JZ musings
by | August 26, 2014 5:25 pm
This board was set up to consolidate the thoughts/questions/replies from a much appreciated contributor. JZstoxx.
Please respect that he has limited time, so keep it pertinent.
Enjoy all ye who enter here !
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/08/microblog-jz-musings/
JZ
What are your thoughts on Benitec and what prices would you be looking at to pick up more shares if you are still long.
Tim can I get back to you in about 7-10 days I have to prepare proposals this labour day long weekend for a biz trip next week
Plus, I would also like to do some further DD
Please remind me next Friday, ill be back then and will try to help
Sure, thanks.
Safe travels, JZ. I appreciate all your comments on GILD above. (I haven’t been on the site for the last few days so I haven’t been keeping up!). Everyone have a great holiday!
Since I may have confused by an episode of frivolity most of our choices in life are binary;
Sink or Swim, Live or Die, Yes or No On or Off,Hold or Sell Perform in the chamber or relinquish the Seat. In practice most choices have modifying circumstances,,,,such as choosing “None of the Above”.
I was a bit surprised to read Matthew Smith’s SA piece in SA this morning [http://seekingalpha.com/article/2459705-todays-market-red-hot-biotech-and-big-pharma-names-to-watch] arguing that PFE wants ANZ so badly that they will have another go at the acquisition, even with the stakes much higher now. He makes it sound plausible, but I would expect Pfizer to go after more substantial fare than ANZ. Or am I missing something?
PS: I’ve just recently joined this irreverent band of Irregulars, and have found myself seriously outclassed in many respects, so please have patience with my inexperience and ignorance.
Alan Sponberg (aka steviMT)
Alan I see a lot of speculation ,, or worse,, being presented as knowledge. It is best to have knowledge of presenters track record in such things. Caveat Emptor ?
Frank—thanks for your reply and sound advice. Be assured that I would never act precipitously on anything I read (especially on SA) from someone I’m not already familiar with. Listed below are the basic DD steps I would normally take in running down analysis and rumors, recognizing that M&A rumors of the sort in Matthew’s article are especially difficult to assess. I’m sure there’s more I could do, and I’d be interested and very appreciative if you or others have suggestions for further steps to add to this very general and ever-evolving list.
1. With a SA article, the first thing I check is the number of “followers” the person has—3430 in Matthew Smith’s case. I took that to mean he might have some credibility as an analyst.
2. Digging deeper, the second thing I do is review whatever Morningstar has on the stock(s) involved, taking careful note especially of the MC, the general financial data, the M* analyst report, if any, and any any other data points that seem relevant.
3. Next I do a general search through gummy-land to see if there is anything that might support or undermine the speculation.
4. Then I go back and to reassess the author’s reasoning in light of what I have learned.
Suggestions for where I might look into next?
My preliminary conclusions in this instance: Matthews seems credible; his case for PFE’s need to diversify through strategic acquisition appears plausible; but ANZ as a candidate seems unlikely, especially given the previous failed merger, ANZ’s rich(er) valuation, coupled with it’s inherent weakness—all that despite his perception that ANZ is getting bid up in anticipation of another PFE buyout attempt. What is the attraction to PFE? Why is Matthews so convinced that PFE “needs” ANZ specifically. There must be something there, given the earlier buy-out attempt, but I’m still not seeing it.
steviMT (aka Alan Sponberg: i’m using my handle to avoid being confused with Alan Harris—don’t want to embarrass him as the source of my nube questions, nor do I want want the pressure of living up to any expectations of his experience and humor.)
stevi It seems you are using proper caution,,,it takes some time to see how well anyone’s advice holds up. As to PFE….ANZ I am ignorant of chance of merger,,,only a general feeling that much of present merger mania/acquisition is tax driven and may not be good business practice.
FYI-Matthew Smith https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/matthew-smith Best2You-Ben
Posted this on the Oxidation thread as well… “Trading halt on shares of Antisense (ANP / ATHJF). Securities will be placed in a trading halt session at the request of the company, pending the release of an announcement by the company. Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in Trading Halt Session State until the earlier of commencement of trading on Wednesday, 3 Sep 2014 or when the announcement is released to the market”
Anyone has history or experience on this sort of “pro-active” action and whether it means bad news? I am quite exposed to this stock currently…
Ah….. generally it can go either way. But this may be a special case. The trial results are due today, but as its Labor Day in US (so they cant trade) they ‘may’ be waiting.
JZ can you shed some light on post 420 by Kenny G ( post 490\491) on concerning RA Capital and Sabby:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/08/microblog-oxidation-for-health-physical-and-fiscal/?utm_source=81714kss&utm_campaign=DrKSS&utm_medium=email
So odd. ANP halted in OZ yet ATHJF is trading in the US. Need to call fidelity on this one. Then again penny stock are subject to all kind of odd rules.
No real answer out of Fido. I wouldn’t be surprised if they halted the stock as well as potentially break the trades that have gone up. I am not going to touch it as broken trades aren’t fun to deal with at all.
trading on Etrade as well
Jz any thought on anp results. Do you think the company and results are a farce like others have observed. As always I appreciate everyone’s opinion.
Antisense:
ATL1103 Phase II Trial – Successful Efficacy Results
• Primary efficacy endpoint met with a statistically significant reduction of sIGF-I
levels of 26% at the 400mg/week dose (P<0.0001; highly significant)
• 36% average reduction in sIGF-I for lower body weight patients
• Positioned to move into Phase III stage of development
• Safe and well tolerated with no serious adverse events related to dosing reported
Yet curiously the price has hardly moved in Oz ?
Sorry Guys, apparently this is old news given KSS comments on the Oxidation thread. Seems like, even when you win you lose with bio.
Yeah Alan. Nothing like taking all the risk and getting no reward.
I am still long until I get more information.
Hi JZ and welcome back to Gumshoeland, glad to have you back. In light of Canadian Resverlogix Corp. (RVX) latest study, is anyone in your circles tracking them? I believe a while back in an old thread that Dr KSS had not spoken favorably of them but could this be a short term player? Thanks for all you do and I will post this as well on the “Oxidation” thread and see if the good Dr responds.
News: “RVX-208 Leads to a 77% Relative Risk Reduction of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus”
http://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=70038014&qm_symbol=RVX
Hi JZ,
Have you any experience with Market Edge (provided free to Schwab trading customers?
Liam
JZ, I may be stopped out on GILD Friday, with a nice profit. Any particular reentry point you are seeing? Also, I stopped out on DRTX this week. Thoughts on reentry target for us gummies?
Hi JZ
Can I get your thoughts on Benitec, are you still long on it and if so at what prices you might look for to add shares?
Thank you,
Tim
Yep, stopped out on GILD this AM. My nibbles went out at profits of $23 , $15 and $10 per share. Didn’t have a huge amount, but happy with what I made.