Author/Editor
Brett Eversole
Publisher
Stansberry Research
Description
Monthly newsletter aims to find undervalued, unloved or contrarian investments. Portfolio has about 25 positions and is listed by Stansberry as conservative. Started and formerly run by Steve Sjuggerud.
Overall Rating
Rating: 4.1/5. From 141 votes.
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4.0
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“True Wealth”, written by Steve Sjuggerud, is one of the investment newsletters published by Stansberry & Associates. It takes a systematic approach to investment, starting with Sjuggerud’s combination of three technical indicators that tell you whether you should be in the stock market at all – Sjuggerud’s “1-2-3 Stock Market Model”. One of these indicators is the stock market’s overall P/E ratio – less than 17 is a positive signal (“stocks are cheap”), more than 17 is a negative signal (“stocks are expensive”). The second is whether the S&P 500 index is above its 200-day moving average (“market in an uptrend”, positive) or below (negative). The final indicator used to be whether the short-term interest rate had increased in the last 6 months (“bad for stocks”, a negative sign) or not. With all 3 of these indicators “positives”, Sjuggerud recommended you should be heavily invested in stocks. With 2 out of 3 positive, you should still be in stocks, but not so heavily – you should have some other investments. With only 1 positive you should be out of the stock market, because on the average in the past, stocks go down in price when 2 of these 3 indicators are negative.
The definition of the third indicator changed in September 2008. Instead of interest rates, Sjuggerud now uses a proprietary “sentiment indicator” from http://www.SentimenTrader.com. The indicator is positive if most people are bearish – it is a contrarian indicator.
When the stock market is a bad place to invest based on these indicators, Sjuggerud recommends other investments – rare coins, for example, or exchange-traded real-estate funds.
In general Sjuggerud’s recommendations are good, though he has made some spectacularly bad calls (he recommended ITB when it was at $22, for example, selling after it halved in price). In the early years, True Wealth was profitable for subscribers on the whole. in the last couple of years, though, True Wealth has been a victim of its own success – prices of recommended stocks tend to gap up on the morning after True Wealth comes out. Consequently, there is no way subscribers can get in at a price anywhere near the “reference price” that Sjuggerud uses to measure the performance of his recommendations.
In summary, True Wealth offers a lot of sensible advice, and may be worth its price for a few months for a novice investor just for that (you can cancel any time for a pro-rata refund). And unlike many stock newsletters, it recognises that there are times when you should be completely out of the stock market. But it is too popular for many of its specific recommendations to be useful.
Do you think “Stansberry and Associates” is reputable?
https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2013/04/02/financial-publisher-who-defrauded-public-investors-is-back-with-another-ominous-video
https://www.reviewopedia.com/workathome/stansberryresearch-com-reviews-legit-or-scam/
thanks for those links, have totally put me off Stansberry now!
one of the links has a further link to the court case:
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18090.htm
I recently cancelled this letter also. All of what another reviewer said about the service is true. You cannot get in at the recommended price. If you want to improve your knowledge, it is a big help, but Dr. Sjuggerud seems to have lost his magic touch. As for worst picks, life is too short to dwell on that.
I agree with above commentary. Many bad rec’s from Steve in 2008. It is interesting reading but the picks are not good this past year. I actually considered doing the opposite of what he recommended, but didnt. Should have, would have had big gains.
He recently picked a major winner (PHK), and I am watching for a decent entry on a pull back as I do like this rec. In all fairness, this one has performed so well it may make up for all the losers.
He primarily rec’s stock or ETF buys, also gold coins, uses a 25% stop for most of them.
Overall though, I wont renew as my subscription expires soon.
if anyone keeps picking stocks, eventually you’ll pick a winner, its like roulette, if you select at random each time,
after 1000 turns, you will have 25 successes. If you select red or black at random, then after 1000 turns you will have a bit less than 500 successes. With sweepstake gambling, in the long run you’ll make 0.
but with the stockmarket, because buy prices are higher than sell prices and because of stockbroker commissions,
if you keep selecting at random, maybe 1 in 10 will be a rocket share, but in totality you will continually lose money.
the only way to make money from the stock market in all market conditions is to become a stockbroker or run a share advisory (use a dartboard)
share prices do not correlate with any underlying health of a company, you can buy into the most profitable of companies and lose money simply because some fund had to offload a ton of shares simply because a ton of customers wanted to cash in their money.
in a bull market, you may keep making an overall profit, and in a bear market keep making an overall loss,
the problem is noone at all can foretell when a bull market or bear market will end.
TRUE WEALTH
Monthly, some what conservative recommendations from Dr. Steve Sjuggerud. A Stansberry & Associates publication. I have subscribed for 4 years, with some success, and few losses. A longer term outlook, good explanations, a variety of investments, reminds not to chase a stock. Has been recommending gold, especially gold coins, since 03-04. Did get caught with some financials that dropped. Generally holds to 25% trailing stop. Uses a 3 step Stock Market Model: Are Stocks Cheap? Are Stocks Hated? Is the Stock Market in an Uptrend? Currently puts it at HOLD.
Frequently writes the DAILYWEALTH. Has another newsletter, and Stansberry is often tauting it’s other publications.
I just extended for $99
Research “Stansberry & Associates.”
Bought into U.S. Gold coins (Eagles & Double Eagles)in ’05/’06. The coins’ buying prices have gone up; but costs of selling are high. I’m not sorry I followed his advice. I am really, really glad I didn’t follow his advice to buy Iceland bonds. His NEW recommendations seem to make significant gains between the day he uses as a “Ref. Date” and the day I get to read the report. Not certain if I’ll renew.
Interesting macro points but one big mistake: Iceland. Funds frozen in ISK. How did S.S. write so much about the dangers of leverage in housing and hedge funds while not seeing Iceland as a sovereign run like a leveraged hedge fund set to blow up. Same for Japanese REITs, recommended near their peak, but which may be cheap now.
Subscribed from 2002-2007. Very interesting to read, made some good money on early picks like Rayonier. Unfortunately, he started making too many bad picks, flogging his other services (remember his ‘stock short’ newsletter that bombed?) and pushing illiquid investments like Iceland bonds (which would have killed your portfolio) or rare gold coins.
I subscribed for 3 years a few years ago. I never did follow his recommendations because they always seemed over-simplified, stressing the positive and ignoring the possible downside risks. I stayed away from those Iceland bonds also.
They sounded good at the time, but I was a little suspicious since, if I’m not mistaken, he comes from Iceland and there seemed to be a positive bias because of that. They also seemed too illiquid to me. If you are going to do something like that, Everbank offers a lot of choices and there is more liquidity. Although I think even Everbank had a problem with the Icelandic currency when it crashed. Seems like there is no place to hide right now.
you can always hide with cash!
cash is one of THE safest investments, outdoes many financial advisories, and you dont need to waste time staring at charts that are heading the wrong direction.
I largely agree with others here; the thing that has struck me lately is that with many of the picks over the last 1.5 years, he’s been too early. He recently acknowledged that and is now watching for “uptrends” in securities before buying. It’s to his credit, although with his experience in the industry, and as a self-styled “conservative” investor, one would have expected this to be a consistent part of the analysis.
I also agree that his writiing, while quite interesting and informative, is not rigorous enough in balancing material with info/narrative on chief risks to the pick.
I will continue to subscribe, and have done well with several of his picks (SA, PHK, biotech, NLY) but have lost on ITB, bank and a few other recs.
I subscribed to True Wealth because I liked the effort he put into his work and the way Steve thought.
Knowing full well about the financial crisis and having avoided it pretty much 100%, I still allowed his write up on Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) to convince me to buy 150 sh. In theory his analysis was correct but he forgot that they borrowed using callable debt which killed the company. It opened up one day about 60-70% below the previous day price of course triggering his 25% stop loss.
His gold coin purchases years ago are profitable, but he was really striking out over the year I subscribed – trying to get back into homebuilders, virtual banks (NLY, TMA types), regional banks etc. Thankfully TMA was the only one I bought – my senses and thesis kept me out of his other picks (in part of my practice I deal a lot with real estate so I have a better view there on banks and builders).
I gave this 3 stars for value since for $49 a year, his picks performed about as well as the picks you get from Barrons or any other publication costing the same – so they are of equal ‘value’ to me. They were prompt and courteous when I canceled.
His sister publication, Stansberry research I tried too. Average performance and his best winners seem to be from a few years ago. basically, they subscribe to Marc Faber, Dennis Gartman and a few others and regurgitate – not a bad business model. When they go off on their own, they get into trouble. i will give Stansberry kudos for shorting GM though again, Jimmy Rogers has said “short GM at any price” for years.
There is just no substitute for your own knowledge of an industry inside and out and knowing a macro trend when you see one.
Chris
exactly!
if by circumstance you know more about the topic than the mainstream crowd, you’ll find the Stansberry opinions a bit suspect, that you are one step ahead of them. Basically they are some guys in an office who read through different reports, and do statistical analysis. But if you have done stuff for real eg you dealing with real estate, you will know a lot of stuff over the heads of the bookwork people such as Stansberry and Agora.
Basically you should only dabble with investments where you really understand the idea. I would keep a mile away from anything related to mortgages or finance. The only finance that is worth doing is to lend money for interest eg savings where the underlying loans are NOT for house buying. Its ok if a house is used as a security for a much smaller loan, because even if house prices tank, they would still cover a much smaller loan such as for a car.
The man, Steve Sjuggerud, is a myth to me. He has some outstanding picks and then he totally blows it by focusing on one stock which bombs. The 2006 Stock of the Year to own by Steve was Orleans Homebuilders, which he tauted and set a 50% stop loss against. At the time, the stock was at $6 to $8 per share. It is now at $1.80 and was as low as $1. In 2007, Quest Capital was his Stock of the Year and sold for about $2.40. It now sells for $0.79, although making money and paying a good dividend. Had you owned a lot of shares of these two, you would have taken a bath, as I did. Also, gold coins are not for everyone and, for a while, that is all he focused on. Of late, he seems to be back on track and destined to outdo his sole big winner in the Stansberry contest, Seabridge Gold. I hope he picks several winners in the next six months, I kind of like reading his newsletter and think the man has a good investing mind, albeit too early at times.
I have subscribed to True Wealth for several years. I like much of Dr. Sjugg’s reasoning and analysis. However, as others have pointed out he has had some real flop’s in the last few years, and has jumped back in prematurely, only to get stopped out with big losses. For whatever reasons, I did not take any of those recommendations. In some cases I actually did the opposite of what he did because I was convinced that his indicators were wrong. Seeing as we are in an unprecedented downturn, I would say that the majority of “professional” investors have been fooled by this one. I still find value in what he writes, and think his research is excellent.
This is the biggest piece of junk for the whole year of 2008. He continues so far in 2009. This guy does not have a speck of common sense. On rare occasions he does hit a winner, but it is unusual. Take his picks and you will lose money. Even his boss, P. Stansberry evaluates his performance as mediocre. He is consistent, a consistent loser, so beware of his “advice”. Fortunately, I did not take his picks, but, I did watch them go down.
it does sound like he gives good advice in a bull market, and bad advice in a bear market!
but so can anyone!
so the people who subscibe in a bear market (eg 2008) are dissatisfied with the stock picks, and those who subscribe in a bull market (eg now 2018) are satisfied.
my impression so far is sjuggerud is good at calling highs and lows of precious metals. Can anyone comment on whether he has been right or wrong over the years on these? Because so far I only have his own testimony from his presentations, and maybe he only remembers his successes.
I am relatively new investor, I have tried several of the S&A products. I tried True Wealth for a year and some of the picks were horrendous…TMA, ITB, etc. as other posters have mentioned. As another poster mentioned, does not make any effort to explain the possible risk of any pick, it is all about the positives. Why is he trying to sell me on his picks? I have already bought the newsletter. No concept of risk/reward, and the thinking behind some of his picks is just flawed. Why was he picking a bottom in homebuilders in early 2008? Again, risk-reward!
Stansberry Research puts out some the most over the top marketing pieces I have ever seen. I was introduced to True Wealth by a colleague which is good because had I seen their marketing material first I would have never tried their service. I have been a subscriber for many years now and I really like several of the products they put out with True Wealth being my favorite. The author is extremely bright but an often time is a little early to the party on some of his predictions. I would highly recommend this newsletter and the customer service is great. I have signed for some of their other letters that I didn’t like or didn’t fit my investment style and was promptly refunded after calling to cancel. I don’t care what newsletter you are reading make sure you don’t blindly follow anyone. Read their reccomendations and insight and then do your own research.
S.S. is like MOST newsletter writers — If they were any good they would be making $ IN THE MARKET INSTEAD of flogging their half-baked recomendations to the marks who subscribe. I had a subscription a couple of years ago and quit half way thru. Looks like he hasn’t improved any
I signed up last year for $49 bucks. I can tell you that he has bombed since i was there. The only thing GOOD that i got out of it was Seabridge Gold and the recent write up about the location…..of which another stock SSRI (silver standard resources) has claims. Not only did he try and pick bottoms in housing etc, he went back in stocks at year end, then SOLD EVERYTHING………..two weeks before the bottom. Then 2 weeks later, he says NOW is the time to re-enter. He seems like a educated value picker, but his performance is HORRID since i got there. And i often wonder about his ENTRY prices. We always get updates to buy when the stock has already shot up. He has only one good thing so far. His price. But what good is price if he can’t pick anything good. In my opinion, he is highly over rated.
I’d do just as well throwing darts at a stock chart.
Maybe better?
at the moment (1st nov 2018) there is a bull market in the US and so whatever you buy will probably do well, a rising tide raises all boats. So at this moment in time the dartboard idea is true!
I bought into an intro publication of theirs, and Sjuggerud seems to know how to call precious metals, but when he talks about share picks, SOME of these I am fairly certain he is wrong. But his stock picks will currently work but only because there is a bull market.
Ultimately, trying to make money from shares is unsatisfactory because you have to keep checking the charts, and say you put 20000 on shares and made a profit of 30%, that would be 6000. BUT if instead you spent say 5000 learning an in-demand skill, all that time you would have spent watching charts could have been better spent using your skill and maybe earnt 15000. Basically, speculation is a false economy. You should do proper things with your time, eg learning skills or making things for people, not looking at some worthless financial charts.
shares are ultimately a gamble, and the problem with all gambling is that when you do win money, you then get greedy and throw even more money in the casino, and one day your luck runs out and all the earlier profits vanish.
I’ve been subscribing to True Wealth for a number of years now, at least since 2003. As other reviewers have noted, his “reference price” usually bears no resemblance to the price available to subscribers. I’ve always attributed that to my being late to the party with the spike occurring prior to my getting around to reading the letter. I bought gold early because of him, though: Kruggerrands, a few Eagles, and new gold Buffalos. They’re all up. I also bought a few St Gaudens and a $2.5 Liberty that have risen some, but I’ve been holding them for years. On the other hand, I lost big with Thornburg, ITB, KRE, and a number of his other picks. I still think he has good ideas, though, and it’s up to me to make sure the chart is looking good before I buy and to set and follow an exit point, so I’m continuing to use True Wealth and Oxford Club (another of the Baltimore group’s publications) for ideas. For people thinking of subscribing to any of their publications: be sure to set up an email account just for them because they’ll spam you to death with all their marketing hype.
I was a customer of the incredibly confusing Agora consortium about 5 years ago when I subscribed to the Oxford Club Newsletter. I found the newsletter informative and valuable. I made a ton of money (on a percentage basis) on Intuitive Surgical, buying at $25 and selling (to early) at around $110.
I went to an Agora conference in Vancouver 4 or 5 years ago. I was impressed, although the products (i.e. advice) has a snake oil flavor to it, I believe there are some good ideas under the snake oil.
Approximately 3 months ago I subscribed to True Wealth. Now I have become completely overwhelmed and disgusted by the snake oil. As far as I can tell, I have yet to receive what I payed for. But I do receive 5 or 6 very long emails every day, most with a “click to purchase” button at the bottom. I also receive some political commentary which I disagree with. So rather than receiving a useful product for my money, I am tortured with multiple, long, vague, emails. If I had a few hours every day I might (or might not) be able to extract some useful information, but I don’t have that much time.
These people at Agora/Stansberry & Associates are completely out of touch with real people. So far I have been able to extract one (count ’em, that’s one) stock recommendation from the vast amount of “information” they have sent me. I have spent hours reading. I recommend you stay away.