The eyes and ears team for bio trialsThis discussion came about as the result of the GS thread ”This Tiny, Unknown Biotech is About to Unleash Its ‘Holy Grail’ Drug”
It is hoped that all/any that can throw light, can brainstorm here and feedback consensus to the thread. Good work Guys. my best Alan Harris.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
Scott P. from what I see the sources are the company or people in the company talking about them/itself. Again, you seem sincere, what is your background? I remember coaching baseball against a coach that was all rah-rah, his kids never got the fundamentals, they were doomed.
Fundamentally, what do you know about CVM (the science)? This is not an attack, just a request for more information.
My background is mechanical engineering.
Regarding the science, I don’t know much about it. I know that can be important but the company has said it is proprietary (which can be a loaded word). At the same time, it seems like many company scientists don’t always understand the mechanism of action related to their drugs. That doesn’t stop the FDA from approving them After all, if it is statistically proven to work and not make the patient worse, then why would the FDA withhold it? Patient benefit comes first.
What I am going on is positive Phase II results and the followup that occurred 3.5 years later. I am ware that there was no control arm, but to have a substance that can make tumors, shrink, or even disappear is worth taking a 2nd look at. I am also basing my positive assessment of Muiltikine on the fact that upper management went without salary for 9 months. I have had to do the same with my business when it was first starting, and there was only one reason I did that. I believed in the product and the market for that product. It is easy to dismiss this as anecdotal, but forgoing pay is not normal of companies that just want to scam people.
Regarding the SA article, the reason I wrote it is because I could see that there was a lot of misinformation and holes in peoples arguments regarding their assessment of Cel-Sci. I went through a lot of work to read every single press release and then write a comprehensive summary of Cel-Sci. For example, one of the questions many people, including myself, had was “Why did it take so long to start Phase III?”. After a lot of digging I discovered 2 things. 1) Cel-Sci decided to build a manufacturing facility which delayed the start of Phase III by an estimated 3 years. and 2) Their original CRO was acquired by another CRO which lead to significant merger problems. Many original people involved with enrolling patients left. I estimate this delayed the enrollment process by 1-2 years. That is why Cel-Sci now has a $50M arbitration case against inVentiv. Had Cel-Sci not had these issues, we would have Phase III results already – good or bad.
Scott, you should join irregulars to debate or discuss in detail regarding CVM or any other stock. Trust me it is worth every penny of yours!
I’ll make a deal with you Scott Postma.
(1) you come to the irregulars
(2) you post your best argument for CVM
(3) I post my reasons why CVM is a stock to avoid
(4) all irregulars in the forum will vote on who has made the better argument and what position they would take (long or avoid) in the stock.
(5) if you lose, you issue a retraction of your article in Seeking Alpha, and submit to Seeking Alpha an avoid/short argument for CVM (even free to use my arguments as long as you ascribe them to me and to Stock Gumshoe).
My medical degree, biochemistry PhD, residency, fellowships, double board certification, two post docs, years of pharma consulting, years of national speaking on disease and drugs, and years of being an investigator in multinational clinical trials, and years of practicing medicine that include managing thousands of cancer patients. Versus your mechanical engineering background.
So there’s the challenge. And if you refuse it, then I think we have our answer, and you just need to go away. You’ve not participated in any discussion but barged in here like a bull in a china shop, a cantankerous single issue advocate spoiling for a fight. You are here to make a lot of noise and turn a lot of heads, and that isn’t how this group operates. I am a really nice guy, but I expect decorum, order, equipoise and non-chaos, and that doesn’t seem to be you.
Hey Dr. KSS! Thanks for your post. I can see you are highly regarded on this and other GS forums. There is a problem with your proposal. Here it is. It is obvious that the majority of people on this forum already don’t like CVM. Even if I post outstanding arguments for CVM, they will still not like it. Therefore, it will not be the better argument that determines the winner. I can already see the outcome will be ## to 0. We are all human and often times emotions cloud judgement. That is true for all of us. At this point, I have to conclude to me that emotions have overtaken the conversation about CVM. I really want people to post solid reasons as to why CVM was a bad investment. I have to admit you came the closest, but then I read your concluding statement about physicians not using it even if it was approved. I am still confused…but I guess I just have to learn to live with it.
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I have been stating my reasons for being pro CVM equivalent to throwing softballs in the air and no one has taken a swipe at them with facts. No one has refuted the Phase 2 data – or explained why CVM would build a $25M facility, if in fact they are only in it for the money. They just say “CVM is a deadbeat company”. Can someone PLEASE give me good reasons as to why they are a deadbeat company.
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On another note, I am happy to issue a retraction on seeking alpha but I would have to be convinced wholeheartedly that the company doesn’t have a tumor shrinking/eliminating drug. I do like your challenge but it has to be a fair debate. I am not looking to win any arguments. I am looking to become educated and therefore a more informed person who can make better investment decisions for the long term. I know…I have a long ways to go.
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I would add another comment regarding your last sentence here but I’ll have to give up on the ad hominem stuff.
So well said…You should run for office some day.
I know who I’m voting for…
I have an open mind. (That is in addition to the obvious hole in my head!)
I claim no expertise but it seems to me doctors would
1. Seek the best outcome for their patient
2. Look for proper return on investment in method,time & talent.
I don’t believe the following is on this thread – yet. Here’s an article interviewing the head of an Israeli V.C. firm. the talks about great climate there for start-ups and IPOs etc. Down near the toom of this short article he says:
“We have Roche’s wish list, and are trying to bring the company a breakthrough technology with worldwide applications. The collaboration could be for a small-interfering RNA [siRNA] molecule, an antibody or an agent to target an immune checkpoint in oncology. We come up with new programs and if they’re a go, we establish a new company.”
Here’s the link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2125973-venture-capitalist-ran-nussbaum-brings-big-finance-to-little-biotechs?ifp=0
He also mentions Agro Med, BioBlast and Alcobra.
Blessings,
Ken M.
Dang it – 2 typos 🙁
Better next time.
Ken
To Scott Postma
The suggestion to read the irregulars info at SG would possibly save you lots of money. Dr KSS gives his opinions from the science/med view, but also a thorough knowledge of how Bio Tech companies operate and make money. Just because he does not think a company is a good investment, does not mean it will not go up in price. An example is MNKD (he did say it would prob go up) which he would not invest in. When I heard of it I could not get excited either, but you need to know what your investing in. Here we are not into pump and dump, but if that is what you have then you have to know when to dump. Dr KSS helps us with our dumps plus many other market timers and traders. There is a long story of failed companies who had what all believed to be good science, but in the end failed. Dendreon on the Tiny Unknown Biotech has multiple facets of how the industry works. I had this company and lost some money on it. It is your money see what you think of Dr KSS offer. He is our ddRNAi in this chaotic Bio Tech world.
Thanks for the info DBMD. I do not pump and dump. That doesn’t scale well for building wealth. For the same reasons, I do not short stocks either. I want to learn how to identify undervalued companies that offer long term investment opportunities. Thanks again.
To whoever is updating the google doc: I’m pretty sure Dr. KSS is negative on EXAS
Hi Opposeablethumb
It seems that JZ is an expert on financing matters. We have a DrKSS opinion column….is it worth having a JZ opinion column?
My hope is we can build a series of expert opinion columns so that all can get a quick broad view of any tickers merits.
Excellent idea, Alan
I am not opposed to it. But what should the opinion be in a nutshell. Dilution likely / unlikely? Underfunded/Funded = ‘Y’ , “N”. I am open to suggestions before I proceed.
Morning Allen and Opthumb (nice to meet ya OppS), im happy to help and honored that you guys would consider an opinion column for my finance investigative research.
What I would like to suggest is if I can simply add abbreviated code to the Gs Spreadsheet,
ex) if my DD-SMMF criterias are met ill write Sc-y for good Science ,
Mgt-y for good Management , Mkt-y for strong marketplace, F-n for weak finance.
So for the symbol BNIKF ….. Sc-y, Mgt-y, Mkt-y, F-y
for fake symbol lets say XYZ ….. Sc-?, Mgt-y, Mkt-y, F-n
so for company XYZ – im unsure of the science, mgmnt is good, market for drug is big , BUT thiers no money tree
Just a thought cuz im a very busy guy and would like to keep it simple
Wow….I wasnt even thinking that detailed or making that much hard work for you……All I was expecting was, just: JZ likes/is still thinking/dislikes. Or perhaps a 1-10 or % rating. That way you/we can re-grade as intelligence info changes.
Its something we have to think about as each ‘expert’ will need a system and it would be good to keep it uniform otherwise guys will be scratching their heads wondering what that swwy2 symbol means.
Not sure how this could be done, but it would be great to have a link to the post that has/justifies the rating so detail could be picked up from there.
Opposeable….can I ask you to mull this over and call this one as your the gatekeeper.
Actually the link thing is really easy…..just go to the GS question/answer, left click on date or article (in green) and paste it in spreadsheet by the experts name. Bosh. See sheet 5 for my demo.
How about this in JV cloumn
BNIKF …. Sc 8.5 , Mgt 8.0, Mkt 9.5, Fnc 8.5
ANP.ax ….. Sc 7.5 , Mgt 7.0 , Mkt 7.0, Fnc 7.0
Much of the my science rating is going to be my opinion on Dr.Kss and my own science advisors (if and when they ever get back to me)
That’s whats so great about Dr. Kss , he is readily available and has great expertise and knowledge in most of the different biotech specific areas of specialty.
It blows my mind how he works and makes time for this… truly gratefull.
Okay, my thought – the column would be JZ – Opinion – we could create a legend in the notes portion of the header, so as to only explain the legend once. JZ could post his opinion in the most current thread(regardless of company of interest), cuz that is all I am keeping up with. Then he can either set the link in the spreadsheet or I will or anyone can or etc…..
Im perfectly happy with that. But just thought the detail would be best kept in his post so it was read in context (refferenced by the link). Then a simple % would be sufficient. Ditto KSS, ditto uncle tom cobbly
Ahhh, perhaps just a Y or N and then a link to the details underlying. JZ, if you will post a legitimate comment I will set the Y or N and do the link as a test. This should work just as column 1 does, company name and link. Want to do with Dr. KSS also at least going forward.
See the TRGT problem of recent as to why in the most recent comment stream. If an opinion gets nuanced, what to do?
Okay sounds good,, thanx
FYI this was on Yahoo Finance today:
HALO -3.5% (announced that the United States Food and Drug Administration informed the co yesterday that a clinical hold has been placed on patient enrollment and dosing of PEGPH20 in an ongoing Phase 2 trial (Study 202) evaluating PEGPH20 in patients with pancreatic cancer
Ken M.
Ahhhh! Now a new possibility raises its ugly head. Not saying this is workable or desirable, but worth running up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes it….well this is a discussion board isnt it?
Many people have said the present threads are chaotic. Others have said its that very chaos that leads to the discovery of interesting new stuff. How to reconcile and keep order without stifling creativity?
Well, if say KSS writes a column and someone chucks in ABC as being an interesting ticker, we simply start an ABC eyes and ears discussion thread. Thats causes ABC to feature on the spreadsheet, which has a link to the relevant discussion board (which you can choose to subscribe to or not). This makes the spreadsheet into an INDEX for all the stox that have EVER been discussed, and keeps all discussion of ABC in one place, allowing both order and chaos to co-habit, plus allowing you to choose which you wish to be notified about.
Thoughts??
Morning Allen take a look at the addition of JV column tell me what u think…
thus far ive strictly been posting on Dr Kss Biotron thread until we have officially decided on posting rules of threads
also go check out the Benetic FDA growth chart, get a serious chuckle
I added a legend to the header for the meaning of the symbols SMMF.
Plenty of ol’ farts on this site….seriously hope Beni is one of them except it would mean the thread would die coz we’d all have retired to our private islands.
Still not sure about code system (although the legend helps). I think its better, to individually rate SMMF in your thread comment so you can elaborate. Then we’ll punch a % (or 1-4 or whatever) rating into the spread sheet with a link back to your comment so that all can read the nuance. It will also save you work updating the spread personally. We should also remember that access to the spread is uncontrolled ie free. Better that others have to pay $49 to get the low down. Helps GS to pay for hosting.
Just my two pen’ath.
okay agreed
Do u mean like this,
Antisense ANP
Sc : 70%
Mgt : 70%
Mkt : 70%
F : 80%
Overall : 72%
Benitec BLT
Sc : 80%
Mgt : 80%
Mrkt : 90%
F : 90%
Overall : 85%
Now that REALLY works for me….instantly obvious rating and v easy for Opposeable to sling the overall % into the spread without dislocating his thumb. Then others can drill down by taping the link back to the detailed analysis in your comment…..with a $49 entry fee. All things to all (wo)men !!
What say others?
We need to create a gold mine where no mining is needed. The gold is just sitting there in neat little gold bars ready to be picked up off the ground. I believe multiple threads will cause a maintenance nightmare. Assuming it were to be tried each thread would need a gatekeeper.
I vote for chaos, it is more predictable.
How about – One Thread Only- GS Irregulars Recommended Stocks
In many ways, thats the ideal coz ctrlF would work well. But it would get sooooo big, that it’d take an age to download and pos crash GS central computer/server. Also newbies would be daunted/never catch up. Seems to me that its either one giant thread (and sod the download time) or an eyes and ears thread (chatroom) for each ticker…..with a new KSS subject + general gossip thread, every so often. At the moment a lot of useful info is getting lost/duplicated between the thread cracks, coz you cant ctrlF across different threads. I understand the need for a gatekeeper argument. But others have offered to do this, and most regular Irregs would soon understand the structure/spread sheet indexing and post against the relevant ticker indicated and accesed via the spread, or the notifications they get from each thread they are signed up to/interested in. Each thread could also show a ‘Replies this week’ count so people could quickly see where the action is. Im sure Travis could do this with some tiny software.
Sorry to keep punting this idea, but its a simple choice between order and chaos. Chaos is inspiring fun, but bloody hard work to find everything relevant for your serious DD : Order is duller but easily followed, efficient and specific. The fun bit is STILL retained by the regular new KSS articles and consequential posts. So we can all post new stuff/ideas/jokes/thank you’s/ lumpy willy’s comments there.
Dont worry….Ill give up soon.
ya I hear your frustration ive only been here 2 weeks … was so impressed with the knowledge base that I jumped right in…. now its getting tiring running back n forth b/w threads. I don’t check the email box below, I get too many emails from my network everyday, it is hard to keep up already.
But I still feel it will be more chaos, not order, but having these multiple threads going on simultaneously. If the intent is Dr KSS wil only be looking at one “main site” for his review and comments and we parse this out to stock specific sites, there will be numerous sites going. And we all know KSS, he won’t limit his time to that one site, so we will be driving him crazy. I think that the suggestion that KSS suggested is the one to follow; ie, keep it like it is and new site is created when he starts a new column and discussion follows him to that new column’s site.
Lets start with the obvious…..there is NO perfect system given the number of people tuning in and their differing needs.
One possible solution is for people to bat stuff around about XYZ ticker on the XYZ discussion board. Then if the q has already been answered, they can ctrlF there and get the answer without bothering KSS. Anything truly new or unanwered can be posted to the latest KSS thread, thus minimising the quantity of stuff requiring his attention.
Alternatively, KSS can quickly scan each tickers discussion board (from time to time or once theres some breaking news) and see if theres something for him to add….thats more work for him, but still far less than he’s presently having to do to read all the trivia and duplicated comments on different mish mash threads.
The problem with the existing is that people keep asking him the same q’s coz they dont know that he answered their q, 2 threads ago. A ticker specific chat room would solve that problem.
I admire the enthusiasm with which you want to create order, Alan. I’m in the process of fixing some technical issues with the site’s backbone, and we’re moving on to hopefully making improvements in the way we handle comments and discussions and site search in the next few weeks.
I’m not going to change anything on my end until after we’ve made some improvements, but if you or someone would like to set up different discussions for various topics you’re more than welcome. We cannot easily make or maintain a single thread for every single post or discussion Dr. KSS has made, that’s much better done by individuals on their own computers if you want to keep an archive, though perhaps in the future we could offer him the option of having an inbox and let him simply reply to questions as he has interest in his regular articles instead of in the daily deluge of comments (just one of many options he might have). We may well be able to come up with some further improvements that help to keep track of the good Dr.’s musings and, indeed, of everyone else’s comments, but it will really be up to him what’s easier to handle. We’re paying Dr. KSS to write articles for you, but we’re certainly not paying him enough that we could obligate him to answer every question about every biotech stock or health issue that he receives — that he’s doing because he likes to do it.
Appreciated Travis……..damn, who had any idea what a tiger you let loose with that one Holy Grail teaser.
Still, if small, ticker specific, chat rooms can be established and jumped into from the index in Google (or whatever) software, there will be v little need for you to change your existing software. Something v similar could be applied to Myron et al. Then access to the chatrooms (detail) would be restricted to Irreg subscription….and I can think of no better way to entice folk to move across by coughing up….each article becomes the ultimate tease within a tease.
Personally, (purely from a GS marketing point of view) I would put KSS’s thread back on the free sheet. Im damned sure that it has resulted in a good deal more subscriptions than any other column. Just saying.
PS Oh and each chatroom download would be tiny by comparison, so would be v quick and a lot less for your server to handle.
I personally don’t think spread sheet should be open to non-irregulars,, anyone can edit it and make a mess…. look at Targaccept under Dr.KSS colomun it said Positive … my science advisor still likes the deal and is upset that I closed my starter position.
Once I start to accumulate I have no problem doing up to $250k , so when Dr. kss is doubtful. im out.
Im looking for confluence with Dr Kss, Just cause he likes it doesn’t mean I agree with the Market or Finance prospect,
Look at Admedus AMEUF yes its a good deal Sc, Mgt and Finance all check out, but market is ?able Its too expensive at $0.20 I like it at sub $0.10.
Their is also competition concerns in the market place for their cardiovascular tissue patch called CardioCel.
They are early in creating a DNA vaccine for HSV-2 infection with both prophylactic and therapeutic potential in genital herpes. There is also a therapeutic vaccine to treat HPV infection.
But this can be very big down the line.
Agree with JZ,,,,should be irregulars only. I agree with your objective Alan of getting additional sign-ups for Travis. Been pushing for sign-ups since the early days before this had grown as large as it has. I even think Travis should raise his sub rates and I don’t think he would lose a single subscriber. But regulars will screw up all the hard work being done on the spreadsheet. I also think that only specific gatekeepers should be allowed to make any entries in the spreadsheet as even irregulars can make an honest mistake and enter erroneous info.
Do you guys know what my parent fund pays its scientific research advisors that I have full access to… its ridiculous (well some of the good scientist are worth it)
We have Dr. Kss here for peanuts, gotta love him
Do you know what im paid to fully investigate just 1 PRIVATE startup…. lots.
( takes 4-12 weeks) and a lot more if I initiate the financing.
God I love those low price stock options and warrants
Not tooting my own horn guys.
Dr Kss and you all have opened up the USA biotech market to me
Ive already started buying and soon accumulating companies I wouldn’t of heard of , nor have the time to find, screen and study.
Couldnt agree more re access!!! Trouble is, we (who doesnt matter) chose Google (coz its free and its easy to use…..too easy now) . Google does NOT allow you to lock it. Opposeable thumb is our gatekeeper and only he should make changes….and has CEO authority to delete what ever changes are made with impunity. But its serious work for him to constantly monitor to ensure it stays kosher. So if you guys know some (free and easy to use?) software that can be locked….bonza. I also HATE the idea that just anyone can look in, especially for free.
JZ: I have absolutely NO doubt that everyone here is very, very aware of just how lucky we are (The thought that KSS might go AWOL scares the b’jazus out of me). As for you, we are also v lucky…..cant imagine your charges. It’s great that youve got something out of it in return too…..what goes around comes around.
My big worry is that you’ll make KSS an offer he cant refuse, and we’ll lose access to both of you simultaneously!!! Dont even think it Alan.
Google Spreadsheets can be restricted to edit or view by various means, including individual users. So it would be possible to have OpposThumbs have Edit privileges, and View privileges restricted to “anybody with the URL”. That’s probably the best that could be done. Travis would probably have to do it, being the owner/creator of the spreadsheet. OpposThumbs would have to supply Travis with an email. Actually, Travis probably already has that if OpposThumbs is a subscriber. But I wonder if it has to be a gmail address?
Brilliant…I didnt know that. Opthumb can get a gmail a/c free/v easily if he needs/doesnt already have one. His email is published on any discussion anyway…such as Eyes and Ears…..so its no secret. The only remaining prob then is free loaders looking in. To some extent the % makes that irrelevant. But if they want detail, they still have to sign up. That could be overcome too by getting rid of % column and just leaving that on the paid for linked thread.
JZ : Thank you for all your contributions.What a bonus we have received with your joining the irregulars. I am soaking it in with every thread.
Question when you quote prices are you quoting from the ASX? For instance you mention a possible buy of AMEUF at sub $0.10 and I see on the OTC it is at $0.117 and to me looks like it is sliding down with 8.5k average trading a day.
Thank you again for you wisdom.
Tom
I solved the problem by filtering all emails from these threads into a single folder. Then when I want to see comments for a particular stock, disease, etc I just use the search function in the email client. It puts all the matching messages into a separate tab that I can scroll through in date order. I’m using Firefox but I’m sure it will work in Outlook and should be doable in Gmail.
Thats an excellent system as it keeps the database on your own machine, and updated with every new post and you can delete out the clutter. The only problem I see is that replies that dont mention the ticker/company/drug wont come up on the search. Still you can ID a main post and then read comments surrounding that.
Unfortunately, I delete as I go so cannot now re-create the past.
What happened to the gs spread sheet its missing the bottom entries ?????
What happened to the gs spread sheet its missing the bottom entries ?????
Check now. Someone filtered the data. I turned the filter off.
Tx Opps , all good
Ive made new entries AMPE, ISR, ONCS, PTN SVA, SYN, and LBIO, TKMR (DD done last year).
I dont have time to make any posts on each company, in regards to there market and finance structure.
But rest assured my team and i put forth the same DD as i showed on Antisesnse ANP.
I will explain TKMR later on and my reasons for buying (not accumulating) last summer, and what it may do in the near future. remember this is a Canadian company , i know all the key players in it… it was a no brainer to buy last summer.
Okay ive said what I said, no more time.. ill do what ever you guys decide is best…
JZ: re ‘… my science advisor still likes the deal and is upset that I closed my starter position.’ Perhaps you could get him to state his reasons? Should be v interesting debate.!
Wow! we sure have a lot of thoughts about how to go forward. I would like to try and reconcile them by saying we should have one thread and at the end of every 1,000 entries it skips to a new start of the same thread with a sequenced number at the top. (ie; SG1, SG2, SG3, etc). The thread would be for irregulars and can be indexed into the spreadsheet. For example, BNIKF could be indicated on SG3, SG5, SG8 so if you want to research comments, we can go to those sub threads and do a F3. The spreadsheet may be too much work, however I still suggest the sub sheets that we all can refer back to. Just my thoughts.
Warner, I believe that your idea of sequenced numbers are they way to go. Very easy to see where you are and where the new sheet should be.
I agree.
So a mixed SG1, 2, 3, 4 thread is easier than a specific Benitec chat room, GILD chat room etc?
Any thoughts on the Money Map Report teaser out with Ernie Trembley as the guru of the Bioscience FDA calendar?
http://pro.moneymappress.com/ERNLAUNCH/EERNQ434/?email=dtjessup%40aol.com&wemail=hotlist&a=8&o=33238&s=35797&u=345262&l=289594&r=MC&g=0&h=true
The buy in is pretty steep $1950 but this would be extremely valuable research if it is real.
Suggestion: Travis is upgrading site,,,,If he gives us site-wide search capability =search problem solved. 2. Spreadsheet: Call it Irregular sheet & put in irr.section so you have to be logged in to access it,,,Irregulars already agree to have gatekeeper & the rest of us just keep hands off except to download own copy. String length: Open ended single string,,,chopped at 1000 2000 whatever ,,numbered & archived as read only access to irregulars so you can copy but no longer add to. You may not realize it but your Email client is already storing a good deal on your personal computer,,,Why not Go ahead & have your own spreadsheet & all threads you want in an office program. Apache Open Office is free & quite versatile. Probably everyone has a word-processing software already that would handle threads. Any other details to be worked out later.