written by reader Oxford Club’s Mark Litchfield’s teaser on Lighting Trend Trader.

By xiexgp@gmail.com, June 2, 2014

Is there really a way for anyone to get information on the FDA’s announcements on their approval or disapproval for drugs? That to me sounds like insider stuff, what do you think
Lou Pre32

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Observer
Irregular
Observer
June 2, 2014 6:04 pm

I subscribe to Marc Lichtenfeld’s “Lightning Trend Trader” service, and I haven’t seen any evidence that Marc actually claims to have “insider” information. If he does have such access, he’s certainly using it to very poor affect. Prime example: He recommended puts on MannKind back in March, because he was virtually certain the FDA would reject one of its drugs, and then wrote that he was “stunned” when an FDA committee voted to approve the drug in April – the puts expired worthless. I posted the following elsewhere on Stock Gumshoe today:
My impression is that Marc Lichtenfeld of Oxford Club is a smart guy and works hard – but my advice is to be very careful about subscribing to one of his “premier” services. So far this year, in his “Lightning Strike” service he has had the following results:
Recommendation #1 stock – currently up 25%
#2 stock – sold for a loss (price dropped and hit its 25% sell stop)
#3 stock – sold for a loss
calls – sold for a loss
#4 puts – 100% loss
#5 stock – sold for a loss
#6 stock – sold for a loss
#7 puts – presently down – 70%
#8 stock – sold for a loss
calls – sold for a loss
#9 stock – currently up + 6%
#10 stock – currently up + 2%
calls – essentially even (depending on entry price)
#11 stock – down 2%
calls – down 17% below recommended entry limit

And yet this “service” is being VERY heavily hyped right now by Oxford Club and Marc. To quote Marc: “The people who act on my recommendations are doing exceptionally well.” That might have been true last year – I gather it was, though his “service” was then called “Healthcare Profits Alert,” which apparently attracted few subscribers – but his results over the last 4 months don’t even remotely match up to that. Yet he says “people…are doing” (present tense) exceptionally well – which is just pure nonsense.
I’m not sure why this type of thing doesn’t actually cross the line into illegal false advertising – his “present” results certainly don’t qualify as “exceptionally well” under any usage of the English present tense. (I sent Marc a note asking why he didn’t at least wait until he had one result – one single result – that merited the hype before launching an aggressive marketing campaign – no response.) I think these guys (in the newsletter business) are lucky they seem to fall under SEC scrutiny (but very very rarely) rather than the FTC – which it seems like they should since they’re marketing a “product.”
Clear case of buyer beware…. The warning “past performance is no guarantee of future results” has never been truer.

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ggswift
August 5, 2015 10:53 am
Reply to  Observer

Seems that you can lose your money , “Lightning Fast!”

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SoGiAm
Irregular
August 5, 2015 11:12 am
Reply to  ggswift

Hi Gerald! Interested in biotechnology? We’d be pleased to have you join us on the current biotech thread here: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/07/biodimsum-iii-keep-on-rockin-in-the-gummune/ Best2YaAlways_Ben

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Alison
Member
Alison
June 3, 2014 12:45 am

I also would like to know why it is legal to state that the service has had 100% gains every 4 months in the year he has been doing this. He charts company after company that he predicted correctly.

Observer
Irregular
Observer
June 4, 2014 9:15 pm
Reply to  Alison

Alison: Marc Lichtenfeld is talking about his results during the year 2013 – his “service” was actually called “Healthcare Profits Alert” at that time. I have no way to check his claims, so I have to take it (absent evidence otherwise) that he is at least being somewhat accurate. Because the service was not attracting enough subscribers, Marc’s service was “rebranded” in Feb. 2014 as “Lightning Trend Trader.” Whether this makes it a “new” service, or just an essentially uninterrupted continuation of the old one – well, certainly new subscribers can only go by “Lightning Trend Trader” results to judge performance.
My complaint (in recent e-mails to Marc and Oxford Club) is with his claim in his promotional hype (I’ve been getting it several times daily – same recorded presentation by Marc) that his subscribers “are doing” (present tense) “exceptionally well.” As I wrote in my e-mails, if that’s not fraud, it’s borderline fraud in my humble opinion. (And I had pretty direct knowledge of the SEC case against Porter Stansbury in which he was convicted of fraud in like 2007 and fined $1.5 million. The circumstances are vastly different, but I personally think the underlying principle of truth in advertising is the same. Unfortunately, the SEC gets involved in this kind of thing almost never. So, as Travis knows, newsletter publishers get away with this kind of thing all the time.)

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ecraig
Irregular
ecraig
June 3, 2014 10:44 am

Found this post from Observer useful info. Does anyone have insights on the most recent Lichtenfeld promo of 3 bio techs? My summary below:
Mark Lichtenfeld is promoting with Oxford Club his ‘Lightening Trend Trader’ strategy for a $1495 VIP service. His ‘lightening strike’ is a catalytic event driving average 100% growth every 4 months, mainly bio techs. Currently, he is promoting 3 opportunities to entice new subscribers:
First is a $6 billion California-based ‘team player’ (collaboration agreements with AstroZenica, Biogen, Bristol Meyers Squib, Eli-Lilley, ..Genzyme and GlaxoSmithKline), and a pipeline of 28 cardiovascular, neurological and metabolic diseases, as well as cancer,
Second is his ‘home run play’, a small-cap lung and liver cancer treatment company with ‘incredibly positive clinical phase results’, which recently began phase 3 trials on its catalyst – a colorectal cancer treatment which has ‘already happened’, promising a doubling or 200% or more….
The third promoted company is a California company with ‘182’ staff, revolutionizing how our bodies fight cancer. Purportedly, Institutional investors like Blackrock and Vanguard have taken ‘big’ positions.
The promo finishes by holding out the promise of a $973 million company with more clinical drugs in development ‘than you can imagine’, expected to triple.
It would be nice when the Gumshoe sleuth returns from holidays, to hear what he thinks of the Lichtenfeld performance record, and whether he can tease out some of these firms awaiting their ‘lightning strike’.

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
June 3, 2014 11:18 am
Reply to  ecraig

Lichtenfeld has been all over the map in terms of what kinds of stocks he teases, from biotechs to more staid income investments. Haven’t looked at these yet, though the first one is very likely Isis Pharmaceuticals… which was a $6 billion company three months ago but is a $3 billion company now.

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april39
Member
June 4, 2014 6:43 pm

Living near San Diego I bought on the news @ $27, sold @ $40 then watched it soar to $60 saying ” You fool” all the way up. However a couple weeks ago I saw it @ $ 23 so rebought planning on selling around $40. It’s hitting a lot of resistance trying to make $30 so we shall see.

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april39
Member
June 5, 2014 2:58 pm
Reply to  april39

As usual 75 yr.old. CFIDS me left out ISIS which hit $30 today. I’ll put in a stop and watch 6/5/2014. jla

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Observer
Irregular
Observer
June 4, 2014 9:50 pm
Reply to  ecraig

Craig: See my comment above to Alison. I can’t easily connect the descriptions you mention with any companies Marc has recommended in Lightning Trend Trader – though it’s a little hard wading through all of his “alerts” to try to find wording that might match your summaries. If he has actually recommended any of those companies, they quickly dropped out of his “portfolio” when they hit their 25% sell stops (I have copies of every one of his recommendations). He has definitely not recommended ISIS Pharmaceuticals as part of “Lightning Trend Trader.” Since he has been doing so abysmally with biotech companies, Marc has recently added an energy services company to his picks (up a few cents since his recommendation).
He wrote today that he “should” have a new pick out “next week” after more research. Doesn’t sound like that would be one of the four “opportunities” you mention. At this point, find it hard to imagine why anyone would want to pay $1,495 for Marc’s string of losers (I’m still in my “trial period,” so can get a refund). Marc runs at least two other services at Oxford Club – but I have no idea what his actual results might be for those.

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
June 5, 2014 10:56 am
Reply to  Observer

These teaser ad pitches sometimes include stock stories that are no longer included in the actual newsletter’s portfolio, though that’s fairly rare — stories that work to get investors’ attention and sell newsletters are re-used all the time, often for many years, though those are more typical from the newsletters that are longer-term focused. In any case, any biotech-focused newsletter that holds anything but the largest companies and uses tight trailing stops of anything less than 50% would have likely sold out of almost their entire portfolio in March or April this year.

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Observer
Irregular
Observer
June 5, 2014 12:58 pm

Lightning Trend Trader focuses on small companies with new products in R&D, and uses a 25% trailing stop – and suffered the fate noted by Travis for biotechs in March/April and even May. Several of Oxford Club’s “premium” services have found it impossible to live up to their widely exaggerated hype this year, even outside the biotech sector. Alex Green’s “True Value Alert” is another (like Lightning Trend Trader) that in 2014 has vastly underperformed its hype to “provide dozens of opportunities to double your money all year long.” It hasn’t provided a SINGLE one in months.

Mike
Guest
Mike
January 24, 2015 4:17 pm