written by reader Biotron Chat Room

April 7, 2014

This discussion is designed to run parallel with the Dr KSS’s article ’Another Hot Australian Biotech: Is Biotron Right for Your Portfolio?’ http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/04/microblog-another-hot-australian-biotech-is-biotron-right-for-your-portfolio/ and serves to provide a free general chat room. With luck it will stop the main thread becoming so cluttered with (while often v interesting), random/off topic/thank you posts. If the strategy doesn’t work/appeal, it can easily be ignored/ditched without affecting the main thread. GLA
AlanH

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 11, 2014 3:20 pm

Kenny, I want to take advantage of the prices as well – can’t decide where to take advantage. I don’t have a position in QRXPY or DRTX. I do have BNIKF, ISR,CTIX,PTN,SNWV,ATHJF and OXBT. Can’t decide to reduce my cost basis in OXBT (5.65!) or take new positions in QRXPY and DRTX.

Is anyone else in buy mode, or waiting to see how the next couple sessions play out?

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bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 11, 2014 3:23 pm

Great post Pockets! I am happy there is another solution for those who don’t use Outlook.

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tompaol
Irregular
tompaol
April 11, 2014 3:35 pm

Hey Bradley: I am holding OXBT, ATHJF, QRXPY, DRTX, CTIX, PTN, SNWV, BNIKF,ELTP,AND ISR
I took my profits in ISR and then went back in for small position when it came back, QRXPY is back where I entered so I am good there, I am waiting for DRTX to find its bottom to average down, as I bought at $14.00, I will take additional purchases in CTIX, BNIKF, and maybe SNWV.
Also looking for possibly another 5k in ATHJF if I am confortable enough with the bottom end.

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tompaol
Irregular
tompaol
April 11, 2014 3:38 pm

Also holding Mankind as I wan’t smart enough to sell when it hit $8.00 (Oh Well) I will hang on to it and see where it goes. I think it has room to grow some more.

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bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 11, 2014 3:56 pm

Thanks Thomas, I have an order in for 1K QRXPY at 3.87 – it hasn’t filled yet. I wish I would have been in Mannkind! I got in ISR near close yesterday and paid 1.67 – it is the only green in my portfolio today.

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tompaol
Irregular
tompaol
April 11, 2014 4:08 pm

Bummer Bradley: I am looking at the last sale on Level II at 15:54:34 EDT for $3.86 2500K

Funny the one I care about the least is ISR but I have been watching it for a year got in and out when it would ride up from $.55 to $.89 and back and forth. I did that several times, and then was able to get in at $.80 and bought more at $.99 and rode it up for my biggest gain ever. Sold enough to cover cost and then the balance at $2.80 Now I am back in at the same price because I think something is going to break with them as far a buy out. I just have a small position now though couple hundred shares. PTN is back where I bought it now at $1.29 which I like.

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KennyG
Irregular
KennyG
April 11, 2014 6:30 pm
Reply to  tompaol

Bradley – I am holding the same positions as you plus couple others but no SNWV. May buy that one soon. Showing profits in PTN, PVCT (which I have been looking to sell but doing good), QRXPY and slight profit in ECTE. I had been averaging down on RNN and CTIX and DRTX but prices down since, so should have waited (thats the 20/20 hindsight thing). Had a 1 day buy/sell of ISR for nice profit, and haven’t gone back in and dont intend to. Otherwise I am holding pat for now but if Beni should further weaken I plan on getting more although it is already my biggest security holding. Call that faith in DR. KSS!

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KennyG
Irregular
KennyG
April 11, 2014 6:40 pm
Reply to  KennyG

….. and after just reading KSS’s latest post re ECTE I may consider selling that next week. Ain’t this fun?!

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timmuggs
timmuggs
April 13, 2014 10:18 pm

GILD, Pricing and politics…

Some thoughts on the pricing of GILD’s Sovaldi, the political reaction, and what we might expect in the future.

As Dr KSS said, it is cheaper to for the country to treat HCV patients with Sovaldi than to endure the costs of treating them over the long term. However, as a taxpayer, I have sympathy with the congressional questions over the cost per patient. This is not a simple question to deal with as there are many factors and many players in the game. So here are some thoughts I’ve had on what may be motivating the various players and how it might all come out.

1. GILD sees ABBV and others coming out with potential cures for HPV, so their primary interest is to get as much $$ up front for its first to market solution as it can. Other players will undercut their pricing later, including Benitec.

2. Congressfolk see that if we treat all HCV patients with Sovaldi as fast as possible, it can hurt the USA eonomically. While Dr KSS explains that it is cheaper to use Sovaldi at proposed pricing than to pay the lingering healthcare costs of HCV sufferers, he has also said that most hepatitis victims have made poor life choices in the past. I think congress should question whether the savings in future health care costs of Sovaldi will ever happen. As soon as these patients get healthy, they could make other poor choices and we’ll be faced with continuing healthcare costs for these people anyway for other diseases. My interest, as a taxpayer (and also as a BNKIF investor) is to slow down the spending on Sovaldi, let other solutions come to market, and monitor what actually happens with a few patients that actually are treated with Sovaldi.

3. ABBV, Merck and others who want to sell hepatitis cures have responsibilities to their shareholders & bosses to make a return on their considerable investments. Fast rollout of GILD and Sovaldi are an obstacle to that. Thus ABBV, Merck etc can slow down GILD’s progress by hiring lobbyists to gum up the works. While it feels good to diss dumb congressfolk, my take is that their concern is spurred by expensive lobbying efforts funded by smart capitalists, not dumb liberals. Healthcare insurers also have an interest here: Are they humanists who want to cure HCV ASAP? Or capitalists who would rather wait until competition drives down prices? I’d bet on the latter.

4. So what’s the implication for Benitec, GILD & others? I think that congressional concern is a positive for Benitec — it would not be a good investment if GILD cures all the patients in the next 2 years while Beni brings their cure to market. As a taxpayer and an investor in BNIKF (and a big fan of enlightened self interest), I think that congress really should take a look at the market and see if we can get a more cost effective, market based cure out there. Whether that happens via GILD cutting prices, or slow-rolling their rollout, or whatever, I’m not gonna write congress and protest. Thus I think GILD will make some good loot on Sovaldi, but I don’t think their pricing power will last very long, so I’m not buying GILD. I will hold BNIKF as they own not just the market mechanism for making HCV & HCB cures more cost effective, but also key technologies that can be applied to several other diseases.

I’d be interested in the thoughts of others on this topic.

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arch1
Member
April 14, 2014 1:30 am
Reply to  timmuggs

timmuggs; I think you have a good read as to how things actually work & I do not blame Congress or the President for that.. I blame the voters for not doing their homework.
Personally I am glad we don’t get all the government we pay for. fa

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biotechlong (btl)
April 14, 2014 10:21 am
Reply to  arch1

Where is it written in our Constitution that Congress or the Executive Branch are responsible for health care management and empowered to act in “regulating” health care ? The only legitimate regulatory role of the federal government in this arena is that served by the FDA (i.e., public safety). If Congress and the Executive Branch adhered to the “First Do No Harm” principle, they would abstain from illegitimate (i.e., without Constitutional empowerment) meddling in health care.

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hipockets
Irregular
April 14, 2014 9:24 pm
Reply to  arch1

Frank, it would be nice if we got SOME of the government that we pay for.

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hipockets
Irregular
April 13, 2014 10:47 pm

timmuggs — post 47 —

Great post, well reasoned, and very informative. But I doubt that our amazingly do-little congress will address the topic. They are focused only on the 2016 election.

Hmmmmmm…do-little…..Maybe we need a Dr. Dolittle to talk to the animals there.

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Elliot
Member
April 15, 2014 7:35 pm