Benitec (BNIKF)Benetic (BNIKF) Any thoughts on the large percentage (13%) drop in share price on Friday – down to $1.48? I could find no news on the topic, so I assume that it is a function of profit-taking rather than event-driven?
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That is correct! Mostly i would associate it to the delay in dosing the first patient! The correct is definitely a gift for those who want to load up on shares or planning to enter at lower levels!
We might even see $1.35 but i don’t see it staying there for long with lot of good things planned this year!
I am glad that your interpretation of Friday’s BNIKF dip aligns with my (novice) assessment. Since I have been persuaded of the merits of BNIKF – and I’m excited about the prospects for quantum improvement (and possible cure) for thousands afflicted with HCV and other major diseases. In that context, I took advantage of the share price drop to double up on my holdings. Thanks, Subramania!
Sure! Good to know! It is tough to be patient but i believe the rewards are too high in this one if ddRNAi technology is successful!
After dosing, what results can we expect first? HEP C or HIV? That will be the indicator for when to buy up BIG! So make sure your money isn’t tied up!
Hi subramania…to long term holders Down Under it seems the sell off was likely caused by nervous recent buyers selling their holdings on the supposedly ‘bad news’ that the first patient will be dosed immediately upon being positively screened and identified for the TT-034 trial in the US. The spread of information on social media (Hot Copper) magnified the misinformation – perhaps a lesson for us all?
The net result: a shift of holdings from weak to strong hands, further evidenced by an 18% appreciation in the stock today on the ASX. There is also strong apparent evidence of market manipulation – including high frequency automated (robotic) trading on this stock, which has IMO served to depress the stock in recent days and magnify the extent of the sell-off by triggering stop-loss orders on the way down.
By today, investors seemed to have come to the realisation that nothing fundamental had changed for the business – it’s been years of hard work to come this far…another few days/weeks is hardly going to hurt! In fact, many long term holders used the opportunity to top up their holdings here on Friday and again this morning with the stock dipping as low as AUD $1.54 before getting to AUD $1.92 (US $1.75) just before the ASX close.
Should be a VERY big day in the US Monday for BNIKF. Good luck to all holders. Clearly very exciting times indeed ahead for this company.
Thanks for the detailed feedback, rstickle. So far, it’s been a great St. Patty’s Day!
Does anyone know why BLT holders are already voting on the second placement and BNIKF holders have not heard a thing ie. no proxy information etc. Strange?
Nick I believe it is because the BNIKF shares are OTC and this makes it much tougher for the company to track down investors of record. The company can locate the BLT.AX investors without much trouble.
David B….thanks. I am beginning to realize that and understand. Next question, do you own BNIKF or BLT? The vote is irrelevant to me as I would vote yes. Are BNIKF equivalent to BLT ? We are still owners of Benitec, correct?
that is correct! they just trade under a different symbol here!
20% surge in BNIKF today makes the 12% drop on Friday much easier to stomach : )
The share price had floundered for the past couple weeks due mostly to things unrelated to the company–broader market jitters espc. in the biotech sector, tendency to flee to “safe investments” when there is global/market unrest and some bad days in the Australian market. Investors then tend to get more jumpy when things like a delay in a trial happen. Some of the jumpy, “weak” investors sold shares last week, much to their long term detriment. Benitec remains a company with a huge upside and a limited downside. Investors just have to have a stomach for higher than average volatility.
Pannobhaso has written another ddRNAi article on SA.
Here is the link to the SeekingAlpha article from today:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/19837781-pannobhaso/2771933-ddrnai-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder
I had the very great pleasure to attend an investor briefing with the Benitec executive team during the week. The discussion was very broad, however some key points are worth sharing – noting that they reflect my own observations and in no way represent the official views of the company:
– In investor meetings, PF now mentions BLT is the only gene silencing and the only ddRNAi company in Australia. Not long ago the admission of either would have resulted in a distinct lack of an audience! The tide has certainly changed on this front. PF sees the current interest in RNAi therapeutics as a gold rush – and while Benitec missed out on the first gold rush in 2008 while defending its IP, he is adamant that company will not miss out this time around.
– The company is not under the false impression it can market its own drug programs. Market success will be achieved through partnering with big-pharma, and the nature and level of interest in Benitec from big pharma has markedly increased. Rather than Benitec calling them, it’s now the other way round. Not surprisingly there is now widespread, genuine interest in Benitec from the ‘big boys’. The clear implication is there will be very strong competition for a partnering deal with Benitec (assuming clinical success) with TT-034.
– Despite Gilead’s Sovaldi being heralded as the ‘most successful drug of all time’ clinical success with tt-034, and an effective partnering (and pricing) strategy would allow Benitec to become a very significant thorn in their side. Just as Gilead prospered at the expense of Vertex, it is entirely possible that one day the Benitec shoe may be on the other foot!
– The company is acutely aware that the shareholder approval of the second tranche of funding is critical to a number of the current programs progressing into and through the clinic to their desired stages of evolution. In particular, reaching Phase IIB for TT-034 is seen as a critical milestone in value creation for the company. It was noted that Gilead’s $11 Billion acquisition of Pharmasset was achieved after a successful phase IIB. The management team sees no reason why Benitec cannot emulate this experience.
– While Benitec has no direct competitors, its ‘comparators’ all have far higher markets caps (Alnylam 5.5b, Arrowhead 900m etc). This is despite the fact that Benitec may have the most novel (and if successful) effective solution. The HepC market alone reflects 170 million sufferers world wide – including 1% of Americans. Anecdotal evidence suggests HepC sufferers react very well to the notion of a ‘one shot cure’ – with at least some individuals already planning to await the results of the Benitec clinical trial before commencing any other therapies. The implication is that if clinical success is achieved, the valuation disparity between Benitec and its peers may no longer hold true.
– The HepC clinical trial is seen as a critical validation of the potential for a HepB cure (a further reason why the Benitec team want to get HepC to Phase IIB).
– TT-034 trial results are likely to be available after 3 months and every 3 months thereafter – noting the first two patient cohorts will produce safety readings only, as the doses are sub-therepeutic in nature. Cohorts 3, 4 and 5 will provide efficacy reads over a 9 – 12 month period. However, HepC safety results are likely to offer a parallel validation of the company’s HepB potential, and are therefore seen to be a key milestone for engaging with prospective partners.
– Some very interesting discussions are commencing regarding the potential treatment of pre-transplant donor liver organs with TT-034 to avoid post-transplant reinfection with HepC. It is possible this work could be conducted in Australia, and that the approach has the potential to achieve breakthrough status from the FDA.
– The point was clearly made that the company has the necessary team, capability, and deal making experience to ensure that Benitec’s true potential is not undersold. The Board and executive team and have their eyes wide open, and are confident in their ability to realise the value inherent in the company’s intellectual property estate and clinical path.
– Regarding the recent addition of US institutional investors to the share register, it was underlined how rare it is for an Australian based company to be the subject of investment from groups with reputations (and investee portfolios) like that of RA Capital. The clear implication is that the due diligence conducted by these parties, and their subsequent investment reflects very well on the company, its management, and its future prospects.
– Nonetheless, Benitec intend to remain very conservative with their funds. They do not intend moving from their current offices, will consider only a small number of additional staff to support the increased clinical activity and international investor relations activity, and invest in some enhanced laboratory facilities to assist TT-034 and additional research activities. Put simply, the approach to cost management seems both prudent and conservative.
– All options are being considered for access to capital to support the company’s future activities, including a potential NASDAQ listing of Tacere. This is entirely appropriate IMO, and exhibits a genuine preparedness to consider all avenues, including leveraging the strong US networks now available to the company.
The session only served to strengthen my belief in the very bright future that lies ahead for Benitec. I also continue to be impressed by the high quality of the management team running this company. The team strikes me as being on top of their game, and exhibits a strong self-belief in their ability to guide Benitec through to a dominant market position in multiple focus areas.
As a shareholder this is extremely comforting, but investment aside it is pleasing to know that the enormous potential contribution Benitec can make to medicine is in very good hands.
– RS
Benitec long and strong: nice summary RS on the recent investor meeting. Thank you very much. Prudent Optimism sums up the management approach and this heartens me as an investor.
RS: did you post this on any of the other irregular biotech sites? was an excellent write-up and would love to have it shared with them.
……posting for email followups….
Me too
Terrible day for Benitec stock as some have the jitters due to the delay in the trial at Duke University. This is a volatile long term investment so load up on more shares if you have the capital. Dr. KSS picks winners (DRTX just panned out) so his #1 pick might falter in the short term, but hold fast or , even better, add on the dips for the long term.
David B. you have been an outstanding contributor, and I couldn’t agree more. I am fully loaded with 90% exposure. I am thinking about converting from BNIKF to BLT on the ASX market.
Anyway David, you have had a great track record.
Formerly, Nick S
Thanks for the nice comment Nick. Right now we are all a bit beat up but this is a marathon, not a sprint.
I’m a new holder. Bought last week at 1.26 and added some tonight at 1.08. Stock will likely be weak until the company signs up some participants in the trial.
I want to be as optimistic as The crowd. David you do have good instincts. But I am waiting with bated breath regarding Dr. KSS’s decision about adding on this dip or not. Later
Jana–perfect timing is virtually impossible but I would say that Benitec is an excellent buy at the current level. You could even put in a limit order for .95 and you might just get it. Go in with a small position and wait and watch until it begins to turn around and add to your positon.
R.I.P. Internet: 1 Explosive InterWorld Stock to Profit HUGE When the Web Goes Dark .
What company/ticker is this teaser ?
Jana, it looks as if the worm is about to turn on Benitec so hope that you got in recently. You will be very happy. Great detective work Jana Gumshoe regarding getting some inside information on the trial. It appears as if the company is being extremely vigilant regarding trial enrollment. This has led to short term pain for investors but may well result in long term gain. I can live with that but right now my very large Beni position has taken a very negative toll on my numbers. Despite getting killed of late, I have not sold a single share as I am nearly certain that there will be a dramatic uptick coming. My Spidey Senses are tingling, saying that the uptick is very near.
What do your senses tell you now?
Don’t know if anyone posted this May 12th Benitec trial update, here it is just in case:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140512/pdf/42pkng61rx74k0.pdf
Hi Robert, the “current” discussion is now on the blog “Hepatitis with a C: Right Now Someone You Know Has It (and Doesn’t Know)” so you might want to re-post there
Thanks Cyndy, just checked it and looks like it was posted there.
Thanks
So, just received word from my brokerage service of a non-mandatory reorganization or tender offer for BNIKF, which currently expires on 12/31/2018. I cannot determine if this is good news or bad news. I rode the share price down over the past month or so to where it is today, and would rather not lose any more than I already have. I do know I need to take action if I want to keep my shares. Anyone else have a pulse on this?
I got the same alert from my broker but there were no details in the email. I’m guessing it is because of the new ADR with symbol BTEBY.
–MJ