written by reader JZ musings

August 26, 2014

This board was set up to consolidate the thoughts/questions/replies from a much appreciated contributor. JZstoxx.
Please respect that he has limited time, so keep it pertinent.
Enjoy all ye who enter here !

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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tfris
Member
tfris
August 29, 2014 9:15 am

JZ
What are your thoughts on Benitec and what prices would you be looking at to pick up more shares if you are still long.

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JZstoxx
JZstoxx
August 29, 2014 9:42 am
Reply to  tfris

Tim can I get back to you in about 7-10 days I have to prepare proposals this labour day long weekend for a biz trip next week
Plus, I would also like to do some further DD

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JZstoxx
JZstoxx
August 29, 2014 9:43 am
Reply to  JZstoxx

Please remind me next Friday, ill be back then and will try to help

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tfris
Member
tfris
August 29, 2014 9:47 am

Sure, thanks.

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c193
Irregular
c193
August 29, 2014 12:23 pm

Safe travels, JZ. I appreciate all your comments on GILD above. (I haven’t been on the site for the last few days so I haven’t been keeping up!). Everyone have a great holiday!

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arch1
Member
August 29, 2014 6:38 pm

Since I may have confused by an episode of frivolity most of our choices in life are binary;
Sink or Swim, Live or Die, Yes or No On or Off,Hold or Sell Perform in the chamber or relinquish the Seat. In practice most choices have modifying circumstances,,,,such as choosing “None of the Above”.

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alanS
Irregular
alanS
August 31, 2014 2:56 am

I was a bit surprised to read Matthew Smith’s SA piece in SA this morning [http://seekingalpha.com/article/2459705-todays-market-red-hot-biotech-and-big-pharma-names-to-watch] arguing that PFE wants ANZ so badly that they will have another go at the acquisition, even with the stakes much higher now. He makes it sound plausible, but I would expect Pfizer to go after more substantial fare than ANZ. Or am I missing something?
PS: I’ve just recently joined this irreverent band of Irregulars, and have found myself seriously outclassed in many respects, so please have patience with my inexperience and ignorance.
Alan Sponberg (aka steviMT)

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arch1
Member
August 31, 2014 1:26 pm
Reply to  alanS

Alan I see a lot of speculation ,, or worse,, being presented as knowledge. It is best to have knowledge of presenters track record in such things. Caveat Emptor ?

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alanS
Irregular
alanS
August 31, 2014 4:47 pm
Reply to  arch1

Frank—thanks for your reply and sound advice. Be assured that I would never act precipitously on anything I read (especially on SA) from someone I’m not already familiar with. Listed below are the basic DD steps I would normally take in running down analysis and rumors, recognizing that M&A rumors of the sort in Matthew’s article are especially difficult to assess. I’m sure there’s more I could do, and I’d be interested and very appreciative if you or others have suggestions for further steps to add to this very general and ever-evolving list.

1. With a SA article, the first thing I check is the number of “followers” the person has—3430 in Matthew Smith’s case. I took that to mean he might have some credibility as an analyst.
2. Digging deeper, the second thing I do is review whatever Morningstar has on the stock(s) involved, taking careful note especially of the MC, the general financial data, the M* analyst report, if any, and any any other data points that seem relevant.
3. Next I do a general search through gummy-land to see if there is anything that might support or undermine the speculation.
4. Then I go back and to reassess the author’s reasoning in light of what I have learned.
Suggestions for where I might look into next?
My preliminary conclusions in this instance: Matthews seems credible; his case for PFE’s need to diversify through strategic acquisition appears plausible; but ANZ as a candidate seems unlikely, especially given the previous failed merger, ANZ’s rich(er) valuation, coupled with it’s inherent weakness—all that despite his perception that ANZ is getting bid up in anticipation of another PFE buyout attempt. What is the attraction to PFE? Why is Matthews so convinced that PFE “needs” ANZ specifically. There must be something there, given the earlier buy-out attempt, but I’m still not seeing it.

steviMT (aka Alan Sponberg: i’m using my handle to avoid being confused with Alan Harris—don’t want to embarrass him as the source of my nube questions, nor do I want want the pressure of living up to any expectations of his experience and humor.)

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arch1
Member
August 31, 2014 5:55 pm
Reply to  alanS

stevi It seems you are using proper caution,,,it takes some time to see how well anyone’s advice holds up. As to PFE….ANZ I am ignorant of chance of merger,,,only a general feeling that much of present merger mania/acquisition is tax driven and may not be good business practice.

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SoGiAm
Irregular
February 1, 2016 12:36 am
Reply to  alanS

FYI-Matthew Smith https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/matthew-smith Best2You-Ben

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Frenchy
Irregular
Frenchy
August 31, 2014 8:33 pm

Posted this on the Oxidation thread as well… โ€œTrading halt on shares of Antisense (ANP / ATHJF). Securities will be placed in a trading halt session at the request of the company, pending the release of an announcement by the company. Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in Trading Halt Session State until the earlier of commencement of trading on Wednesday, 3 Sep 2014 or when the announcement is released to the marketโ€

Anyone has history or experience on this sort of โ€œpro-activeโ€ action and whether it means bad news? I am quite exposed to this stock currentlyโ€ฆ

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Alan Harris
Guest
Alan Harris
September 1, 2014 3:27 am
Reply to  Frenchy

Ah….. generally it can go either way. But this may be a special case. The trial results are due today, but as its Labor Day in US (so they cant trade) they ‘may’ be waiting.