Thoughts from Myron — Agriculture Is Where It’s At
by takeprofits | April 2, 2014 9:30 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/04/microblog-thoughts-from-myron-agriculture-is-where-its-at/
Myron Martin…Thank-you for this coverage of possible agriculture investments. A few years ago, I had a good experience with IPI. AMHPF, that you favor among potash companies, is new to me. So I’ll check it out. I’m also intrigued by GRO, another that I held years back. It sounds like a good investment, with income up 147%.
hello gumshod
The editor of http://www.global-investing.com, namely me, has met Eduardo Elsztain, the largest shareholder in Cresud, CRESY, the Argentina agricultural firm. He also runs a shopping mall company and a construction firm, both of these in Buenos Aires, which is not part of the pampas. Moreover he is involved in a disputed Israeli private equity fund rescue for IDB. The various Argentinian shares, all of which are US-listed, seem to invest in each other to boost the share prices, which makes it hard to keep them straight. I find him a slick and somewhat dubious character. Every time you meet him he tells you about how George Soros invested in Cresud, which is true. But Soros exited in about 1994, something Mr. Elsztein fails to tell you.
My view is that there are problems apart from the cyclical nature of any agricultural holding. The other companies are IRSA (Inversiones y representaciones) and APSA (Alto Palermo, the mall operator). Of late, Eduardo has a guru of rather mixed reputation, an Argentinian rabbi called Yoshiyahu Yosef Pinto who filed for bankruptcy here in my neighborhood after being convicted for trying to bribe a Staten Island state congressman. His residence and synagogue are boarded up because he cannot pay the rent, I think. And after the Rabbi fled to Israel, Eduardo also followed him there, and moved to a Kibbutz where his sister lives while battling his former partner in the IDB rescue, Moti Ben-Moses.
I do not like the smell of this stuff.
Shaky character=shaky investment
Myron…Thanks for your ag investment article. Some time ago The Gumshoe wrote about Sprott Resource Corp (SCPZf). What is your take on this Canadian co?
Long term I think Sprott Resource Corp. will do well. The whole Sprott organization has excellent and ethical management with a high level of competence. That is not to say that their various offerings can not have periods of negative results temporarily like any other stocks, the market is what it is, volatility in the past few years is unusually high, but for smart traders that can enhance trading opportunities for nimble traders following trends.
Probably a misprint (my older grey cells have these moments) but Myron must be talking about Input Capital Corp. symbol INP on the Vancouver Exchange. Goes nicely with my affection of royalty companies and agricultural investments. See analyst targets of about $3.10 Cdn.
Hi Stefan: yes, that’s right. We’ve made the correction. Thanks so much!
Sorry, I am a little confused about GRO, reading it seems to be said as an only NZ agricultural stock listed. Well, being an ex New Zealander this was something to definitely look up. However, when I punch in GRO it is listed on NYSE with hq in Beijing China. So did I read that wrong & it is actually a Chinese company, or wrong listing I looked up for Agria Corporation as GRO
Looking a little further a company profile says they run internationally through PGW of New Zealand as GRO are majority shareholders in PGW- New Zealand’s largest agricultural company according to Agria Corporations filings with SEC.
Maybe it is too early in morning & not finished first cup of coffee… 🙂
Myron, I know this article is about agriculture but I am very interested in what you think of climax gold and the tiny companies that will most likely be the big winners.
Hi John D. and others, I had a look at GRO – Agria Corp. and it does appear to be a Chinese company. BUT, does it matter since it appears to be NZ focussed? The reason I’m asking is that a lot of people are talking about China as if a possible slight fall in its GDP is going to lead to disaster in some way. I must admit I’ve been cautious because China isn’t exactly a transparent country . However, it is going to make some difference to the world economy AND it is also trying to get a certain amount of food security for itself as its present enormous population upscales and starts demanding . an “improved” diet. So, 2 aims can be satisfied : the Chinese attending to some food security and we investors attending to some, hopefully, financial security. Agria would be a good company to see how we go with our first Chinese investment!!! And probably a lot safer than banks……What do others think? Sue.
Hello Myron , do you have an opinion on passport potash ?
Myron, Thanks for the info-as always-the pleasure was mine. I can tell you that Adeconagro S.A. (AGRO) is a stock I bought 600 shares of about 18 months ago when I heard George Soros was heavily investing and on board and because it was a large piece of real estate in what WILL be the breadbasket of North America in the future (mainly Canadians where all the wealth will be transferred, nonetheless) it was also supremely cheap as it was trading for just over $6 at $6.11 when I jumped in because I wanted a solid arable land play and Addison Wiggin of Agora recced it to me via his Apogee Advisory, which I no longer subscribe to but thought it was a fine service. Because I knew it was actively taking an enormous chunk of Brazilian, but also Argentinian and the best of all farmland – Uraguayan, I wanted a WATER play, and I hopped aboard (VE), the French Water Desalination and Environmental company w/ that nice 3.7% dividend last summer when it was dirt cheap at just $11.79 and does business all over the globe, from the entire coast of California to Turkey. Both plays I believe are safe and along with Physical PM’s and the ‘right’ Miners/streamers are set it and forget it portfolio’s.
Gro has fallen from its high to $1.30 Ouch!
These type of zig zags in the market are not uncommon. When you have done your due diligence on a company and have the courage of your convictions it is usually best to hang on as losses on paper only become real losses if you sell, many times they will bounce back from a dip within days or weeks, the difficult choice is whether to average down or take a small loss hoping to buy back in at a lower price if you really like the company. The question to ask is “has anything fundamental changed at the company, or is the drop primarily due to temporary market sentiment” If you can identify a “channel” in which a stock has historically traded then buying low and selling high can be more profitable than a “buy and hold strategy.
Myron, do you still have a newsletter? I have been searching all over the blogosphere for your newsletter info but never seem to find a place where you sign up. Do you still have one and how do we access it? Thanks!!
LACK OF INVESTOR INTEREST AS A CONTRARY INDICATOR
If there is any truth to the idea of lack of investor interest is a good invitation for investment, then agricultural commodities might be a good place to look around.
On the Agriculture thread there is nothing but the sound of crickets. Watching paint dry has more excitement. Agricultural commodities are even more beaten down than gold and silver. (Coal is the only commodity that looks worse, it is definitely the ugly chart champion of 2015, year to date.)
Did people stop eating last week? Are hunger strikes now in fashion ? Please advise.
Take a look at charts on WEAT, CORN, SOYB, CANE. Look at DBA and LAND.
I am also interested in WHGBY, largest Chinese pork processor who recently acquired Smithfield. The potash space would interest me, but it has already started to perk up and I have a temporary allergic reaction to any more mining companies.
Thoughts and ideas welcome.
No positions, other than a nibble on DBA.