Halfway Through the Year … How are the Teasers Doing?

A quick look at some winners and losers touted in the last six months

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, June 28, 2013

Now that we’re putting June to bed, I thought I’d take just a minute to check on the stocks we’ve revealed over the first half of 2013 and see what’s happening. As you probably know, we track the prices of each of the stocks we uncover from the hyped teaser promotions — almost all of them are expected by their teaser-flinging newsletter pundits to have gains of 50% or more, often much more, so how many deliver on a level to match the hype?

Well, as you probably guessed, not many. This has been a rough year for junior energy and mining stocks, which tend to be a favorite target of a lot of the different newsletter families out there, so everyone has at least a few nasty losers and junior miners populate a lot of the bottom portion of the spreadsheet, but the newsletter teaser picks in general this year have been pretty, well, average if you just go by a quick glance.

Our tracking spreadsheets are not yet very analytical (we’re working on improving them, but it will take a while), all we’re doing is tracking the buy price when we unveil one of these “secret” picks and keeping track of the current live price to show the gain or loss, but right now we’re seeing half the stocks teased this year are up, and half are down. Those are not fair indications, necessarily — we haven’t annualized the numbers, nor have we compared the numbers to a benchmark (the market has been generally up nicely this year, so stocks that were touted earlier in the year are more likely to be near the top of the list).

Surprisingly, it’s been more even-keeled than a typical year so far — there are no 100% gainers (the best so far is about 40%), and there are no 90%+ losers that are on the verge of going under (the worst picks are down about 50%) … it’s early days yet, typically past years have included a few bankruptcies and a few incredible moonshot gains, with usually about half as many winners as losers overall.

What migrated to the top of the list? Well, Manny Backus and his Consensus Picks service teased several stocks in January, and all three of the ones we covered, Callidus (CALD) and Aceto (ACET) and Zixcorp (ZIXI), have handily beaten both the market and most other picks teased earlier in the year (they’re all in the top five as I type). I didn’t know them well then, and don’t know why they’re doing well now, but they were small stocks with reasonable valuations when they were teased — perhaps sometimes that’s enough.

Rounding out the top five are breakout growth pick SodaStream (SODA) from the Oxford Club folks, and the steady eddie Alaris Royalty (AD.TO ALARF) from Chris Mayer, both of which I was tempted to buy but held off on to my detriment. Alaris was the first pick of this year that I covered, I think, so it’s had a nice tailwind from a rising market despite the fact that it took a 10% haircut when all their dividend-driven peers also fell in June (Alaris acts and yields like a REIT or BDC to some degree), but SODA has risen almost 40% in less than two months.

Likewise, the sixth place pick so far has been Sara Nunnally’s the heavily hyped Capstone Turbine (CPST) that has also popped quite recently, with most of the advance coming in May, not long after the teaser campaign started, and being driven by some new supply deals and big orders that gave hope to this story stock that has always had a compelling-sounding pitch but never been able to deliver. Maybe now they’re back on track? Dunno, they’re still tiny and unprofitable, even after that 30%+ advance, but I wish ’em the best.

And the worst performers this year? Any bottom fishing opportunities out there?

Well, other than Natcore Technologies, that overhyped, years from anything “absolute black” solar company, and Graphite One (GPH.V, GPHOF), the latest in a series of silly and overly optimistic pitch targets that tie graphite mines to the promise of the nanomaterial graphene, they’re pretty much all either oil or gold stocks — the gold stocks are predictable, with gold prices falling by 25% or more it’s no surprise that miners and royalty plays that are leveraged to the price of the shiny stuff are falling at least that far, so you’ll see big royalty plays Royal Gold (RGLD) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) on that list alongside junior miners like Centamin Gold (CEE.TO, CELTF) and Eurasian Minerals (EMXX).

It’s actually the oil names that catch my attention down here at the bottom of the list, because they’ve had a pretty steady commodity price (compared to gold, at least) but are still getting clobbered — HRT Participa (HRP.V, HRTPY) is a clear loser so far this year based on exploration results, with the first drill bit offshore Namibia not providing the kind of validation investors were hoping for after an ugly boardroom shakeup (I owned that to speculate on the Namibia results, I sold when they were bad, it has kept falling). They’ve still got two more exploration holes to drill, they probably have two or three weeks before results will come out from the next one (if it takes as long as the first one, it spud in on June 3), so this will probably see a July catalyst move it abruptly one way or another … we’ll see.

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And Tag Oil, which longtime reader Myron Martin mentions in his column for the Irregulars today, has also suffered despite good oil prices — they’re a New Zealand oil producer, teased just six weeks ago by Christian DeHaemer as having big upside thanks to their potential unconventional oil resources … and they’re down 40% already. I didn’t see news that would have made me dramatically revalue the company, though they did update on their exploration drilling plans and announce the completion of their infrastructure improvements right around the time the shares fell. They just reported their annual results today, which were substantially worse than a year ago in may respects (like “profit”), but they do sound optimistic about the next year and they’re in good shape financially, so that’s the one that jumps out to me at the bottom of the list.

Disclosure: I don’t own any of the stocks I’ve mentioned above, and won’t trade any of them for at least three days.


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peter/barnes
Guest
June 28, 2013 3:31 pm

truly a pleasure to read your intel
I see a lot of the hype go thru on my computer every day
All your usual suspects
I am not a big investor
But we are always interested in opportunities for a winner
You provide a terrific service for novices like me
Keep up the diligent and insightful analysis you deliver regularly
Best Peter
Peter W Barnes
Westport Ct 06880

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Frank
Frank
June 28, 2013 3:56 pm

I went over to Capstone last year in San Fernando Valley, CA area where I used to work for an aerospace company to find out how Capstone is doing. I was not so impressed. I even owned some shares in that company and the shares were selling for $1 or so. They have offices in SE Asia, and the marketing department does not seem to respond to any one, and somehow think that they are so good they do not need any customers.
When I came back after a two hr. traffic I decided I do not want to invest in that kind of a company and sold my shares. Of course that was my opinion. The stock has most of the time in the $1 ranges.

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philipwm
Member
philipwm
June 28, 2013 6:32 pm

I am considering investing $3000 in Kirt Christensens “ETF Tipping Point” project, which trades ETF’s. He claims to make 6% per month. I have searched on your site but the answer was “No result”

http://etftippingpoint.com/webinar/webinar-register.php?trackingID1=Email-FinMC-6-2013

Philip

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mystic100
Member
mystic100
July 8, 2013 10:03 am

The 6% a month is a stretch. Frankly, best I could tell it was a pretty convoluted calculation but I bet Travis could explain it more precisely. For your money you’ll get signals on whether he thinks bull or bear on nine indexes, and he sticks to a small number of ETF’s that you can 2x if you want to take the risk. but don’t expect any dialog like you get here or to learn very much, really, that will let you go out and do the system on your own someday. I signed up a year ago it was $900, so I don’t know what your 3K program is for, but I doubt if you’ll be getting a personal touch, if that is what you are looking for. There are better ways to get a trading education, in my opinion.

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edward
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edward
July 10, 2013 2:06 pm
Reply to  mystic100

975is for a 3 month trail period 2975 is for a 3 year special price. you bought in did you make money is his ovolume approach withoptions working for you. i cannot find info on his trading for 2012 and 2013. is it as simple as just buying his 9 etfs and options on them and getting in and out with his advice

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sam
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sam
December 9, 2016 8:56 pm
Reply to  philipwm

Did you subscribe? How was the performance?

dennis
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dennis
June 28, 2013 7:25 pm

I read a teaser about oil in So.Ill. I know their drilling down there . I can’t seem to find info on the companies down there. I’m hoping irregulars have the info. Thanks. If I find any info I’ll let you know. Thanks again.

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asdf
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asdf
October 18, 2014 8:41 pm
Reply to  dennis

They’re.

rkatz0
Member
June 28, 2013 9:18 pm

I have a half position in ZIXI which is currently up 35.14% fyi thanks.

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Pierre
Guest
Pierre
June 29, 2013 1:47 am
Reply to  rkatz0

Well I bought a teaser two yrs ago and still waiting it GDLNF GREENLAND MINERALS
does anyone have an opinion on it? Should I hold it?

Gary Alvarez
Member
June 29, 2013 4:51 am

I live in New Zealand and hear absolutely nothing about Tag Oil. Never mentioned on the business news for anything and doesn’t even get a look on the stock listings. Guess I won’t be spending my money on this company.

Gary A. from south of the Equator

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