What’s a Femtocell — $12 Billion Market by 2012?

Small-Cap Confidential pick from Tom Garrity

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 21, 2009


Today we’ve got a bit of a teaser email from Timothy Lutts over at Cabot, for their Small-Cap Confidential newsletter. It’s got an interesting pitch with this “femtocell” business — he leads in by telling us how frustrated he is with dropped calls on AT&T near his home in Massachusetts thanks to the overtaxed network (which, in turn, is caused by the iPhone that he loves). As an iPhone user myself I can share some of the frustration, though I rarely have trouble down here in DC — but I do lose the signal in my house.

And a femtocell is apparently the solution. It’s a little cell transmitter thingy that apparently uses your broadband connection to connect to the phone network, instead of relying on a weak cellular signal in the bowels of your McMansion. I have no idea how or if it works, but they’re testing them in a few markets and Lutts tells us that he’s got a company that’s primed to do well in this market, even though the actual product isn’t yet a measurable market force.

Here’s how he teases it:

“My recommendation is an attempted home-run swing with an unknown little player in the femtocell market, a company whose revenues were just $4.9 million in the second quarter … mainly from non-femtocell electronics.

“The company, located here in Massachusetts, has been working with Alcatel-Lucent, Motorola, Hitachi, Nokia Siemens, Thompson Electronics and Pirelli … and most of all, Nortel. But Nortel filed for bankruptcy back in January, which not only slowed business down but also made the stock pretty cheap. Since then, Nortel’s relevant intellectual assets have been acquired by Ericsson (for $1.13 billion), and I have little doubt that Ericsson will be a big player in the femtocell market using this company’s technology.

“In the meantime, the company has been recently buying its stock back, a clear indication of how cheap management thinks it is. (It’s currently
trading around 7.) Another fan of the stock is Tom Garrity, editor of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential, who recommended the stock back in July, when
it was trading at 6.”

OK, so that’s a little slice of clue heaven — but there’s more, he excerpts part of Garrity’s recommendation letter to get us a wee bit more tantalized:

“The average operator’s core traffic, measured in terabytes, is up some 35 times in the past year. Data is flooding the network and carriers are struggling to stay afloat. [Company X] is here to teach them how to swim.

“[Company X’s] established relationships with the biggest players in the telecom industry have us imagining a day when its superior technology is
not only dominant, but ubiquitous. In other words, we think this company is setting a new industry standard. [Company X’s] wireless technologies
and its network management software are second to none. Investors have an opportunity here to get in at the beginning of a period of industry-transforming growth of a kind that’s not seen every day.”

So who is this little “home run swing?” Thinkolator sez it must be …

Airvana (AIRV)

As Lutts notes, it is headquartered not that far from his home turf in MA (they’re in Chelmsford, Cabot is in Salem), and this is a company that, although they work on a broad variety of technologies in the mobile broadband area, seems to be pretty focused on the potential of femtocell technology. If you’re curious about the technology and what it means, they give a nice pitch for it on their website here. And in order to draw more attention to the need for their products, they recently released a study that claims smartphones have eight times the network impact of regular cellphones — as probably most facebook-checking, app-downloading, web-surfing iPhone users would attest.

Airvana is profitable, but clearly priced for growth — they’re expected to close out the year with 27 cents in earnings this year, and analysts guess that they’ll earn about 40 cents a share next year, so the forward PE is right around 18 (the shares are still at almost exactly $7, and they were at $6 in July, as teased). Those numbers are from the analyst projections published by Yahoo Finance, Morningstar uses somewhat more optimistic ones and puts the forward PE ratio at about 14. The business is extremely seasonal, I assume because their customers do their buying at the end of the year — it appears that they lose money in every other quarter of the year and make it up with much higher sales in the fourth quarter, so over the last twelve months they’ve been, in total, unprofitable but apparently a big enough boost is expected this quarter to bring them to annual profitability.

So … I know that Airvana does work with all those partners that Lutts mentions in the teaser, that they are hoping to play a significant role in the femtocell market as well as in other mobile broadband technologies, and that they are on the edge of profitability and growing, though analysts have, over the last several months, brought estimates down for next year.

I don’t know if they’ll really be a great “home run swing” investment, but with decent growth forecast and a fairly reasonable forward PE for a small tech company in a growing sector (market cap about $400 million), I’ll confess that I’m thinking now about taking a closer look for my own account … and about maybe lining up to get one of those femtocell thingamajigs. The flip side, of course, is that in the telecom equipment sector things tend to get extremely competitive, and I have no idea as of yet how many femtocell players there are or if Airvana has any sustainable competitive advantage — if you’re a fan or foe of AIRV, feel free to let us know what you think with a comment below.

And we do not currently have any reviews on file for Cabot’s Small Cap Confidential newsletter, so click here if you’ve subscribed and would like to share your opinion — or you can see the reviews of other Cabot offerings here, they’ve got a couple letters that are pretty well-reviewed right now.

Related Gumshoe Articles

Leave a Reply

11 Comments on "What’s a Femtocell — $12 Billion Market by 2012?"

avatar

Dennis
Guest
0
Dennis
October 21, 2009 4:15 pm
Don’t know much about this subject, but here’s an article that ran in April 2008 that names other companies engaged in this technology. Nokia Siemens Seeking Tawainese FemtoCell Production Nokia Siemens Networks is reported to be in talks with several Taiwan based manufacturers over plans for the joint production of femtocell base stations. The company is trying to drive the price down from the current average of US$250 per unit to around US$100, which would make it a lot easier for operators to start offering them as consumer products for Fixed-Mobile services in the home. The Taiwan based DigiTimes, citing… Read more »
Ron Ames
Guest
0
Ron Ames
October 21, 2009 4:18 pm

I get the daily notes from cabot as i used to be asubscriber to theiromnthly best pick. Read yesterdays letter and did the search. I came up with 3 possibilities 1-Airvana, 2-Starent Networks and 3- Acme Packet. I homed in on Airvana too but are keeping the other two as compitition.

Love your “thinkolater”

Ron A

Min
Guest
0
Min
October 21, 2009 5:55 pm
See below a recent article about Femtocell. I found this on dialaphone.co.uk which has been covering Femtocell techonology for awhile now. Demand for 3G Femtocells Increasing but Market Supply Remains Low Post by Kathryn Posted September 15th, 2009 by Kathryn in Research, Mobile Technology, Industry News Femtocell TechnologyAt around this time last year we published an article about how femtocell technology was finally moving forward. Although there has been some progress in the development of this mobile technology since that time, most companies are still drawing out the process of femtocell trials rather than making this technology available to the… Read more »
Robert Gifford
Guest
0
October 21, 2009 6:05 pm

They work something like a small
cell tower antenna, only they pick
up the signal from the cell tower and feed it to your home.

Dick Tater
Guest
0
Dick Tater
October 21, 2009 10:27 pm

The femtocell stock is definitely AIRV. I subscribe to the Cabot newsletter that’s recommending this company (Small Cap Confidential). It’s a good newsletter; pretty down-to-earth in it’s writing style, easy to read and understand, with clear direction as to what to buy and when. Kinda pricey though.

M
Guest
0
M
October 22, 2009 12:14 pm

I know an engineer who is doing contract work for Verizon Wireless and he is working on femtocell integration. He said they have a lot of people working on it.

John P. Harris
Guest
0
October 25, 2009 8:28 pm
FemtoCells have the ability to offload the wireless networks traffic load. However the way they do so is to utilize the landline carrier’s IP networks. Ultimately this is not sustainable since they are not paying for this additional use they are causing. This may be addressed in part by the FCC’s examination of broadband policies and potential changes to universal service. For now the FCC has mandated (through their ruling that VOIP is not voice) what is essentially an illegal taking and created an artificial advantage for the likes of Vonage. Unless the networks are “nationalized” this will have to… Read more »
SAL
Guest
0
SAL
October 29, 2009 8:25 am

Hey Dick Tater, I’m thinking about subscribing to that newsletter. How long have you subscribed and has it been worth the money? Thx

PatrickS
Guest
0
December 10, 2010 1:28 pm

This is a great overview of femtocells. For those interested in a more technical look at what a femtocell actually is, see this discussion on Femtocell technology

AlterIn
Guest
0
AlterIn
December 27, 2010 1:08 am

I see no mention of them going private, which may have occurred in early 2010. See for example: http://seekingalpha.com/article/178947-airvana-s-

German
Guest
0
German
October 21, 2009 10:27 pm

CISCO just bought Starent Networks. Somebody seems to believe in Fetmocells

wpDiscuz