix our problems.

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      • I agree with your assessment of life after the Dollar collapse. I think it’s in many American’s
        mythology to want to return to “somekind” of pre-governmental “paradise”. However, when you look at the rest of the world when Government collapses, it creates a living hell rather than the “free market” paradise.

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    • Kennedy was outspoken about ending the Fed Reserve and was killed very quick. It’s amazing how there has never been one reporter or anyone from the senate or congress ask any of the Fed Chairmen through the decades who they work for. Many of us know the Federal Reserve is privately owned and we know who the original owners were back in 1913. We all live in an illusion. The Fed Reserve vampires own our fake two party system. Their wealth is unimaginable as America is a constant state of bankruptcy and no doubt receivership to them.

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      • Let us remember why the FED was created in the first place. America has
        suffered from the regular failure of Capitalism. Here is a list of all of the Panics (recessions) And Depressions America suffered from since its beginning:
        The Great Recession of 2007
        The Recession of 1980
        The Recession of 1973
        The Recession of 1958 – 1961
        The Recession of 1945
        The Great Depression of 1929 – 1942 including the Recession of 1937
        The Recession of 1918 – 1921
        The Recession of 1913
        The Panic of 1910
        The Panic of 1907
        The Panic of 1896
        The Panic of 1893
        The Long Depression of 1873 – 1885: Includes the Panic of 1873 and Recession of 1882
        The Panic of 1857
        The Panic of 1837 followed by the Depression of 1839
        The Recession of 1825 – 1826
        The Recessions of 1822 – 1823
        The Depression of 1815 – 1821
        The Depression of 1807
        The Recession of 1802
        The Panic of 1797
        The main reason for the FEDs creation was to prevent Capitalism from failing every few years.

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        • Hi KG,
          I won’t even try to dazzle you with my historical prowess, but according to your list (especially in the 20th Century, many of the panics and depressions occurred slightly before, during or just after a great military conflict. I would imagine World Wars I and II spanning 1918 – 1945 had a bearing on those incidents. After all war costs us plenty. From 1958 – 1973, there was the Viet Nam Police Action. In the interim, some of the banking scandals and increased government spending and so many other financial schemes and deceptions from the 1970′s right through to the present including the War on Terrorism have had their toll on our economy.
          Perhaps it’s just me but the FED appears to be one of the great mysteries to the American public. I have heard stories that it consists of several nation’s representatives that decide how America spends and values her currency and whether that’s true or not, isn’t it time we justify how our money is valued or spent? In less than three hundred years haven’t we built this nation up from a mostly agrarian society to the most powerful nation ever? One that provides well for her citizens and for those who desire to become citizens of this great land? Haven’t we earned the right to exclude ourselves from the scrutiny of other nations and have their respect for our sovereignty, as we respect theirs? There has got to be an answer to our present dilemma that doesn’t include giving up our American way of life and doesn’t spell disaster for other nations. We’ve prided ourselves on how far we’ve come, but there is still much more growth ahead of us as a great nation co-existing with many other great nations on a beautiful planet. Let’s not destroy any part of it. Let’s learn how to grow together and build a safe world for ourselves and our future generations.

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          • Indeed, I would like to agree with your sentiments.
            However, Capitalism and war go together. As long as there are
            competing interests fighting over limited natural resources their
            will be war. And the Capitalist system seems to be geared towards a
            war like economy no matter what political persuasion is there.

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      • Craig: You have well articulated some serious truths that the average American citizen has not yet come to terms with. It is totally absurd that a private corporation has obtained a monopoly that enslaves us all. Even worse is the fact that by creating money out of thin air and being allowed to charging interest on it the Federal Reserve Act has in effect legalized what would otherwise be considered counterfeiting. Look at an original dollar bill, instead of being labelled, “legal tender for all debts public or private” when it was created it clearly said it was exchangeable for gold or silver coin, in other words it had a value that it represented, while today it is just a scrap of paper with no defined value for which it can exchanged.

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    • And a pretty good 2c worth at that (06) Edward, but how many people know that the definition of a dollar was set in the Coinage Act of 1792 as 417 grams of standard silver?
      Today it is a travesty of language to label a pretty piece of paper with numbers printed on it as a dollar, let alone MONEY! Unless you understand the difference between money and currency, an opinion on economics is not based in fact.

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  6. I followed Porter for some time but became disillusioned with his touting Argentina as a safe haven. Yeah , great record of government stability. Travis I think you are clear eyed on this. I did alright buying physical gold @ 285 & selling @ $900+,too bad it was just one Krugerrand. I personally think silver has more opportunity for uptick if it ever goes back to historic gold/silver money ratio, plus being of great need in industry. Commodities of any kind quickly bite if you guess wrong. Futures markets were first used for forward contracts so a farmer might at least have a shot at repaying loan to plant crop. My father was a successful farmer/rancher who told me “expect in any three year period,1 losing year 1 breakeven year & hope 3rd year is good enough to go thru cycle again.” Also said best road to survival in business was controlling costs. I have not been able to disprove either statement. As to worlds currency I think it impossible to derive sanity from what is clearly insane. Use debt as basis of money worth? I believe only reason dollar not falling is the worse state of other money…..All vapor….1,s & 0,s flying around in a circle. In reality money is just a way of keeping track of other wealth; often very tenuous relationship . As to when ???? predict something long enough eventually you may be right. In our time “pigs do fly” if someone will pay their airfare.

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    • The answer to your statement could possibly be; “the mills of the gods grind slowly, but very fine” In other words, man can get away with defying natural laws of the universe for a very long time, but eventually he ends up paying the piper. Mathematics is just as certain as the law of gravity, ultimately it can not be defied. That however is what our misguided leaders attempted to do when they established the Federal Reserve Act. in 1913 that allows private bankers to be the creators of our currency which we are forced to borrow into existence as DEBT, providing them with the ultimate monopoly. Their mantra is, “the magic of compounding” selling the masses on the idea they can get rich through compound interest. Bursting that bubble is very simple by basic mathematics and applying some critical thinking. Yes it works for the elite, but if everyone was a net recipient of interest, who would be left to pay it? They got you, the simple fact is interest is never created under our fractional reserve banking system, ONLY THE PRINCIPAL, which means the only way that interest can be paid in perpetuity is if new loans keep being contracted at a sufficient level of increase to cover any principal paid back, (to maintain liquidty, but also the accumulated interest. Bottom line, the only thing that can happen under our debt based currency creation system is that the un-payable interest accumulates as debt. Ironic is it not, the elites can indeed “COMPOUND” their ill-gotten wealth, while the masses debt keeps on compounding, just a more humane form of slavery.

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  7. The biggest problem of all Western economies is a shrinking workforce. This means we dont have enough cash to pay out all retirement benefits that were accumulated. This will drive down the value of all currencies vs hard assets (we call it inflation). until one finds a way to increase the workforce size (which is a near improbability) the world will muddle along–its not the US that’s at risk first, its countries like Japan that borrow more every year than they could hope to collect in taxes just to pay the interest on their debt. Yes its bad in the US, but on a relative basis, and currencies are a relative thing, the US is in better shape than most of the other world economies. Just to relativize for the reader, Japan should have been in chapter 11 years ago,,,it may prolong its agony for many more…The US has at least as many options in its arsenal and is about 20 years behind Japan..so I think the USA is here to stay. Re Gold, current real costs of production, (all in) are over 1000 USD/oz…so long term there is a floor…will it become a store of safety…probably not. In a world of barter–one where currencies have broken down–gold probably is less valuable than other tradeables..think sheep or camels—you get my point….Re investment in foreign markets, do it through US companies with massive sales abroad…its safer and the companies are required to show transparancy of reporting with studies show tends to positively be reflected in long term results…sorry for being so long winded

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    • Good stuff for 2:14 in the morning. Enjoy reading the comments as much as the commentary. Travis attracts knowledgeable readers.
      At the end of the day demographics will drive the economy. Just read a study that claims by 2025, 30% of all blue collar jobs will be done by robots. It will be interesting to see how that, along with a shrinking work force and insufficient job training resulting in jobs going unfilled combined with a chronic high unemployment rate.
      This should continue to increase gap between the haves and have nots, making for an interesting challenge to our economy

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    • Work force prob is a non issue solution is robotics – they are finally coming of age

      prob will be distribution of wealth as huge numbers of jobs disappear

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    • The interesting thing Philippe is that the U.S. economic policies are fast tracked on the same path Japan has been on the past 20 years or so. You are certainly right that Japan should have been in Chap 11 years ago, but the main reasons the U.S. is not already there is two fold, the shear size of its economy and the their privileged position of being the worlds reserve currency, which they have horribly abused. What extended the privileged position was the “PETRO DOLLAR” agreement with Saudi Arabia that required oil to be purchased in “dollars” a factor that is rapidly changing as China Russian others (now 22 nations) that have agreed to trade using their own national currencies, completely bypassing the dollar. The less the demand, the lower the price, and as the dollar falls the price of gold will increase.

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  8. There is another factor that has been left out here. That is, Christine Lagarde that controls the IMF has stated at the beginning of Dec 2013 that she would like to have a “global currency reset” within 90 days. That would bring her timing to the end of Feb 2014. Last year in Aug or Oct (I can’t remember) 204 nations came together, minus the US, and talked about a rebalance of everyone’s currency to be within 3% – 5% of each other. That would crush the USD overnight and cause the USD to fall 30% – 50%. Then inflation would come a little later leading to hyperinflation. It is not looking good for paper currency.
    Then when China states how much gold and silver they have, they will probably state they will have a gold/silver backed Yuan. That would be another crushing blow to the USD being backed by faith in their politicians? I hate the saying, but “cash is trash.”
    Voting power in the IMF is based on a quota system. Each member has a number of “basic votes” (each member’s number of basic votes equals 5.502% of the total votes), plus one additional vote for each Special Drawing Right (SDR) of 100,000 of a member country’s quota. The Special Drawing Right is the unit of account of the IMF and represents a claim to currency. It is based on a basket of key international currencies. The basic votes generate a slight bias in favor of small countries, but the additional votes determined by SDR outweigh this bias.
    Put a match to paper, it turns to aches. Put a match to gold it melts back into gold.

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    • Larry I think problem with IMF re-balance is committee setting ‘worth’ seeks best deal for self not you. IMHO Value of a thing is what “good ” you get from it. Price is set by want/desire, Cost is what ” Bad” you suffer in acquiring thing.
      I think Phillipe is correct about foreign assets but I prefer company based in country of investment. One more barrier to confiscation by beloved leader. Canada comes to mind altho I regret selling TTM for a triple. Should have bought more.

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    • There’s a possibility that we may see a new currency regime at some point, they have certainly come in the past (a la Bretton Woods), but I cannot imagine the genie going back in the bottle and any major currency going back to a gold backing — particularly a country that likes to control everything, like China. A gold backing means you’ve lost any control over your currency and no longer have the ability to manipulate it for domestic or global purposes (ie, quelling unrest, starting or stopping inflation, boosting exports). I don’t think any large government will give up their control over their own currency — a currency that you can’t devalue leads to crisis when unexpected things happen, as in Greece (which would likely have worked itself through their crisis problems more smoothly if they could just devalue their currency — but, since they had switched to the euro, they no longer controlled their currency).

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    • Larry (10): Your closing comment reminds me of top gold critic/disbeliever Warren Buffett who is in the “barbarous relic” camp of gold being useless, paying no dividend or interest etc. What is usually cited is that you “can’t eat gold”, in other words, that in a crisis it won’t keep you alive, which is true, however the same holds true for paper currency. I suppose you could eat it but given the chemicals in ink it would be more likely to make you sick than provide and life sustaining nourishment. Others point out that farmland may well be the best as a “wealth preserver” but again it is not very divisible or transportable, SEEDS might be better from that perspective. The point is that nothing in 5000 years of human history has proven to be a better combination wealth preserver / trading medium with world wide acceptance than gold and silver. Paper currency on the other hand is only backed by the hot air of politicians and all fiat currencies eventually collapse due to human greed and manipulation by the elite, they do not protect the common man.

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    • When you say it is “not looking good for paper currency” you are bang on, if not understating a solid case. When your currency is brought into existence as debt, but you need a rising level of currency to sustain a growing economy, then to replace fiat currency being paid back, and also cover the interest taken out of the system, (never created in the first place) the only thing that is compounding is DEBT.

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  9. Inspite of the anticipated threat to the USdollar, it still remains a safe investment for us living in Pakistan. It has appreciated a lot against our own currency i. e, the Ruppee. I do think it is a good idea to invest in stocks of emerging markets and properties outside the USA.

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  10. Your views are I believe honest and to the point, the Germany wanting there 35 t and if I heard correctly we said (US) we would give them 5 and the rest in 7 years. The Treasury Dept./ Gold Vault is said to be owned by the Chinese now , but as far as the product inside they did not say. I wonder if the Central Banks have a nice lease agreement with China, New York is the next China Town according to Chase selling there buildings to China the building will be turned condo’s by the affluent from Hung Kong with not many units left to sell on the blue prints (STREET TALK) what would Rockefeller think his landmark up for sale around the world for 1.5 Bil $ and was sold to China for 1/2 of that 750,000 Bil$, sounds like a movie, ( TAKE A BOW ) the hidden door theory which already has a back up of several months because of the individuals hiding mirror. S@A Porter just keeps throwing the nuts to the animals in the zoo as long as the people buy the cups of nuts from them, there has to be a code in New York for that, I can not see the security searching every ones pockets and purses for nuts, the animals would have already made the de shelling machine.
    I have no idea if any of that is true but I am sure the Media has a gag order on it. I like you have some of Nolan’s stash and was lucky enough to have bought and sold at the right times and am on his dime, how long I don’t know but the management has survived with the same phone numbers to call for tee times. Also was able to put some Yuan on the side just to be patriotic, they will throw the key away on anything. Also have done well on selling puts on ANV this last year which ended up owning a fair amount and have recently sold for a good lick and kept some on the house like playing craps being on the house’s side you just have to stay there for a while, KWM noise now guess keep Tug along. There is a lot going on in Nevada with some institutions doing the analyst code talk. But I will be back in that just don’t know when.
    The Gumshoe is fair and the irregulars are good, I will be around listening and learning, have not had time but with the Ben B. change etc. do you see Bank warrants out there to your liking Travis and what is you feeling on yours know?
    Thanks for the article and your members and the Thinkolater .
    Take care all.

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  11. Gentlemen,
    I read with interest and considerable enlightenment the many comments above, and resolved to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, rather than open my mouth and absolutely remove all doubt..

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  12. Ah gold! I have a history of gold. My great-uncle Jack, a broker in Germany, in 1936 converted his wealth into gold bars and paid someone to ship it across the Rhine to France. Then he and his family moved to New York and took possession. Uncle Jack then bought a seat on the NY Stock Exchange but not being a citizen yet he had to rent it out.
    He later became the family’s link to share-ownership and my first broker, when I was 9,
    before you had to have a taxpayer ID and be grown up to own stock. (I bought AT&T and
    IBM, in case you are wondering, not gold.) His last name like mine was Oppenheim and his brokerage firm was Abraham & Co. My great-uncle was Jewish; so am I.
    When I got married a neighbor in California gave me a $5 gold piece (with an Indian head
    on one side) that her family had hidden from the confiscation of private gold holdings under Franklin D. Roosevelt. She told me to wear it in my shoe while walking down the aisle, and I did. It would, she said, bring prosperity. (She had never married herself.)
    Then I lived 15 years in France starting under De Gaulle and (with a break) ending up under Mitterrand.
    The French love the yellow metal. Under Le Grand Charles they tried to bring down the US dollar by breaking the link at $35/ounce to gold, but in the end, it was the French franc which got devalued. Under Mitterrand everyone scared of the left bought gold, Swiss francs and (aha!) dollars to save themselves from Socialist-Communist expropriation.
    A few lessons from the above:
    1) if you are facing expropriation or death because of your ethnicity, gold is a good way to extract yourself from Vietnam or Nazi Germany or leftie France. I tend to feel that this is not a lesson for present-day Americans;
    2) attacks on the dollar for geo-political reasons by foreign countries do not to work. Their own currencies depend on the dollar, not just the French franc, but China’s huge hoard of US T-bills. So they cannot attack the US$ without it having negative consequences for them;
    3) Without panic, without hysteria, a stake in gold via an ETF or a physical holding maker sense for most portfolios as a diversification away from stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. My website gives a way to buy physical gold cheaply and, of course, legally, without being snookered into the gold-coin racket or crudy assets. Beware Frank de Georgia with mispriced coin-dealing;
    4) Conspiracy theories play to the paranoid element among newsletter subscribers and are nonsensical. The US Government is not hollowing out Fort Knox on the sly; the Fed is taking its time paying out gold to Germany (part of which may reflect my late great-uncle’s stake, for all I know) because of technical factors; the government, having legalized Americans’ right to own gold under Nixon is not going to return to the confiscatory policies of FDR’s first administration because the situation is different.
    5) Gold coins are illiquid and heavily marked up and not an investment vehicle for sensible people. There is no conspiracy about the World Gold Council against gold which it exists to promote on behalf of gold mining companies! The gold in the GLD ETF exists and is tapped when people redeem their shares and replenished when they buy them again. The World Gold Council also sponsors the physical gold vehicle I recommend on my website where I run a paid ad (because I agree as well as because I am paid.) To imagine that gold mining companies are collectively hiding a hole in the ETF accounts requires a level of paranoia which exceeds even the logic of the Baltimoreans: Bonner, Davidson, Stansberry, Casey et al. They are peddling newsletters and doing it well while also pitching to a right-of-center senior readership.
    6) There are even more extreme millenairian end-of-days voices out there who argue that we face the imminent end of civilization as we know it. The gummint and black helicopters from the UN are coming to take away their guns. They will ruin anyone who listens to their financial advice on gold– or anything else.

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  13. So If I get this correctly for a “stream” I am paid for the gold that is mined. The miner is paid to mine the gold in dollars. The dollar becomes worthless. Why does the miner keep mining to be paid in dollars? Perhaps he will now demand to be paid in gold. Or am I confused?

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    • Technically, the stream owners are given the gold, though royalty owners are typically given cash — though in practice, I don’t think any of them hold the gold they earn, they sell it along with the producer’s gold. The dollar is not going to become worthless instantly, or stop being a medium of exchange, but if gold becomes more valuable than each ounce would bring in more dollars, etc. etc. In the end, you still have to have something that you can use to meet payroll … or pay your rent and buy your groceries and pay the bills — that’s going to be a currency, not a precious metal.

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      • There is nothing wrong with paper currency per se Travis, it is certainly more convenient than any precious metal, the problem comes with human greed in respect to how much is issued and how it is valued. While I am not advocating for the return of our previous gold standard,
        (Breton Woods Agreement) it would be pretty hard to argue that our 43 year experiment with fiat currency (backed by nothing, since Nixon repudiated the gold standard in 1971), is anything but a colossal failure! Look at the results, DEBT is increasing exponentially, particularly since Obama took office. Even with a virtually zero interest rate policy, debt is still climbing and realistically can never be repaid in any kind of sound money. A “RESET” as was advocated by Christine Lagarde recently is admittedly an absolute necessity.
        How to achieve that is a gordian knot with no easy answers. My question to everyone is simply this. By what line of reasoning, fundamental truth, logic, laws of the universe or any other term you choose to use, requires that our currency be borrowed into existence as debt on which a privileged few, (calling themselves bankers) have a monopoly on creating out of thin air and demanding interest on what they create for the price of paper and ink?

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  14. Travis;
    I know you own warrants on SAND. I believe you rolled out of the April 2014 warrants into the Sept 2017 warrants sometime in the fall. I have been studying warrants since last summer. I have found liquidity to be a real problem. I am now looking at some new ETFs as an alternative to warrants. JNUG is a 3x fund on Jr gold miners. You can even buy options on it. How about buying an out of the money call and an out of the money put with sell orders at at 10 times purchase price. Much safer than buying lottery tickets. Any thoughts?

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  15. The status quo is working out quite well for the wealthy of the world these last 4 years. Why would they let any event or policy change that? They won’t. Only when the rich are threatened, and they’re not, will we see a global policy shift.

    As to the dollar’s future: the incestuous relationship between FedFunds rate, crude oil, gold prices, the dollar, foreign banks, and lately, QE (and the FED banks incapacity to lend), leads one to infer that no one can predict what will happen to the dollar in the coming year. They’re all buggering each other behind the bar, but it’s us, the commoner, that get’s screwed in the end.

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    • No need to remain anonymous, you presented an honest and well reasoned thesis and as per my previous post, you hit the nail on the head when you stated: “The status quo is working out quite well for the wealthy of the world these last 4 years. Why would they let any event or policy change that? They won’t.’” The only thing I would change in that statement is your time frame, it should be a HUNRED years plus since the Federal Reserve Act was sneaked through Congress, even the then President regretted it after the fact. Indeed, ” it is the commoner that gets screwed in the end” and that is why human greed will not allow an honest policy and currency that favours the common man to be brought into existence, the elites will not voluntarily give up their power to remain leaches on society at large.

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  16. Travis: you do such a great job in shedding light on the questionable practices of these newsletter investment peddlers like Stansbury. I had his newsletter for a couple of years, and really got tired of his schtick, and that of others like him. Thank you.
    Kirk

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  17. Let me say I have a history with the Bonner crowd. I was into Casey back in the late 80′s when I sold Diamond Fields prematurely—what a dope!! If anyone recalls Casey made his fame and money in Nikkei puts. He led me astray with the loser book ” Investing for the Rest of the 90′s”.
    After that I lock up with several of the Oxford Club gurus including Louie B. and Alex Green. Unfortunately I didn’t have the $$$ to buy their recommendations.
    That wasn’t until I bought into the $5000 program with Karim R. and Greenie. Their 35% trailing stops cost me $35K. I did get my $5K back but only after I threatened to sue them for the $35K.
    Porter S. cost be a boatload of unrealized gains withdrawing my money from the market.
    However his Gold recommendation netted me about $40K.
    I wish I found Travis sooner—what a bargain.

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  18. Unluckily I realize this may be a bunch of bull like most of what we read online but Karen Hudes stated on Shift Frequency the following.

    This is a snippet only of course HER WORDS NOT MINE. Hope she is right and we beat them down and come out like US Citizens.
    I quote part of the article
    >>>>Former World Bank Senior Counsel and whistleblower Karen Hudes has an amazing revelation about secret U.S. gold. Hudes says, “We’ve been offered, the United States, 170,500 metric tons of gold on deposit in the bank of Hawaii to underpin our currency which is about to crash. The Federal Reserve Notes are unconstitutional, and we don’t have to pay interest on our debt, and we don’t have to have debt for that matter.” What does Hudes say to her skeptics that doubt her story of 170,500 tons of gold in Hawaii? Hudes says, “I say you are totally kept in the dark and that the mainstream media is controlled by this network of control that is totally documented by the Federal Institute of Technology. You really ought to chide yourself that you are deliberately kept in the dark. So, you shouldn’t be surprised that the world’s wealth is hidden from you when so much else is hidden from you.”<<<<<<<

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  19. If you do believe any of this may happen, it would be pretty silly to invest in any asset that is dollar denominated. If you are a little worried, just simply buy an insurance policy, which is what I consider Gold stocks, such as Silver Lake resource or Kings-gate in Australia and buy them in Aussie dollars and you’ll be just fine.

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  20. Would the dollar devaluation have the same effect as a default? I’m thinking a default would put every bank account personal and corporate , trusts, real estate asset, mortgage, insurance company and every pension plan into a re-valuation as zero assets. Would the same be true of a serious devaluation?

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    • Frank (25) Ultimately a devaluation of the dollar is inevitable because “WEALTH” can not be printed as it consists of the earth’s resources (freely given by a benevolent Creator) and owned by all of humanity) and our share is determined by our contribution of human labour!
      Man has not yet learned to be truly thankful for what he has been given or disposed to enact laws that ensure a fair distribution of wealth according to each persons contribution. The society that man has created in contrast is one of greed focussed on acquiring assets they did not work for. Yes ultimately defaults will cause our unsound economy to collapse, and the dollar may well be the kingpin, that levels the playing field.

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  21. China has most to loose by a devaluation of the U.S. dollar and have most to gain by the dollar strengthening. China is not allowing its currency to float precisely so that it does not appreciate to where a free market will take it, They have long ago realised it simply was not in its overall interest to allow its currency to rise and to allow the dollar to devalue. Making their exports far more expensive and USA manufacturing far more attractive does not help them bring their economy out of the dark ages up to Western Standards of living. Their vast economy has a very long way to go before such a strategy will make any sense, a process that will take several decades at the very least.
    Furthermore ignoring that the USA, in a few years, has turned from being a vast net importer of energy to an ever growing exporter of energy is of course very daft as well as very short sighted. The USA is now blessed with bountiful cheap supplies of energy and continues to lead the world technologically.
    Whilst the saying when the USA catches a cold the rest of the world catches pneumonia may not be as true as it used to be, the recent recession has made it very clear just how much the world needs the USA to be well, consuming and creating a stream of world beating products. This will remain the case for the foreseeable future especially as the developing countries vast populations are still very far from equalling western population’s standards of living.
    China, India are basically very poor countries with vast populations most of whom need to be dragged into the 21st Century, that is not a process that can be achieved overnight. The mere fact that this process is making more and more Chinese and Indian consumers rich is of course a bonanza for the USA and European goods which thankfully the nouveau riche Chinese and Indians have a penchant for. The mere fact that these developing countries are producing our western products far cheaper than we can do so, also make Western consumers better off by leaving more money in their pockets.
    The USA and its companies are currently in the midst of a bull run that will run for very many more years exponentially as the Chinese and Indians get richer and richer and allow their ever greater demand for western goods to grow. We have the mother of all booms before us with the USA very well placed to take full advantage and more than its fair share of the huge increase in demand from the developing countries.
    The dollar is more likely to appreciate substantially than to devalue over the next 10 years. I certainly will not bet against it.
    Indeed throughout most of its history the Dollar has vastly appreciated in value. It is therefor not to surprising that it should have in more recent history given up some of that vast appreciation.
    The USA is one of the safest places to invest in, with very great prospects. The Middle East is no longer important to the USA but critical to the developing countries. Who still need to deal with the horrendous oil cartel. Gold will eventually slide down to values that will shock most in such a scenario. Perhaps $600 and below. This is no time to hold Gold. Indeed I wonder whether Gold should ever be considered an investment rather than a desperate hedge against Armageddon. Even that makes little sense because, in such circumstances, will not the gold disappear from our global vaults before the owners can ever get it out? Will not Law and order descend to merely survival of the fittest? Will not any one carrying gold bars or coins around to pay for things merely be a target for desperate theft ?
    I will add that the Debts of the USA will pale into insignificance as did the vast debts accumulated after WWII with the sustained boom that followed. This time, this will be achieved thanks to China and India as well as other developing countries becoming wealthier and buying, in ever greater numbers, the desireable premium goods the USA creates,
    I am not American, I am British, so my vision cannot be said to be clouded by patriotism.

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    • Leslie I agree with some & disagree with other of what you say. $ will not lose all “value” it is backed by “Full faith & credit of U.S. govt. ; Translated that means backed by govt. ability to extract money through taxes from U.S. resident. As you know we can use anything we choose for money, in early USA used deer skins,term still lingers in word ‘buck’,, penny was, ‘pennyweight’ of barleycorn. Oak tree nut could be used as ‘a’ corn etc. Problem is most such rot or rust; gold very durable,,also ‘shiny’ & people like shiny thing. Price of $ varies in how much gold you can buy for $ & thus is more stable measure of wealth.
      Historically in time all fiat/zero backed money fails but seems there is always demand for gold although if you are starving corn is much more valuable. Despite widespread Keynesian religion i think it is impossible to borrow or spend your way out of debt, thus provision of bankruptcy in English common-law. Enjoy the ride, velocity is growing.

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      • Dare I say that spending our way out of debt was precisely what we did after WWII
        so succesfully thanks to the USA inspired Marshall Plan. Look at Germany France and
        the UK then and thereafter, as well as the boom that benefited all, especially the USA, as a result.
        Thank God the USA had the foresight in the current recession to adopt a diluted Keynsian solution that avoided a depression that would have been worse than all previous depressions and put us all back on a path to healthy growth that in itself enables us to meet our debts. Temporary devaluation is a far more acceptable price to pay than a full blown lengthy depression for rich and poor.

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        • The massive amounts of debt can’t be unwind unless a huge depreciation of the currencies,also the euro ,Yen and even the Chinese currency,because also China is dealing with about 1 trillion of bad loans,indeed a very low number in comparison with US debt but you never know the real numbers.
          I guess China is loading up gold because they want to have enough collateral against their holdings of a huge pile of US bonds and also Euro bonds in wich they fear to be trapped, but to enforce their currency to become the new reserve,they need at least 10000 tons of gold and this is not for the near futur I guess,they are masters in deceit and I wouldn’t trust a currency of a totalitarian nation That’s why gold(silver) is the ultimate inssurance against what will eventually happen,better a few years early than one day to late, that is a huge reset of assets against debt(fiatmoney) wich is already going on in many hyped and overpriced US shares,good company shares are save when they are not overpriced wich is not the case , is the possible panic out of the us dollar going to inflate the stock bubble even higher ? Possibly yes but instead I think there will be a huge escape out of the stock bubble like it always happened for the last 25 years when financial panic occurs and because of the escape out of shares the usd could temporally even soar against the other fiat currencies as it did in 2008,but the ultimate save haven in the longer term remains physical gold to protect at least half of your assets,junk silver coins will do for the groceries when the light goes out,with the rest you can play in the stock casino with possible nice gains but also keep in mind for a total loss,because the financial sytem is rigged and artificially set by the cartel…guess,guess who are they?

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        • Leslie: Would be interested in knowing what you define as “healthy growth” as the only thing that could be defined as experiencing “healthy growth” currently is “DEBT” if you are applying the word healthy as meaning substantial, certainly applied to debt it is not desirable.
          Since our currency on a world scale is “borrowed into existence as debt” how can we ever experience “healthy growth” in our economies when an ever greater portion of the average wage earners income goes to interest and taxes to cover government debt? Before you attempt an answer read my comment to Steinfeld who posted end of Jan.

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  22. ADD IF not clear I meant gold more stable than dollar. Could have diamond backed money or Pearl backed money but diamonds burn & pearls dissolve in wine. With nod to P.J. O’rourke After we “eat the rich” where next do we turn?

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  23. I was afraid when I saw the gold (metal)price push dawn without any of the usual excuses
    and the dollar did not move ,I though there is some gov. making dollars but not excavating gold and felt the equation unbalanced in favor of gov. spending, I am still afraid
    US. sadfully would be closing the gap with P.I.G.S. economy if the dollar were backup by gold ,no printing, no spending, no way to pay debt ,as for now printing dollars with the honest workers purchasing power ink, is devaluation the same.
    dooms day could come a day that chinesse offer a currency backup in gold for internationals transactions and government reserve isn’t it? even if it is only half backed.
    Porter is right , the concept of owning land is a solution,the problem is where? I would say
    Norway? US?

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    • Owning housing or land in a depression is a great way to loose money.
      as mentioned above in my reply to Frank Archambeau suffering a temporary devaluation is far better than suffering a full blown lengthy depression. Gold backed currencies were abandoned precisely because they bring about depressions and stiffle world trade. Both of which empoverish us far more.

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      • Deflation is good for common people ,but bad for the ridge because they can’t create wealth out of thin air ,a house is to live in and protection against inflation if you bought it on the cheap,since real estate is hugly overpriced in many countries and especially in the UK and also in many countries overtaxed it’s something to ignore these days.
        If you think that we are in a temporary devaluation,think twice ,the current cheating of extend and pretend is soon coming to a screeching halt and that will create a full blown depression,they can’t keep creating smoke and mirrors and increase debt load for ever without eventually hitting the wall,we are sitting on ticking time bomb ,the only question is when? Better a few years early than one day to late to go for protection and that wil not be in overpriced London real estate,I understand the Britts only have a poor 300 tons gold left to cover their overpriced pound and therefor are in denial of the need of having enough gold, the Uk is very lucky that for instance many French left their country to go to do bussines in London because France is ruled by an idiot who only thrives and steals from productive people and redistribute it to an army of unproductive +5 million’ fonctionaires’ and creating poverty to millions common French citizens,the damage done trough this braindrain is huge and almost unreparable unless they kick that idiot out and go for a total different direction of encouraging investments and entrepreneership trough massively bring down taxes and social security costs .I know it’s not going to happen because it’s in their genes and it will eventually end up in war as it did several times in history.
        The UK wants to be part of Europe to take advantage of it but dont want to go for the rules and commitments of the EU,as long as they can get away with that the UK does quiet well without decent goldreserves but the time when the big reset occurs I think they will revisit the bad times of the 80′s,only the ridge escape from this ,they become only a bit less ridge but middle class gets wiped out and the backbone of the country wil vanish and bring a massive change in daily live and finally end mass consumption on wich our current economical and financial system depends.
        London is an important financial center and thriving on overpriced paper assets wich can be wiped out in a blink of an eye ,remember 2008,if no QE what would have happened ? The next crisis how are they going to rescue then? New massive even bigger QE’s?

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      • Really Leslie, “Gold backed currencies were abandoned precisely because they bring about depressions and stifle world trade.” Reality, politicians who want to spend, spend and spend some more, do not like the discipline that gold imposes, simply creating dollars via the printing press is so much easier and costs only the price of paper and ink. If they had to go into the mines to work hard to dig up tons of precious metals to earn a living they would soon learn putting ink to paper is not the way to create real. wealth. Would you agree with me that our money supply should be equal too and determined by the production of the country, with no free ride for anyone?

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  24. Early on in thread [post 2] there was a question about ‘sun gas’. There is currently a lot of research being done on premise & I am not sure which is being pitched. That said sun gas deals with trying to convert solar to hydrogen not using hydrolysis, briefly ;conversion of solar energy to heat to produce hydrogen and CO from water & methane. In other words conversion of solar energy to chemical energy to heat to boil water to generate elecrticity or if not want electricity convert chemical to fuel. Dizzy yet? By the way plants do this much more efficiently thru photo-synthesis. IMHO bio-fuel from algae much more likely to repay investment. http://journal.iisc.ernet.in/index.php/iisc/article/view/23 I think money is to made from vast quantities being spent in effort to stop use of fossil fuels. Can we agree that we all desire healthy environment? Evolution of climate is a fact; I think facts show that deforestation [both logging and 'natural' fires], volcanic release of CO2, biological processes [ think respiration,digestive gas & decomposition of organisms] and natural chemical processes in earth are much greater effect than our use of fossil fuel. I wonder how much hatred of “greedy” producers contributes. If, as seems to be case often, greed is desire for more we are all greedy, ‘ may have enough food for today but want more for tomorrow’. Are greedy govt. class more saintly than greedy producers of goods? Are greedy scientists more saintly than truck drivers? Are greedy investors more saintly than suppliers of our needs? Perhaps worth pondering.

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  25. I don’t usually participate in the comments but I am an eager reader of whatever Travis has to say about investing.
    I read a comment regarding the position of john Mauldin on the dollar and the fractional reserve system. I read also Mr. Mauldin and I respect him, but you have to know that he is also selling many newsletters and other services and he is a friend of Mr. Casey. So much so that he is participating in an event that will be held in Cafayate next March.

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  26. For now, US$ is one safe haven for the world. I think its value represents the country’s GDP, taxing ability, and military. It is of value because we all agree it is of value, though some are forced to the position kicking & screaming. Utilitarian items, such as acreage, housing, copper, silver, wheat, corn, and, in our milieu, such items as an iphone or a subaru, are of value, as are the enterprises that produce the things we use. Therefore, investments in the above should pan out if bought at the right price. Gold. . . well, it’s probably in for a short-term correction, say at least three months, because it rose on a very flat double bottom with no spike lower, just a steady slide then smooth rise. Isn’t there supposed to be capitulation, panic selling, practically no bid before a major turn? Just like the dollar, it’s of value mainly because we all agree (enough of us, anyhow), that it is “nice” to own.

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    • Stan; I cannot disagree with anything you state. The question is mainly when gold to dollar ratio change occurs. In a way it seems strange to expend so much effort in digging something from the earth & then for the most part rebury it in vaults. None the less I don’t think many would refuse the gift of a kilo or two of gold.

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  27. It seems to me that the dollar with interest compounded has increased far more than Gold since 1792 the earliest records I can find for gold prices.
    in 1792 gold was worth $19.99 and closed in 2013 at 1204.5 a 60.25 increase in value
    $ 19.99 invested long term in 1792 on the basis of 3.5% pa compounded, would be worth at the end of 2013 $2073.75 a 103.74 increase. I dare say it could be argued that far higher interest rates were achievable over this period than the 3.5% i have taken. It could also be argued that in order to hold gold securely, considerable expense is required which I have not accounted for in this exercise. So historically over a long period of time the $ has proved to be a far greater store of wealth than Gold which produces nothing and costs money to store safely. It only moves up drastically in times of fear, when people see it as a safe haven and goes down drastically from previous dizzy heights when other investments appear far better in more normal times.
    Thus it would seem that those who see Gold as a store of wealth delude themselves by taking comparatively far shorter time periods to make their case which on the very long term does not stand up to scrutiny.
    Buffet explained very clearly why stock investments are far better than Gold in the long term in his 2011 letter to Berkshire shareholders
    Quote
    “Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce — gold’s price as I write this — its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
    “Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobil’s (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
    “A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops — and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.”
    “Our country’s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial “cows” will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of “milk” to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well).
    “I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner… More important, it will be by far the safest.”
    Unquote
    Words of wisdom as far as I am concerned that investor in Gold should heed and that convinced me of the folly of owning Gold at $1,750 as a store of wealth.

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    • Leslie; I think many would sell gold to you at your rate of exchange. Did you forget gold is priced in troy ounces? I ran your figures & arrived at $7,854 trillion. I do agree that the means/abilities of the people are the true measure for expected increase in “wealth” & I think at present USA is unrivaled & will continue so if Govt. does not destroy willingness of the people to produce.

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    • Maybe history shows that usd with intrest rates compounding did better than gold over the last 100 years but the actual massive debt pile was untill a few years ago only a small amount of what it represents now,it went up +200% since 2008,so the question is what will be the impact of this huge pile of debt on the fiat curencies in the near futur or in a few years to come? That is what you need to think about now not what happened in the passed because the debt pile was never as huge as it is now and still growing ,the eventual possible outcome could be very beneficial for gold when gravity kicks in. I know that eventually after a huge depreciation of fiat, gold will better be traded for better assets, as cheap shares after a huge crash and in the new or very deflated currency after the reset,but for now it’s good to be carefull

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    • Interesting case you try to make with a one-sided argument, but it has one fatal flaw. Nowhere in your lengthy explanation did I see any mention of “purchasing power” which is the ultimate consideration, i.e. store of VALUE! Name one other currency in history besides the U.S. dollar that has survived for 100 years? Gold in contrast has for 5000 years bought a pretty steady amount of any commodity you want to name, a suit of clothes, bushels of wheat, gallons of oil etc. So there is only real question that needs to be asked to fairly COMPARE the value of an oz. of. gold with “dollars” that no longer have any defined value. SO, lets use the U.S. governments “defined value” of $35. for an ounce of gold (after first having robbed their citizens of their only real money) and compare how much $35, would BUY of any useful commodity essential to human life compared to the purchasing power of an oz. of gold. TRUTH; the DOLLAR was originally defined in the coinage act of 1792 as 417 grams of standard silver, (used as money historically by more nations than used gold) and what do we find. Compared to the value of a dollar when the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was enacted, the wimp of a dollar we use today has LOST 98% of its purchasing power.
      No matter how pretty the paper or colourful the ink, no countries currency in all of history has provided good wealth preservation in terms of purchasing power, most of them are extinct as the U.S. dollar soon will be, (2% left to go) before it too like every fiat currency will soon have returned to its intrinsic value of ZERO! The reason the effort to hold down the price of gold is so intense and manipulated by the bankers is because they know a rising gold price exposes their Ponzi scheme of fractional reserve banking that enriches them while impoverishing the masses. But you protest, the dollar is backed by the “full faith and credit of the U.S. government” so, given the results of the last hundred years, an un-payable debt of $17.5 TRILLION dollars how long do you think FAITH in human substitutes for real money and the governments that create them will last? It is a CON game, derived from confidence, and when the masses finally discovery how they have been hood-winked by their elected leaders, they will hold them accountable and demand honest money.

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    • Frank
      Below the calculation, I fear the over-exuberance of gold bugs may have affected your maths. It is however irrefutable that your calculations are very mistaken.
      1 oz = 0.91 troy oz
      1lb. = 0.091*16 = 14.56 troy oz
      1 kg = 2.2046 lbs * 14.56 = 32.098 troy oz
      1 metric ton= 1000*32.098 = 32,098 troy oz
      32098 troy oz * 170,000 metric tons * $1,750 per oz = $ 9.549155 trillion
      Which was very generously rounded up to $9.6 trillion.
      My apologies for highlighting your error but it is important that the very poignant irrefutable point I make is not wrongly dismissed by your mathematical genuine mistake.
      Leslie

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      • Leslie thank you for the correction. I just ran figures for present price & arrive at approximate $7.105 Trillion price for total world gold supply. I know that neither price or supply is constant so figure is subject to change.

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  28. Why not request the figures on Ft Knox gold and Fed Reserve NY gold via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) letters to US Treasury & the Fed?

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  29. http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm

    I haven’t heard any reference to the Fedwire, which was created right before BTC became publicly traded. The dollar only holds 3% of its value compared to before the Fed Reserve Act, 1-4 Americans lives below poverty line and half are on some kind of gvmnt assistance (dshs.gov). Inflation is steady at +/-3% and unemployment is steady at +/-8%, but what we dont hear about is the devaluation at light speed to accompany higher taxes, fees, licensing, regulations etc that are turning the middle class into the working poor.

    Dollars equals debt. Period. Fiat is corrupt elite’s wet dream because they can buy votes by giving “free” shit in exchange for votes. What we do know is that foreign investors and nations aren’t buying our debt anymore, we’re printing money at light speed and all the foreign money we sent out is also coming back at astronomical rates. Mathematically, unless Uncle Sammy hikes taxes another 10%-15% or starts confiscating assets (history shows broke gvmnts always do 100% of the time. See: 1933) then the dollar is dead no later than 2016.

    ^^ That is why Barry will backdoor MyRA, in addition to already passing ACA unconstitutionally. Nobody to buy our debt? Make Americans do it for returns that dont even cover inflation. It will start as voluntary and with the stroke of the pen will be mandatory. Meanwhile, digital currency is mostly what private bankers deal in anyways with Fedwire, and since its through the Fed, its outside of legal jurisdictions, audit, oversight or verification. Its a digital money tree, wherein the trusty gubmint can track your every single move as we move into the age of “smart cities”.

    With 660+ trillion made up dollars floating through the private banking system, and with the luxury of getting taxpayers to fund it in addition to carrying the debt and being charged interest, there is no reason to believe digital money will not take over. Btw, fedwire started april 19th 2009 just to offer food for thought.

    OIL is the US primary resource and Rockefeller was able to control supply and demand with “global warming” and “green laws and taxes”. The small to mid size oil companies are being taxed and regulated out, while behemoths are getting hundreds of billions right back via taxpayer subsidies. I won’t even get into shale and the foreign “black market” for twice the profit.w What’s happening is that gold, oil, gems, crypto and other commodities (‘member monsanto?) Will back a digital currency. Its not IF but WHEN.

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    • Crypto Coby It seems to me it is not if but when a digital currency wipes you out. Together with all the gold fanatics who delude themselves into thinking Gold is a great store of wealth, in the long term, when it clearly is not as we recover from recession having avoided depression thanks to the Fed. and as Global growth is about to expand exponentially and create the longest bull run we have ever seen on the back of billions of consumers becoming ever richer in China, India and a host of developing countries and their clear love of Western luxury , products and Technology. Rather than cursing the Fed you should be praising them to the rafters We are all far richer than we would have been had they allowed the economy to go into a major depression the likes of which would have made all previous depressions seem like a walk in the Park. Count your lucky stars give endless thanks to the FED for their terrific guidance and management,,they really know what they are doing, far better than you or I, thank God. The debts gathered will pale into insignificance with the boom we are abouy yo have. I would remind all the State of the world economy and the by comparisoin the even greater debts that existed and how they simply did not prove to be catastrophic in the unprecedented boom that followed. The Printing presses of the USA had gone into overdrive to put the world back on its feet with the courage and brilliance of the Marshall plan. Their courage faith paid off handsomely.

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      • Sorry should have checked what I wrote.Above should have read ” I would remind you all the state of the world economy after WWII.”

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      • Leslie: Do you work for the FED, or in your case the Bank of England, or do you think $17.5 Trillion debt is of no consequence? If so, what kind of marks did you get in mathematics when you went to school? Given the total amount of debt in the world at all levels of government on down to corporations and private citizens that originated from the U.S. model of Central Banking and fiat (phony) currency how could you possibly praise the FED?
        While i am inclined to laugh at your statement, “thank your lucky stars, give endless thanks to the FED, for their terrific guidance and management” yeh, all $17.5 TRILLION worth.

        Can’t you understand that the problem was simply a badly flawed system and what they were doing in avoiding a depression is simply tinkering with the system to keep their Ponzi scheme going as long as possible? The looming depression as all of them previously, was CAUSED by the corrupt system they originally designed to enrich themselves. Instead of actually “FIXING” it to protect the consumer, they just shoved the evil day of reckoning down the road a little further.

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        • I neither work for the Fed or the Bank of England.
          My maths should never be found lacking since it has always been excellent. The calculations in my post are in any case exceedingly basic and correct.
          I can only suggest you free your mind of conspiracy theories and consider seriously the points I make on their own merit as well as what the consequences would have been to your wealth had the Fed simply allowed all the major banks globally merely to fall like a pack of cards and simply made no effort to prevent the economy going into meltdown. That was the alternative. Let me assure you everyone’s wealth would have been decimated to a far greater extent. Ignoring such fundamental considerations merely leads to, with all due respect daft conclusions that simply do not stand up to scrutiny.

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          • The fact that the FED may have prevented a temporary problem of threatened breakdown of the banking system is in itself prima facie proof that the system is faulty. It is the Federal Reserve Act itself that is the fundamental problem, so how can your praise the FED for preventing a problem that they themselves created? You totally ignored every factual point that I made, you never directly addressed a single fact I stated in rebuttal to your thesis.

            All you basically did was defend your own mathematical prowess while ignoring counter-points presented. So tell me by what slight of hand is your beloved FED going to engineer repayment of a $17.5 TRILLION debt, or do you believe they can forever keep printing currency created out of thin air on which they demand interest without the system breaking down? I am not into conspiracy theories, I look at the mathematical facts and that means your numbers are badly flawed because they do not take into consideration the hundreds of trillions of dollars of debt (on a world scale) that this badly flawed system of fractional reserve banking has produced.

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          • It is disingenuous of you to describe the Fed’s saving of the entire global banking system as a temporary problem.
            Also to suggest that it was the Fed who was responsible for the creation of the problem in the first place is simply not true. That professional bankers and investors, negligently, relied on rating agencies to assess the risk of their investments and that these professional rating agencies, grossly negligently gave a AAA rating to investments that should have been rated as Junk is certainly not the fault of the Fed. Professional investors and their advisers are of course free to be able to take their investment decisions without interference.
            The Fed is not part of a nanny state that prevents experts from taking their own investment decisions and making their own assessments as to the risk of any of their investments. That the Fed has a duty to attempt to clear up the consequences of such a devastating mess is clear. That the Fed has so successfully dealt with this vast problem, prevented the collapse of the global banking system, as well as prevent a depression like we’ve never seen before and still maintained confidence in the global financial system, is of course a very impressive achievement. Hats off to the Fed. Far from being a failure of system it has proved to be a most flexible system that is undeniably very robust. There are always lessons to be learned however it is clear that great improvements from historic events that tipped us into depression have occurred. In
            Bernanke we had an expert who had studied the lessons to be learned from the previous great depression and applied them.
            Most of the points you make have actually been addressed in my previous postings above and I did not feel the need to repeat these and bore everyone to tears.

            “It seems to me that the dollar with interest compounded has increased far more than Gold since 1792 the earliest records I can find for gold prices.
            in 1792 gold was worth $19.99 and closed in 2013 at 1204.5 a 60.25 increase in value
            $ 19.99 invested long term in 1792 on the basis of 3.5% pa compounded, would be worth at the end of 2013 $2073.75 a 103.74 increase. I dare say it could be argued that far higher interest rates were achievable over this period than the 3.5% i have taken. It could also be argued that in order to hold gold securely, considerable expense is required which I have not accounted for in this exercise. So historically over a long period of time the $ has proved to be a far greater store of wealth than Gold which produces nothing and costs money to store safely. ”
            I trust this more than adequately deals with your real value point in the long term mathematically over the entire span of recorded data that is available. It is of course misleading to deliberately and conveniently select far shorter time periods to prove the opposite as almost all gold bugs do. The mathematics I rely on are correct and compare like with like properly rather than selectively to delude oneself.
            I have also highlighted how Germany and Europe repayed vast debts to the USA under the Marshall plan following WWII. These were far greater pro rata then the debts the USA currently has. These were also made available curtesy of the USA’s printing presses. The boom that followed enabled all these vast debts to be repaid entirely and set all these European countries on a course to prosperity and made the USA enjoy unprecedented prosperity. The driving force to repaying the debts and delivering unprecedented prosperity is of course the exponential expansion in the demand for the USA’s technology goods and services, as the vast Chinese, Indian, populations become richer and can afford them in far greater numbers as well as the vast incomes and taxation that flows from the truly vast energy reserves and diversity of energy harnessed that now make the USA not only self sufficient in energy but will also make it the biggest energy producer in the world and a net exporter of energy. USA manufacturers enjoy some of the cheapest energy in the developed world as well as a competitive exchange rate now.
            Just as the vast debts accrued after WWII paled into insignificance so will the USA’s debts in record time.

            Even if the rumours that there is not enough above ground gold to cover all the paper that was issued any default on the paper or the delivering up of physical gold from the vaults will very badly undermine the Gold market and as a result the majority of investors in gold. They simply cannot themselves store the gold or take the risk of storing the gold on their premises under their control at all times. Nor can they trust in
            paper or others to hold it for them. Gold will then not be an investment vehicle most people can have faith in and accept.
            The actual shortage of gold will in fact under these default circumstances cause gold to go down as confidence is entirely lost in the gold market and everyone bails out of the investment. Is this not the reason for the current drops from the high? It’s the only thing that makes sense when the USA tells Germany it will deliver its gold from its stores over 7 years? 7 Years!!!! Confidence in the market and vaults is fast disappearing and it is probably only a matter of time before most want out of this market. Without confidence in any market there is no market.
            Gold bugs heads you loose tails you loose, this is not a risk reward prospect I can take on or fancy no matter how short gold may be and what happens to the price. At times it is best just to get out of a market in which confidence is likely to be lost.
            An investment lesson I learnt a very long time ago NEVER GO AGAINST THE FED. When the Fed needs prices to go down they will go down by hook or by crook, their influence, power and pockets are far greater than any one else’s for it to be a sensible proposition to oppose them. Guess who needs gold prices to go down to replenish their stocks easily and more cheaply. Is not a managed loss of confidence in the gold market the only way to achieve such an aim and curb demand drastically on a market that is short of Gold? With so many new amateur gold investors, how long will it take to get them to loose confidence in the market and their alleged gold holdings. Is not this plan working wonderfully currently. How else do you explain the drop from the highs following the announcement that they will deliver German gold from their vaults in 7 years. 7 years!!! At a time when tensions with Russia Syria the Middle East have gone through the roof etc etc. What more do you need to see to recognise the build up of fear and loss of confidence?

            Loss of confidence in the gold market will have investors eventually stampeding out of it. If you hold paper do you really own gold will you stick around for defaults and bankruptcies ? If you allegedly have gold in a vault do you really want to store it on your premises to be sure you do not risk the vaults default and bankruptcy or will you scramble out and sell the paper and gold ? I repeat confidence in a market is everything, otherwise there is no market and it suits the Fed for Gold prices to tumble and tumble they have and tumble they will by hook or by crook. Only to be rescued by the Fed when it suits them. Chew on that conspiracy theory! Anyone with deep enough pockets and a printing press capable of squeezing the Fed as they undermine the gold market and cause panic. Never go against the Fed. Join them if anything and make money rather than loose your wealth by going against them, only then to blame them for doing what suits them and the USA best.

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    • I don’t know why I waste my time since nothing Leslie says ever addresses the actual questions I pose to him, he just blithely ignores everything I say or distorts what I said.. Lets see if I can do a little better,. Leslie you say in your opening that I described the problems of the Federal Reserve as “temporary” which is disingenuous to say the least. My contention is that the FED was dealing with a badly flawed system design from its inception and nothing has been done since to actually FIX the foundational design flaws. The threat of a global melt down continues to exist and all the FED is doing is delaying the evil day instead of actually doing anything to acknowledge the flaws and fix the system to restore honest constitutional money.
      Your convoluted reasoning is evidenced by your contention that, “still maintained confidence in the global financial system, is of course a very impressive achievement,” is laughable to say the least. Nobody I know has confidence in the system, in fact the evidence keeps piling up that more and more individuals and indeed entire countries are losing faith in the U.S. dollar because of mismanagement by the FED and are seeking other alternatives with at least 22 countries already agreeing to trade in their national currencies precisely to avoid the U.S. dollar. The next hilarious statement you make is; “historically over a long period of time the $ has proved to be a far greater store of wealth than Gold which produces nothing and costs money to store safely. ” Talk of producing nothing, what exactly has our fiat money produced except un-payable debt? Are you suggesting printed currency does not require protection from theft, what convoluted reasoning! Right, a dollar today buys 2c in an original dollars purchasing power, which is why it now takes 1300 of them to buy an ounce of gold, and if it were not for the manipulation of the bullion banks to suppress the price of gold it would already be double that. The next statement that challenges reality is this; “Just as the vast debts accrued after WWII paled into insignificance so will the USA’s debts in record time.” Really, and what magic event will turn the average one trillion U>S> deficit per year into even half a trillion against that $17, trillion accumulated debt when nearly half the nations is on food stamps to survive and 25% or more adults have no job or are at least underemployed? Students are graduating with an average of $20,000 in debt and can’t get anything but menial jobs that force them to live with their parents. How long can European countries expect to get bailed out by Germany, just to pay interest on their existing debt? The rosy picture you paint is about as believable as government propaganda. This is really funny, “The actual shortage of gold will in fact under these default circumstances cause gold to go down as confidence is entirely lost in the gold market and everyone bails out of the investment. So you think defaults on gold delivery by the Comex or bullion banks will cause people to lose faith in gold, you must be dreaming in technicolor. Its not golds fault, when people discover that the gold in Fort Knox may almost be gone, shipped off too China to meet increasing demand the loss of confidence will be in government and its lies, obfuscation and manipulation of markets.
      It is the DOLLAR that will suffer the loss of confidence and competition to own gold will simply intensify, sending the price parabolic given its already short supply. Finally a statement I can agree with; “At times it is best just to get out of a market in which confidence is likely to be lost.” I agree, and number one on my list is paper currencies backed by nothing other than politicians hot air as they print astronomical amounts of increasingly worthless currency. Contrary to your assertions, periodic drops in the price of gold is solely due to manipulation by the bullion banks, and would not exist in a free market. Evidence of that is accumulating and documents that will stand up in a court of law are piling up with numerous lawsuits already in progress. The very fact that every effort to audit the FED for 50 plus years has failed should make every sound thinking person to ask what they have to hide. Adding to the suspicions is the situation with the German gold, it is not hard to figure out that the FED or U.S. government does not have the gold to deliver and once again as the PROOF becomes public knowledge, it is the FED and government in which faith will be deservedly lost. Your delusional reasoning seems to be that investors will lose, (note spelling) faith in gold once they have been cheated out of the gold they thought they bought based on false paper promises. I think it would more likely cause a loss of faith in “paper promises” and a heightened desire to actually own the real thing, adding to demand leading to higher prices as demand outstrips supply. Interesting that you use the term “by hook or by crook” so you are in effect admitting that the FED is run by crooks and you shouldn’t fight them because they will achieve their goals no matter what. Maybe you should consider the words of your famous countryman Edmund Burke who famously said; ” the only thing necessary for evil to triumph, is that good men do nothing” which you seem to be advocating. So you think a $17.5 TRILLION debt caused by FED policies is acting in the best interests of the U.S. I will leave you to your delusions.

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      • Myron; Excellent expose. I agree with your conclusions. Only the delusional would think it possible to borrow your way out of debt or that delaying addressing the causes could help the situation. IMHO of course.

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      • Well I am not about to try to debunk what Myron or Leslie say here – they both toss around numbers that I can’t verify or would even want to. But my impression is that Myron is far too pessimistic and perhaps Leslie a bit overoptimistic. I for one find my glass better than half full – always an eternal optimist and believe optimism is essential for being happy. But I know our debt has been accumulated over time and many presidents, and the latest spike partly from the Iraq war thanks to Bush and/or Cheney and the bank bailouts (under Bush) and then the stimulus under Obama. And I agree totally with Leslie that without those last two the world financial system would be a lot worse and we would all be far worst off (except for the added debt). But our debt is not just due to these few items mentioned above. It stems in large part from the loss of manufacturing jobs to first Japan and then to China as the losses accelerated due to the huge difference in the cost of labor there and here. But the rise of the global market that created the huge trade inequality between China and the west has made their workers richer, raised the costs of labor there while creating a middle class there and in India and will in time in other third world nations that currently do our most intensive labor jobs like making clothes. The rising middle classes there will buy our goods. China is also realizing it can’t live with the unchecked pollution of the cheap manufacturing either and so the cost of manufacturing both from higher cost middle class labor and from new pollution controls is rising dramatically in the far east. In reality the very global market that made our trade so lopsided and cost us so many manufacturing jobs is slowly beginning to even that out again. It already did with Japan – we no longer have huge trade deficits with them as we did before China took over. With our energy self sufficiency, manufacturing is coming back to roost here in the states once again. It will be slow and there are still third world places where labor remains too cheap to compete with but the playing field is getting more level, not more tilted. And that gives me great hope for a coming world economic boom that Leslie predicts and that the US will participate in that fully. With growing employment here and gradual inflation our governments will see higher tax revenues and begin to pay down debt. So long as we decrease our debt slowly, I see no problems, even if the rate will take hundreds of years – as long as we make progress on that total debt we will slowly grow out of it in the lifetimes of perhaps our grandchildren or their children. But certainly to speed that along I think an increased minimum wage would help and we need labor to organize abroad to demand benefits and better wages which will level the world playing field more, and we need the pendulum to swing back toward stronger unions here but that will only come when good workers are hard to come by, and jobs are plentiful. We have seen the wealth of the manufacturing world go dramatically more and more to the wealthy not to our workers and to pay down our debt that needs to balance again with more of the wealth going to the workers who in turn actually pay a much larger portion of their total earnings as taxes than the rich do with offshore heavens and low capital gains taxes. Don’t get me wrong the rich pay lots of taxes but the middle class is who pays the most in total into our treasury and the return of a strong middle class is what is needed most to pay down our debt and prevent new debt from adding to the huge debt. Myron makes all sorts of calculations on the present but does not see the changes in the world as a whole that are coming or could come to reduce the doom he sees, He is likely part right, but I think slow but persistent inflation and far improved tax receipts by our government will disprove his most dire predictions and make Leslie’s “delusions” much more the future reality. But this is speculation and hope, based not on present statistics that don’t tell us much when we can’t predict the future.

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  30. Interesting take from Bloomberg last night on China’s attachment to the dollar: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-17/china-digs-itself-deeper-into-dollar-trap.html

    In part…

    “Although the Communist Party wields great power over the masses, it remains extraordinarily sensitive to spikes in public outrage. Those worries are increasing amid tepid global growth, as Chinese leaders struggle to keep their own economy expanding at more than 7 percent. As Prasad writes, ‘China now has a strong incentive to support the dollar’s value, limiting its losses for the time being but at the cost of getting even more entangled in the dollar’s sticky web.’”

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    • Travis; thank you for Bloomberg link. What is your take as to implications? I think that despite China’s absorbing $1.7 trillion U.S. debt will not keep up with U.S. determination to monetize. I never see commented on that in fractional banking systemt every $ charged on credit card increases money supply on top of what Fed is printing. Worldwide rise of shadow banking [outside of govt. control] ,electronic trading including increasingly automated FX trades & increasing inability to track or foresee Billions of individual decisions to buy or sell or neither [which make up global economy] makes future very uncertain. There simply is not enough gold in existence to have global gold standard.

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  31. Is real estate the solution for the naysayers? Were there foreclosures in the last several years? More than usual? Were farms foreclosed on in the years following 1929, ala Steinbeck, Grapes of Wrath? Just a few? Did the dust bowl exist then? Until the recession, cab drivers in California were buying $300,000 homes, knowing that next month they would sell for $350,000. And in 1929, shoe shine men were offering tips on the stock market. Though bad memories are short, real estate does go up AND down in market value. What is the record of securities since 1929 or so? Are they more valuable now than then? Doomsday predictors have always sold all their possessions and waited for the moment of doom to arrive. All were disappointed. And all said and were saying: “Well, maybe I was wrong as to date. Now I know that it will come on September ??, 2014.” Sell all your worldly possessions if you haven’t done so before. Charles

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  32. There is a lot of gold in proven reserves. Most of it is owned by RIO & BHP.
    They don’t mine it, even though their cost would be low.
    The biggest share holders are the same people who run “Big Oil”.
    The only threat to the status quo that puts them in charge of the world, would be cheap hydrogen.
    That is coming in the form of “Bacterial Hydrogen” which uses natural processes to break down biomass, (or any carbon based life form) into hydrogen of purity sufficient to fuel that long promised “Fuel Cell”. This “short path Krebs Cycle” is the best way to obtain the “Hydrogen Economy” that we have been promised for the past 100 years…
    It will take about 20% more biomass (by weight) to allow us to use this process in place of Oil and Coal.
    There may be a bacteria cocktail that will convert Coal and Oil into Hydrogen too.
    It is probable that in the near future you will be able to put your kitchen and garden waste in to your “Bio Refinery” and use your Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) to power your home and auto.
    It is more probable that large scale electric generation will be “bio gas” based. Which could be used to power high speed transportation of mass goods to market.
    Among “problems that must be solved” are:
    Political resistance from “Vested Interests”, which don’t want to lose subsidies (direct nor indirect) that gives them “control” (direct and indirect) of governments.
    ( Examples of the lack of awareness of our present “Leadership” are things like:
    The push for High Speed Passenger Trains, when we will soon have non polluting High Speed Personal Autos, thanks to Google and Apple self driving car systems.
    Programs like “CalCharge” that spend huge amounts to back losing technology. )
    Finding ways to increase fuel crop amounts without cutting down forests and reducing available food supplies…algae, seaweed, grasses, and reeds are among the best choices for that.
    Gold is just a good way to put things into perspective…the old 1oz can buy a good suit analogy…
    There is a lot of gold on and in the earth. Howard Hughes thought he could get it out of seawater, and if his company keeps making deep drilling technology better, maybe we will just tap that molten core, where most of it is…
    So in light of recent developments, it might make sense to invest in education and research, and to get our kids out in the natural world where the answers to poverty and war lie….but that takes too long, and doesn’t make good “consumers”..
    I expect the next high speed ” Personal Transport Pods” (PTP?) will use self driving software, to guide relatively non polluting vehicles.
    After Mercedes, and GM roll out their HFC cars next year, they will be built in China by Warren Buffets Build You Dream Car company, or maybe those TaTas will do it…
    I KNOW, that no red blooded American Woman will easily give up her PTP, no matter who makes it.
    What this all means in the short run is that we need to get money out of politics, have a verifiable voting system (Google vote, anyone?), and educate everyone about what their own true interests can be…without the hindrance of the “Oil Oligarchs”…

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      • pf-says:
        march 8,2014 at 3:30 pm.
        Mr.Travis,I purchased 5000 shares of western grathite & another 5K shares of american graphite.so far I have not seen any movement at all.Are these scam companies? please let me know thanks!!!!!!

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    • I agree that “vested interests” are perhaps the biggest threat to human progress and the two main vested interests are government and the Central Bankers and Central planners, they are the primary defenders of the stays quo.

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      • Yeah. Vested interests are a huge problem. But its everyone’s vested interests. There is absolutely no consensus anywhere. All I hear is strident bickering “sound and fury, signifying nothing”. As long as the people are polarized, the powers that be have absolutely nothing to worry about. Things are going to have to get a lot worse, (bad enough for people to put aside their differences and work together) before they get better. If they ever do get better.

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      • Myron; I absolutely agree,,,When central planners come in thru door freedom flies out window,,,,so said my former Russian neighbor. He had much experience of beloved leadership of former Soviet Socialist Republics. He says he sees familiar things occurring. It is remarkable how wealth seems to accrue to Government class as it is stripped from private citizens.

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  33. I love Travis but in this report he swerves a number of interesting (possibly critical) points made by Stansberry. No nation can survive by getting so deeply into debt and printing money in an attempt to get out of it. This critical problem is compounded by other nations ganging up to trade in other currencies to replace the US$. This is starting to happen. Look out for the warning signs, including announcements that groups of nations choose to trade commodities, including oil, in other than the US dollar. Another sign is the head of the Fed telling you that there is no crisis.

    Do not think that mighty America is averse to a financial crisis when the money ship is sinking due to grossly excessive government spending and waste and industry going elsewhere.

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  34. The separation of water into hydrogen and oxygen is indeed very energy intensive. However, the recombination accomplished by use of fuel cells is highly efficient. Although this is an oxidation, it is not combustion or ignition. This should not be compared to the efficiencies of burning of fossil fuels or natural gas in a turbine or to produce steam. The down side is that most fuel cells cannot be turned off and on at will and must not run out of fuel.

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  35. I guess, according to Mr. Opdyke, I will be one of the victims of this upcoming American tragedy. However, there are two points I want to make and I am curious as to how others will feel about them.
    (1) Mr. Opdyke sees China becoming a gold powerful nation, and that they will provide the next “world currency.” This could be a possibility if it weren’t for one tiny reason. China, as powerful as she is, is still largely the last and biggest Communistic nation on the earth. The Tiananmen Square issue still engraves that point to me all the time. Would the world entrust their currencies to a nation who would open fire on their own young for expressing opinions? For all of our economic faults, I truly believe our American Democratic government would never do or commit such an atrocity to her own or to an ally’s citizens. The difference between Communistic and Democratic governments has to make a heavily dramatic difference in the thinking of switching of the “World Currency” from the United States to any Communist Nation.
    (2) The one thing that’s puzzling to me about Mr. Opdyke’s thesis is he keeps on alluding to the idea of accumulation wealth in the terms of dollars. He even points out various plans that will keep us dollar rich in the future. It appears to confuse his belief of the demise of the dollar on one hand, while attempting to sell his newspaper for dollars and the wealth of his readership in dollars, as well as gold and silver. I remain confused by these contradictions. Does anyone else see it this way?

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    • The three best metal streamers are Franco Neavda-FNV, Royal Gold-RGLD, SilverWeaton-SLW. At some point this year you will want to get out of USD’s and convert it “hold in your hand” hard assets. Gold preserves your wealth as it has done for 5,000 years. U.S. Silver coins (pre 1965) gives you the ability to purchase smaller amounts of product for daily living. Hyperinflation will come to the whole world within the next couple of years. Prepare accordingly. Don’t forget the number one item for survival is clean water. You can only live a few days without water but many days if not weeks live with food.

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      • To L. Lewis,
        Thanks for the tips on the metal streamers. They will be food for thought. As for gold preserving wealth, if you’re buying into the idea that the USA will fall like the Roman Empire fell and all the other empires saw their ends then I would suppose you need to ask the question who will be supplying the US with foodstuffs and providing us with clean wholesome water? From your response it sounds like everything will be available to those with the gold, and in the interim everyone else (those whom haven’t any gold or silver) will just give up and perish. None of this appears to make a lot of sense to me. Perhaps, if you said something to the effect that the people (citizens) of the USA would seek the development of isolationism and leave the political agony of world problems to the other nations of the earth, or to the United Nations…..then we could for the next fifty years or so concentrate on building our own nation, growing our own crops, working in our own factories and offices and being both the producers and the buyers of our own products. There’s no shame involved. We’d be working for the survival of the American people and our way of life. I rest assured that many will disagree with my thoughs. So, I pose to you, come up with a better plan that allows for the entire nation to survive and not just those with the gold and silver that according to Mr. Opdyke will be confiscated by our government anyway.

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  36. I’ve given up on the gold and silver doomsday authors. I’ve placed their dates of disaster on my calendar, and when that date comes and goes w/o doomsday, I’ve tried to contact them to ask about what didn’t happen. I couldn’t even contact them, let alone get an answer. So, I don’t read this stuff any more. I like the blog that recommended Las Vegas or the lotteries. I don’t do those either.

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  37. Reminds me of the guy that goes to the print shop and orders 100 posters “The World Will End Tomorrow”. The printer asks him; “Will next week be ok on these?” :-)

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  38. Any hope for us poor folks? I started collecting SS in 2011 at age of 62. I had sunk to a new time low…from a mid level manager making $50k per yr to working retail at $7.50 min wage ( yeah I know its $8 now). I got disgusted trying to live on $18,000/yr so stayed home and collected my SS. After 1 year off my wife said we can’t make it on my SS alone so I am back to work making $8 per hour working 15-20 hrs per week. I would rather be dead…..
    QUESTION….IS there Really any investment I can make that will give me an HONEST income to add to my SS?…or do I reach for the Hemlock, now rather than later?
    I agree with those who say that Porter Stansbury is a fear monger….but like most propagandists, there is some truth to what he says. The dollar is weaker and the countries he mentions ….( in 44 pages of text…MY GOD get a better Copy Wrighter!!!!!!)…are seeking other currencies as the standard…not the dollar. As a businessman ( BSBA in Business Admin and 45 yrs in business)..I know the problems are ..1).Over spending…non balanced budget…2).NO production, capitalism is MAKING things and selling them, not printing money to “spread the wealth”…and 3) people paying NO taxes…the tax laws are made by the thieves in Wash DC ( read the book ” throw them all out”)…so certain companies pay NO taxes or actually get subsidies…like Big OIL…when in fact tax advantage legislation should enable some companies to pay LESS tax to encourage them to invest in economic depressed areas, etc…but EVERYONE should pay SOMETHING…Those are my three points and if elected…NO Politics is one step above drug pushing….ANYWAY…if any one has any idea how a “po’ white boy” like me can make some money…..let me know or else pass me the Hemlock…thanks…Anthony Barbuto, former US Citizen, now an inmate of the Socialist States of America…..R.I.P…..USA….1776-2008….barbuto@optonline.net

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    • You are lucky to be receiving SS in the first place. You are the generation that was told there would be no SS when you retire. Well, surprise surprise, you made it and SS was there. What you should have done is have a job that offered a pension. Oh, that’s right. Companies don’t do that – except for employes that are Union. I think you should burn some incense for Robert Kennedy, the guy who was responsible for your SS now!!!

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      • KG, I am in the same generation. We have known for many years (20, 30, … longer) that
        Social Security was in trouble. When W (Bush) tried to offer solutions to alleviate the
        problem 10 years ago, congress would not help him at all. So now we’re on the
        “downslope” (where more is coming out of the trust fund to retirees, than is being put
        in by current workers), and SS will run out in 25 years (or less). 401(k), 403(b), and IRA
        plans have been around for more than 30 years. Anthony should have been saving more
        while he was employed as a mid-level manager. Then he would not be back into retail @
        $8 an hour (soon to be $10, if Obama has his way) at the age of 66+ !

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        • You can say that SS is in trouble but that is only if we do nothing to fix it. There are easy fixes – either take the cap off earnings subject to SS tax – that would do it alone, or raise the age for benefits as we are living longer and should thus work longer prior to retirement on the largess of those still working. Of course a combination of both would also work. But I would first just take off the cap – problem solved for decades to come. And ditto for Medicare tax – raise more from the tax or raise the age, or both. And the only problem is…. the Koch bothers and their rich elk who buy republican support and block all such fixes because despite being rich enough to not even notice the increase in their tax, they are too stingy to allow it. The democrats can fix SS if you toss out the right wing opposition – but I won’t hold my breath for that.

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  39. Anthony; The sad truth is that the surest way to become a stock market millionaire is to start with 5 mil & lose fourfifths of it. I am trying to preserve what little I have accumulated over many years. My best advice would be do not buy those over-hyped newsletters, you will get far better insight here free or at a very small sum if you subscribe. The trend by both Dems & Reps is that people will have to work longer so they have less time to draw whatever SS is available. In essence they promise that “SS is just fine & we promise to fix it soon”. If you check you will find more Democrat millionaires in Congress than Republican millionaires but they all seem to somehow become more wealthy. If you confiscated all the wealth of the top 1% it would not run the Fed.Govt. for a year. You can fleece a sheep many times but only skin it once. I hate to say it but I think your only viable options are 1. find a job that pays more
    2. cut expenses 3. Give up & let Gov take care of you. I wish it was otherwise.

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  40. Does anyone know why gold continues to be priced in confusing troy oz. instead of grams? Is it just because of London gold fixing. Since most of world has adopted metric why not change to it to lesson confusion in gold pricing.

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  41. Greetings Myron,
    I’m trying to understand what happens if the ‘paper money’ goes defunct? I’m in a debate with another on mortgage loan payments due in ‘dollars’. Is it then automatically required in the replacement denominations? Thanks for the help!

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  42. Katherine; Perhaps this may be a partial answer. In recent history as the dollar loses value inflation increases. The money paying off mortgages has less & less purchasing power. The borrower is better off,the lender loses. Probably no one knows what would happen in a sudden default, for we know not what government & courts might do. Example; stock & bondholders; when GM failed, could not count on precedent to prevent them losing what they should have been first in line to receive. In my opinion I don,t think we are facing a sudden event,,,,likely a gradual tho not slow decline in purchasing power. That is opinion only from what has happened in past.

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  43. Travis, I always thought it was spelled “Shpiel”…guess it’s pronounced that way…..keep up the good detective work. You should ask Barry Ritholtz to borrow his line before he allows posts:

    “Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.”

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  44. The gold versus fiat currency discussion is as fascinating as the stock pumps. One thing that no one mentions is that gold is a fiat currency also–it has value only because everyone agrees it has value. Its intrinsic value is not great since its uses in manufacturing or technology are minimal.
    Also, did anyone watch the recent Dent interview in which Dent and the editor of the Elliott Wave newsletters conclude that the end consequence of the undoubtably worrying trends discussed above will be deflation so severe as to bring gold back to $300 or so?

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    • Good point on gold, though it has a thousand years or so more of human tradition behind it than any other currency — whether that ends up mattering over the next 50 years probably depends as much on the psychology of crowds as on anything else.

      As to whether deflation really settles in, God if I know — central bankers sure know how dangerous it is and are obsessed with fighting it, but I imagine it will be an interesting decade.

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  45. Ok, so the $ is gonna crash and gold will either go to the moon or the dungeon. So what are you gonna do about the sky falling in Dr Zeus? Nothing!! Its beyond your control, so chill out.
    Can anyone imagine a world where you carry your gold bar around and scrape off a few grains to pay for your carrots? You’d get mugged before you got home. The $ is an iou. Whatever form of iou you choose is a fiat currency coz it only represents an iou for a portion of your store of value. That store, must be held in a vault to protect it from thieves and your’ll still spend/swap those fiat iou’s. So whatever happens, you can never get away from some form of fiat. And someone will have to look after that pot and attribute a relative value to it based on supply and demand. Remember that video of someone with a wheelbarrow full of German WW2 cash? They tipped out the cash and stole the wheelbarrow coz that had a value (as a useful tool).
    And what is the commodity that we call value? A store of $’s? A pile of inedible gold? Without a willing buyer and seller, there is no such thing as a store of value, beyond that which you need to sustain life for another day. So, if you really are expecting Armageddon, make sure you have a home where you can grow your next meal and get fresh water….Oh, and buy a very big gun so you can survive until all opposition has died of starvation.
    Being a reserve currency is a mixed blessing coz you cant really independently devalue it coz everyone else will follow suit and devalue too……net effect; same numbers owed by US, but twice as many printed $’s to pay it off with. So the gain to the FED (or whatever) is that all those that presently have savings, will have been quietly robbed of a portion of their dormant store of value, and the US can use that to pay off their debt. Unless the US can find a way to sell something to the world in the way China has sold the produce of its cheap labour, (maybe fract gas) thats the only way they will ever be able to pay off the debt. I think its called inflation and has been going on forever.
    China has worked very hard to control the relative value of their currency thereby allowing them to be cheap suppliers of placky crap. The last thing they want is to lose that control by becoming a ‘hands tied’ reserve currency whose value would be propelled upward by others currency manipulations. Also china owns lots of $. Every time the $ devalues 1%, like all other savers, they lose 1% of those savings. Do you really think that they will willingly see 50% devaluation? Ok try this…..the Yuan becomes the reserve…., the $ goes down 50%….the Yuan goes up 50%…..its a wash. NO, coz their placky stuff suddenly got 100% more expensive, so it would be made in the US in the future. Suddenly China has no export markets, and its everyone back to the paddy fields. Revolution?
    The US and China (with too many others to mention) are presently locked in a deadly embrace rather than a dance of death. The $ will stay the reserve (unfortunately for you guys)……your standard of living WILL decline as inflation eats into your fiat store of value and pensions……..the next generation wont give a damn coz their week to week wages will rise to compensate so they can still live quite nicely. In fact, I think its only fair. Why should the next generation pay off the debts this generation has created, and keep us in clover? I see far too many people here worried about how THEY will survive, without out a second thought for how their children/grandchildren will survive.
    May you live in interesting times.

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    • Indeed. I ask many so-called “preppers” what do they tell their children?
      “Don’t worry about your grades in school, it will all be over soon.”
      How sick is that? The Debt is NOT the only thing that our children will inherit but all of the infrastructure we have built. It seems that people think of the debt as useless, yet it is the Debt that represents the money supply in America. Lessen the debt and there is less money to go around. What America needs is more Unions and less free markets. Unless the market has customers, what good is the Free market?

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  46. Like many here, I also wonder whether America deserves the criticism it sometimes gets for being the most military minded country in the world. BUT, having bases in 147 different countries (or so I heard) even with only a few thousand troops there, doesn’t really send out the right signal.

    Having worked in Texas for one of the US’s foremost tech companies 15years ago, I found the people open warm and god-fearing. (Also gun-toting, but that might be just Texas)

    But, the only way that America has been able to fund that military might is because of the FED and the FED got its strength from the U.S gold reserves which after 1945 stood at 20,500 tons.

    Of course when Spain, France and Britain asked for some of that Gold back in return for your paper, leading upto the closing of the Gold window in August 1971, the Americans didn’t like it, but allowed the money printing to go on apace.
    Of course saying that the US would protect the House of Saud, in return the Saudis would ONLY sell their oil in dollars, and would invest their oil money in Dollar Bonds in return for this protection makes the US military sound like an overblown protection racket (which it has tried to be for the 147 countries previously mentioned)

    However, that 20,500 tons of Gold became less than 9,000 tons in the late 60s, but according to one commentator ALL the Gold had gone. SHE promptly fell from her tenth storey apartment window a few days after the report appeared in The Tattler Magazine – the Police said it was suicide though how thoroughly the case was investigated we can only speculate.

    Some 40years later, another whistle blower suffered a similar incident where he felt his life was threatened, and of course in our own Mother of Parliaments, we learned of a secret $15 TRILLION that was sent via SWIFT transfers to European Banks in the heat of the crisis, but which received little or no media attention.

    I could go on, but many little patriots might be offended that I’m somehow painting their beloved country in a negative light.

    Just because 95% (or more) of the population are upright, fine, proud and patriotic citizens, does not mean that the country should be free from criticism, nor should those who beam with pride not also look to those in power to watch over them.

    And as for energy production, perhaps many readers here might like to do a little research around Thorium Metallic Salt Reaction – shelved in favour of Uranium use around 50years ago because of the military applications.

    Thorium, could provide TOTALLY SAFE energy at a fraction of the cost, and size of plant, with huge output, and with ZERO RISK OF MELTDOWN…. BUT there’s too many with fingers in political and military pies to seriously allow it to happen.
    (It doesn’t help that the knowledge and raw materials are not easily produced in the U.S.)

    W
    (http://moneymatterstoo.wordpress.com)

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  47. This is now being pitched by Opdyke again, with pretty much the same spiel, but since April has passed without calamity he has now adopted the same July timeframe that Porter Stansberry has been panicked about. He now says this day of reckoning will come to pass by July 24, 2014.

    And if that doesn’t happen, well, I’m sure we can come up with another date into the future. You can’t go too far into the future, because if you talk about next year or three years from now, there’s no great urgency to sign up for a newsletter — but perhaps if July passes quietly he’ll move on to November, or year-end if he can find some feasible catalyst.

    The perils for the dollar are real on a long-term basis, but the notion that these things will happen quickly is simply a guess that is heavily influenced by ideological positions (things “must” happen) — the global economy has never been this intertwined, the dollar has never been so widely held around the world as it is now, no country has ever had as much debt as the US now has, so we really don’t know what will happen. It would be very easy for geopolitical crises of one kind or another to boost the dollar for many years into the future, there’s great solace to be had in the easy and logical arguments about the end of the dollar’s status as a reserve currency, but it’s hard to see this empire ending with a crash since there is no currency that could come close to replacing the dollar — and there are huge vested interests in maintaining the status quo.

    I continue to think we’ll probably see blips, and will probably see a long, slow depreciation of the dollar, as we have for decades, but that’s just my guess, and I suspect that those of us who look for long-term compounding of wealth and appreciation of assets would do better to put our faith in longstanding, well-managed, productive companies with global businesses rather than just in hard assets like real estate or gold coins. We know that commerce, the making and selling of things, creates value, and that will continue over the long term regardless of the currency that we transact in 25 years from now.

    I do own some gold coins, and some silver, and a bit of real estate, and my portfolio is modestly overweighted in commodity-related and “hard asset” businesses, but I consider that prudent diversification.

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    • Palm Beach’s “Income Extermination” was supposed to happen on June 17, 2014, but now it’s been postponed to September. Any chance of another postponement?

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  48. Porter Stansberry is touting another newsletter claiming that on July 1, 2014 there will be a secret provision in H.R. 2847 that will affect all Americans in many ways. Truthorfiction.com states that it is unproven while Snopes has an extensive analysis of the law and its potential impact upon U.S. investment values and currency Quote from Snopes: “But no credible source that isn’t an investment firm trying to scare potential customers into forking over money for a newsletter subscription is seriously maintaining that a law passed four years ago will, within the next few months, collapse the entire U.S. economic system, destroy the American way of life, and lead to the imposition of martial law.” end quote.
    Read more at http://www.snopes.com/politics/conspiracy/hr2847.asp#jsPUdKP8j6KfijMZ.99

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    • Wooooa. Don’t sling political mud here at more than half the population (that voted for him). I do not consider myself dumb and I voted for Obama twice and am proud of that. I think national health care is great and the republicans should be delighted it is being done thru private insurance. Dems wanted a single payer like Medicare (which by the way works fine and at lower cost that private insurance) but we compromised with the republicans on private insurers, almost like what Mitt got passed in Mass. but now republicans don’t like that? And why – because they want the president to fail and so the right wingers in the house repealed it 50 times but now that it is proving to be successful and popular the right wing no longer says anything about it – they don’t want to say repeal it and have all their voters that are benefiting replace them in DC as a result. All the naysayers are suddenly silent. And I think Snopes is right – nothing is going to have the sky falling on us in the next two months.

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  49. Obviously, you seem to have a filtered (single) view of the Obama Care perspective somehow. It has been interesting visiting this thread but the entire read has taken its toll but before I go, you need to at least read a couple of additional view points. I don’t know where you have been concerning opposing Obama Care views and contrary voices but you may consider a few viewpoints to get you started. I am just too tired to spend any more energy on this. Here are a few:
    “The Cost for 4 Failed Healthcare Exchanges Will Blow Your Mind”
    http://americanprosperity.com/4-failed-obamacare-exchanges-lose-474-million/
    “Another State-Run Health Care Exchange Fails in Epic Fashion”
    “ObamaCare Contractors Paid to Do… Nothing?”
    http://americanprosperity.com/obamacare-contractors-paid-to-do-nothing/

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    • Dear NumberoneD,
      Seems like if anyone here has a “filtered view” it might be because you get your information from Americans for Prosperity – and totally biased ultra right wing voice of the Koch brothers. Both your citations above are from undated (and now very old out of date) articles from them that take a few potshots at the health care plan. Sure there were some issues along the way getting the state sites working and I suppose somewhere you can find someone working for the system with not enough to do to justify their position. A look at the bigger picture however and you find lots of good things happening with it and people getting insurance that did not have it before – and lots of young people too that make it work from a large diverse risk pool. Indeed the right wing has pretty much stopped talking about the health care plan because it is working so well and now criticisms of it will cost them votes so instead all Fox news can seem to dredge up is talk about is non-scandals like Benghazi or the IRS.

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