Stock Gumshoe Contest — Win $100 For Your Idea

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 11, 2008

Welcome to the weekend after the worst week I can ever remember seeing in the stock market. I can’t do much to make you feel better about that, but I can give you a chance at $50 or $100 if you’ve got time to share an idea with the rest of us.

Famous investors of yore have shared lots of thought about what to do in these times, and most of them revolve around buying when everyone else is selling. Rothschild suggested that we buy when there’s blood in the streets, Buffett tells us to be greedy when others are fearful.

Well, today I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a pinkish tinge to the sidewalks … and judging from my correspondence, people are as fearful now as they were after September 11, 2001 (for different reasons, of course). Who knows if it’s the bottom, but there certainly aren’t many enthusiastic buyers.

This market crash could hardly have come at a worse time — millions of Baby Boomers are hoping to retire over the next 10 years, and for those who were trying to goose their returns with a bit too much stock exposure those dreams of life on the road in a Winnebago may be pushed back a bit.

But if you’re like me, you can’t help but feel that in all this pain there may lie a bit of opportunity. And we know that in the short term, the market makes lots of mistakes as it rides emotional waves of fear and greed … so where does the opportunity lie?

Heck, maybe all our fear is misplaced and the fact that the Dow turned around late on Friday to move up 1,000 points or so (from intraday lows to intraday highs, at least) means we’re all fine, the last seller has left the building, and we’ll all be rich. No?

Now’s your chance to be the next Rockefeller or Buffett, though your rewards will be quite a bit more limited than theirs. I’m asking you to suggest a stock or other investment that you are tempted to buy right now, whether or not you can bring yourself to actually do so.

And I’ll award $50 each to two submissions — one whose idea sounds most interesting to me or is best presented, and the other to the person who suggests the stock that does best between now and election day. That’s only three weeks, so it’s a crazy time frame, but if I wait much longer I’ll forget to keep track. You can still come back and take some bragging rights if you make a good longer-term call.

And yes, the same person can win both if that’s how it works out. So you might just win a hundred bucks if you’ve got the magic October touch.

One catch: I’ll only reward the money if at least 20 people submit ideas.

The rules:

  1. You can submit only one idea, unless you fool me by using two different email addresses or accounts. Enter your idea in the comment form below.
  2. Submission deadline is Monday morning, before the stock market opens in NY. If you believe you’ll get great insight from the Asian markets on Sunday night, or the premarket Monday morning, feel free to wait until the last minute — 9:30 EST is the deadline Monday morning.
  3. If two of you have the same idea, the first one submitted gets credit.
  4. The Stock Gumshoe short ban is in effect — these have to be long positions in either exchange-traded debt or equity. You can choose an ETF or closed end fund if you like, but not a short or ultrashort ETF, or a short position in anything. And no, there’s no ticker for “coffee can in the backyard,” though I suppose you could pick the GLD ETF if you like.
  5. You can submit just a stock ticker if you want, but if you’d like to explain yourself please keep it fairly brief — no more than a couple paragraphs. You’ll have to explain yourself for a chance at the first $50.

I know that many of you wouldn’t part with your money right now no matter what, even if it was Mother Theresa at the door trying to sell you a bar of gold for a dollar, but I know most of you have at least a little temptation — who thought that GE would be in the teens? Or that Microsoft would trade at a single digit PE and have a dividend yield that’s actually worth looking at? And who knows, is something going to happen this weekend that changes everything?

So … what’s your stock market temptation?


Share your thoughts...

231 Comments on "Stock Gumshoe Contest — Win $100 For Your Idea"

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Todd
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Ship Finance International Limited (SFL) – They own a lot of ships and lease them to different shipping companies for long periods of time. Should give them steady income. And they were spun off from FRO and have a profit sharing deal in place, so if FRO does well, so does SFL. SFL also has a good dividend.

Disclosure: I own SFL

John Cioffi
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FNM. I figure that at just over $1.00 a share (Friday close at $1.08), a dime increase is almost 10%. The graph on this puppy looks like a heart monitor, and maybe it is! $2.16 a share is a 100% increase, and I think it will do that, especially since George and company want to go out on the upswing. Or else, nobody will visit his presidential library.

Nilda Ovalles
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Buy AAPL -It is grabbing market share really quickly and is on top of the list that people would want to buy now that is cheap.

Paul Correlli
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FRE.

Freddie Mac is so low right now it has to look up to see bottom. Can’t go anywhere but up.

Rick Jarvis
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For years attempting to choose a single issue just doesn’t seem to be the smart play. Earning s can be good now, but just watch what happens if management mentions a possible slow down in the future. The averaging of buckets of stocks in the ETFs seem to work much better these days. If the market is going to have positive attitude for a minute, then the Russell ETF (IWP)ISHARE RS MC GR INDX, has good volume so you can get in AND out and the chart has a recent slope that puts the 50% point at 40-ish; almost $10… Read more »
DHS
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…rich companies like IMMR. Immersion will rock when others continue to roll.

Jim C
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SKF. This financial ultrashort shoud continue to climb asmore banks fold.

Diane Savino
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MOO Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF
It’s still like being back in the ’60s with computers. This is an industry that is very much in the beginning of its cycle.

Peter Mac Isaac
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Bigstring Corp us otcbb has found a way to retrieve sent emails, limit views, and prohibit the saving of same and forwarding as well.MSN news yesterday had an article on how unretrievable accidently sent emails can cost millions. These guys have apparently solved the universal problem.

charlie mccraigie
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I sold an investment, in which I had lost confidence, and invested in agriculture: a load of crap from the local dairy, seeds from the local seed company, clear drop cloth from walmart, and some rebar from lowes. Miraculously, I “made” a 60% reduction in my summer food bill, and using the rebar and drop cloth now have a “winter” garden that I suspect will “make” even more. The return on the original investment was, so far, about 400%. I may diversify this winter with some hens if I can sneak them into the subdivision. I even did some foriegn… Read more »
exlogger
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I placed the entire stock listings of NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ on the wall, stood back 15 feet and threw a dart. GMO apparant winner! (AS GOOD A WAY TO PICK STOCKS AS WHAT THE EXPERTS HAVE DONE FOR ME!!) Not yet in production but with the demand for their product Molybdenum, and proven and probable reserves of over 1.5 billion pounds this could be an excellent short and long term investment. Like everything else, the stock has plummeted and is now below $2.00. For those who don’t know, Moly is utilized in steel to produce stainless and high strength… Read more »
Vincent Fertitta
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MO Altria, A no brainer. 7.6% div. Solid international company. Down from 79.

Andy
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PVX, pays a 23%(!!!) return that is only taxes at 15% because its a return of capital. Onlty risk is oil going to $50.

Jerry
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I’m looking at Coke, Wal-Mart, Disney, and Exxon-Mobil. All these companies are world dominating franchises and will be here for a very long time.

Glenn
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C yes Citigroup don’t laugh! that 9% div. will be protected with the “almost free” money from JPMorgan when they settle for breach.

TV Guy
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COS.UN. Canadian Oil Sands

Yah, lots of “talk” about alternative energy…lots of talk about OIL…up/down/sideways….the foundation (like it or lump it is oil) and the heart of that operation for many years to come is “the oil tar sands”.

COS is an energy trust and a combination of the “biggies” like” Suncor, Syncrude and Imperial Oil. For those in the States….get familiar with those names !! Here is Canada they are staples.

Sandi
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My entry is WMT – Walmart
When the going gets rough, WMT is everyone’s best friend!

Ray (
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Ray ("Independentguy")
Running Fox Resources (RFXRF o-t-c or RUN tsx.) Micro-cap Canadian resource co., price down close to 90% off its highs last year, but unlike most of these sort of companies, RUN has solid revenues from gas sales and oilfield services to help fund its exploration & expansion. Recent insider purchases of private placement. Prospective for oil, gas, gold & uranium, & working in environmental remediation. A steal at this price level, and so small that any significant buying interest will cause a skyrocketing price. Note: I own some, and this rec is made with Farley 5’s comments (#24 above) in… Read more »
Lou
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Accuray, Inc (ARAY)
Sitting at low for the year, will report earnings just before election deadline. I think it will be positive and will ignite share price. Solid company, great management and unique product: CyberKnife. Zaps cancer tumors anywhere in the body in outpatient situation.

Elissa Stein
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My top pick is COP, poised to gain if crude goes up, and when it goes down, poised to gain because of its many ancillary businesses. Is cash rich (approximately $12-13 per share is cash) has a position in Lukoil, synthetic fuels and chemicals, and a healthy dividend of $ 1.88. Has been beaten down from the mid’ $90’s to the mid- $40’s. I believe the long term thesis that crude prices will start to rise again, and that emerging markets will grow, despite current economic issues, which are short term. COP is poised to profit, and this is a… Read more »
Foolster
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Don’t go ultra short, go ultra long, the financials UYG – Proshares ultra financials. The banking sector has been oversold. The Fed is going to reinflate the financial sector big time. Why not place your bet with a Fed that is cutting interest rates down to next to nothing. I bought UFG Friday @7.71 per share.

Ron Schoenfeld
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I would buy 4 stocks in different industries:
MOS – FPL – BMY & NCTY and I’d dollar cost average on all four for the next 12 months.

gca
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CDE, Coure de Alenes mining company. I have been watching this company for six months, it has hit bottom this week. I keep waiting for silver’s moment to arrive…it’s getting closer. CDE should be good for 400-500% gains when it happens.

Myron Martin
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THINKER70! No matter what the oil price does, up or down and “opinions” (guesses really) are all over the map, the fact remains that it still has to be transported! DEMAND is not likely to ease by much, particularly in the growing economies in Asia, China and India in particular, and much of that crude is coming from Brazil and Venezuels, (long hauls) so a tanker company with double hulled vessels, still one third family owned with a history of 58 profitable quarters and a share price at half of NAV, a 5% dividend and strong share repurchase program seems… Read more »
Axxell
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Cheez!! $50/100 buxx…Are you trying to bribe us or buy us off?? Ha Ha! Actually, After the awful downturn taken in the last weeks, your offer is kind of refreshing!! Cheers!

hello and I offer ZIXI
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with $13.1 mil in cash ad the indications read favorable at this time.

Zix Corporation provides Internet-based applications in a Software-as-a-Service model to connect, protect, and deliver information, enabling the use of the Internet for applications requiring security in the healthcare, finance, insurance, and government sectors primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Email Encryption and e-Prescribing.

Between now and it’s October 28th earnings release it is my hopes it will be per centages above it’s Friday 10/10/08 close of $1.54.

Please resarching ZIXI if you consider this recommendation in any way.

William Modlin
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I like JPM i.e JP Morgan

Graham Jervis
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Hi Travis, my Idea would be to Sell Puts on great companies and then should more fear enter the market and my puts are exercised i would gladly but the company on the cheap. Well, you said to pick one idea, ok then, i would sell the 12.5 strike price Puts on EPE and pray that they would be exercised, cause EPE is a wide moat company with free cash flow, they just raised there dividends, they are trading like an oil company which makes no sense, and their yield is currently at 10%!!! So, to get free money by… Read more »
John Pruitt
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Petrohawk Energy – HK. Closed Friday @ $9.74, down from an alltime high of $54.49 July 2nd. This is a technical trade. Friday gave a doji candlestick, with stochastic well below 25% and the close one standard deviation below the 20-day MA. Natural gas closed at $6.52. While I realize natural gas inventories grew in the last reporting period, we are going into fall and winter. HK is ideally positioned to rebound from what I think was an overshoot to the downside, probably caused by 401-k and mutual fund selling. A rebound rally should be in the offing.

J C McLamb
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GE Son-in-law a designer for nuclear division. He says word is that the Dems say build only 10 power plants in the next 10 years but GOP says build 40. Election should grow or stay GE Nuclear Div. Other side of GE good buy now but I am novice at this. Waiting, I guess to see which way to go. May buy some anyway. Any help appreciated.

gazza
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an etf tracking the top 50 china stocks,

Bob Finch
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I have collapsed my RRIF or whats left of it. Holding cash to invest by Nov/08 in a Canadian IGW REIT Pays monthly 10.5 % increases the NAV value is not listed on any stock market payments are Div.Very little tax. Called League Assets Corp.
http://WWW.league.ca To get Blue Book of Groups ETHICS.
Bob F.

optimism
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TRA i.e. Terra Industries. Trading under $20 with a trailing PE of 4.71, expected to earn $6.80 next year giving the company a forward PE of 2.9, announced a buy back program, recently started paying a dividend, great balance sheet, sitting on $8.19 per share in CASH!!!! All the ducks are in a row.

frank costa
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It can’t get any better than SBR. dividend wise and tax wise.

Mark Bohana
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SRS – is a small dunk, I have been upside down on this ETF for the past 6 months, expecting that Commercial Real estate is going into the toilet. Just sold for minimal % gain. Next week should be consolidating and witin a few weeks once the euphoria, the sugar rush is gone this ETF will take off.

Rayban54
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I’m with Mr. Gumshoe on this. I like GE and will probably buy more, but I will put even more into Cemex. It has been a bumpy ride down to its current P/E of 2.7 I have lost a lot of money along the way, but I believe in its future. Not by Election Day 2008 but maybe by 2010. At some point, financial meltdown or no, they’re going to have to start repairing roads and bridges again. Think of the Works Progress Administration launched by FDR in 1935 to put people to work, most of them building roads, bridges,… Read more »
Maggie
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Well, this retired old widow isn’t scared…..when I saw that a good dividend paying stock , Provident Energy, was headed down to $4.45 , I bought it! I may have been the only one buying yesterday, but I am happy with that.

Dan Goddard
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ETFC = E*Trade Financial, go ahead and laugh, but the shorts could get caught on a pop when things turn around. Lots of them already got out, but at 2 bucks, this is ripe. Besides, half of you use them as your broker I bet.

Scott Johnson
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MGI second only to Western Union and has been hit hard due to derivatives. Transfers to foreign countries had increased since their write-downs, until a hiccup this last month. Price is down better than 95% off its 52 week high. When the market turns, this should start going again. Looking at the trend in income, lost 1B plus in 4q 2007, lost 361M 1q2008, and made 15M 2q2008. I bought 1000 shares.

Scott Johnson
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What is the time frame to determine who had the best pick? Also, I am waiting for funds to finish transfering from an old 401K so that I can buy GE. I have been looking at it for about the last two months. At these prices it is just too good to pass up. If GE were to spin-off its financial sector, it would double in no time. I would rather it hold onto the financial sector and reinvest my dividends at this low price for awhile and double when the financial markets are stronger, which may be awhile.
George
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GLD – yes, it’s already been mentioned (darn, there goes my $50!!), but I think it is the ultimate hedge in this market. I’ve already lost $30K in my 401-K this month – YIKES!! – but at this point my time horizon has also gone out another 5 years… LOL. Gold is down now (I think) because plenty is being sold to deal with redemptions of funds (and/or because it has, relatively speaking, held it’s own), but just try and buy some from any local coin or bullion shop – they’re running out! That being said, I don’t think it… Read more »
thomas
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GUMMY, man maybe you should offer money more often. i’ve got a good idea- how about the government inject us with the 700 billion, that translates into 297,000 for each individual, that’ll jump start the economy. anyway #17 took mine (NCC), so i’ll present you with dejour enterprises DEJ- excellent O&G play. so if you don’t give me the $50 give it to John over at aisle #17. later gumman, thomas baines

Vicky
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ALL
Allstate has been painted with the same brush as AIG, but they have no mortgage exposure. I bought it on Thursday at clearance sale price.

Garland
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NAT

They will continue to transport oil, and they are required to return profits as dividends. (Currently 23.4%) Reinvesting those dividends compounds the fun….and your profit!

Mike Clee
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Re contest. I believe Agrium (manufacturer of fertilizers world-wide will be the best stock to buy between now and US election. It is at a considerable discount at the moment and should rise soon.

Big Bri
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Going with Wells Fargo (WFC) the upside is great in 3-6 months if the Wachovia deal doesn’t yield more surprises than anticipated. They now have more of a presence in the south & northeast as well as a ton of programs & products to offer to existing Wachovia clients. If its good enough for Warren B. Then i am OK with it, plus my son works for WFC & with a lot of positive comments going forward. LUV da site gummy

Steve
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Currently watching GE and Apple. Ge is a great global company and the price has dropped beyond rediculous. Apple, company is gaining ground with computers, ipods, and iphones.

Don Routledge
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Look at ADM. Selling $2 under tangible book. $2 billion in the bank. Everybody has to eat. Been around since 1902.

Jerry G
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JAV Javelin Pharmaceuticals …..The Chart looks good to me !

Bob R
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For contest I would go with Decker Outdoors, “DECK”. I feel that this co. is not only strong, but is positioned well going into the end of the year. People will cut back on many things in this economy but all the teen girls will still get their Uggs for xmas. I own it and was fortunate to pick up more at 80 last week. (2nd pick is MHS also a steal at current price)

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