written by reader The ABR Indicator Signals Stock Moves With 85% Accuracy

By pereca30001, June 3, 2013

I just received an email from Uncommon Wisdom to watch a teaser video for their Blue Chip Option Alert service. In the video, stock analyst Tony Sagami talks about the ABR Incicator (that is what he calls it…I don’t know if that is it’s real name or not.). He says it is found on the stock sheets of big, safe, trouble free companies. He says it tells ”what % of a company’s revenue is coming from this source and he calls it the ABR indicator. He indicated that the higher it is indicates that a stock is about to make a short term move. He then goes into using options to increase your returns.
Now I was wondering if anyone knows what this indicator is and how effective it really is in signaling moves. I didn’t really want to pay $1,600 a year just to see if it really was a useful tool or not. Any ideas out there.
Thanks ahead of time for any help at all.

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Jeff B
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Jeff B
August 18, 2013 9:30 pm

Larry’s macro economic view of metals is useful, as they are on a general uptrend as a result of monetary policy. The problem I see is that he tries to trade short to medium term moves in metals, and is usually wrong. When he recommends shorting metals, and they go up – you can lose some big bucks. Sean Broderick is their other metals guy, and his track record is similar. In 2010 when gold was about $1300, Larry advised shorting it – and steadfastly told his subscribers every week gold was going to tank – and that he was right. It didn’t, It went up to $1900. Larry said he was wrong when gold hit about $1800, so if you sold your gold and silver shorts then, you would have lost big. Sean, on the other hand was very bullish that whole time. When gold hit it’s high, Sean kept saying buy, it’s going to break $2,000 and keep rocketing upwards. So, I would have lost money with both of them for different reasons.

A few months ago, Sean was sending daily emails for his gold miners service. Gold tanked, and miners tanked, I’m sure his subscribers lost money. At the same time, Larry told people to wait – so he was right, that time. Now Larry thinks gold is going to hit $1,000 before it takes off. Is he right? I personally don’t think so, but what do I know?

If their services made money for their subscribers, then I could accept their bad calls. Yet, this does not seem to be the case.

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Clay
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Clay
August 18, 2013 10:21 pm

I’ll monitor my trades very closely. Check back every month or so and I’ll tell you how I’m doing. Thank you for your input.

Rod Harrell
Member
Rod Harrell
August 26, 2013 8:44 am

The indicator is probably named after the geographic Regionality of its Greatest Revenue Source, ie. “ASIA BACKED REVENUE”, thus; ABR indicator. China’s Stock market woes is probably a result of a Chinese YUAN Strengthening Trend which began upon its float on the Foreign Exchange Market and the controlled widening of the daily trading band, as I’ve said before, a Country’s Currency Index and its Stock Indexes have an opposite correlation, as the Country Currency Index Strengthens, The Country’s Stock Index Declines and Vice Versa, as the Country’s Currency Index Weakens, the Country’s Stock Indexes Appreciate as a general rule of thumb, thus; China’s Stock Market decline can be attributed to not only the Global economic Crisis of 2007, but a Strengthening Currency and a rising inflation rate as well @ http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/china/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-china-2012.aspx,
The indicator should be named “RBR” Regionally Backed Revenue or “CBR” Country Backed Revenue, and would be applicable to all Regions and Countries. The data this indicator provides in theory can be used to compare the revenue source by region or country with economic growth rates by country minus the rate of local inflation would probably be an excellent fundamental indicator, but it should be more localized as in, Country Specific”… The economic growth rate reflects the sustainability of the level of revenue or revenue growth from the specific region or country.

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Rod Harrell
Member
Rod Harrell
August 26, 2013 9:27 am

Another thought on the indicator name, it could be APPLE Based Revenue, but then again maybe that’s another idea that can be explored, maybe even narrow it down to a Product Based Revenue indicator, but that would require SEC Rules to require Public Corps to detail their financial reports, probably won’t ever happen… But if you ever had a Hot Product from any company to follow, an indicator to find the revenues linked to that product would be a plus…

rodmt5harrell
Member
rodmt5harrell
August 26, 2013 9:42 am

http://www.zacks.com/help/about_abr.php
ABOUT ABR RANK IN INDUSTRY
You should always place your money in the best stocks in the best industries. When you understand the value of brokerage research, then you will start that journey by first exploring the Industry Rank by ABR list to find those top industries. Step two leads you here, to the ABR Rank in Industry, where you will find the most attractive stocks in those hot industries.
What is the ABR?
As the name implies the ABR will show you the Average of Brokerage Recommendations on a given stock. The benefit is that you quickly get a snapshot of where Wall Street stands on a stock without having to read a mountain of research reports.
How is the ABR Created for an Individual Stock?
Each brokerage research report carries with it some form of recommendation. The brokerage firms may use different lingo for their rating systems (like saying Outperform instead of Buy), but they can all be properly sorted into our 5 level classification system that is now the industry standard. Each of the 5 classifications has a value associated with it to help compute the ABR. Below we show you an example of a stock with 10 brokerage recommendations and how it adds up into the ABR.
Recommendation Value # of Brokerage Recommendations Combined Value
Strong Buy 1 2 2
Buy 2 3 6
Hold 3 3 9
Sell 4 1 4
Strong Sell 5 1 5
Total 10 26
ABR 2.60
The lower the ABR number, the more favorable Wall Street is on the company. Over the years we have found only modest value in knowing the current ABR for a stock. What is much more powerful is the direction the ABR is moving. Stocks with improving ABRs will outperform the market and visa versa for those with eroding ABR’s.
How do you know these are the best stocks? The top rated stocks on this list have the highest percentage of Buy recommendations from the brokerage firms. This means that the highly respected analysts at these firms feel very strongly about the future prospects of these industries. But also that the stock brokers at these firms will persuade clients that these are the best places to invest. This adds up to a very powerful marketing machine that generally leads to superior investment results.
How to Read the ABR Rank in Industry Table
Here is a snapshot of the ABR Rank in Industry table. Below you will find column by column descriptions of how to interpret this information. Note that you can resort the table by clicking on any of the column headings.
ABR RANK IN INDUSTRY: BLDG-HEAVY CNST
Rank Ascending 1-WeekChange Company Symbol Current ABR Previous ABR Upgrades
1-Week Downgrades
1-Week
1 0 FOSTER WHL FWLT 1.00 1.00 0 0
2 0 LAYNE CHRIS LAYN 1.00 1.00 0 0
3 0 PERINI CORP PCR 1.00 1.00 0 0
4 0 DYCOM INDS DY 1.67 1.67 0 0
5 +4 WASHINGTON WGII 1.67 2.00 1 0
6 -1 CHICAGO BRI CBI 1.88 1.88 0 0
7 -1 JACOBS ENGI JEC 1.89 1.89 0 0
8 -1 MASTEC INC MTZ 2.00 2.00 0 0
9 -1 QUANTA SER PWR 2.00 2.00 0 0
10 -1 GRANITE CO GVA 2.20 2.20 0 0
Rank: Here you will find how the individual stocks rank in the industry based upon the current ABR. If multiple stocks share the same ABR then they will also have the same rank on the page and be displayed in alphabetical order. See above how three firms are tied in 1st place with an ABR of 1.00.
1-Week Change: How much higher or lower is the rank this week versus last. As noted above, the direction of change is usually more predictive of future stock performance than the absolute rank level. You want to be investing in highly ranked stocks showing solid week over week improvement.
Company Name: Self explanatory
Ticker: Click on the ticker to get the current quote and other research information.
Current ABR: Calculated for the stock as noted earlier in this article. Click on the ABR to see the Broker Recommendations research page for the stock.
Previous ABR: Display of the stock’s ABR from 1 week ago to highlight magnitude of ABR change week over week.
Upgrades 1-Week: If the ABR improved it is most likely due to some recommendation upgrades (Ex. Stock is raised from a Hold to Strong Buy). Here you get to see the level of that activity in the past week. Sometimes the ABR improves without an upgrade because a brokerage firm with a poor recommendation drops its coverage and that is removed from the ABR calculation.
Downgrades 1-Week: Same concept as upgrades, but here you see number of recommendations downgraded over the week.
Frequently Asked Question
Q: What is the difference between the Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) and Zacks Rank?
A: Both of these concepts share the same purpose, which is to highlight the stocks most likely to outperform the market. First they differ in how they rank the stocks; ABR versus the Zacks Rank. Both methods have value and should lead to better stock selection. However, it is fair to say that the Zacks Rank has a superior history of performance. We think it is prudent for investors to discover both rankings for a stock to improve their odds of success.
Learn more about Zacks Rank

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rodmt5harrell
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rodmt5harrell
August 27, 2013 8:31 am

Perhaps somebody should work on a fundamental indicator named “EPSPT”, Electronic Payment Systems Product Tracker, OR “VMCPST”, Visa Mastercard Product Sales Tracker. The data already exists without divulging privacy of the purchaser, I’m only interested in the numbers of specific products sold in real time, and that data can be traced down to all components of a product and each component’s manufacturers and sales, distribution related companies and can be used for better projections of quarterly & annual manufacturer & retailer profits by industry, by company, by products, and thereby produce better data for better share price projected forecasts.

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