Catchup, part two: Buys, sells, holds and “I dunno’s”

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | January 28, 2011 11:51 pm


A couple weeks ago I started my annual navel-gazing exercise of looking back at past “idea of the month” stock (and other investment) suggestions — that first look covered the first year or so[1] of these more formalized ideas for the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars, from 2008 to mid-2009, and now we’ll try to catch up. As I noted when I started this tradition, I do not maintain a model portfolio for you or track sell prices — the tracking I do assumes that you buy each stock I profile and hold it forever, which is obviously not what you’d probably do, so I try in occasional commentaries and in annual-ish surveys like today’s to provide updates on my opinion about the stocks I’ve analyzed for you in order to give some additional perspective, and make sure that I don’t give the impression that the dozens of stocks I’ve written about in this space are all still my bestest friends.

Going in chronological order (which is also how the performance tracking spreadsheet is set up), I covered the ideas from Seadrill to StoneMor Partners in our first iteration … which means that next up is …

Torm (TRMD) — Has grown even more contrarian, the basic argument for the shares still applies but it all depends on a recovery in product tanker rates, buy if you think they’re going up and sell if you think they’ll continue to stagnate.

Torm is a touch call at this point — this is a large operator of a dry bulk and product tanker pool, and owner of a large number of product tankers that ship refined petroleum products worldwide. I thought it was a contrarian play on an improving economic picture back in the Summer of 2009, but it has become doubly so now and the shares are substantially lower. I suggested the stock around $10, and it’s now around $7, which I also noted was probably a reasonable stop loss for the risk averse. Interestingly enough, I also said at the time that I’d be surprised if the shares dipped below $6, due to the value of their underlying assets, and the low for the last year has been $5.98. That’s luck, by the way, not prescience. I also suggested that I thought 2010 would see product tanker rates recover, and product tankers are the key to their operation — that didn’t happen. Rates remained weak for most of the year, absent some spikes, and they expect to lose something in the neighborhood of $80 million on the year. They have sold a couple newbuilding dry bulk vessels that are expected to be delivered this quarter (taking a 20% loss on those orders), and they recently sold one product tanker as well, which has helped to ameliorate the losses. Torm will release their projections for the year along with their 2010 annual report in early March, I still think management has made good decisions and is well positioned to do at least as well as the tanker market, but I don’t know how the tanker rates will do this year. My general sentiment is that I think higher oil prices are likely to lead to more floating storage, and that continuing global gasoline demand growth will lead to more refined shipping as refineries are built up in the Middle East (since no one in the “Developed” world wants a refinery in their own neighborhood) — but clearly most kinds of shipping are still in a stage of very high volatility thanks to the large number of newbuildings that are coming through the system and the recovery from the debt crisis, which hit this heavily leveraged sector quite hard. We would clearly have been better off with one of the product tanker MLPs, like Capital Product Partners (CPLP), but at current prices I think Torm offers a better potential contrarian play, still, trading at just 42% of reported book value. That said, I don’t own it personally and am not planning to buy the shares.

New Flyer Industries (NFYIF) — Hold for the income, probably not a big capital gain from here in the near future.

New Flyer is trading at pretty close to multi-year highs right now — and indeed, after I picked this one in August of 2009 it recovered in share price much more quickly than I expected. Orders were higher than I would have guessed coming out of the recession, probably due in part both to their hybrid offerings and to stimulus spending that trickled down to states and municipalities. I am a little concerned about the year to come, since I think there’s a good chance that options will not be exercised for a lot of states and cities that face critical funding problems, but it’s possible that I’m overly concerned (being overly concerned about California’s commitment to clean trucks in the face of budget shortfalls would have had me selling Westport at a bad time, for a somewhat similar corollary). 2009 saw a nice recovery in orders, and 2010 was a bit weaker, particularly later in the year (we haven’t seen the fourth quarter yet), and given their commentary about decreased demand in the industry I don’t expect to see revenue rise in 2011. They are still paying out a reasonable portion of their distributable cash flow and have maintained the distribution at the same historic level for several years now, so I don’t expect that they will have trouble paying the dividend this year — that means a yield at the current price of almost exactly 10% (9.75 cents paid monthly, share price $11.75). I don’t think they’ll raise the distribution, however, and I don’t think we’ll see upside surprises in revenue, so I would be willing to hold these shares for the income but I would be surprised to see them trade above $13 in 2011. I don’t own New Flyer personally.

Akamai (AKAM) — Hold or take profits, wait for bad news to buy

Back in August[2], I suggested that the insider buying and takeover speculation swirling around Akamai was probably a bit overdone, and that though this has been a huge winner for us and it’s hard to sell a momentum stock that’s still climbing, I would be taking a profit or selling call options if I held the shares (I didn’t and don’t own AKAM myself). That was with the stock around $47, it got up as high as about $54 on the cloud computing boomlet but is now back around $47. There has been no more insider buying on any large scale, and the stock is now trading at about 30X next year’s earnings, Akamai is clearly the gold standard in content delivery stocks and the stock has far outperformed competitors like LLNW or LVLT, but even with the shares down 15% or so from recent highs I think they’re priced for serious optimism. Given the history of this space, and the likelihood of missing a quarter at some point given the high leve of optimism, I would be much more comfortable waiting for a further tip to buy in to Akamai again.

If you didn’t sell out between $47-$50, I would continue to keep an eye on the shares and would still think about either selling a call, buying a put, or putting in a pretty tight stop loss to hold your profits if you bought way back when I first profiled the stock around $19. If you’re not an owner, I still think Akamai is a great company with very good management, they’re just not cheap like they were back then and while they are growing, they’re not growing at a nosebleed rate that makes me want to pay 30X earnings for the stock — I’d like to buy AKAM for closer to 20X earnings, a more modest premium to the market, which would put the stock in the mid to low $30s. Might not get there, of course.

Lonrho (LNAFF) — Still a buy for multi-year time horizon, still a possible near-term catalyst

Lonrho and Akamai are two of the more successful ideas that I’ve proposed for the Irregulars, so it was certainly pleasant to have them profiled back-to-back. Lonrho is far more volatile than Akamai, much smaller, and a play on frontier markets, so their strong performance is about all they have in common. I shared a brief update on Lonrho about six months ago[3], noting that they were planning to uplist their shares to either the London Stock Exchange or to Hong Kong. That hasn’t happened, and they had indicated that they wanted to uplist by this Winter, so it’s possible either that the markets aren’t as receptive to them as they had hoped, or they may just have overpromised — I don’t know. I still like the fundamentals, particularly of their growing agriculture processing and export businesses (mostly organized through Rollex) but also of their oil services port (Luba) off Equatorial Guinea and their growing airline (Fly 540). Lonrho’s annual results (their year ends in September) are available here[4] if you’d like a general update, they also recently refinanced some of their debt and their growth ambitions with a successful convertible bond offering so their expansion, particularly in agricultural exports to the US and Europe, seems to be continuing apace. They posted a pretax profit last year, which is a milestone for them, and have completed investment in a number of divisions (including taking full ownership of some divisions that they had held as a 51% owner previously), so they seem to me to be well positioned for growth and what I hope will be sustained earnings power. Lonrho holds a number of other assets that are also doing well but are much smaller (hotels, tech services, prefab buildings), and a couple very speculative divisions (Lonrho Mining and LonZim, which is a collection of Zimbabwean businesses), but the core seems very valuable. Lonrho has done better in the short term than I expected, even outperforming Naspers (which has the “Facebook effect” — they own part of Mail.ru, which is an investor in Facebook, so they are one of the few publicly traded ways to get some facebook exposure, albeit to a limited degree). With sentiment about African investments very susceptible to commodity prices and China predictions, along with economic growth in general, I expect Lonrho could continue to be very volatile — having the shares cut in half or double from here would not be surprising in 2011, but if Lonrho is able to uplist to Hong Kong while commodity demand remains high I would not be surprised to see an abrupt runup in the shares … which is one reason why I wouldn’t necessarily urge you to wait for a 30% drop to buy. That’s a substantial “if” — I’ve seen no updates from the company on that goal, but if you’re looking out five years I think Lonrho will be a great investment. Lonrho is one of the top several holdings in my personal portfolio.

Markel — Still a buy on low price/book valuation

Markel is a specialty insurance company that often gets analyzed as a “mini Berkshire Hathaway,” a connection they try to emphasize at Markel — and their investment performance, through Tom Gayner, who runs the investment operations, has been stellar over the long term (like most insurance companies they held a lot of bank stocks and debt around the time of the crisis, so they certainly took a hit on paper in 2008 and 2009). Like Berkshire years ago, they have also expanded into non-public investments in recent years, which is not particularly material now but shows their focus on diversifying their portfolio (they’ve mostly bought companies near them in Virginia — most recently a behavioral healthcare management firm, their list of venture investments is here[5]). Markel has taken a big hit with recent natural disasters, and continues to have those big disaster risks like most property and casualty insurers, but they have continued to show pricing discipline and to diversify across business lines to help keep underwriting profitable in most quarters. I continue to assume that Markel will manage underwriting earnings and risk at least reasonably well in the long term, hopefully very well as they have in the past, and that with economic recovery and investment returns turning up they will again trade at a substantial premium to book value at some point in the future. The stock has done well since I profiled it, beating the S&P by a bit but not dramatically, but that has tracked solely the gains in book value so MKL still trades at just about 1.25X book value. That’s more than a lot of insurance companies right now, but I think Markel is better than most of them — I think investors can pay up to 1.4X book for Markel and still do well over multiple years, with an eye to selling the shares if and when they return to a substantial premium valuation over 1.9 or 2X book value. If we have a few years without substantial disaster losses that could happen in the relatively near term, but if there are more large earthquakes, floods, hurricanes that hit Markel and the industry they could certainly take a hit, and I might be wrong that they will return to a premium valuation. Markel’s conference calls are usually worth listening to even if you don’t own shares, and their next earnings release comes out next week (Thursday morning) so the stock could certainly move if the underwriting performance or the book value surprise analysts in either direction — if you’re contemplating opening what you expect to be a long-term position, I usually like to split my purchases and buy half before and half after earnings. I think buying here at roughly $400 is still likely to be a good call, and I continue to personally hold Markel shares as I have for about five years.

Pembina Pipeline — Still a buy for 7% yield

Pembina was a Canadian Trust until last Fall, when like all other Trusts it put through a plan to convert to a corporation. They own pipelines and midstream oil and gas businesses, mostly in Western Canada, including pipelines in the Alberta oil sands. They have said that they expect to be able to pay their current level of dividends at least through 2013, which at 13 cents/month and a $22 share price equates to a yield of almost exactly 7%. That compares favorably with the yields from most good-sized US MLPs, and I expect Pembina to have stronger growth and reinvestment prospects than many MLPs thanks to their focus on Western Canada, where there is substantial infrastructure gearing up to serve the export market to Asia. The shares have done very well since they graced this space, beating the market by more than 10 percentage points while also providing a nice yield — I don’t expect the shares to climb dramatically from here, since they should be anchored by the yield and I don’t expect dividend changes in the near term, but 7% is good income, in Canadian dollars, and they are reinvesting in new businesses so their asset base should grow and give them the opportunity, gradually to increase that payout with inflation. I don’t own Pembina.

AltaGas — Buy for yield, midstream gas company and utility with substantial long-term growth prospects

AltaGas did exactly what they were planning to do last year — they paid a high dividend for the first half of the year, then, in planning for corporate conversion (like Pembina, they were also a trust), they cut the dividend but continued to pay out a sustainable monthly distribution that allowed for reinvestment in the business. They think that growth will pay off, they believe they can double EBITDA over the next five years, which means that buying the stock right now at a reasonable valuation and with a dividend that equates to about 6% should provide steady and stable returns, particularly if you reinvest dividends. AltaGas runs a lot of Canadian gas processing and midstream facilities, so they are subject to gas prices at least to the degree that production slows considerably when prices are low, but its my understanding that they do mostly have customers with pretty low costs. They have enough capital available to invest in growth, and they have proven that they can generate compound earnings growth in the past, so I’m happy with a 6% yield and potential to increase that yield as the company grows. They do also still own a piece of Magma Energy, though that has been a negative of late and it’s not material to their results (I actually feel a little better about Magma now that the shares have been clobbered, may have to look into that one again now that the hype over geothermal has died down). I don’t own AltaGas personally.

Viterra — Still a buy

Viterra is one of the larger grain handling companies in the world, they started out as the Saskatchewan Wheat Pool but have expanded to take an ever larger part of the Canadian grain handling business with their huge silo capacity, and also expanded overseas, particularly through their acquisition of ABB Grain, a stock I held a few years ago. This provides some geographic diversity in two major grain export countries, though Viterra will always be subject to the risks, largely crop and climate-related, of any agribusiness. With the need for more and more food trade as the world demand for grains increases with each new person and each incremental increase in meat consumption, I still think Viterra is well positioned to profit as a middleman and trader, storing grains at lower prices and distributing at higher prices to some degree, and taking a tariff on a growing supply of the world’s wheat. Viterra shares took a hit on integration costs and on regional crop issues for the last year or so (particularly flooding in W. Canada and drought in South Australia — though their Australian crop should be great this year, Viterra is in the South, not in the flooded area of the country), but this year, with interest in food stocks rising again and with a solid quarter released last week, the stock has finally been on the move. Viterra shares are arguably not down in the bargain basement, but it is certainly reasonably priced for the growth and more diverse income streams that I think they now have. The assets are almost irreplaceable, with their strong networks of silos and transportation links to serve both grain handling and distribution and fertilizer sales, and I think we’ll see good, steady growth at Viterra for many years. They are predicting less planted acreage in Western Canada this year due to expected flood conditions, so it may behoove you to wait for a pullback on some sort of bad news since the shares are at two-year highs, but though such a pullback is certainly possible I think the current share price of just under $12, with an estimated forward PE of about 15, is still reasonable. I do not own these shares.

Sharps Compliance (SMED) — Sell. Company in transition, not as much follow-through as expected. Only for the strong of stomach.

When I picked Sharps just under a year ago, it was with the full knowledge that their results were looking good largely because of one-time payments under a big government contract, and that they would need substantial follow-through and more contracts to maintain a solid level of earnings. They haven’t really hit that goal — you would have been substantially better off with the other three companies I mentioned in that “idea of the month” article (Annaly, Hatteras, or Berkshire Hathaway). I noted that with a bouncy stock like this I would be tempted to use a stop loss of 40-50%, and since the shares were at about $7.50 when I profiled them you would have hit that stop by now. SMED has some new products that sound promising, particularly on unused medication disposal, but that’s not nearly as clear a business as sharps disposal, which is their core specialty and in which they seem to have failed to build on their government contract to build any kind of competitive advantage, so they are left with slow growth in their core business that is hit drastically by things like a lower demand for flu shot clinics in pharmacies this year. Although I think there’s some chance for a recovery in SMED, they are almost certainly not going to hit the earnings number that I was expecting for this fiscal year (I was looking for 11 cents, they’re likely to lose money or possibly earn a few cents). I don’t see the follow-through in government contracts to build on what looked like a strong initial success in that area, so since they’ve had a year to try, and some other missteps along the way, probably the prudent choice is to write this off as a mistake, accept the stop loss, and sell if you still hold these shares.

Brazil Fast Food (BOBS) — Earnings growth paces share growth, still a buy.

Brazil Fast Food is a big fast food operator in Brazil, with their own chain (Bob’s) and franchises for Doggis, Pizza Hut, and KFC. The stock is up more than 90%, but earnings have gone up by more than 100% on solid revenue growth, and the outlook continues to be good (particularly with more buildout expected for the World Cup in three years and the Olympics in five years), so I’m still comfortable with BOBS as an investment here. The shares trade for about 11X the 78.5 cents in earnings that they’ve made over the past four quarters, so even if earnings growth is not quite as torrid in 2011 as it was in 2010 that’s an eminently reasonable price to pay. Probably the largest risk is in inflation — as with fast food chains everywhere, if their input costs go up too fast they will have trouble passing all of that cost along to their customers. You can also pencil in whatever you think the risks are to the Brazilian economy, particularly as they hit the middle class and lower middle class (read: unemployment), and to the Brazilian Real in relation to the dollar (not because their costs are in dollars, but because we’ll think of their results in dollars).

Nagacorp (NGCRF) — Still a buy, but also still speculative.

Nacacorp’s primary asset is the Nagaworld casino in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, and an exclusive license to operate casinos within shouting distance of that capital city. I updated my thoughts on them briefly back in August, and the shares have climbed a bit since then but still look like a reasonable speculative buy to me. This is small cap, founder controlled, frontier market investing, so the risks are certainly still there — but the company has proven that they can be nimble in adjusting their strategy when the “big fish” get tempted away to Singapore or Macao, and that their government connections, a key asset, are still strong. They pay out a large portion of earnings as dividends (that’s a nice feature of having a controlling shareholder), and look reasonably priced if you can stomach the volatility. Trailing dividend yield is now in the neighborhood of 5%, PE is in the low double digits — the risk is largely competition from other gambling destinations, so Nagaworld has to be nimble in attracting junkets, tourists and locals, but they’ve so far been just that. I wouldn’t rush out to buy the shares all at once because the ups and downs can be big and you might get a better price with some patience, but I think Nagacorp is still a buy.

Husky Energy (HUSKF) — Still a buy for rising oil prices and Chinese demand, good long-term potential but it won’t shoot out the lights.

Husky is an energy company controlled by a Hong Kong billionaire, and the stock has been relatively placid since I profiled it (actually, the close today is exactly unchanged from then, which means this idea trailed the market by about 15%), along with the much more dramatic China North East Petroleum, last Spring. They have been focused on building up reserves to replace current production, and in preparing for exploitation of the big Liwan offshore gas field in the South China Sea (production expected to be still a few years away). I like their expansion in Canada to replace reserves, and I think their offshore Chinese projects could be dramatic in the future, so although I don’t know of a catalyst to change the valuation anytime in the near future this still strikes me as a good, solid play on Chinese energy demand … if only because their ownership and mainland connections may help them as China focuses on exploiting its own reserves.

China North East Petroleum (NEP) — Buy if you’re a gambler with a strong stomach for accounting problems … if the numbers are accurate now it’s a bargain. Stay away if you’re prone to ulcers.

When I suggested NEP, I didn’t think that the accounting problems they were having were going to turn out to be nearly as massive as they are. The stock remains dirt cheap based on reported earnings and on the estimates of the one analyst who follows them (PE of 4 or 5), even more so now because everyone seems to be feeling the burn of the last revelation that led to their trading halt for so long. They’ve restated their questionable earnings for 2009 and 2010, and are trading normally now, but institutions haven’t exactly embraced the shares yet. If it weren’t for the past accounting problems and the lingering fear that they might not have their act together, I would be all over this stock — they have great margins, a great partner in PetroChina, huge success in drilling in an established field, their own very profitable drilling subsidiary, and they just acquired a new oil field. If you can make yourself comfortable with management and their accounting standards, the numbers look great.

Deer Consumer Products (DEER) — Still a buy, but I no longer own.

This sounds a bit disingenuous as I type it, but I sold my position in DEER a while ago and I still think the stock is a reasonable buy at this price. I sold my DEER shares because I had put a stop loss order on that particular holding after the stock ran up a bit, which is something I very rarely do — and, of course, the stop loss got triggered and I sold my admittedly very small position. DEER is still valued very atractively, has excellent management from what I can tell, and a very low cost engineering-focused manufacturing organization to build small appliances. Their growth will come from consumers in South America and Asia buying soymilk machines, toasters, and blenders, and from Western companies trying to inexpensively leverage their brands into a few extra dollars of revenue (ie, Black and Decker coffee machines or Harley Davidson rice makers — don’t laugh, the first has happened and the second certainly could). Given the low valuation we can forgive the fact that they are only just starting to build their own brands that might give them some competitive advantage in their home market, where there are plenty of outsourcers who can also make a cheap blender — that is my largest current hangup about DEER, as with many Chinese companies: they are the only publicly traded small appliance maker in China, which gives investors some artificial view of a pseudo-monopolistic enterprise, when in reality there are dozens of homegrown and foreign-outsourced factories making the same general kind of product. Still, when you trade for a forward PE of under 10 and have put together the revenue growth record (and projections) that DEER has, you can forgive some uncertainty about competitive positioning. I regret letting my shares get stopped out, though not so strongly that I’ve been focusing on re-buying in: I like the company and still think it’s a buy, but for whatever psychological reasons I have (probably, in part, this is just a hang-up against buying something I’ve already sold — a tacit admission of a mistake) DEER is not in my top several stocks to buy right now.

National Fuel Gas (NFG) — Hold if you believe natural gas will stay around $4 or rise for the foreseeable future, sell if you believe it will fall further and stay lower

National Fuel Gas is a dividend champion, a stock that has raised the dividend for more years than anyone can remember — and that’s a big part of why I liked it. They will probably continue to do that, but the company is no longer as reasonably priced as it was six months ago, and there is now a building expectation for their Marcellus Shale production clearly in the shares. The yield has dropped to about 2% from the nearly 3% that it spat out when I first wrote about them, which is not necessarily bad because it comes as a result of the stock price going up by 40%. NFG remains an interesting amalgam, the dividend is supported by their regulated utility, which I expand to include the Empire Pipeline gas gathering system in the Marcellus in Western PA and NY, and the growth dreams come from their oil and gas production — their exploration and production subsidiary, Seneca, has a fair number of producing assets in California and the Gulf of Mexico which they put enough money into to keep the oil and gas flowing, but the overwhelming focus is on investing in their Marcellus territories. They do have relatively low cost fee-structure land, particularly in Southern NY, so they can apparently make a good profit with $4 natural gas … but I expect that the risk of gas prices dropping is consequential enough to make me think that it’s probably worthwhile to take some profits after a 40%+ rise in the stock over six months — if you buy something as a slow compounder and it moves that fast, it probably behooves you to at least take some of your position off the table, whether that means selling a call option to boost your dividend or setting a stop loss or whatever it is that you’re comfortable doing. If I held the shares at this point (I never bought this one personally), I would probably sell my position if I could get near $70 for it. There’s a lot of optimism about Seneca built in now, and that optimism could disappear pretty fast if natural gas falls to $3 — it takes a lot of years of slowly increasing dividends to generate the $20 a share in capital gains that are available now if you bought in the high $40s.

Cielo (CIOXY) — I think it’s a buy, but there are definite risks and analysts are downgrading them

It’s easy for me to say “buy” about Cielo, the largest credit card payment processor in Brazil — after all, I suggested it at slightly over $9 a share back in August, which wasn’t that long ago, and bought it myself for a little bit less a short time later, and I’m still holding those shares with a paper loss. Still, I continue to believe that the market is overreacting to regulatory reforms of the credit card business in Brazil and word of increased competition. Of course, it’s quite possible that the thousands of people selling these shares are right, and I’m wrong — just because you think the market’s overreacting doesn’t mean those other investors will listen to you. Cielo is suffering, as it was when I suggested it, from fears of an ending duopoly and uncertainty about how the credit card landscape will shake out in the biggest country in South America, and one of the most compelling consumer growth economies in the world — credit is well established in Brazil, but cards still see tepid volume compared to the US use of cashless payments, so there is a secular growth story. At the same time, there are new competitors entering the space — the biggest players are Cielo, part-owned by the second and third largest private banks in Brazil, and Redecard, part-owned by the largest private bank (both also have distribution deals with Caixa, the federal thrift that’s government controlled, but it seems that Cielo may have a better deal — not positive of that). Redecard and Cielo saw this day of increased open competition coming and have been engaged in a damaging price war (both essentially offer processing services and the swipe machines that retailers use, on a fee and/or discount rate basis), and analysts are clearly worried that with more foreign competition coming in the price cutting will become damaging again and margins will erode — if you want to see the side of folks who disagree with me and probably know more than I do, this article from last week sums up the analyst downgrade sentiment[6] pretty nicely, and you can also throw in populist movements to restrain fees charged by credit cards or processors or to otherwise cut into Brazilian consumer debt — not unlike similar moves that politicians have made in this country to rejigger the business a bit, though I don’t think it’s clear how that will come to pass or what impact it will have on Cielo’s bottom line. Cielo has already announced that the fourth quarter earnings will be down due to this competition — I think the most likely scenario is that this will shake out in the coming years with the former monopoly players, Redecard and Cielo, continuing to hold a majority of the business with their large networks of merchants, but they could certainly screw it up and compete themselves out of business. I think it’s a buy because the shares are cheap if they don’t lose too much in earnings to this competition (it’s worth noting that though margins declined in their last quarter, it was a small decline — this next quarter will be more interesting as the “open” business environment will have had more time to settle in and drive more competition), and they still have a large stake in what is expected to be a pretty rapidly growing pie of electronic payments. Clearly, most people disagree with me … and I don’t want to be cavalier about the real risks. I wouldn’t blame you for waiting to see what they say on their next earnings release — the data will come out on February 9, and the conference call will be February 10, details will be on their site at http://www.cielo.com.br/ir/

Phew! The catch-up is complete. As for the rest of the stocks that I’ve covered in this space more recently, my original analysis is fresh enough — I don’t think much has changed in any fundamental way for Dorchester Minerals (DMLP)[7], Ferrovial (FRRVY)[8], Coresite (COR)[9], Northern Property REIT (NPRUF)[10], or this month’s idea Reckitt Benckiser (RBGPF) — all have moved roughly in sympathy with the S&P for the short time since I profiled them, and I still think they are all interesting at these prices. The only one of those that I own personally right now is Dorchester Minerals (you can always see my individual stock holdings and links to any comments on them [11]here).

Endnotes:
  1. that first look covered the first year or so: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=486
  2. Back in August: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=305
  3. brief update on Lonrho about six months ago: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=305
  4. annual results (their year ends in September) are available here: http://www.lonrho.com/News/RNS_Announcements/RnsNews.aspx?id=779&rid=10731691
  5. their list of venture investments is here: http://www.markelcorp.com/Markel%20Companies/Pages/MarkelVentures.aspx
  6. this article from last week sums up the analyst downgrade sentiment: http://www.bnamericas.com/news/banking/redecard-cielo-cut-to-hold-at-db-as-acquirer-competition-gets-almost-irrational
  7. Dorchester Minerals (DMLP): http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=328
  8. Ferrovial (FRRVY): http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=384
  9. Coresite (COR): http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=431
  10. Northern Property REIT (NPRUF): http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?p=459
  11. see my individual stock holdings and links to any comments on them : http://www.stockgumshoe.com/premium/irregulars/?page_id=11

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