Halfway Through the Year … How are the Teasers Doing?

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | June 28, 2013 4:00 pm

A quick look at some winners and losers touted in the last six months

Now that we’re putting June to bed, I thought I’d take just a minute to check on the stocks we’ve revealed over the first half of 2013 and see what’s happening. As you probably know, we track the prices of each of the stocks we uncover from the hyped teaser promotions — almost all of them are expected by their teaser-flinging newsletter pundits to have gains of 50% or more, often much more, so how many deliver on a level to match the hype?

Well, as you probably guessed, not many. This has been a rough year for junior energy and mining stocks, which tend to be a favorite target of a lot of the different newsletter families out there, so everyone has at least a few nasty losers and junior miners populate a lot of the bottom portion of the spreadsheet, but the newsletter teaser picks in general this year have been pretty, well, average if you just go by a quick glance.

Our tracking spreadsheets[1] are not yet very analytical (we’re working on improving them, but it will take a while), all we’re doing is tracking the buy price when we unveil one of these “secret” picks and keeping track of the current live price to show the gain or loss, but right now we’re seeing half the stocks teased this year are up, and half are down. Those are not fair indications, necessarily — we haven’t annualized the numbers, nor have we compared the numbers to a benchmark (the market has been generally up nicely this year, so stocks that were touted earlier in the year are more likely to be near the top of the list).

Surprisingly, it’s been more even-keeled than a typical year so far — there are no 100% gainers (the best so far is about 40%), and there are no 90%+ losers that are on the verge of going under (the worst picks are down about 50%) … it’s early days yet, typically past years have included a few bankruptcies and a few incredible moonshot gains, with usually about half as many winners as losers overall.

What migrated to the top of the list? Well, Manny Backus and his Consensus Picks service teased several stocks in January[2], and all three of the ones we covered, Callidus (CALD) and Aceto (ACET) and Zixcorp (ZIXI), have handily beaten both the market and most other picks teased earlier in the year (they’re all in the top five as I type). I didn’t know them well then, and don’t know why they’re doing well now, but they were small stocks with reasonable valuations when they were teased — perhaps sometimes that’s enough.

Rounding out the top five are breakout growth pick SodaStream (SODA) from the Oxford Club folks[3], and the steady eddie Alaris Royalty (AD.TO ALARF) from Chris Mayer[4], both of which I was tempted to buy but held off on to my detriment. Alaris was the first pick of this year that I covered, I think, so it’s had a nice tailwind from a rising market despite the fact that it took a 10% haircut when all their dividend-driven peers also fell in June (Alaris acts and yields like a REIT or BDC to some degree), but SODA has risen almost 40% in less than two months.

Likewise, the sixth place pick so far has been Sara Nunnally’s the heavily hyped Capstone Turbine (CPST)[5] that has also popped quite recently, with most of the advance coming in May, not long after the teaser campaign started, and being driven by some new supply deals and big orders that gave hope to this story stock that has always had a compelling-sounding pitch but never been able to deliver. Maybe now they’re back on track? Dunno, they’re still tiny and unprofitable, even after that 30%+ advance, but I wish ’em the best.

And the worst performers this year? Any bottom fishing opportunities out there?

Well, other than Natcore Technologies[6], that overhyped, years from anything “absolute black” solar company, and Graphite One (GPH.V, GPHOF), the latest in a series of silly and overly optimistic pitch targets[7] that tie graphite mines to the promise of the nanomaterial graphene, they’re pretty much all either oil or gold stocks — the gold stocks are predictable, with gold prices falling by 25% or more it’s no surprise that miners and royalty plays that are leveraged to the price of the shiny stuff are falling at least that far, so you’ll see big royalty plays Royal Gold (RGLD) and Franco-Nevada (FNV) on that list alongside junior miners like Centamin Gold (CEE.TO, CELTF) and Eurasian Minerals (EMXX).

It’s actually the oil names that catch my attention down here at the bottom of the list, because they’ve had a pretty steady commodity price (compared to gold, at least) but are still getting clobbered — HRT Participa (HRP.V, HRTPY) is a clear loser so far this year based on exploration results, with the first drill bit offshore Namibia not providing the kind of validation investors were hoping for after an ugly boardroom shakeup (I owned that to speculate on the Namibia results, I sold when they were bad, it has kept falling). They’ve still got two more exploration holes to drill, they probably have two or three weeks before results will come out from the next one (if it takes as long as the first one, it spud in on June 3), so this will probably see a July catalyst move it abruptly one way or another … we’ll see.

And Tag Oil, which longtime reader Myron Martin mentions in his column for the Irregulars today[8], has also suffered despite good oil prices — they’re a New Zealand oil producer, teased just six weeks ago by Christian DeHaemer[9] as having big upside thanks to their potential unconventional oil resources … and they’re down 40% already. I didn’t see news that would have made me dramatically revalue the company, though they did update on their exploration drilling plans and announce the completion of their infrastructure improvements[10] right around the time the shares fell. They just reported their annual results today, which were substantially worse than a year ago in may respects (like “profit”), but they do sound optimistic about the next year and they’re in good shape financially, so that’s the one that jumps out to me at the bottom of the list.

Disclosure: I don’t own any of the stocks I’ve mentioned above, and won’t trade any of them for at least three days.


Endnotes:
  1. tracking spreadsheets: http://stockgumshoe.com/tracking/
  2. Manny Backus and his Consensus Picks service teased several stocks in January: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/consensus-picks/top-5-stocks-of-2013-from-consensus-picks/
  3. breakout growth pick SodaStream (SODA) from the Oxford Club folks: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/oxford-club/what-is-americas-next-iconic-brand/
  4. steady eddie Alaris Royalty (AD.TO ALARF) from Chris Mayer: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/mayers-special-situations/chris-mayers-magic-formula-stock-a-business-model-like-no-other/
  5. heavily hyped Capstone Turbine (CPST): http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/macro-trader/burning-money-were-teased-that-prez-obama-loves-this-company-that-turns-natural-gas-flaring-into-cash/
  6. Natcore Technologies: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/alternative-energy-speculator/the-absolute-black-solar-stock-is/
  7. Graphite One (GPH.V, GPHOF), the latest in a series of silly and overly optimistic pitch targets: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/alternative-energy-speculator/what-is-the-sixth-element-fortune-maker-to-buy-before-may-31st/
  8. his column for the Irregulars today: http://stockgumshoe.com/2013/06/microblog-thoughts-from-myron-june/
  9. teased just six weeks ago by Christian DeHaemer: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/crisis-and-opportunity/new-zealands-bakken-sniffing-around-christian-dehaemers-oil-teaser/
  10. update on their exploration drilling plans and announce the completion of their infrastructure improvements: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8734887/Tag-ramps-up-drilling-and-cashflows

Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2013/06/halfway-through-the-year-how-are-the-teasers-doing/


  1. peter/barnes
    Jun 28 2013, 03:31:45 pm

    truly a pleasure to read your intel
    I see a lot of the hype go thru on my computer every day
    All your usual suspects
    I am not a big investor
    But we are always interested in opportunities for a winner
    You provide a terrific service for novices like me
    Keep up the diligent and insightful analysis you deliver regularly
    Best Peter
    Peter W Barnes
    Westport Ct 06880

  2. Frank
    Jun 28 2013, 03:56:41 pm

    I went over to Capstone last year in San Fernando Valley, CA area where I used to work for an aerospace company to find out how Capstone is doing. I was not so impressed. I even owned some shares in that company and the shares were selling for $1 or so. They have offices in SE Asia, and the marketing department does not seem to respond to any one, and somehow think that they are so good they do not need any customers.
    When I came back after a two hr. traffic I decided I do not want to invest in that kind of a company and sold my shares. Of course that was my opinion. The stock has most of the time in the $1 ranges.

      • Craig Carr
        Jul 8 2013, 10:03:57 am

        The 6% a month is a stretch. Frankly, best I could tell it was a pretty convoluted calculation but I bet Travis could explain it more precisely. For your money you’ll get signals on whether he thinks bull or bear on nine indexes, and he sticks to a small number of ETF’s that you can 2x if you want to take the risk. but don’t expect any dialog like you get here or to learn very much, really, that will let you go out and do the system on your own someday. I signed up a year ago it was $900, so I don’t know what your 3K program is for, but I doubt if you’ll be getting a personal touch, if that is what you are looking for. There are better ways to get a trading education, in my opinion.

        • edward
          Jul 10 2013, 02:06:48 pm

          975is for a 3 month trail period 2975 is for a 3 year special price. you bought in did you make money is his ovolume approach withoptions working for you. i cannot find info on his trading for 2012 and 2013. is it as simple as just buying his 9 etfs and options on them and getting in and out with his advice

  3. dennis
    Jun 28 2013, 07:25:21 pm

    I read a teaser about oil in So.Ill. I know their drilling down there . I can’t seem to find info on the companies down there. I’m hoping irregulars have the info. Thanks. If I find any info I’ll let you know. Thanks again.

    • Pierre
      Jun 29 2013, 01:47:48 am

      Well I bought a teaser two yrs ago and still waiting it GDLNF GREENLAND MINERALS
      does anyone have an opinion on it? Should I hold it?

  4. Gary Alvarez
    Jun 29 2013, 04:51:14 am

    I live in New Zealand and hear absolutely nothing about Tag Oil. Never mentioned on the business news for anything and doesn’t even get a look on the stock listings. Guess I won’t be spending my money on this company.

    Gary A. from south of the Equator

  5. earnest thompson
    Jun 29 2013, 10:29:57 am

    Travis,
    In the mental health field we deal with people who need “reality orientation” everyday. These people often have unrealistic goals and tend to get sucked into every gamble and tangential idea and scheme imaginable. I want to thank you for helping give us all a dose of “Reality Orientation” here in the world of big capitalism .

  6. ron hlavinka
    Jul 1 2013, 06:51:19 pm

    I don’t see and haven’t heard any mention of Tesla Motors. I bought them in May for 49, plus some Jan 14 110 options. The stock closed today at about 117, and my option price has almost quadrupled.

    • 8278 |
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Jul 1 2013, 08:44:09 pm

      You’re right, we must have missed getting that one onto the spreadsheet. Thanks for the reminder!

    • rick
      Jul 10 2013, 10:07:49 am

      Yeah, I bought a 35 dollar call for a couple bucks and cashed it out for triple. I shoulda let it execute and held on till 120 bucks or so…especially since I could have used a stop loss and kept it on margin.

  7. dennis
    Jul 8 2013, 08:01:27 pm

    Look-up tag oil & gas. They have a news letter that looks real good. I like & own it. I’m looking for more info before buying more. If what they claim is true,it has to be a great investment. Keep the comments coming. Thanks

  8. 30
    Cathy Kandravi
    Jul 9 2013, 05:57:34 am

    Travis I think but not sure if it was you that told me about IWSY from Wall STREET DAILY and if it was you do you have any idea why the date in AUGUST is the big day for his secret I think he says the 14th of AUG. just curious is there an announcement coming out that day or is that just another hype thing, if that was you that called that tease or not, I see they have been moving is why I asked . Thanks I really enjoy your info and knowledge!

    • 8278 |
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
      Jul 9 2013, 09:51:53 am

      I did write that one up as the solution to Louis Basenese’s teaser about a month ago (http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/microcap-tech-trader/baseneses-secret-san-diego-nfc-security-stock/), but I haven’t looked at them since — often these dates are made up deadlines, it wasn’t clear whether Basenese was expecting a partnership deal to be announced by mid-August (he was speculating that they would have big deals with either Google/Android or Apple) or was just expecting something to happen by the time they have their next quarterly report — they filed their 10Q on August 14 last year.

    • Lisa
      Jul 17 2013, 10:42:42 pm

      Cathy–Hi! Several of us started a group at yahoo.com to discuss IWSY and other picks & teasers that we pick up on from Travis. You and the others here are welcome to join, as its an open forum. We were going on and on for so long on gumshoe’s site, that we thought we were beginning to impose on Travis. http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/iwsy/ Best of luck trading, and many thanks to Travis and his Thinkolator!!

  9. 30
    Cathy Kandravi
    Jul 9 2013, 02:45:56 pm

    Thanks for the follow up, just seemed like d day the more I thought about it. I sold most now, what I have left is on there dime. Thanks for the short term hit, probably go through the roof now . But I will still be up either way now, a little bit of a good thing . Thanks again!.

  10. tleperestockgumshoequestion
    Jul 17 2013, 09:40:17 pm

    Wondering if Travis will be covering my question about the Oxford Club Editor, James Bosley Cook’s recent teaser regarding an old and established but alas unknown natural gas stock that he promises to reveal with a subscription to the Oxford Club.
    As mentioned, I am suspicious because of a past (FAILED) teaser for a Mongolian gold mining operation near the Chinese Border, TRQ in which I got burned by the advice, which never panned out and caused me serious investment losses.
    Was wondering if Travis has ever subjected the matter to his Thinkolator in the past or if he will be addressing it this coming Friday.

    Stock Gumshoe Fan,
    Thomas Lepere

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