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    1. BuzzCreek49
      Jan 19 2010, 01:57:37 pm

      Fabian’s newsletter is a good read and makes sense. I have taken it for about a year but only recently have begun to apply his recommendations to my portfolio.

      He has remained heavily in cash for 2009 and missed a lot of the large runup. However, he did get about half the runup in parts of his recommendations. His mechanical trade points for ETFs (mostly) are deliberate and he appears to be sensitive to catching trades out or in based on his formula. He may miss some of the trade value by not including fundamentals in his evaluation of trade points but the results do speak to his current mantra to “preserve capital”.

      In the month I have applied his advice, I have had modest gains, maybe less than I would without his approach because of the high cash position, but on the other hand, the appearance of an overbought market at this point suggest the cash and nimble shifting of ETF funds are warranted.

    2. Cat-lover
      Feb 8 2010, 04:45:59 pm

      The publisher’s dad, Dick Fabian was a pioneer in technical analysis for the investing public when he started the Telephone Switch Newletter over 30 years ago. (The odd-sounding name referred to the then-new priviledge that mutual fund investors had of calling on the phone and switching to money-market funds for safety in a down-market.) This is the “next generation” of that letter, with an updated name. The great technically-driven investment advice hasn’t changed, though. The senior Mr. Fabian became famous for his iron-willed disipline of selling when his mutual fund composite price fell beneath it’s 39 week simple moving average. He became rich and famous when his newsletter saved it’s readers in the crash of 1987 by going to cash before the crash. Dick’s son Doug Fabian continues the family tradition by using 50 and 200 day moving averages to give very specific investment advice based on technical action of the market. He does not usually go 100 percent invested on a buy signal. This is a fairly conservative market-timing newsletter that goes either long or cash (no shorting.) Doug Fabian gives great financial advice, but he is also a very cool guy-an ex-surfer and rock band member from Southern California. This is a great newsletter as it will protect you from bear markets by going to cash.

    3. shofatrat
      Dec 4 2010, 03:30:27 pm

      I have been a long-term subscriber to this market-timing service, off and mostly on, for over 25 years. Fabian’s system used to make some pretty steady money, particularly in the 80s and 90s. In recent years I feel the greatest benefit is capital preservation. It is a great defensive service for your serious money, and it did indeed get me out of the market before the crashes in ’87 and ’08. But, profits have been pretty slim for the last 10 years or so. It’s just hard to make much money with the newsletter these days. You spend a lot of time in cash. He does have a 401k section which is helpful but limited, since all of his main picks involve ETFs, for which one must trade with a broker and are not generally available for 401ks. I am a long-term fan of this service, and always enjoy Doug’s comments. But, I feel it may be time for me to move on. Still, if you want to sleep at nights, and/or are fairly new to investing for long-term retirement goals, this is one service to seriously consider.

    4. ML
      Jan 10 2011, 01:27:06 am

      I have subscribed to Doug Fabian for slightly over 2 years – his track record in 2009 and 2010 was really disappointing. Given that the S&P index rose by double-digits in both years, Doug Fabian’s negative returns were particularly stinging. I did not think I should pay a service advising me to stay largely in cash, or enter positions with such little conviction that many of the positions are stopped out at a loss (incurring transaction costs on top). If the right thing to do in investing is “be fearful while others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”, then Doug Fabian’s advice is often “sell at a loss when others are fearful and buy towards the top when everyone has already joined in the party”. His ultra conservative approach may suit those who already have acquired their millions and simply want to avoid losing money, but is not very helpful if you want to grow your wealth. However, I have to say he has a pretty good macro-view, and his commentaries usually make sense. I do not plan to re-subscribe: ironically, I am planning to follow his advice – stop my losses and find someone else who is a better financial advisor.

    5. JohnQ
      Sep 9 2011, 07:57:49 am

      I started with Telephone Switch back in the early 90’s. It was a market timing newsletter that essentially told you when to buy and sell 3 different things – precious metals, US stock and international stock – mutual funds. This service was amazingly accurate.

      Today Successful Investing tells you when to buy and sell a few ETF’s. The son has really dropped the ball. He pimps his ETF trader which is expensive and spends very little time on his Successful Investing followers. I believe he saves his best info for his ETF traders (expensive service). I recently got an ad for the solar investment that you spray on your window included with the Fabian newsletter. Gumshoe told me all I needed to know about that and the ad told me the son is not the father.

      Successful Investing allowed me to make over 30% in my pension plan during the 2008 correction. The son did not tell me to short the economy, he told me to go to cash. His arguments were so compelling however that we had a correction coming that I put 50% of my pension plan into QID in Feb 08 and was out by Nov 08 with a nice profit.

      Its not what it used to be. The son does not take care of his Successful Investing followers like the dad did. I’m not sure I would tell anyone to use this newsletter. The last two years we have made pennies while the market has soared back up. The son wants to sell you his expensive ETF TRader and send you high risk ads like the solar screen investment revealed here for what it is – bad investment.

    6. Del Ojo Zafado
      Jun 16 2012, 10:50:55 am

      Consistently bad investing advice on the over all stock markets since his call of Jan ’09 of I would not “go chasing high yields” here. A plethora of +9% then yielding Natural resource stocks and preferreds have soared since then. RDS/B, ACAZF, AES-C , even CHK-D, etc etc, many more like REP-A called at par for huge total returns. Doug completely missed the rally off the under cut low of 10/11! His son I believe who handles e-mail often does not respond or responds with complaints about your remarks about picks you are following or invested in. Doug had ETF holders stopping out on AGQ at ~$42 after which it went to +$200. Recently about 3 years too late he has turned bullish on Gold but says to wait, missing what was widely called at $1550 a technical support level. So if you liked the sentiment and bought ANV as Gold pivoted at $1550 you have a good investment @ $1620. Now he is a lover of bonds but started off the year as the bond bear, predicting higher interest rates. As far as advice Doug is as full of it as he is of himself and puts out a couple videos a week & a Friday wrap up letter. So yea..Doug is a great source to get some perma-bear outlooks from and use as a sounding board. So that is what he is worth. Worth listening to but being very cautious of following what are for the most part weak themed ideas where he occasionally has a good vibe. i.e. Lately Doug claims some odor out of DVY, which underperformed against it’s dividend index but, there are other dividend CEFs and ETFs that out performed the smaller up tick in DVY, before it was rated sell. . Doug’s ideas on stop loss and avoiding big hits are mostly well advised. He is too small an operator to run an individual bond portfolio for his private clients who he is always trying to drum up after being victimized by predators who are not RIAs. So Doug uses Bond ETFs which I think in the era of ZIRP ?Everlasting? generally have too high an expense ratio when then calculated against what Doug would charge you as a private client. Doug is always offering to review reader’s, listener’s, and subscribers personal portfolios. That is an offer that I have found is not genuine. Maybe Doug Fabian might be a good guy to listen to if you do not want to lose money, but his track record in the post 2008-09 crash has been not making money as he continues to brag about the near ancient history of not having lost his clients and subscribers A LOT of money in that stock market crash. So if you already have a lot of money and have no expectation for it to grow and provide you with some retirement income later in life Doug could work for you. How difficult will it continue to be to outperform the US Ten Year Treasury total returns now that Doug has turned BOND Bull, & still a perma-bear on stocks? A nice move off that shadow of the post ex div date, PPS in SDRL near the 1265 S&P mark. Now that it is up by 6% and the ex date is still two months away maybe we will follow Doug’s advice and sell. So we can buy it back 6% lower before the next ex when Doug never calls the next bottom in stocks? If only Doug had advised buying it low and selling it higher….

    7. oldblueeyes
      Jul 31 2013, 09:51:57 pm

      I have decided finally to opine on the topic of Doug Fabian. Let me say that I agree with my fellow colleagues on this forum ex 1. That person needs to do a bit more research so that he/she can be in better position to make an analysis. This advisor was a complete failure in my view. I can attest to the fact that as a VIP subscriber years before I found myself time after time in losing trades where the percentage was staggering. I also was a subscriber and a client of his from Q4 2007 to Q1 2009 so yes he did keep me out of the horrific bear market but I argue anyone who followed the financial market back then should surely have seen the markets fundamentally and technically breaking down. But it is equally true that many of the so called experts failed to do this so Fabian, in the interest of full disclosure and to be fair, should be noted for this; but, after that as cited by most on here he was a dismal failure. He has no idea, in my view, on how to analyze the capital markets more about that later. Fabian time after time continues to spew forth the aged lines of how much danger there is still present. He can not get off that mantra. I ask you when has there been a time in market history where the markets were devoid of dangers! Answer: none. He is absolutely afraid to push the button (also collaborated from one of my sources who believe me is in the know) and when he does it is often a losing button.

      I am well aware of his “trading system” akin to the one his Dad, Dick Fabian, pioneered some 25 years ago or so. But I say what system! Can anyone tell me what exactly his trading system is today! The son, alas, is not the father! He has tweaked his system, which ever one he attempts to use, so many times to account for the economic environment that he himself apparently has lost his way.

      The following will be some information I gathered from my current advisor (to remain anonymous) on the domestic and world economic conditions. I argue that Fabian has no knowledge on how to interpret the capital markets. You know many pundits none other than the very well respected professor Jeremy Siegel of the Univ. of Pennsylvania’s Wharton school has said that we are probably in a secular bull market as stocks are still very favorable to bonds and he cites many other reasons to support his view. I agree.

      Following is the economic defense of my opinion.
      Start quote
      “Here’s a common chorus from news pundits these days: “Follow the Fed—it’s the only thing driving stocks higher.” We disagree. In our view, declarations of loose monetary policy driving the economy too readily overlook positive economic fundamentals (specifically, data)—the true drivers of economic health. And they’ve been increasingly positive across the globe.
      In the US …
      •The overall employment situation’s improving:
      •May saw more net job creation, and initial jobless claims are largely on a downward trajectory.
      •Plus private payrolls are steadily rising, despite fewer public sector jobs.
      •Retail sales are up, rising in 10 of the last 12 months and +0.6% m/m in May (+4.3% y/y).
      •ISM non-manufacturing continues rising—suggesting service industries and retail remain healthy and contributing to economic expansion. While the ISM Manufacturing fell in May, like retail sales, it’s increased in 10 of the last 12 months. One data point doesn’t make a trend.
      •Housing prices, starts and sales are all rising. So is homebuilder confidence.
      •US Q1 GDP came in at a healthy 2.4% SAAR, and growth is broadly expected to continue.
      •Q1 US corporate earnings are expected to come in strong at 5.0% y/y—and thus far (as of June 14), 66% of US firms have beat earnings expectations. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is a far-from-bubble-like 14.4.
      •While slowing some lately, the US Leading Economic Indicators are still registering growth.
      In developed Foreign Markets …
      •UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in May, and April’s slight contraction was revised up to slight growth.
      •The UK’s much larger Services sector is growing faster still, with May non-manufacturing PMI increasing two full points to 54.9.
      •May UK retail sales grew 3.4% y/y. While many in the media focus on High Street, online sales led the charge—rising 11% y/y.
      •Japanese Q1 GDP grew faster than expected, a short-term positive (though we’d note structural reforms are necessary for Japan’s economy to see sustainable growth).
      •Eurozone total trade rose in April at +0.6% y/y. (We note all isn’t rosy in the eurozone, but it’s by no means the Armageddon widely expected for years now.)
      •Eurozone industrial production rose +0.4% m/m in April.
      •German industrial production (+1.0% y/y) and trade beat expectations in April (+1.9% y/y growth for exports and +2.3% y/y for imports).
      •The Trans-Atlantic free trade agreement between the EU-US is moving forward.
      •Latvia’s poised to join the eurozone in 2014.
      Even in Emerging Markets …
      •Official Chinese PMI unexpectedly rose in May.
      •Brazil’s Q1 GDP grew 1.9% y/y.
      •Rumors of US-China trade talks continue.
      All better explain how global stocks are up thus far in 2013 than central bank policy.
      In fact, in the US, Fed policy has actually been contractionary: A flat yield curve discourages banks from lending, making it more profitable—and less risky—to store excess cash as reserves than to lend to businesses or individuals. Similar situations developing in the UK and Japan further support our view the sooner QE ends, the better. But many fear Fed tapering, believing QE is the only reason the US has grown recently. But, again, central bank policy—though it can have an impact and is important to watch—doesn’t solely drive economies.” End quote
      So whether one subscribes to the Federal Reserve undergoing QE as the primary driver of success or the above evidence (as I do) then clearly there is an excellent case to be made for stocks now and for some time to come. Corrections we will always have, remember. Are we to believe that Mr. Fabian is ignoring all this data or is he not capable of analyzing it properly? Either way it argues against him as someone we should trust to grow our portfolios.
      In conclusion I will leave my investing colleagues a link to the CXO website of which some of you may already be familiar with. In it you will have a compilation of investment articles gathered by Mark Hulbert on this advisors record from 2003-2011.

      Good Night and Good Luck

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