by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | November 16, 2011 12:54 pm
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“(unless, of course, you believe that the global economy will hit another mega-shock in the next year or two…)”
Isn’t this the current consensus? Among the news I have been reading recently, several different sources have been forecasting the currently “rally” to end with this year and for the Euro troubles to be the persistent dominant factor driving the markets down for 2012.
With both the US and Europe doing patch-jobs on their debt crises, I wouldn’t bet against there being a mega-shock next year.
I wouldn’t bet against it, either. Nor would I bet on it. I have no particular forecasting skill about the global economy, but I’d agree that it’s likely to be rocky for the next couple years. I’m not willing to let my money sit while that happens and pretend that I can choose the point when it turns around to get re-invested, though, I generally stay almost fully invested almost all the time, and I invest funds that I don’t expect to need for 20 years. My goal, other than with the occasional (usually bad) speculation in possible “big catalyst” stocks, is to pick investments that I think will grow substantially over a multi-year time period, or give me an opportunity to compound my investment through well-managed growth, dividends, or buybacks.