Top Teases of 2012!

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | December 26, 2012 1:01 am

Checking up on the best performing teaser picks of 2012

We spend a fair amount of time picking on the worst teaser picks made by newsletter publishers in their advertisements … particularly around Thanksgiving, when we highlight the Turkey of the Year[1] for a bit of fun (and to help remind folks of how far story stocks can fall, regardless of the smooth words of the copywriters building a case for an investment) … so at the end of the year we like to remind you that yes, sometimes these folks pick some really good investments, too … even in their breathless and over-hyped ads.

Plus, this way you get to have something to read during the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day, when Stock Gumshoe HQ goes into hibernation mode and we recharge our batteries for what is sure to be an interesting 2013.

So what were the highlights of 2012? Here are the ones that caught our attention and performed very well over the past year — this is just counting how they would have done if you had bought them and held on for the rest of the year (in a couple cases other stocks have done far better but have come back down from their highs):

The 3D Printing Mania — The first newsletter to be really aggressive about this in their teaser ads was the Motley Fool Stock Advisor, presumably the Dave Gardner half of the Fool brother duo, back in March[2]. Stratasys (SSYS) and 3D Systems (DDD) are both up more than 100% from there and lead the 2012 Stock Gumshoe Tracking Spreadsheet[3] (all the past year’s spreadsheets are here[4], by the way).

Those two stocks, the leading makers of 3D “printing” machines, have done well for several other newsletters this year, too — the third best teaser pick of the year came from those same companies, when Michael Robinson touted DDD a couple months later to good end[5] (he also picked the far riskier Organovo, which spiked incredibly, over 200% gains in just a month, but gave back all those gains almost immediately), and Nicholas Vardy also eked out a 50% gain in his tease of DDD so far[6] … heck, I even featured them for the Irregulars over the Summer (though the shares are only up 65-70% since then).

Most years also bring a pick that spikes because of a takeover — and this year is no different, Louis Basenese teased Authentec (AUTH) back in July[7] as a “safe penny stock” for WSD Insider at around $4.50, and it was taken over by Apple just a few months later at $8, giving a 77% gain and a virtual tie for fourth place on the spreadsheet.

The pick it tied with? You won’t be surprised to hear that the big gainers are dominated by technology and biotech companies this year — usually the big winners are in those volatile sectors, with a few miners thrown in if it was a good year for the junior explorers. This year the biotech pick in the top ten performers is Alnylam (ALNY), which was teased by the folks at Casey Extraordinary Technology back in May around $10[8], just a couple months before they released positive Phase 1 data that spiked the shares 50% or so in a single day. The other three picks teased in that same ad didn’t do as well, of course, but only one was a substantial loser (Curis), so the average for that teaser ad was pretty strong.

Next? Sixth place goes to a teaser that it seemed like everyone on earth must have seen at least a few times, Greg McCoach’s “Billion Dollar Mountain of Silver” [9]— Tinka Resources (TK in Canada, TKRFF on the pink sheets), an absolutely teensy weensy stock both then and now … though it is now up by more than 60% since we covered the teaser in June so it makes the grade as one of the best performers of the year.

And we’re arbitrarily cutting this off at a 50% gain, so there’s only one more stock that makes the cut as of the time we pulled the numbers — that’s Sandstorm Gold (SAND), which was teased by Matt Badiali as a “Mainz Income” pick in late June[10] when it was dipping a bit, down below $8 (split adjusted) … of course, to be fair he also recommended it back in April at about $9 as a “Secret Gold Society” pick[11], still profitable from that price but not as enticing. This has been a newsletter favorite since mid-2011, so other folks certainly recommended it at lower prices last year, and I personally have written about it probably far too many times as it’s also been one of my largest personal holdings for a couple years, but Badiali’s tease in June was certainly well-timed, before the big run-up to the NY listing.

This is the end of the year, the festive season, and a time of optimism for 2013 (I hope) … so we won’t harp too much on the fact that of about 200 teaser picks we’ve uncovered this year, most of which promised stupendous gains, only eight picks (a few of which are duplicates) are closing out 2012 with at least a 50% gain … and 16 are booking losses of more than 50%.

There is, actually, some hope to be seen in the spreadsheets too — I think this is the first time (I’ve been tracking these since 2007) that as we approached the end of the year the median pick broke even, or close to it … we had about 100 stocks that went up of those teased, and 100 that went down. Typically, that’s been more like 60/40 or 70/30, and not in the good way.

Of course, that’s not particularly scientific or annualized, some of those picks are from January and some are from November (we haven’t added in the last six weeks or so yet, though they’ll be in the spreadsheet before too long as well) … and if you had just bought the S&P 500 a year ago you’d be up about 16% (not counting dividends), but still … maybe these teaser picks are getting a little bit better, particularly if we can all just get smart enough to avoid that handful of picks every year that loses 80 or 90%.

So that’s our note of optimism to close out 2012 … Happy New Year to one and all in Gumshoedom, and we’ll be back to sniff out the teasers, throw some reality on ’em, and hope that we find some winners in 2013!

  1. Turkey of the Year:
  2. first newsletter to be really aggressive about this in their teaser ads was the Motley Fool Stock Advisor, presumably the Dave Gardner half of the Fool brother duo, back in March:
  3. 2012 Stock Gumshoe Tracking Spreadsheet:
  4. past year’s spreadsheets are here:
  5. Michael Robinson touted DDD a couple months later to good end:
  6. Nicholas Vardy also eked out a 50% gain in his tease of DDD so far:
  7. Louis Basenese teased Authentec (AUTH) back in July:
  8. teased by the folks at Casey Extraordinary Technology back in May around $10:
  9. Greg McCoach’s “Billion Dollar Mountain of Silver” :
  10. teased by Matt Badiali as a “Mainz Income” pick in late June:
  11. recommended it back in April at about $9 as a “Secret Gold Society” pick:

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  1. 30
    Cathy Kandravi
    Dec 26 2012, 08:23:25 am

    Travis put this year in the history books and see how many teasers repeat there self. What will be the comeback teaser of the year? Who will ride the teaser letter to the top for the worst price per value stock news tip letter, or are we not allowed to hear a gumshoe projection of who will adjust and put the readers in a dramatic trance to do there pump and dump newsletter. Kind of like the bookie changing the betting line on game day and fading his money on other bookies trying to middle a sports game for the 10% juice. All they need to do is get Monday’s newspaper on Sunday and we would have a champion called the take this team 50% and tout there competitor the other 50% and keep the juice, kind of sounds like stock brokers fee’s and a parley is the option on the over and under premium. What letter will be the best (ROI) in 2013, I suggest just sit back forget about the DRAMA and get a subscription of the Stock Gumshoe and I am not being biased but if a stock is on a trend to do better or worse it always takes more than an hour. There are some informative letters that dig up some %’s that are from the B/F BOOK but we live in the A/C BOOK AND THE WORLD DID NOT END. Happy New Year and keep up the teaser squeezer . I would make a prediction that the people that get your news letter keep getting them verses the pump and dump money back guarantee the others always paint, even if I did not play the markets your info is in a world of it’s own which makes the reporting fun to read . You and your team get high marks for that unless you are a one man show . Keep it up!

  2. Avatar
    Dec 26 2012, 09:37:31 am


  3. Avatar
    john hryma
    Dec 26 2012, 10:53:37 am

    Travis I was looking at Schaefer’s newsletter about LNG. This is a play in Alberta; the companies name was Donnycreek DCK. Schaefer said he put in $160,000.00 but didn’t name DCK. I bought into DCK and I am up 25%. They have a large land mass and recently its neighbour which I remember perpetual energy sold a large acreage. This should propel DCK’s stock further. Travis keep up the good work

  4. 61 |
    Daniel Selby
    Dec 26 2012, 11:50:02 am

    Travis Happy New Year. Irregular membership is well worth it. Its refreshing to actually get your moneys worth from something nowadays.

    • 148 |
      Herbert Ehinger
      Dec 26 2012, 12:55:55 pm

      Thanks Travis for all the good work and the mighty ‘craic’ (an irish word for fun) you and the irregulars have been spreading around so generously. A great New Year to all of You.

  5. Avatar
    Bob DesRochers
    Dec 26 2012, 12:51:42 pm

    Travis, I’m new to the irregulars, but I’ve been following you as a free member for over a year. I see where Lou Basenese has made your top ten for 2012 with his pick of Authentec. I recently received a tease for his Micro Cap Tech Trader. He’ll send you a check for $2650.00 if you subscribe to his letter for $3500.00— what a deal!!! How has this letter fared in the past? Enjoy your between holidays holiday—it’s well deserved. Bob

  6. Avatar
    Henry Tint
    Dec 26 2012, 01:56:53 pm

    Every time a tantalizing teaser comes in, I usually searched it on Gumshoe and there it is. Your service is free gold being given away. I believe other Teaser publishers will charge an arm and a leg for a service like you have been providing the community. Please keep it up. Wishing the Gumshoe family a prosperous new year ahead and may more to come.

  7. Avatar
    T. Walker
    Dec 26 2012, 09:31:08 pm

    I have enjoyed this newsite. using it saves a lot of money and time and cuts to the chase. I hope gumshoe goes on for many years. Thank you.

  8. Avatar
    Godfrey Hui
    Dec 26 2012, 11:00:55 pm

    Thanks Travis for all your good work and Happy New Year to you and other members too! By the way, any chance that you’ll publish Travis Top 2013 Stocks for irregulars ?

  9. Avatar
    Thank's Travis for your great comments
    Dec 27 2012, 11:31:14 am

    Your comments on these News Letters have been very good. I wish I had your knowledge and perception. Keep up the great work for us that follow you. Thanks J.H.

  10. Avatar
    Deborah G Flynn
    Dec 27 2012, 12:04:04 pm

    Just pay Travis some money! he gives us more info and better answers[and he’s quite a comedien too] than any bunch of newletters out there. just get the teaser and he gets the answers! What service! What aguy. I even check to see if my memebership is paid because I don’t want to miss a thing. It’s the cheapest investment you’ll ever make and the best on the planet. deb

  11. 56 |
    Deborah G Flynn
    Dec 27 2012, 12:07:04 pm

    I need to know what Porter Stansberry is teasing with his zero taxes presentation from the Doctor who pays zero and legally hides his money from the IRS>

  12. Avatar
    Bill Dowbiggin
    Dec 27 2012, 05:08:38 pm

    Hi Travis,
    Although recently down a fair bit Africa Oil is up over 100% this year, so am surprised you don’t include it.

    • 11441 |
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Dec 27 2012, 06:34:19 pm

      True, but that teaser first ran well over a year ago so it didn’t make the cut for this year.

  13. Avatar
    James Bergmann
    Dec 29 2012, 01:05:18 pm

    Any comment on “Emerging Market Strategist!’ Hss new offer “How to make a Fortune With Censored Stocks?” I am new to this service and would appreciate either a public or private opinion. Thank you!

  14. Avatar
    Elizabeth Mokrzecki
    Dec 29 2012, 05:29:47 pm

    Travis – I hope that you and the lovely Mrs Gumshoe, and any little gumshoes have a great holiday R&R. Wondering about the teasers lately, one was Louis Basenese teasing for MicroCap Tech Trader; a 2/25 announcement is coming for something new in sound. And we are supposed to keep it a secret. A closed door meeting in Boston, so I thought of Bose in Framingham but they are trading for way over $5/share. Then I thought GN in New Hampshire, but I think that’s wrong too. And Robt Weiss for Wall St Daily is teasing it this same stock (keep it a secret). Do you know what it is?

  15. Avatar
    Captain Dirk
    Dec 31 2012, 01:52:18 pm

    Gummy – any clues about this one???

    Obama’s‘Secret Files’ on America’s Richest 1%… Blown WIDE OPEN!
    Obscure ‘K-Files’ reveal secrets about the financial lives of America’s most powerful moneymen…
    Here’s how a few informed investors have already tapped these files for gains of 1,089%, and how you could join in their next windfall on February 14, 2013.

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