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What a Year!

Visions of Sugarplums dance in our heads, and a new year of hyperbole beckons!

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, December 23, 2013

Know how you can tell that it’s been a crazy bull market? Look at the tracking spreadsheets here at Stock Gumshoe.

We’ve covered a couple handfuls of teaser picks that have gone up by more than 100% this year, which is a little unusual in itself, but look more closely and you’ll also see that the top performers on the spreadsheet at this point in 2013 are all small cap stocks that are unprofitable … you have to get down to the sixth-best performer (Aceto, ACET, a specialty chemicals company) to find one that’s making a profit, and you have to get down to number eight on the list before you find a company with a market cap over a billion dollars (that’s Alnylam, ALNY, a large and unprofitable biotech stock — and one that also topped the 2012 spreadsheet).

In fact, biotech has been a big theme again this year — you’ve probably heard some mutterings about a “biotech bubble,” which would help to explain why so many early-stage biotech companies have done so well this year… though biotech stocks that take a leap based on clinical trial results are with us every year.

Tech stocks, too, are big winners again this year, as they frequently are — when you’re looking for sharp gains in a single year, it’s hard to find that without companies that have shocking product successes or scientific breakthroughs, are riding a big wave of profit increases in a sector, or that get acquired at a big premium.

And we’ve had solid breadth indicated on the tracking spreadsheets too — for the first time in a while, there are more teased picks in 2013 that went up than went down. It’s close, but there are definitely more winners. You’d expect that in a year when the S&P 500 was up close to 30%, but it’s still nice to see.

And even the worst teaser stock pick, HRT Participacoes (HRP.V, HRTPY), is only down 83% or so … for the first time I can remember, not a single teaser pick from the year went down 95%+ or fell into bankruptcy. It’s sad that this is a big deal, but big it is.

The biggest surprise? For me, it’s the weakness in energy stocks. We know that the gold and mining stocks are likely to be the worst performers in a year like this when those commodities collapsed — certainly my gold and mining-related stocks have been spanked in 2013, along with most others.

But oil and natural gas prices are higher than they were a year ago, albeit off their highs of the Summer, so why are there so many energy stocks that did so poorly in 2013? Some of them are explorers that got hyped up on exploration possibilities and didn’t deliver, of course, a problem that hits at least a couple stocks every year, but even a few of the big, “supposed to be steady” new high-yield oil trusts took a clobbering. There are specific reasons for many of them, as usual, but that’s still a surprise — there weren’t many energy stocks among the top performers (excepting NXT Energy, an oil exploration services microcap, and Cheniere Energy, LNG, which rode the wave of enthusiasm for LNG export), and energy was firmly overrepresented on the bottom half of the spreadsheet.

We’re talking about a pretty high hurdle this year for those who are seeking relative gains (ie, trying to do better than the market in any given year) — if you had bought the S&P 500 index on January 1 of 2013 and just held it, you’d be sitting on a portfolio that’s grown by roughly 30% on the year … so all those picks that were made early in the year and are only up by 5-10% are, relatively speaking, losers.

But still, I’ll take a good year and the warm feeling it brings to your belly … and no, I can’t take credit for a good year in teaserdom, I’m sure that when I did my brief look at each of those picks over the year that was, there were probably several stocks among the list of the top ten or twelve performers that I thought were ridiculously overvalued before they went up by 100%, and probably quite a few that were on the list of worst performers that I owned or thought of positively at the time.

But you can’t put relative returns in your bank account, and you can’t invest in the rearview mirror — so as I raise a glass this New Year’s Eve I’ll be hoping that 2014 will bring a bevy of winners and another nice, bullish backdrop for all the crazy promises we cover in the year to come.

Stock Gumshoe HQ will be dark and quiet this holiday season as we all spend time with our families, but we’ll be back and raring to go as we cover the teasers and promises of the new year. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and thanks for making Stock Gumshoe a part of your investing life!

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harpswell
harpswell
December 23, 2013 6:33 pm

Have a wonderful holiday. In the meanwhile, have you analyzed the wonderful “Section 703 IRA” from the Oxford Club? You can use it to turn $2 a day into millions.

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James
Guest
January 22, 2014 5:58 pm
Reply to  harpswell

Nice going That would really be great to turn 2 dollars into one million.

Nancy Groth
Member
December 23, 2013 6:48 pm

Having lost everything as an entrepreneurial business (Gourmet Restaurant, Organic Farm, Artisan Bakery) including 2 huge 401Ks in the 2008 crash, it’s a little bit scary with meager savings 10K, to try to grow some sort of retirement fund. I appreciate and am so terribly grateful for your website. I have been able to grow due to you. But I’m extremely naive with regards to stocks, bonds, ETFs, dividends (all foreign language) so trying to come up to speed.
And you are very talented at making it somewhat easy for newbies to understand. Thanks for that and all that you do. Awesome Holiday wishes. Nancy

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Slick Rick
Member
Slick Rick
December 23, 2013 7:53 pm

Travis why don’t you have your readers submit ONE pick that they feel will be a blockbuster for 2014 with No restrictions on the pick. OTC and major exchanges will be included. The price is taken at the close of trading on 12/31/13 and finally on 12/31/14 . Largest % GAIN is the winner.
This would provide all readers with some of the best stock picks currently available!

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Jay
Irregular
Jay
December 23, 2013 10:44 pm

ok, just for fun, but I would limit the choices to at the least those that are generating revenue now.

CGNX

Tim
Guest
Tim
December 23, 2013 10:57 pm

Last year I would’ve went with Nokia. SP was $3.95 on 12/31/12.
This year I’ll go with Inovio Phamaceutcals, Inc.(INO).

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Tim
Guest
Tim
December 23, 2013 11:12 pm
Reply to  Tim

Well if we’re limiting it to income generating revenue only then I’ll go with MasterCard (MA).

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hdhirani
hdhirani
December 24, 2013 9:50 pm

1. Metanor Resources (MTO on Toronto Venture Exchange)
MTO is a Canadian gold miner that went into production in 2013. Production now stabilizing around 4,000 oz per month, with prospects of increasing to 5,000 as they open up new mine work faces. Official cost per oz is expected to be announced in Jan 2004, rumored to be around $1,000. If the price of gold were to rise in 2014 and costs are $1,000 or less, then MTO will thrive. These risks and the general malaise in the resource sector has held the stock price down to 12 cents Canadian. Hence, the potential for gain is huge under the right conditions.
2. Global Cobalt (GCO on Toronto Venture)
Canadian cobalt explorer. No present income but the compelling features are:
– Drilling and analyzing samples to bring the historical drilling data to NI 43-101 standards. This data, showing a $Billion+ resource is from soviet era drilling campaigns in Karakul, Russia, a prolific mineral rich area with decent infrastructure close to the Chinese border.
– Russian authorities are interested in opening up this area for development and have assigned funds for infrastructure.
– Drill samples from 45 holes presently in the lab for analysis. Results from sampling expected in Jan 2014.
– Agreements are in place to sell production to a Chinese company for 10 years.
– Market cap of less than $15 million with stock price at 17 cents Canadian.
– World cobalt supply is under pressure due to political decisions in Africa that threaten half of world production.
– Cobalt, used in growing sectors such as cell phones and batteries, is expected to show a surge in demand for years to come.

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afrasheski
afrasheski
December 29, 2013 3:38 pm

SNTI Senesco which I read about in a Seeking Alpha paid ad by John H ford. Currently trading under $6 otcqb. Seems that they might have a cancer cure using nano particles but need to succeed with successful trials to know for sure.
Andy

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jbalish
Member
jbalish
December 28, 2013 8:03 pm
Reply to  Slick Rick

UBSFY Ubisoft filling a gap and ready to take off with new game release “Watchdogs”. Their main game franchise is Assassins Creed.

Bruce Bardes
Guest
December 23, 2013 11:08 pm

Travis, my pick is DDD (3-D Systems Corp). My second pick is SSYS (Stratasys Corp).

dcinvest
December 23, 2013 11:16 pm

On one blog several weeks ago, MEI was mentioned as a possible growing asset and company worth the time to investigate. I take no credit but the person that mentioned he had traded it successfully was very correct. I researched the Company. Just before the last earnings release only to find people were selling the stock and the price was around $25.00 per share. Fundamentals on this company looked far better that most and CNBC had not mentioned it to my knowledge. I bought out of the money calls to possibly waste $0.65 because trading ahead of earnings poses a significant risk. The next morning the stock opened $2.00 higher because as usual the last 6 quarters they were missing their estimates on the low side. Short story, the stock went up $10.00 in 2 days. Thanks for someone’s research and insight on this valuable gumshoe service. Thanks Travis. Honest research to uncover facts or trends is priceless. Thanks to all your thoughtful posters and their suggestions worth the time to examine. Merry Christmas.

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dcinvest
December 23, 2013 11:38 pm

I will add a stock to look at or consider for 2014, (NAT). This is an oil tanker company that appears to me to be better managed than all the other companies combined. All tanker stocks are down because of an over supply that has lasted about 2 years or more However, the short sale of valuable tankers is near an end because most companies that over bought during the high daily rates are now bankrupt or out of business. Watch for daily shipping rates. Breakeven for this Company is near 10,000 USD per day. This past year that was the daily rate on the average. Currently the daily rate is about $35,000 USD.
When rates are up they have paid as high as 2.00 or more per quarter in dividends. That won’t happen anytime soon, in my opinion, but they currently pay over 7%. Rates may fall back. The CEO usually issues a news letter to the stockholders and he seems to be bluntly honest about rates. The stock has risen almost 2 dollars in the last 5 days to $ 9.60 range today. Suggest you watch for a pull back but I cannot predict with any accuracy. Do your own research. If the tanker fleet doesn’t get over bought the rates should stay this good or go up. NAT does not predict tanker rates. The market is competitive.

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dshisler
December 24, 2013 12:42 am
Reply to  dcinvest

In one word,
Stellar! (SBOTF)
Merry Christmas everyone and a very happy and prosperous new year!

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Rusty Brown in Canada
Member
Rusty Brown in Canada
December 24, 2013 5:35 am
Reply to  dshisler

Oh, that’s the ticker symbol. At first I thought it was one of those LMAO thingies.

Best wishes to all from Canada.

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nixim
nixim
December 24, 2013 6:00 am

Marry Christmas everyone and a prosperous 2014

mick
Guest
December 24, 2013 7:49 am

season’s greetings to all and to all a good portfolio.for a prosperous 2014 my selection is nwbo.be well

gggb
Member
gggb
September 5, 2015 10:04 pm
Reply to  mick

Mick, are you still in NWBO?

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rbowman
rbowman
December 24, 2013 9:06 am

(ZNGA), zynga

jamiekase
Member
jamiekase
December 24, 2013 10:02 am

EZCH

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Michael Isaacs
December 24, 2013 10:31 am

Before I found Stock Gumshoe this year I was trying to ID many of these teaser stocks myself using Google – not very successfully! Travis, may I wish you and yours all the best for Christmas and the New Year. Top stock for 2014 has to be DDD – 3D printing will change the world in ways we cannot yet imagine and this Company is a first mover in the sector.

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jimbo0421
Member
jimbo0421
December 24, 2013 10:47 am

CLNE – Clean Energy Fuels, a bet on distribution expansion and more transportation coming on line with the NG Highway

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baygreen
January 4, 2014 3:48 pm
Reply to  jimbo0421

James I like your play and have talked to Boone and some of his guys at B P Capital, they called me day after XMAS CAUSE SOMEBODY STARTED SHORTING THEM AT CLME ANS ASKED ME TO LOOK AROUND. The 2 TRAIN CRASHES OR DERAILS ARE recent the one in N D Was one of Buffets so he does not want to loose raw material getting from the Bakken and across the border is a big deal, Buffet makes an extra 10$ a barrel more when they haul it to refineries verses the pipelines and there are not any pipelines going south out of there because BUFFET GOT OBAMA TO STALL KEYSTONE CAUSE HE MAKES A KILLING ON THE BURLINGTON WHICH HE OWNS, but the people are getting unhappy with the trains go figure verses the pipelines so

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baygreen
January 4, 2014 4:46 pm
Reply to  baygreen

HE PUT A BUY IN ON THE PHILLIPS PLANT THAT MAKES THE LUBRICANT FOR THE PIPELINES TO MOVE THE HEAVIER OIL WHICH COULD MAKE THE PIPELINE INDUSTRY HOT AND YOU ARE TALKING TO A MAN THAT KNOWS OIL BOONE , MY POINT IS DON’T LET CLNE SCARE YOU IF IT PULLS BACK ,THOSE TRUCK ARE GONNA ROLL THE ONLY LINE THAT COMES OUT OF THERE NOW IS VERESEN fcgyf has a line from the Alliance pipeline to Chicago could get real interesting also fcgyf has a pipeline they just turned a permit in to US that will take nat/gas out of CANADA TO Oregon to China from FCGYF PLANT and they are a 2 bil$ comp. good outfit mntly dividend but if they get that permit a lot will change , ALSO across the border is LSTMF JUST CUT THE MONTHLY DIVY IN HALF AND SHORT ON MONEY BUT THEY HAVE ENOUGH LAND AND IT IS DOWN TO 5$ A SHARE BEEN THERE FOREVER I SOLD THEM LAST YEAR BUT BOUGHT SOME JUST THE OTHER DAY CHINA’S looking at them so is Buffet. I THINK LIGHTSTREAM WILL DRILL AND NOT SELL AND THEY GOT THE LAND SO IF THEY GET A PIPELINE LSTMF AND FCGYF WILL BE GOOD PLAYS BOONE WANTS THAT PRODUCT FOR HIS MIDWEST STATIONS AND NOW BUFFET BUYS THE LUBRICANTS FOR PIPELINES FROM PHILLIPS DO YOUR OWN DILIGENCE BUT SOMETHING IS GOING DOWN, OBAMA GOT ON THE BAD SIDE OF CANADA BUT BUFFET DID NOT AND TRP STILL WANTS KEYSTONE, THAT IS WHY I LIKE YOUR CLNE. GSFVF HAS HAD A TWO YEAR NO TALK CLAUSE BUT THEY HAVE BEEN WORKING FOR SHELL, COP HUSKY, AND THEY JUST POPPED TERRACE ENERGY DOWN IN TX TCRRF WITH BLACK BRUSH THEY ARE PRIVATE COMPANY GOOD FOLKS, CHEVRON GOOD FOLKS TO. GASFRAC HAS HAD TO SIT ON THOSE PATENTS DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL NOW IT IS A MONEY GAME, BUT THOSE TRUCKS WILL ROLL . BOONE IS A GOOD MAN PEOPLE SAY DIFFERENT BUT HE IS PATRIOTIC , HE AIN’T NO WARREN BUFFET JUST LIKE WARREN AIN’T NO ROCKEFELLER. I WISH YOU WELL BUT DO YOUR DILIGENCE SOMETHINGS GOING DOWN.

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fleagle
fleagle
December 24, 2013 10:58 am

UEC

Sue
December 24, 2013 11:03 am

To Travis & Myron, Like Nancy G. I’m still a beginner with long way to go but, gradually, I’m getting a bit better and, as I said to a friend : ” this is the most fun I’ve had in a long time ” – even if I want to scream occasionally. So, thank you both for your hard work ….believe it or not, a few things are sticking!!!!! Merry Christmas to you both, and to all the contributors whose comments I’ve enjoyed, and a happy and prosperous new year for us all. I’ll go for KLH.V – Stellar and I like Alnylam (ALNY) which was following long before I found my broker.

William Douglas
Member
William Douglas
December 24, 2013 11:49 am

Gilead (GILD)

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Fred
Member
Fred
December 24, 2013 12:09 pm

Merry Christmas and best wishes for 2014 for everyone from east of the big pond, but especially for Travis, thank you for all your valuable insights!

Dennis
Irregular
December 24, 2013 12:11 pm

Have been long with SSYS and DDD since Jan. Mr. Toads wild ride. Continue to see 3D as a successful disruptive manufacturing technology with enormous upside potential. Buyouts????

Pick: BOFI – same long position as 3D. Great internet only stock. Banks should do well in 2014.

Technology- What will be the most successful “Wearables” play in 2014?

I have learned much this year with very informative Gumshoe Irregular input. Thanks to all and to Santa Gumshoe.

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aterosin
aterosin
December 24, 2013 6:53 pm

I continue to be hopeful with SBOTF.

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Bob S.
Guest
Bob S.
December 24, 2013 9:25 pm
Reply to  aterosin

Brigus Gold(BRD) seems to have good prospects. It is being bought out by Primero Gold which has several successful mines in Mexico.

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oldiebutnewbie
oldiebutnewbie
December 28, 2013 7:38 pm
Reply to  Bob S.

Would LOVE to see this go up-bought on advice from Motley Fool a while back.

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Abe R
Guest
Abe R
December 25, 2013 11:58 am

Happy Holidays, Health & Prosperity to you & your family as well as to all readers & their families.

mmalissa
Irregular
December 25, 2013 3:51 pm

Hi all Gumshoe friends: I have a christmas wish: Can anybody tell me anything about CERES VENTURES (former Phytological…PYTO)? I did believe them when they told Investors they can transfer cinnamon to $$$ – long time ago…(Thats how stupid one can be when you are a New investor and fall for those teaser mails…). Thank you all, happy holidays and thanks Travis and team for the fun they’ve provided this year.
My pick for 2014: CGIX

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