JZ musings

August 26, 2014

This board was set up to consolidate the thoughts/questions/replies from a much appreciated contributor. JZstoxx.
Please respect that he has limited time, so keep it pertinent.
Enjoy all ye who enter here !

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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102 Comments on " JZ musings"

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Jeffrey M
Irregular
820

Hi JZ, do you have a view on BDSI? Drug is alternative to avoid opiod dependence; seems to be a good amount of institutional support

JZstoxx
Member
338

Sorry Danger, I don’t know BDSI and I don’t have time to investigate its science.
Just from chart technicals a low bid b/w $9.50 -$10.50 would be a good entry.
Best of Luck.

Alan Harris
Guest
0

Please remember what I said above, and keep it pertinent ie ON topic. All else goes here: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/07/microblog-politics-rights-religion-sex-and-investing-other-unmentionable-subjects/

DBMD
Irregular
1096
I posted this on the oxidation site for Immunovaccine. For Survivac I found an enrollment for a phase1/2 study that was closed with no results posted. It seems the company corroborates with othe co’s for vaccine production usinf their carrier. I look forward to some of your postings, and did benefit on your DRTX advice in the past. Hopefully Dr KSS will look at your stuff and give you an expert opinion. I’m not so sure about cancer vaccines working as there already is an immune response. “We’ve talked about vaccines for cancer, and gene therapy seems a better option.… Read more »
JZstoxx
Member
338

Tx DBMD, my science advisor already said no to IMV, apparently for similar reasons as you have stated…. Onwards and Upwards.

DBMD
Irregular
1096

I think you will do well with that

LongOnLife
Irregular
724

Travis,
Is there a way to list these side boards on a menu accessible to irregulars? I often have a hard time remembering what the board is called to do a search for them. Sometimes I can grab on to a recent post in the recent posts column but a menu of choices would be easier and quicker to utilize.

Thanks for all you do!

Alan Harris
Guest
0

Denis: Theres a simple solution. Go to the manage the subscriptions box just below the typing box. There theres a list of all you are subscribed to with click access.

hipockets
Irregular
1192
Alan’s idea can be improved upon slightly by going to the “Manage my subscriptions” link, clicking on it, and then bookmarking the resulting page. Incidentally, holding down the “Ctrl” key and then pressing the “End” key goes to the bottom of the page, and ”Ctrl”+”Home” goes to the top. I think Alan pointed this out eons ago. …..well. maybe not eons…. Travis, I would REALLY like to have the ability to search the whole site from within the site, even though one can use Google** with the search criteria “ site:www.stockgumshoe.com {word being searched}”. Depending on the word being searched,… Read more »
LongOnLife
Irregular
724

Thanks Alan and HiPockets. Your advice is very helpful. I support Hi Pockets request for the ability to search across multiple blogs, Travis. Such trivial things in the big picture as we seemingly are never satisfied. That is the seed of innovation.

Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
Admin
8126

My tech contractors are trying to come up with a better search that gets into comments much better, don’t know how long it will take but we do hope to improve that. Thanks!

EricS
Guest
0

Great to see your own thread here. Have been following in gummyland since Dec and,investing in biotech for about ten years. This is my first blogging attempt. Wanting to buy about 1000 shares of GILD probably by selling some PUTS. Any thoughts about what month and strike price might make a good entry?
Appreciately,
Eric

JZstoxx
Member
338

Eric I don’t sell puts on GILD, I only play the call side on pull backs.. Why don’t you give me your best thought on month and strike and ill toss it into my Q3-Option software and see what it says ,,, Cheers

JZstoxx
Member
338

sometimes I have to wittle down the numbers and try to find the best month and price based on risk/reward, volatility, success probability, etc

EricS
Guest
0
Greetings JZ Appreciate you willingness to assist me since I don’t consider myself to be adept at selling PUTS . I’ve been tracking Sept,(106 & 107 strike price), Oct (105 & 110), & Nov(105 & 110) PUTS. Of course I would like best to sell on a pull back in order to take advantage of increased implied volatility. As of today’s close I’d be inclined to sell either the Oct 110 at @ 6.70-6.75, or sell the Nov 110 @ 8.40. But, like you, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pull back to around 90 which might make better… Read more »
Jay1
Member
43

Oops bought some Imv.v on a dip, is it not good science and stock ? I am from Canada and thought about buying some Canadian stocks too.APpreciate your thoughts and input always Jzstoxxs,thank you.

Warner
Irregular
117

Hi JZ, delighted to see your commentary. I know of your biotech credibility, however I do not know the breadth of your expertise or interest. There has been considerable commentary about GILD being at it’s peak and due for a correction while many are saying it is going to continue to new highs. Any thoughts?

ockrazor
Member
132

Thanks Alan for setting this up. Thanks JZ for sharing your musings. I look forward to contributing to this board.

rvpatel50
Member
36

Congratulations Jz. Looking forward to your perspective on different biotech. Any thoughts on mph.v? Thanks

Jay1
Member
43

Rex patel, regarding post 9, are you invested in mph.v , I just sold it for little profit, but thinking getting back in again,you can email me your thought on it at paulheir@hotmail.com if you wish.Best regards.

Alan Harris
Guest
0

The place to discuss stock is HERE so we may all benefit. Also, be careful about offering personal email addresses…… masses of crawlers out there grabbing data.

Jay1
Member
43

Thanks.

JZstoxx
Member
338

Guys I only specialize on Biotech stocks , not technology, mining, oil, etc etc.

ockrazor
Member
132

I am waiting ATHJF decision although I think it won’t move the stock much even if the results are good. I can’t believe some of these Biotechs. Reminds me of the great gene stock run in 2000. That was insane.

JZstoxx
Member
338
As for GILD im still holding some shares from $22. I strictly trade options on GILD. I said I wish not to disclose my option plays. I do think GILD has a lot more upside but I would wait to buy on the next pull back… $85-95 area. As for my option strategy I like to keep it simple and buy a basket of calls out of the money 1,2,3 and 4 months expiry on major price dips… I also trade the weekly, but not for the faint of heart. I have proprietary software that determines best price and date,… Read more »
Alan Harris
Guest
0

JZ: I appreciate what you have said about your own specific options plays and accept that. But. in general, can you say when you option and when you buy. Perhaps you can tell us, the sublties of the option vs the buy game. Thanx

JZstoxx
Member
338
Alan, I mostly use options on Indexes like IBB, QQQ and S&P, etc .. I use CALL options on large cap companies , if you time the pull backs well you get more bang for your buck… Best is to paper trade for a year until you feel comfortable with the stock or index. Start with indexes imho. On most mid-cap stocks im playing PUT options (… most are too inflated, so higher percentage of winning) Believe it or not McDonalds is one of the best stocks to play short-term and long-term calls. I will bring in a couple option… Read more »
Alan Harris
Guest
0

Excellent!! Will watch with glee. Never know, I may be capable of leaning something new yet.

ockrazor
Member
132

ACHN sure has had a nice run in accord with GILD.
No position. I missed the GILD pullback to 65 on Yellen’s comments. I pulled up all tyes of charts and on my relativity chart it was a screaming buy.

Should have used Options there.

Kris Prasad
Guest
0

SS, what does your chart say now? On a previous blog, I am not sure which, Fisherofmen gave a link to chart w Slow Stochiastics and Force Index (not sure what they mean) It was on Stockcharts.com and I did lose the link. Is there something similar you could point me to?

JZstoxx
Member
338

ACHN rumored buyout by GILD… sit tight we’ll catch the next wave.

arch1
Irregular
7730

JZ What is your rating of buyout happening and possible time frame you think likely. I know GILD has prospect of sitting on a pile of cash that needs investing or stockholders will be yelling for big dividend. Any possibility of Gild buying BMY? Thanks for agreeing to help us after all the abuse you took. I took a very small position in ACHN as a tickler/reminder,,,,
wish now I had picked call instead of put.

JZstoxx
Member
338

Frank too many targets for GILD.. I like Regeneron and Anylam as a fit.. I don’t like to speculate as to who buys who, rather look at a good candidate and sit on it till the right suitor comes along.

JZstoxx
Member
338

BMY may work but I think its way to expensive for GILD at present

hipockets
Irregular
1192

Thanks for your piost, s s. Would you tell us about your relativity chart? And what charts you use and where you get them? Thanks!

ockrazor
Member
132

Pockets the Rel chart for Gild is at High. Can it go higher, sure but its up there. If I could figure out dropbox or how to post I would. I thought I was somewhat tech savvy too.

twa14
Member
232

JZ
Do you have any thoughts on Antisense? acromegaly trial details tomorrow

JZstoxx
Member
338

Nope, its their 2nd punt at getting around toxicity issues,, they better get it right this time. Fingers crossed.

ockrazor
Member
132

Looks like Antisense news out .

Per relativity this is what I build. They aren’t exact as ranges can always expand but it gives me a good sense of where we really are.

http://www.zealllc.com/2004/relativitypf.htm

I am not a subscriber to Zeal

JZstoxx
Member
338

S S I thought ANP news due on Monday ???

Alan Harris
Guest
0

WTF S S ??? You cant be on the G&T’s at 9.22 am. surely 🙂

ockrazor
Member
132

You are right I am wrong. News not out yet. My bad

bwd1up
Irregular
181

Not much happening in anticipation of ANP’s upcoming data release.

JZ, what are your thoughts if they do get it right this time? I own the effer at .22, ugh…

Alan Harris
Guest
0

Ive put mine as a sell @ 16 on OZ market. Rather 16 than 4. Ill settle for losing out on 18.

Alan Harris
Guest
0

ps Youll probably buy back at 15 once profit takers have had their fill, if you really love the company…..or 4 if it stumbles.

JZstoxx
Member
338

I would like to see it double very quickly, then it should send the sp north of $0.50 in the near future and set it up for further financing, imho.

ISIS already showed success with similar antisense therapies.
They showed GHr is expressed in the liver, which is an ideal target tissue for antisense drugs as they accumulate in the liver at high concentrations.

Lets see if ATL1103 reduces sIGF-I , on Monday we should expect news.

Alan Harris
Guest
0

Why???? Im not doubting, but I do need to know your reasoning. As you said earlier ‘they better get it right this time’. Why are you sooooo sure they have? Should cancel my sell?

JZstoxx
Member
338
Alan im not sure at all if ANP has got it right this time around… Its not a difficult target, im sure that’s why Dr Kss introduced this company, its has good probability of success. With antisense drugs its always been about toxicity ISIS also had toxicity concerns several years ago but they overcame them and had their antisense therapy approved. In no way am I comparing ISIS to ANP… if you look back at my posts on some long lost thread I stated that ANP’s chances are much better than 50% at succeeding. No guarantees only a position not… Read more »
JZstoxx
Member
338

I also made calls to ANP brokers and financiers if u recall.. they are ready to finance once phase 2 news is good.

JZstoxx
Member
338

I know Dr Kss has introduced and provided much in depth research about ANP , I am sure he has shared his reasons for being long in detail.

As for myself I don’t think its a difficult target to achieve, yes their is toxicity issues but I think that with ISIS in the background as a successful knowledge base in antsense drugs its a fair to good bet, imho

Alan Harris
Guest
0

Thanks JZ

ockrazor
Member
132

Bradley I bought around there and added at .12. Alan I was real fired up this for some good news and jumped the gone. I saw it bid to.15 in Oz so figured news out. I will be drinking a couple G&T this weekend. Ohhh heck maybe tonight.

ockrazor
Member
132

Wow some bad typing above on my part. Jz thanks for reiterating you points. I definitely recall you saying they had financing in the wings. Thanks for color.

ockrazor
Member
132

They lift your offer Alan?

Alan Harris
Guest
0

For reasons I dont understand, I cannot place a market order on OZ. I set a mere $0.16 limit…….it didnt fill. So I’m still a reluctant owner waiting for the Monday (sunday night) news. Fortunately only a small position, but frankly Id prefer my money in the bank when waiting for a binary event. Still this is their second shot on goal, so they should have learned a lot from the earlier trial and wouldnt be wasting their money if the first results showed it was hopeless/dangerous. Fingers crossed.

bwd1up
Irregular
181

Alan, can you explain “binary event”, to me its zero’s and one’s 😉
Someone else mentioned that term and I didn’t get it…probably a macro event, crash etc..

Elliot
Member
501

a binary event is an event which can only lead to two options: one is bad (shares will crash), one is good (shares will presumably rise). So in biotech, having a clinical trial readout is generally a binary event – there are only two options for what will happen. Same as having a drug up for FDA approval. Of course there can also be a little bit of gray area, but for the most part it is a good or a bad (a 1 or a 0 per say).

ScorpioRising
Irregular
1019

Bradley, there’s only 10 kinds of people in this world: those that understand binary and those that don’t. Being a software engineer working on embedded systems, who deals with 1’s and 0’s every day, this is outrageously funny to me.

Alan Harris
Guest
0

Its not 1 or and zero’s….its won or your left with zero 🙂

Alan Harris
Guest
0

All my I O’s are usually follwed by a U