Seadrill Earnings Tomorrow Morning — Estimates

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, August 27, 2008

We should see earnings from Seadrill after the close of the Oslo market tomorrow morning — should be interesting. I thought that those of you who hold shares might like to see what analysts are saying.

Seadrill has had a couple upgrades recently, and they have a ton of analysts covering the stock (even though it gets little attention in the US, this is a very large company and is one of the most heavily traded stocks in Oslo). Estimates are all over the place, but I do find it interesting that at least one analysts predicts $10 in dividends for next year, which seems quite high — the average is a bit over $3, and I expect to see dividends of at least $4 a share, including special dividends that represent a return of capital. Any specific announcements about dividends beyond a continuation of the current .60/share quarterly payout could easily move the share price.

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On the positive side, the lowest price target is right at the current share price (147 Kroner, about $27.50), and the highest is 216 Kroner, so even if the lowball is right the returns from here should be decent thanks to a dividend that is expected to be at least 10% by next year based on today’s share price (the current dividend would annualize to $2.40 a share, but the company continues to emphasize that they wish to grow the dividend aggressively).

Here’s the article from Reuters with the analyst poll on estimates and price targets — we’ll see tomorrow just how right they are, but this one can be very tough to estimate, since moving a rig’s start date by just a few days or weeks could mean a difference of millions of dollars of income and Seadrill is currently in the middle of a massive commissioning wave, with several rigs due to hit the water very soon and a few more early next year.

If you’d like to listen in on the conference call, which is always a good idea, you can get there via this link at the Seadrill website — it should begin around 5pm Norwegian time on Thursday, which is 11am in New York.

My Seadrill holdings have not changed, it remains the largest holding in my portfolio and the company I’m most confident about over the next few years. No idea whether ...

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