by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | July 11, 2014 1:22 pm
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Someone whose commentary I like to read is Armstrong economics. If he is right in his analysis (and his data net is wide and deep), then Europe is in deep trouble as countries try to desperately hunt taxes as their sovereign debt spirals out of control. The net result is capital is going into hiding – off the grid, and the economies are sinking even further, so governments raise more taxes and austerity measures, etc. It is a downward spiral, and in the end the global flow of money is heading in our direction. No-ones economy is actually improving, but the Europeans are going to be the ones to bolster OUR stock market. Perhaps there’s may rise temporarily, but I wouldn’t trust it. We are the least bad of many lousy economies.
Travis, Happy Anniversary – Remember not to fall for the bait “I don’t want anything, I don’t want to go anywhere or do anything” it’s just a trap. Men aren’t the smartest but we do learn from experience.
Happy Anniversary, Travis.
“It seems a little crazy that we’re hitting all-time highs in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a time when individual investors are relatively bearish and getting more so”
Contrarians would point to that as a buy signal, wouldn’t they? I’m waiting for the proverbial encounter with the cab driver or barber enthusiastically sharing his latest stock tip before I start going to cash.
I’m fairly new at this game but I follow your logic Travis. I had to laugh to because as I opened the email I was drinking a Stella Artois to celebrate a Belgian friend’s birthday, feeling guilty knowing Budweiser owned it. Now I am much happier knowing it’s Belgian after all. My European holdings are doing well but they are actually multinationals so maybe that makes the difference. Do have a wonderful anniversary and as a woman I think Kipley is on the money.
About a year ago I thought some European countries were too badly thought of, including Italy, Greece, and Russia. Switzerland also was selling at what seemed a low P/E. I bought EWI, an Italian ETF, at $12.50, and sure enough, it trundled up to >$18 this June. Now you’ve explained to me, Travis, why it fell 10% recently. Greece (GREK) was more of a roller coaster, and I stop out whenever it falls below its SMA, so I’m out right now. Russia (RBL) had a P/E of <5 (!) but still managed to lose ground owing to the Ukrainian turmoil, but it is up >3% from when I bought it in late Feb. Switzerland (FSZ) was up >20% since I bought it last Sept., but again, it’s been sinking recently. I take heart that you’re thinking of joining such things, Travis, and maybe I’ll invest in a contra-Euro fund as a hedge. Or maybe you’re late to the party and we should both get out! Hard to know…
Could be , I’m hoping for a touch more panic…
Happy Anniversary, Travis!
I think your logic is good here and have put HEDJ on my watch list. The companies you listed include some I have looked at but not yet bought. Of course, I know very little and would not recommend anyone follow my advice! (LOL)
Thanks Travis, HEDJ looks like a Wisdom Tree Fund worth watching to see if it holds at a support level and look at the near term trend of the markets. Looks like the summer may be a time of fear for the public and may be a buying opportunity, though as some of your observers imply, there are opportunities hard to locate and economies that are looking more like sinkholes.
Any thoughts on FEZ ??
I took the plunge and bought HEDJ early in June. I am down 4%, but am in for the hedge aspect against the Euro, which will develop eventually. In the long run, a dollar or two in the share price is worth paying rather than miss this train, which may be pulling out of the station.