The ABR Indicator Signals Stock Moves With 85% AccuracyI just received an email from Uncommon Wisdom to watch a teaser video for their Blue Chip Option Alert service. In the video, stock analyst Tony Sagami talks about the ABR Incicator (that is what he calls it…I don’t know if that is it’s real name or not.). He says it is found on the stock sheets of big, safe, trouble free companies. He says it tells ”what % of a company’s revenue is coming from this source and he calls it the ABR indicator. He indicated that the higher it is indicates that a stock is about to make a short term move. He then goes into using options to increase your returns.
Now I was wondering if anyone knows what this indicator is and how effective it really is in signaling moves. I didn’t really want to pay $1,600 a year just to see if it really was a useful tool or not. Any ideas out there.
Thanks ahead of time for any help at all.
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I wonder about Sagami’s “ABR Indicator” also. He is a member of the usually reliable Weiss Group. Thanks
“…usually reliable”, and “weiss group” are two phrases that I thought I would never see in a sentence together.
Their recommendations based on impending financial doom/cataclysm in from 2008-2012 were injurious to your financial health!
Which services did you subscribe to? The Uncommon Wisdom products have done very well… I don’t see a problem.
Agree ,their metal predictions are spooky good.
Since no one has actually answered the original question, the “ABR” Sagami refers to is his own term for something like “Asian Business Reference,” or something like that. I don’t remember the exact term, and don’t want to have to sit through another long video to find out. Basically, the “indicator” refers to the percentage of business a company does with Asia. You can find this out by reading its annual report. Guess what? If a company did a lot of business with China in the last 10 years, it probably did very well. That’s all the “indicator” tells you. Now that China has tanked, I notice he’s not touting the ABR indicator anymore. Now he’s advertising his Blue Chip Options subscription instead.
Robert – was that sarcasm we heard with your Weiss comment? That group has missed this market since 2009, but has ridden gold and silver down the past year — reliable?
The Average Brokerage Recommendations (ABR Indicator) is stock research class 101
Save your money, paper trade before you decide to follow others recommendations
John, ABR does not stand for Average Brokerage Recommendations did you just make this up? You clearly didn’t get this from his promo or his service…
john z,
Don’t think so. I can’t see Average Broker Recommendation tying up with this statement from Sagami’s teaser (and the opening post) :
‘Put simply, it shows you what percent of corporate revenue is coming from a certain income stream … one that mostly large companies have access to.’
The Weiss Group has a cash flow problem. Otherwise, why do they constantly tout one another’s services. They remind me of another street industry. Their services are not inexpensive.
Can you substantiate they have a cash flow problem? Or was this just something you made up?
All the financial newsletter publishers aggressively cross market their newsletter so I doubt that its a sign that they have a cash flow problem based on that fact.
I love how folks just make up that a company has a cash flow problem. Uncommon wisdom was spun off from Weiss Group. Weiss Group doesn’t have a cash flow problem. Weiss is a very rich man. ABR is also not what was made up in the above comment. Uncommon Wisdom Daily products have an average of 25% returns year to date. I subscribe to all of their products and laugh when I see all the garbage printed here. Stock Gumshoe has turned into a place were competitors bash each other under the false identity of “customers” but notice no comments come from actual readers of the service. ITS ALL ABOUT TRACK RECORDS!
I respectfully disagree. I, for one, subscribed to their Money and Markets (Nilus) and their recommendations were widely off the mark.
I was also tired of receiving their endless predictions of Armageddon – Greece, France, Italy, Portugal etc. etc.
I remember that their ‘hits’ included recommendations of Hecla Mines, shorts such as EUO, RWM, etc.
Could you please post what the portfolio percentage returns for the past three years have been for their flagship newsletters as you have subscribed to them?
Your logic doesn’t even make any sense to me, but I read almost exclusively Uncommon Wisdom Daily and Stansberry & Associates. Money and Markets analysts and researchers have NOTHING to do with the research done in Uncommon Wisdom Daily… Analysts only work for one company, there is not any analyst or researcher that works for both groups. To be honest I don’t really know what Money and Markets is publishing currently, but it is totally unfair for you to try to lump it all in the same bucket casually when they are completely separate research firms. That’s like saying that because a hospital in Houston Texas has a bad record in treating patients that a hospital like St. Luke’s Episcopal Hospital would have the same record, or because a doctor at a hospital has a bad record treating patients that the radiologist is to blame. Please try to keep your criticisms focused on the specific analyst you have subscribed to… And yes I am a big fan of Tony’s because of his track record, and I am biased because of that.
Yeah, uh, “BH”, you’re a “shill”. Anyone can google these newsletters advice and ROI tracking – and “25% ytd ROR off UWD recc’s”?? That’s an all out lie. I hope all that read this do their own due diligence, which should always be done prior to investing one’s funds.
Blue Chip Options ended the year up 56% which is the metric that counts.
The Product Blue Chip Options Being discussed is at a 30% gain year to date as of today. I dont know the specifics of the rest of the products off hand but I just calculated the gains from Tonys product of which this conversation is about and verified myself. As for the other products the last time I checked many were up there but I honestly dont know the exact average after this past week or two.
No one does because they never present YTD, 1-3-5 year returns for their products. I lost a ton of money with Larry Edelson’s Real Wealth. His system didn’t work worth crap in 2011-2012. Yet he still touts huge gains by always factoring in golds run from 2001 on. This is the third newsletter Tony has started this year. First Global Resource Hunter, then Resource Millionaire, now Blue chip option alert. I canceled my Global Resource Hunter after hes started the next newsletter and the update advice started to disappear.
Westy can you check your info, I don’t think Tony had anything to do with Global Resource Hunter or Junior Resource Millionaire… Also Larry doesn’t work for Uncommon Wisdom anymore. Try Money and Markets.
Most of the services were around the 20-30% range a few weeks ago when I last examined the services (not taking into consideration brokerage fees, etc), but many have come down some since. So let me retract my guesstimate of 25% and allow me give you the exact service YTD %’s instead for the services individually, Blue Chip Options is at 29.93% YTD. International ETF Trader is currently at 17% YTD (was 20% a few weeks ago), Junior Resource Millionaire is at 15.65% (Was 25% a few weeks ago), and The Infrastructure Report and Global Resource Hunter reports are doing very well as well YTD and I don’t have the exacts %s, but can supply later if people request. The only product down YTD in % is Global Trend Trader which actually had the best track record in the group in 2012. But “al brad” above is right, its extremely important to do your own due diligence when making investment decisions and past performance does not predict future performance in any way in any research product so just because track records for a product can be very strong now doesn’t guarantee anything in the future. The best service last year and much of the year before, Global Trend Trader (Formally Emerging Market Winners), which was at one point in the 20%-30% range as well is now trailing all of the other services and is now the only product in the negative, so go figure. Track records are where you start when you don’t know anything about the service or the editor. A little secret is that some companies will actually give you their track records if you call in and ask their customer service. Many of the above services are not for inexperienced investors, in fact some products like Junior Resources can be very speculative, and I would not recommend it for everyone… Every investor should do their homework and use the research to validate their own ideas. And for those that are not experienced in options trading, you should absolutely not try to buy the options service they are talking about on this page…
Good morning everyone,
I apologize for being a new investor and not knowing about everything. I did later read in Zack’s that in normal circles ABR is Average Broker Recommendation and that of and by itself is a nearly worthless indicator. The only reason I asked the question in the first place was that Tony S. used it to refer to a specific income stream and “recommendations averages” didn’t seem to make sense. Maybe in retrospect the “income stream” being referred to is in fact the increase in stock sales when more brokers start recommending the stock to their clients and as a result the clients purchase the recommended stock. To the two or three of you who actually addressed my question I give you my thanks. To those who dressed me down for being inexperienced (stock research class 101), if everyone on the forum knew the answers to everything, there would be no point in having a forum would there. And to those few who got into a testosterone war over letter resullts and financial status…Really?
Thank you all. I will not bother your “good old boys inner circle again looking for help!
Sorry about the “testosterone war” or “estrogen war” depending… If you are new to investing/trading, stock options are probably not for you and this is probably a dead point for you but I will share what I know. Tony indicated it is and acronym that “he uses” that is revenue related as you point out correctly above and the ABR that Jeff brings up has nothing to do with company revenue so that was just a case of a confusing acronym and Jeff probably not being as familiar with the promo.
If you are new to investing I would recommend reading books on stock valuation like “The Intelligent Investor” by Ben Graham. I always tell new investors to start with books and tell them not to make a real trade for the first year until they are confident in their ability to “price a stock” or at least begin to discuss multiples and peer groups and understand how the “market” prices things. Again options are not for new to investing folks in my opinion.
I’ll second the book recommendation and add to look for the version which has a commentary from Jason Zweig. I’ll also second to stay away from options for the foreseeable future.
IMO options are the only way to trade. Learn about “Leaps”. Options allow you to control more shares at lower prices so the opportunity for profits, and losses, is enhanced. To give you an example Larry Edelson, Money and Markets recently recommended Kinross (KGC). Aug 5 price was 5.10, today 5.92 for a gain of 16%. Jan 2015 $5 leaps acquired at 1.35 last traded at 2.00 for a gain of 48%. Assuming someone was intent on buying KGC would you rather own the stock or the options. Options for me
The other point I wanted to make was that in watching the video AND reading the transcripts Tony was very open that his indicator did not deliver those monumental percentages it was his play on the options. In fact if memory serves me correctly a lot of the moves that he optioned were only in the 3% to 9% range on the actual stock price which is not record setting. My whole interest, not in options, was that if he had “some type of indicator” that was fairly accurate in alerting moves, it would be interesting to learn more about that indicator.
In my limited knowledge of his investing style Tony Sagami never struck me as a technical type of investor. If I recall correctly he once recommended buying the Malaysia ETF (EWM) solely based on a less than a day stop over in the country because he was impressed by the bustle.
Pressed reply to soon. My whole point above is I bet the market indicator he uses is a simple one as is widely in use already. They are just slapping a new label on it for marketing purposes.
I subcribed to this service but found that the stocks take quite a while to gain and usually drop after the recommendation, and may or may not appreciate. I am down 3 grand due to the one stock I purchased since that was his overseas recommendations. I lost thousands in 1989 with Weiss because he was good in a down market, but not good at all in a sideways market in options, and his touted return of 189% for the year took a huge turn at that point. I am just letting my Real Wealth run out and not subscribing any more as all I have done is loose money with this group. I joined another service that was supposed to be buying ETF indexes but all that happened was it went south after their first recommendations and they did quick trades losing half the time so I knew it was merely guess work, so I told them my charts showed their call was wrong on the Euro and sure enough it tanked and I was glad I did not go into it. I don’t want to follow guesses, no one has any indicators that are better than others and if they tell you they do, they are fooling you or we would ALL be using them. They were averaging 50/50 and I can do better myself, so I canceled the service which cost $2500 and moved on.
I joined gold & silver trader the last half of June 2013. Net gains have more than doubled 3 year subscription requirement. Several purchases are up 10-12%+ in less than 10 days. Larry is off to a great start on this one.
I got on board with Weiss and company in 2006 with one of their “Lifetime Memberships”. Cost me 8k and I fluked a good return on a double leveraged financial ETF in the crash and recouped it. Pretty soon after I stopped following Weiss advice. They sometimes get lucky and then they refer to that advice over and over. They never mention their bad advice. Their YTD return info for their services is not very impressive, and that statement has held up for 8 years. Following a 20 day MA crossover almost universally beat their advice for the past 7 years. Save your money, or if you must listen to them then use whatever they say to assess bear sentiment.
Reviewer BH is obviously a paid Shill. Some of the other reviewers sound bogus too. I subscribed to Larry Edelson’s Real Wealth Report (RWR) for 2 years. If I followed his advice, I would have lost a lot of money. He continually recommended shorting gold and silver during it’s massive rise in 2010. When it hit about $1800, he said he was wrong. After it dropped from its high and started heading down again, he once again recommended shorting. His long term views are intriguing, in the short to medium term he does not fare well. For the period from 2004 to 2011 RWR returned 14% (about 2% per year). This was mostly due to gold.
As a subscriber, I had access to all the performance data for all of the Weiss products. While it was all raw data, with no yearly returns, it looked like none of the services were doing well, and there were lots of big losses. I am very disappointed that Weiss would hire shills to post here.
In 2006, Weiss Research, Martin Weiss and Larry Edelson were fined $2.1M by the SEC for advertising 400% returns on premium service newsletters ($1,000 to $5,000 annual subscription rates), while subscribers actually lost money. Sound familiar?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsletter-publisher-weiss-pays-21m-to-settle-sec-claims
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2006/ia-2525.pdf
Neither Martin Weiss or Larry Edlestein work on or for Uncommon Wisdom. If you are looking for them moneyandmarkets.com is the right place which is a different outfit.
the auto trader process took $$$ and made trades for clients automatically and the client had no input or review in the process. why would anyone do that?
regarding losses never being shown and negatives not being discussed Larry has stated that 70% of purchases will be losers but will be mitigated by sell stops which is what he’s doing. he also publishes spreadsheets showing all trade recommendations with enough information to determine dates of entry and exist, purchase and sell prices and ROI. I’ve created my own to include commissions.
when you lost money with Larry did you follow all of his specified trades or were you selective? when you placed orders did you also set sell stops at his specified prices. when you had gaining trades did you raise sell stops to the levels he specified?
of the trades i’ve made so far just over half are losers but the loss was contained with sell stops. the gains are being controlled by raising sell stops.
I precisely followed all of Larry’s recommendations for 2 years, with 1 exception. I considered shorting gold and silver in 2010 too risky. Had I followed that recommendation, I would have lost a lot. As it stands, I broke about even. I have followed Money and Markets, as well as the Uncommon Wisdom folks for years. I see a consistent pattern of hyping a new premium service, then later learning of subscribers losing large amounts of money (in addition to the high premium subscription fee). There a lots of stories here on Stock Gumshoe of people incurring substantial losses. The fact that they were fined $2.1M in 2006 by the SEC for hyping premium services that all lost money, says a lot about their ethics. When I see a paid shill (poster “BH” above) I see nothing has changed. I stopped receiving their daily emails today, as I no longer want to support unethical business practices.
Thank you for your input. I iparticate in their hard asset alliance and intend on buying into gold & silver bars as I think those will gain significantly in next several years.
Did you find Larry more knowledgeable in areas like metals and less in others or are your comments across the board?