The Gain from Pain Mainly Explained
by DrKSSMDPhD | September 7, 2014 10:02 pm
SECOND IN A SERIES
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/09/microblog-the-gain-from-pain-mainly-explained/
Radius Health(RDUS) breaking out today on heavy volume.
Cheers,Glenn
$ACT surges on news it is officially in merger discussions with $PFE. Predicted here 2 weeks ago.
Nice call on that one Doc Kss.
Cheers,Glenn
If PFE’s interest in ACT was declared before the tax law was changed yesterday I wonder if they would be grandfathered in so they can get the inversion benefit of a company based in Ireland?
Do you feel the fed inversion backlash is all bluster?I am long ACT and MDT and hope that it doesn’t throw a wrench into any mergers. Inversion is a part of the law and
I don’t see how it can be “cracked down on” absent an act of congress.
Oh, I see, 🙂 . Thanks Diana!
Here is your answer
http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2645.aspx
Thanks Howard. Dated yesterday from the U. S. Department of the Treasury:
“Specifically, the Notice eliminates certain techniques inverted companies currently use to access the overseas earnings of foreign subsidiaries of the U.S. company that inverts without paying U.S. tax. Today’s actions apply to deals closed today or after today.”
Surely PFE knows about this so if they’re still kicking the tires at ACT, the tax inversion wasn’t so important to them.
I strenuously question whether Treasury’s actions are legal. Good ol’ Obama….ruling by fiat, not with Congress backing. As I see it, Congress would be happy to fix the problem, which is that under Obama we have become a tax hellhole. There would be 85 per cent non-partisan accord on revising the tax code. Obama doesn’t want that because gridlock is how he likes it. Someone will launch a legal challenge, and given the Roberts court’s corporate biases, those challenges will prevail..
Yes, I hope someone will launch a legal challenge but it will be expensive and time consuming – we’ll see if anyone is willing to go through that. We need a President who likes capitalism!
Diana, President Reagan died a while ago. Your next best bet is Larry Kudlow – LOL.
Hmmm President Kudlow, that doesn’t sound bad!
Taking the emotion out of the issue…..I looked at the underlying sections of the Internal Revenue Code cited by the IRS in issuing revised rules and it seems to me that the agency is acting well within the scope of the explicit authorities that Congress granted to the Treasury Secretary in implementing the pertinent sections of the Code. I would be cautious about leaping to a conclusion that the new rules are illegal. Whether the revised rules on inversions are good, wise, workable, or effective, and how the underlying statute should be changed with respect to taxation of overseas profits earned by domestic corporations, are different questions, perhaps best debated on another thread. The history of the growth of executive rulemaking by Administrations of both parties, as federal legislation in many areas has become ever more complex since the mid-20th century is quite fascinating (at least to wonks like me). When placed in a larger perspective, today’s rule change isn’t particularly extraordinary in novelty, scope or impact, in my view, nor is there any evidence I can see that it contravenes the intent of the Internal Revenue Code.
D Brown, I’m sure you’re right but the ruling doesn’t address the kind of tax reform we need if we are going to prosper as a nation. Yesterday, I think some of us just needed to vent our frustration with an administration inimical to business, capitalism, Congress, apple pie, and the American way of life.
Diana C – Thanks. Nothing wrong with venting, of course, but if one wishes to vent about the long-obvious unmet need for tax reform, the only folks with the power to do that are 535 Members of Congress who can’t agree on whether the sun rises in the morning. If predicting a tax policy outcome is germane to an investment decision, as it might be in the biotech world because a disproportionate number of inversions have taken place in the pharmaceutical industry, I’ll stick with a “just the facts, ma’am” approach every time.
Very smart, D Brown!
Topped off AKAO holdings off today after bounce off 52 week low on low volume.
Will sit back and wait on this one.
Cheers,Glenn
Nice bounce back up from CTIX from yesterday.Will be interesting last 3 months of the year for this company starting with Brilacidin soon.
Cheers,Glenn
I like the CTIX stock chart over the past three months–especially this last one. In comparison to most of small biotech of late, the chart is looking truly stellar. It’s possible that we are nearing a very nice inflection point. I would not be shocked to see the sp move very suddenly at some point in the near future to nearly twice the current price.
Agree. However, it appears that Menon has recently sold 10 million shares. It’s a new transaction this week, and he is now down to holding 21 million from 31 million. Odd, and despite this, the share price has continued climbing. He now owns 18 per cent of CTIX, down from about 24 per cent. Is this move to fulfill a precondition for uplisting or institutional ownership? Not sure why the move really. Seems odd that he would part with shares right now when log-phase growth is hinted at nearing unless he has to for some reason. The amount he held was extraordinary.
There is a new Dr,KSS post at http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/09/microblog-tetchy-on-tekmira-time-to-short-this-rnai-play
Dr. KSS,
That graph you posted on the #1 problem in medicine is quite telling. And we definitely are on a slippery slope with more and more physicians quitting practice due to gov’t mandates of Obamacare.
Intriguing potential trade play coming up on Israeli biotech Alcobra ($ADHD).
Alcobra is developing metadoxine, a derivative of vitamin B6, for treatment of adult ADHD with predominant inattentiveness. It has now completed a phase 2 study at 2 Israeli sites (risk of non-reproducible effect, risk of effect having no external validity because people have ethnic neuropsychiatric variations) showing a weak advantage and a phase 3 for which data will be released next week.
Metadoxine is in use throughout the ex-USA world for alcohol acute intoxication and alcohol hepatitis. It seems to hasten degradation of ethanol and limit fatty changes incurred by the liver as a consequence of ethanol injury.
Metadoxine also has an action of antagonizing 5-HT2b receptors, and this effect seems to shift the glutamate-GABA axis more toward GABA (relaxation). Now, why this should help in inattentive ADHD but not hyperactive adult ADHD…that makes no sense to me.
I predict perhaps 40 per cent chance of phase 3 success, and that if there is success, it will be a small effect size. Even so, good news will launch share price, in that this is like a vitamin, not a controlled substance, and something prescribers would feel safer giving out than amphetamines for adult ADHD. In fact, why metadoxine needs to be by rx only makes little sense to me.
At halftime, every issue I hold is in the green, some of them quite nicely, except for red-ink-awash $BTEBY!
$NBY in the red, but by <1 cent.
Fine northward moves by $ACT, $ATNM, $CTIX, $CELG, $GILD.
Things look good for CELG's new Crohn's disease drug, which would let many get away fro TNF inhibitors (which raise risk of cancer and infection).
Never fear Dr. KSS, for in a few moments I believe Dr. French takes the floor in Boston and with his gift for gab, the share price should make a move. If anyone I sitting on the fence regarding BTEBY, I would act fast as the CEO is about to perform his magic.
Ah, but will it b the same old mantra or a second patient?
Interesting that Dr. French is in Boston – RA Capital is also in Boston. I wonder if RAC knows he’s there. Now would be a good time for RAC to get on his arse about lack of progress.
I would guess same ole mantra Alan but one can hope.
Doc if you haven’t see it what do you make of the CTIX update? It’s a bit long to cut and paste, it seems to be moving shares higher.
Matt: I am favorable on it. Not much in it is new, but given the dearth and sloth of so many biotechs as regards providing data to shareholders, I appreciate Ehrlich doing this, and I do not feel he is being unctuous. The CEO of BeniBane, by comparison, who styles himself a “great communicator,” NEVER says ANYTHING of substance.
The primary thing new in it is that they are examining other agents acquired from PolyMedix last year for anti-Gram-negative activity, including one that may kill carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. That’s CRE, and I am glad they are dipping a toe into that. People I think have had doubts somehow raised a little by the fact that AKAO is the only bespoke CRE player, but you can believe this: CRE is the most serious gap in our drug arsenal. Why aren’t others going after it more aggressively? Think about it. What gets you CRE? (1)Being long in a hospital. (2) Having been on multiple antibiotics. If either of those apply to people, they have serious problems that are likely to kill them. YOu want to do a study of a new agent in CRE patients who are likely to die from CRE, and not die of something else. Many patients succumb to a combination of badnesses (“consultative last rites” as multiple organs go), and so finding good CRE study patients is very very hard. Moreover, whilst “MRSA” describes one kind of Staph, CRE describes a huge number of species, and among those species they have multiple mechanisms of defeating carbapenems, CRE in Turkey may differ from CRE in Greece, may differ from Phoenix may differ from Toronto.
Takeaway message: CTIX is a force to be reckoned with and is absurdly cheap here.It’s the girl who’s come of age and is still trying to get the guys to notice her, and now has shed her baby fat, had a makeover, has gotten some stunning new outfits. Soon people are going to be asking, WHY did we not notice CTIX before? I was looking to add more at $2 but am not sure it’s coming down to there again.
Sole quibble: get going on Prurisol phase 2. 60 patients double-blind crossover placebo controlled, 4 weeks pre- and post-crossover.
Dr.KSS: Since the Plazomicin trial is open label, do you expect $AKAO to give investors updates on trial results as they run the expected 360 patients through the study?
Yes, I feel they should not be tight-lipped about it. It has to be open label because the way one doses colistin is distinctive to plazomicin. Selfishly, I wish they’d include patients with seemingly colistin-resistant CRE isolates, because that’s how it is in the real world….people with CRE are getting thrown at them multiple antibiotics to which the pathogen is ostensibly resistant in hope that multiple drugs can wear it down. They have made enrollment criteria rather exclusionary for bad cardiac and pulmonary disease to keep deaths from causes other than sepsis to a minimum. But they are not madcap exclusionary like Benitec…..many of these patients will have had GI surgery. I’d expect an update at 90 patients, but it’s sooo hard to know when that will be.
Not sure where the money is, but this is a fascinating article and a fascinating approach to the eradication of many mozzy borne diseases. They have bred a load of mozzys that carry a dengue blocking bacteria and will cross breed that to other mozzies. The same could possibly be done with yellow fever etc. Egg to egg life span is a month. Frank A: yourll like this one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-29356232
Thank you Alan & you are correct ,, this approach fits my thinking that prevention is better than fixing. This really should work and I think for many other skeeter and fly borne diseases if same method extended.
$TENX Q1 CC transcript from 9/24/14: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2517795-tenax-therapeutics-tenx-ceo-john-kelley-on-q1-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?app=1&uprof=44
For eyedoc: Are you aware of any catalyst or news that may account for the impressive 8% SP pop in AERI today ? All I could find was old news related to the AERI – Deerfield Partners convertible notes financing deal reported 2 weeks ago.
I have spoken with the Durata rep in Dallas, and she says that sales are picking up and being used for skin infections and seems to be liked by several doctors there. She also mentions that some were using it for other reasons, but she could not comment on that. I will meet with her Monday to discuss how our hospital my get Dalvance. She has been stonwalled by our ID docs. I spoke with a spine and orthoPedic hospital and left information with the doctor in charge of pre-op treatments for those at risk for MRSA. The cost for Dalvance total treatment is about 3000, and the cost for a Zvyox is a little bit less at $2757.
I have not heard from Medifocus. I may try calling tomorrow.
thanks DBMD. Cheaper price than I had thought. That ID doctors are being obstructionist is way auspicious! They hate all that is good. All are hostile—-they have a monopoly on right thinking, you see, and they can’t let you in on it because you just wouldn’t understand. Cement galoshes for all in ID! D=dysphoria.
Nice work DBMD.
Thank you DBMD–nice sleuthing gumshoe! Hopefully, you get more info on Medifocus as well. Dalvance will take some time to catch on, but it will.
lawrence: I can’t find any news. No new articles in journals. National meetings are next monthk. I doubt that anyone would launch a medical drop at the recent Optometric meeting in Vegas because the Optometric scope of practice doesn’t include surgery and only some can legally treat glaucoma.
Hi Dr. – I hope all is well – great call on ESPR – wondering how much more upside is left in your view and the calendar for catalysts (positive or negative into the future).
Jonathan Casteleyn
Hi Jonathan: I tend to think its present acute run is over, though medium and longer term it has much farther to go.
Reasons now to exit:
(1) possible stalled out run
(2) concern on theoretical possible carcinogenicity risk
(3) won’t meet with FDA til next year…not ESPR’s fault. FDA makes glaciers seem high speed
(4) still has large phase 3’s to run
Reasons to stay in:
(1) doubt evidence of carcinogenicity will be found (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2435221/)
(2) rampant talk of partnering and buyouts
(3) may have to do not so many phase 3’s because of high quality and excellent design of phase 2’s
(4) of all the companies we follow here, ESPR is the likeliest to whelp a blockbuster
(5) really exceptional management crew
THIS is why Ebola kills. Hint: it’s not the virus!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-spreading-in-west-africa.html?smid=tw-nytimes&_r=1
T.I.A. (This Is Africa)
Dr KSS,
TTNP – DR KSS, did you ever hear back from the Company regarding “the how of the pellet placement’? TTNP is trading quietly around it’s yearly low. I wonder if movement will be seen closer to Phase 3 trail news after June?
Happy New 2015 Dr KSS. U R Appreciated….Thank you Lulu
Hi Lulu: Sorry, I never heard back from an email query. In the fall I had called their office and asked for a callback, but also never got one. A little odd. They just functionally seem not to do IR. The trial in question, however, had completed enrollment as of November 2014. I would anticipate data in 1Q15 from Braeburn Pharma (doing the trial, using the TTNP product), and if it is favorable, it’s not unreasonable that Braeburn would buy rights from TTNP or just flat buy out TTNP. So, though the share price of $TTNP has ebbed low, I think I’d just hold it here.
HAPPY 2015 LULU! AND HERE’s to a better year for your daughter!!!
OK, New Years Day spent writing in lotus position a new column for my beloved irregulars, with good, new stuff in it. Finished and coming to you. So, for this weekend, if there are stocks people have asked about that I have forgotten to look at, please remind me and I will dig in. I think Ben may have asked about one that I haven’t covered, but I can’t find the post in question.