“Quadruple-play Gold Stock for 2010”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 23, 2009

I haven’t written about Martin Weiss and one of his picks in a little while, and Weiss Research is now promoting a special conference call and “inner circle” investment group that will identify his team’s best picks for 2010.

Including, as apparently one of his favorites, a gold stock. Here’s the intro to the ad:

“Never before in my 40-year investment career have I seen a broader range of global profit opportunities converging into one time and place.

“That’s why, right now, every analyst on my team is preparing to name his #1 investment pick for 2010 during an exclusive teleconference I’m hosting on New Year’s weekend.

“We’re doing this with one simple goal in mind: To help make sure that, when the markets open for the first time in the new year — on January 4th, 2010 — every member of The Weiss Elite will be ready to begin buying the investments we believe can make 2010 your most profitable year ever.

“Here’s just ONE example …

“Our China and resource specialists have uncovered a little-known stock that gives investors FOUR ways to profit as the Federal Reserve continues printing greenbacks like there’s no tomorrow — a recommendation that has “quadruple-play potential” written all over it:

“FIRST: It’s a gold mining company. So the company’s profits and share price should surge as governments, central banks and investors continue pushing gold prices higher.

“SECOND: It’s a CHINESE gold stock, in partnership with the Chinese government. A state-sponsored enterprise owns almost half this company’s shares, giving it the clout and the capital needed to exploit its gold reserves … and a likely built-in customer, as Beijing continues to add substantially to its gold reserves.

“THIRD: It boasts truly outstanding top management. In September, the company announced that revenues had surged by nearly two-thirds over last year. Reason: Not only did gold prices surge, but gold production also surged to a new quarterly record.

“AND FOURTH: This stock gives you substantial leverage. In 2010, the company’s biggest mine is expected to produce gold at a cash price of just ONE-THIRD today’s price of gold.

“Most important, the company’s gold reserves are worth more than ten times the total value of the company’s shares.

“On January 1, my team will name this stock and document why we conservatively believe it could double your money in 2010 even if gold does not surge.”

Well, you know me — your friendly neighborhood Stock Gumshoe is a bit impatient, I don’t want to have to wait until January 1 to hear about this stock. And frankly, I don’t want to pay up $595 to Martin Weiss for this “lifetime” membership in “The Weiss Elite” (this is one of those deals that many publishers do, a big one-time payment in exchange for “lifetime” access to a number of their newsletters — though most of the time these kinds of “elite” deals cost at least a couple thousand bucks, so The Weiss Elite comes off as seeming a bit needy here). The letters in this case are the Asia Stock Alert, Dividend Superstars, Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report and World Currency Alert, most of which I’ve written about from time to time. (A few have been reviewed at Stock Gumshoe Reviews, you can see all the current Weiss-published newsletters that we have reviews on file for here.)

But we had a point, yes? Right! A gold stock to uncover — from those clues we must be talking about …

Jinshan Gold Mines (JIN in Toronto, JINFF on the pink sheets)

Jinshan, which is currently in the process of trying to change its name to China Gold International Resources, is a Canadian company that’s 41% owned by China National Gold, the state-owned gold mining company. Their major mine is Chang Shan Hao, up near the Mongolian border (not too far from former partner Ivanhoe Mines and their Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia, actually — China is the world’s largest gold producer now, and there are several big belts of gold resources that have been identified across Northern China, Mongolia, Russia and the ‘Stan countries). Ivanhoe, incidentally, has also often been a teaser target — they are focused almost entirely on their Mongolian projects now, which finally have a government agreement in place, and they were the ones who sold that then-42% holding in Jinshan to China National Gold.

Jinshan has gotten a significantly higher profile with all the talk about China’s interest in gold, and with the general increase in gold prices (which has obviously faltered a little bit recently) — the shares are up about 100% from when I last wrote about them in July for the Irregulars, when Matt Badiali was touting the shares (I republished that article here on the free site a couple months later, if you’re interested). So it may be a double in 2010, of course, but Weiss’ folks certainly didn’t uncover an unknown investment here.

I am, however, quite certain that this is the stock Weiss will promote on January 1 in that special Weiss Elite “Crucial teleconference” — they did increase revenues by “almost 2/3” in the last quarter (up about 61%, actually), they do have a government partner who owns “nearly half”, and, frankly, they’re one of the few significant China gold mining companies that Americans can easily buy — and Weiss gets little mileage from suggesting stocks that his subscribers would have a hard time buying. I’m actually personally a little more intrigued by Ivanhoe (IVN in both NY and Toronto) these days, and by Eldorado Gold (EGO, or ELD in Toronto — they recently bought the other oft-teased Chinese gold miner, Sino Gold), but have never owned any of these stocks. I did own the other China precious metals miner that gets teased often, Silvercorp Metals (SVM), which is one of the lowest-cost silver producers in the world, but no longer hold those shares, either.

And just to finish up with one more quickie, Weiss does also tease some of the other ideas that his specialists will tout as 2010 winners on January 1 — he doesn’t give specific-enough clues for most of them, but there’s one that’s worth a quick look:

“Like buying all the oil you want at an 85% DISCOUNT. Chances are you’ve never heard of this leading oil and gas producer. It’s in the last place you’d look for a top oil exploration, production, refining and retailing giant.

“But this little-known company boasts gas station operations all over Europe and is now aggressively expanding into more than 40 countries worldwide, including China. While the company controls reserves worth $490 billion at oil’s current price, the total value of its shares is only $73 billion. In that sense, the stock is trading at only 15% of the above-ground value of the company’s reserves.”

I’ll hazard a guess here, since it’s hard to know what numbers they use to come up with these valuations, but I suspect that this is Lukoil (LKOD in London, LUKOY for the pink sheets ADR). This is probably the most underappreciated oil company in the world among investors, true, but it’s hard to fault investors for being wary of a Russian firm — if you’re not a friend of Putin, there’s no guarantee that you get much in the way of shareholder rights. This is true of many countries where we invest these days, where we probably take too much for granted, but Russia worries me more than most.

I could be wrong on this, Lukoil’s market cap right now is actually more like $50 billion — a closer bet for that market cap, just FYI, might be Statoil Hydro (STO), which doesn’t have nearly the reserves but does also have a significant European retail presence and is making a smaller foray into China. Statoil is a global operator, like Lukoil, but is primarily known for their deepwater expertise, developed over decades of exploring the North Sea. The international reach of the two firms is fairly similar, either could be described with a straight face as “aggressively expanding into more than 40 countries.” Lukoil has been teased before by Silk Road Investor (which is from KCI, not Weiss), and by Bob Czeschin, who last Spring called it the “most undervalued oil company in the world. Statoil was teased by the Motley Fool Income Investor folks last year.

So what do you think? Martin Weiss probably gets more flack than any other newsletter publisher over at the Stock Gumshoe Reviews site, thanks to the Depression fearmongering of his Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio promotions (which still might be right eventually, of course, but apparently caused his followers to miss much of this year’s rally, which made them very grumpy) — but will his Chinese gold pick be a winner? Feel like joining the “Weiss Elite?” Let us know with a comment below.

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40 Comments on "“Quadruple-play Gold Stock for 2010”"

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steve
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steve
December 23, 2009 1:01 pm

I already figured out JINFF and bot 1k sh! I’m hoping to beat the crowd and I like the story.

Tim
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Tim
December 23, 2009 1:10 pm

Bought bullion in 2002 and sold most of it during the various upswings. Been trading in and out of miners since then also. There is only one solid analyst in the area worth subscribing to as far as I am concerned and that is J. Doody. I would avoid chinese and mongolian miners like the plague,there are better, safer plays in canada, esp, quebec. imho.

TOR(Victor)
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0
TOR(Victor)
December 23, 2009 1:32 pm

I have owned this stock for about two years. With the latest increase in Gold, I am finally at break even. It has ben touted a fair number of times. I will still hold it and hope for the best.

Robert H.
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Robert H.
December 23, 2009 1:38 pm

I checked out the Weiss Research site and do not find the “Weiss Elite” service offered for $595. I subscribe to Edelson’s Real Wealth Report (not too impressed) and HAVE been getting bombarded by ads from the Uncommon Wisdom division of Weiss Research, to invest in its Inner Circle lifetime membership, but that is NOT so paltry — only a $7,400 one-time fee. Lots of moolah for a Chinese gold stock pick!

Robert Berke
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Robert Berke
December 23, 2009 1:53 pm

2 weeks ago, Lukoil won a development contract with Iraq to develop the W. Querna field, as a jv venture with Statoil, the field estimated at 12 b/b/oil. Luk is senior partner in jv with about 70% of the stake.

@SnoopyJC
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0
December 23, 2009 3:01 pm

JINFF is coming close to all-time-highs at 3.14. It looks like a buy if it can clear this level (and possibly retest it).

Another way to trade this is to buy 1/2 position here, and then add to it on a breakout.
–joe

Shoeless
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Shoeless
December 23, 2009 3:19 pm

If you are interested in a gold letter Tom O’Brian TFNN.com is a big hit. Been following Tom since’90. Has show 4-6PM EST on his site. He is a techie:volumes .fib numbers. retracement based investing.He believes gold retracing to 850.+/-

oldfatfella
Irregular
2
December 11, 2013 1:18 pm

$850 is in the same range that Harry Dent has gold landing at in 2014/1015.

Alan Harris
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Alan Harris
December 11, 2013 1:29 pm

Unless the crash comes……Then you can add a zero. Insurance is always a good idea in retrospect

@SnoopyJC
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December 23, 2009 3:20 pm

LUKOY has a Gartley pattern – target 82 in mid-Feb – http://chart.ly/p8eg32

I just bought some!!
–joe

Jim
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Jim
December 23, 2009 5:02 pm

I’ve been watching the Weiss emails for a long time (all doom and gloom while everything is up 100%). Never bought anything from them until a month ago when they offered a couple of picks for $29. I didn’t buy the stocks or even follow them much after but ever since then I’ve been completely bombarded (email and snail mail) with offers for the lifetime membership.
Now their emails get sent to my junk box and I’m going to request a refund.

Brian Westwood
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Brian Westwood
December 23, 2009 7:08 pm

I disagree, I have made a lot of money with Larry Edelsons picks and Sean Brodericks as well, the Weiss guys are very thorough before the recco a stock. As to Jinshan, the Prez was in Toronto a couple of weeks ago for meetings and I can tell you a lot of fund money has been committed since. I expect it will be a big winner. A recent pick by Broderick was XRA take a look at its performance.

stupid tom
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stupid tom
December 23, 2009 7:48 pm

I am flustered about Jinshan. I was watching it in september,I ‘knew’ it was waiting to take off. I bought it a bit ‘too early'(at 1.34) and watched the shares lose me a few hundred dollars over a month, and I said thats enough and I sold my 8 thousand shares (at 1.30) losing about 800 bucks.
TWO WEEKS LATER….Jinshan blasted off without me. Exactly as I predicted.
Now,I’m hoping to buy at the 2.50 area.

I like Ivanhoe as well. and STO and LUKOY

TIMING TIMING TIMING. IT WILL KILL ME BEFORE TOO LONG.

REALLY STUPID TOM
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REALLY STUPID TOM
December 23, 2009 7:53 pm

and now, whats Worse….Ive been tricked here by Gumshoes sneeky advertising thing….. that little box at the bottom of these forum posts…see it !!!?! it means I’m going to get spammed by investors capital daily until I fill out the unsubscribe thing when they spam me.

Gumshoe,I’m disappointed with you for this.

john sloan
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0
December 23, 2009 8:01 pm
HI Travis – Have a great holiday. Your letters are super. 1 – I am retired Prof of Russian history – been to Russia many times – see my web site – I would not INVEST in anything having to do with Russia. 2 – been to China also – Am constantly looking for more investments there. 3 – Have subscribed to Safe Money for years and think Weiss has been right on – but only underestimating the lengths the USG would go to trying to preserve the ‘welfare state’ by massive subsidy. But Safe money is wrong in touting… Read more »
Myron Martin
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Myron Martin
December 23, 2009 11:38 pm
Have owned Jinshan for several years, took some profits a few times, generally made out well and expect it to blossom soon. Also own Silvercorp and owned Sino gold now bought out by Eldorado which I also own as well as recently buying Ivanhoe. Have subscribed to several Weiss publications over the years and made out well with picks from Edelson, Broderick and I enjoy Uncommon Wisdom. Weiss himself seems super conservative and usually is EARLY in his timing as others have noted. I read him mostly for long term perspective but rarely ACT on his recommendations unless I see… Read more »
Larry Lewis
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Larry Lewis
December 24, 2009 1:16 am

After the long run up with gold and silver, it needs a break and will go down for approx 4 months. It’s that cycle thing. The next 4 months will be the right time to be buying at depressed prices for many. But there are always those special ones that will shine no matter what the market says.

norman adler
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norman adler
December 24, 2009 2:38 am
see what you can do with this tease: The Most Exciting Gold Discovery In The Past 50 Years Dear Reader: I realize I’m pulling you away from your normal letter today. But in all honesty, this matter simply can’t wait. And for a select few of you, what you’re about to read could, quite literally, triple your money in the next two to three weeks. In fact, it’s so juicy that I’m “breaking an unspoken rule of the business.” The moment I’m done writing this urgent letter, I’m calling my broker, too, and ordering him to scoop up as many… Read more »
Alan Harris
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Alan Harris
December 9, 2013 5:30 pm

Give me a beak………GS is for those who have been stung by the crapsters. Peddle your junk elsewhere.

Norm
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Norm
December 24, 2009 3:22 am
As for advisors, Doody is quite good-aims with a rifle, shoots with a cannon. I’ve found value with others also-Matt Bialdali of Stansberry,Doug Casey’s Int’l Speculator.Larry Edelson, Greg McCoach. In fact, it was the latter that turned me onto Jinshan many years ago. Note that it will soon be renamed China Gold International Resources. I think Jinshan is now an excellent speculation, not only for its recent prowess in production, but for what may be a sleeper issue. The fact that it is partly owned by the Chinese Gov’t and that they have put “International” into the name suggests that… Read more »
Alan Harris
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Alan Harris
December 29, 2009 11:40 am
Gold is the barrometer of $ confidence. Recently the $ strengthened a bit, so gold slipped a bit. Ive always considered gold to be a fairly useless substance. Heaven knows how its maintained its ‘value’. The point being that ‘IF’ the fed is seen to have done enough to underpin confidence into the future….gold will gradually head south. But ‘IF’ the feds plan are ever doubted, infinity and beyond! Its all about confidence……so tell me punk, do you feel lucky? But silver !!! Now that’s quite a different metal. It has use and value so will constantly be in demand… Read more »
Jim McLeod
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Jim McLeod
January 1, 2010 9:16 am

The worst thing I did was subscribe to Weiss’s Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio. The best thing I did was not pay attention to the recommendations. I have done much better with Porter Stansberry’s stable of writers. Matt Badiali has provided a half doz. 50-100% winners in the past year. Weiss is late to the party. I made 100 % on JINFF and took my profits.

Wenli
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Wenli
January 7, 2010 12:37 pm

I think Jinshan started to develop a long-term cup with a handle chart formation. If this is the case, what price level would be right to buy them? Anybody who knows?

Fox
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Fox
March 29, 2010 1:17 pm

The statement that "never in his 40 year investment career have I seen a broader range of global profit opportunities converging into one time and place" says it all.
He must have been aslepp at the wheel for 40 years and now seemingly has discovered THE one super mega investment area – which most likely is a pretty crowded trade by now anyway.

Go figure, what a complete bs.

Don't get screwed
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Don't get screwed
March 15, 2011 10:10 pm
I got done by this Weiss Elite and paid the $500, luckily I can afford these mistakes but it should be called Weiss Bullshit. But what I hate is the lost opportunity to make 1 million easily. I was ready to buy Bofa at the bottom but with these idiot I didn't, it was 2.90. Everything was supposed to collapse. But these idiots don't see the big picture, the same goes with gold bugs, Countries owning tons of US dollars won't let is collapse or they loose too much, This will deflate over 10 to 15 years. After that be… Read more »
Mick
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Mick
November 18, 2013 1:12 pm

Two undervalued low cost miners in production: IAM Gold and LSG

Wilfred Taylor
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Wilfred Taylor
November 18, 2013 1:45 pm

Travis. Do you know anything about the 770 account touted by the Palm Beach letter?

Thanks
Wilfred

waltmalley
Irregular
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waltmalley
November 18, 2013 2:17 pm

His letter talks the best stocks of 2010. I could pick the best stocks in 2010, and be a millionaire!

Marty Peck
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Marty Peck
November 18, 2013 4:29 pm

MEI just bounced off its 50-day EMA even though volume wasn’t particularly strong. Also its MACD is just crossing over the 9 day EMA. A quick look at the recent past shows the MACD crosses to be a good buy or sell indicator.

Mark P
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Mark P
November 19, 2013 1:23 pm

Anyone hearing anything about ” the death of cash” from Oxford Comminunique.

francois
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francois
December 9, 2013 11:13 am

The total volume of gold extracted by mankind would fit into an Olympic swimming pool. Lots of noise for not much at all.
What about diamonds? I keep reading that De Beers is getting less secretive and go for some kind of standardization. Besides that, there is apparently an undersupply.
Any idea for 2014? I own a couple of Canadian stocks, and make money from ups and downs, not the 300% return I was expecting when I bought them last year.

Alan Harris
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Alan Harris
December 9, 2013 5:38 pm

ARGHHHHH! Once bitten, Weiss shy…… forever.’ Lost a million $ portfolio’ more like.
Little ol’ man telling you homilies about his little ol’ man. Con artist. I wouldn’t trust ANYTHING this guy promotes…..Id rather short it !!
GRRRRRH!!!!

Alan Harris
Guest
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Alan Harris
December 9, 2013 6:01 pm

WEISS………………..ARGGGGGGHHHHH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Travis, please do not pollute GS with that name again.
Weiss this bloke still allowed to peddle his nonsense?
Ill give you better recco’s for for 559 cents…….in fact have this one on me…….. close your eyes; stick a pin in the stock list and cross your fingers.
Its NOT Weiss to follow this guy. If you already own this stock…..SELLLLLLLLLLL !

Myron Martin
Author
197
December 10, 2013 9:53 am
Hindsight is such a valuable commodity, humbling at times yes, but interesting to read any comments made 4 years ago. Lots of water under the bridge, but what I said (#14) 4 years ago I can now update by saying I was an early investor in Jinshan, made out very well and sold the bulk of my holdings in China Gold at just over $5.00, of course I now wish I had sold all of it at that time as it has drifted down with a lot of the other precious metals shares. I finally sold my remaining few shares… Read more »
stockcrazy10
Irregular
0
stockcrazy10
December 23, 2009 2:10 pm

Check your email.

You need a special ‘invitation’ to receive the $595 offer. (Mine has this subject line: “Regarding your membership approval …”)

StockGumshoe
Guest
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StockGumshoe
December 23, 2009 8:19 pm

Sorry friend — you mean the things below this comment box where you can sign up for assorted offers? It’s actually not a big boon to me, either, so I was thinking of turning it off, I’ll look at it again.

John Budd
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John Budd
December 24, 2009 4:16 am
Maybe Lukoil is undervalued because of its criminal background. A report from Madrid: “With barely any media attention and after years of intense work by the security forces, by National High Court examining judge Fernando Andreu and by the anticorruption prosecutor’s office, important bosses of the Russian mafia are in the dock for the first time in Spain. Zakhar Kalashov, the Georgian mafia’s number one, undoubtedly one of the most powerful bosses of the former Soviet Union and identified by Swiss police reports as one of the main owners of Lukoil, the [Russian] oil company which a few months ago… Read more »
Gravity Switch
Admin
11
December 26, 2009 12:43 pm
Randy
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Randy
December 27, 2009 3:34 pm

You got it right on the nose, it is Explor resources on the TSX, West Timmins Mining and lakeshore Resources were the two companies charts shown in the teaser. Explor broke through the $1.00 mark last week and looks like it is headed higher in the coming weeks, they added another drill in mid December. Looks like it could be a good candidate for an in and out trade.

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