written by reader Regado Eyes and Ears discussion/chat room

April 18, 2014

This discussion came about to parallel KSS’s new article on Regado. (If you dont know who KSS is, welcome to planet Gumshoe!) Its aim is to keep the main thread less cluttered, by giving a space to bat stuff around, ask other irregs for help and provide a home for all the ’Thank You’s’. Doubtless KSS will tune in once in a while, so dont think you are being ignored.
Have fun. AH

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Elliot
Member
April 24, 2014 10:36 am

log

๐Ÿ‘ 502
bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 24, 2014 11:42 am

David, thank you for the time โ€“ been following your posts and find you to be level headed and knowledgeable, so thank you for your opinions โ€“ you and a lot of others make this a valuable site.

Along with the holdings I mentioned, I have positions in a gold ETF and a silver ETF along with an oil โ€œflyerโ€, which I think was mentioned on GS a while back East West Petro. Anyway, as Mickey Redmond (Red Wing Alumni) says, โ€œthis is no place for a nervous personโ€.

Although I feel like we Gumshoers have an advantage collectively, rather than going it alone, I am concerned with the size of my positions โ€“ more accurately, I am wondering about the size of my positions. Like you, I have a lot of Benitec and smaller positions in CTIX, PTN,RNN,OXBT,SNWV,ATHJF and recently 100 shares of GILD.

If I use a hypothetical 100K portfolio, I have 20% Benitec and 1.5% to 7% in each of the others. I am extremely curious to know what you and others think about balancing portfolioโ€™s given the 100K hypothetical portfolio containing the above equities. We are anonymous for the most part, and it is purely hypothetical, so we are not exposing our financial situations to each other. Or, please feel free to comment on my portfolio.

For a while my metal ETFโ€™s have been a pretty good hedge in my portfolio, but currently I only have two โ€œgreenโ€ positions, RNN and PTN, all the rest is red and Iโ€™m down 6% overall โ€“ compared to being up 15% before the Bioโ€™s took the hit. I am hoping for a nice โ€œpopโ€ from one or more of these to ease my mind

I am not panicked by any stretch, however after the recent QRX cluster f*** (sold on the 15th thank God), I am becoming a nervous person. Alan, I am not investing more than I can afford to lose, but I would be very pissed about changing my lifestyle.

Thank you again David B and all of you that contribute SO much here. Travis, you are my hero for creating and maintaining this site!

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Elliot
Member
April 24, 2014 12:02 pm
Reply to  bwd1up

Bradley,
I realize I am not the one you have asked for advice, but I thought I’d chime in and you can take it or leave it. If the positions you have shared are your only positions in your disgretionary portfolio, I highly recommend you (slowly) downsize in biotech and look to diversify across sectors, choosing top notch companies and companies with excellent and/or stable opportunities for growth. My personal opinion is that no one should have more than 40% of their portfolio in one sector … and even 40% is pushing it … if you’re going to be that heavily concentrated in that one sector, you’d better have a lot of conviction, which it sounds like you don’t have.

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bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 24, 2014 12:28 pm
Reply to  Elliot

I hate to sell when they are all down, and plan to reduce or get out if I could get bounce from some of them.

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Alan Harris
Guest
Alan Harris
April 24, 2014 12:40 pm
Reply to  bwd1up

Bradley: Make no mistake…. I work long hours for 4k, so losing it is a kick in the nutz. When’s the last time you paid a plumber 4k for a days work? (no comedians please….thats my job on this thread) Nor was I saying everyone should bet so small that they can say ‘Hey Ho, what do I care about some hot dog money? But everyone needs to exercise an element of self control over how much they can AFFORD to lose without needing to jump out the window before the wife and kids get home. As with all gambling (and make no mistake this IS gambling) there’s a very real danger that all the euphoria here could lead some silly person to rashly bet the farm imagining theyre guaranteed to become a miwyanaire. That would be just bloody stupid and I want no part in encouraging any impressionable person to make that mistake. Of course we all want Beni, Regardo, RNN, etc to go to the moon……but dont anyone get in a situation where they go to the dogs instead. Likely you have more chance laying your every penny on red or black just once at the roulette wheel.

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KennyG
Irregular
KennyG
April 24, 2014 1:01 pm
Reply to  Alan Harris

And this is why Alan is our designated CEO. Words of wisdom occasionally mixed in with humor. You were spot on Alan.

Bradley – as an example, I have about 8.5% of my total investment portfolio in BNIKF. That is a lot. Normally I would not go more that 5% in any one stock. This is my only exception. What is working against you (us) is that the entire biotech industry has experienced an extraordinary 5 year performance. Was this a bubble about to burst? Probably. And we all here are basically buying into this just as the bubble burst – – or at least going through a correction which was inevitable. Situations like QRXPY happen (I haven’t sold yet, but if I were to sell my QRXPY at current prices I would have a $14k loss). As Alan wisely stated we shouldn’t invest too much in any stock (nor any specific industry) cause if there is an industry downturn, all ships will sink. That has happened with the dot.com, chips, technology, media, airlines, precious metals, etc, in the past. However, the good individual stocks will come back – – if you are an investor! If you are a trader, these paper losses become real. So diversification is important. So is not putting too many eggs into one basket.

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bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 24, 2014 12:18 pm

Thanks Elliot, I appreciate everyone’s opinion for sure!

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bwd1up
Irregular
bwd1up
April 25, 2014 9:46 am

Thanks guys. Your input is very helpful. Part of the reason I am in more bio’s than Benitec is because of the recent “correction”. I think we all agree that there are/were some pretty good buying opportunities created from the correction. I also strongly believe the brilliant minds on this site. I do DD along with the opinions here, but I see a nice advantage being a member of this community. I’m going to wait for some of my picks to come back to green and do a little rebalancing and diversification. Thanks again!

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sphereya
Irregular
May 8, 2014 3:29 pm

Question from the pharma newbie? Did anyone from this most astute forum arrive at a price that they thought RGDO was a good value? When they released that secondary offering who is involved in that, retail or institutions? RGDO has really gotten hammered lately and was curious if anyone thought there was reason? I have read that there is a large short interest.

Any info in very appreciated. Thank you to Dr. KSS for the original article and all of his comments following (and to the rest of nation Gumshoe).

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David B.
David B.
May 8, 2014 3:46 pm
Reply to  sphereya

Sphereya: RGDO is a great value right now. Secondary offerings and private placements tend to be open to both insitutions and private investors who qualify (middle class folks usually don’t qualify which I think is total BS but that’s why the rich get richer!). There is almost always a large short interest in any small company stock that has volatility.
I am personally much more interested in the science behind a small biotech company than all the market manipulations, but perhaps that is why I am not in the 1% yet.
The current under performance of Regado seems mostly due to stock dilution and headwinds blowing on all of biotech. Long term, this will be a great investment and now is a great time to buy. My advice–buy now and be patient.

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robertvince
Irregular
May 8, 2014 4:04 pm

Added a few hundred more shares today…. Logging in

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reasonableguy
Member
reasonableguy
May 8, 2014 6:29 pm

I’m nibbling RGDO at lower and lower prices but taking some solace in the fact that I am buying well under the secondary offering price of $6.00. Of course it is discouraging to watch the price drop, but it is necessary to consider the “script”. If recent history has taught us anything, this is an aggressively-manipulated stock. Not surprising considering its small size, and it can be done with (relatively) small amounts of $$. Based on what’s been happening with this stock recently, I think a valid strategy might be to load up at these lower prices and sell with both fists on the next big runup, which might occur just prior to another secondary announcement. It seems likely there will be at least one and possibly more secondaries necessary to complete the trials, and it also seems we might have some time to accumulate the stock at reasonable prices before the next pre-secondary runup. Another thing to consider is that the market recently has been absolutely brutal to money-losing companies across the board, almost regardless of their future prospects, and this $5 stock is currently has an EPS of -4.59 per share. I think there will be an opportunity to make some money on this, although a little patience will be necessary.

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arway
Irregular
arway
May 9, 2014 10:58 am
Reply to  reasonableguy

@ Reasonable Guy: You really looks reasonable with a cool head. I saw several of your post. very impressive. I’ll buy some more shares and wait.