by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | October 3, 2014 8:25 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/10/friday-file-hodgepodge-iron-graphene-xerox-and-some-ranting/
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Travis, thanks for the full coverage in todays irregulars post. Re the graphite scene, I have followed Myron into Lomiko which seems to have some interesting R & D projects underway in their JV. Being a new Zealand resident I tend to invest in companies a little closer to home. One graphite company which is listed on the ASX that I like is Valence Industries Limited (VXL). VXL has recently started processing old stockpiles to extract the graphite and has a number of offtake agreements in place with users. VXL is due to release a BFS for phase 2 for new plant which when the plant is built and commissioned will see the company become a significant graphite supplier with low COP. The company is also undertaking exploration on its licensed territory and initial reports have been very positive. Certainly worth a look for anybody interested to invest in a current producer.
Hi Chris, I live in Christchurch. Where do you live? Any interest in catching up?
I have been an irregular for 6 years and do lots of reading from other sources
Alan
Hi Allan, I reside in Hamilton, so little way north of you. Yes would ge good to catch up if we are travelling to through each ohers region. I have also been an irregular member for about the same time. Similarly read lots from other sources.
I’m in Melbourne if you ever cross the Tasman
thx, Travis;
I enjoy your rants and also have held off some cash for opportunities in the future. I think your logic is sound on Altius and will hold mine for the long run. I will admit that the markets have been rough lately as I tend to lean toward Canadian stocks. Close to home thing as well. Ride out the rough spots and grab bargains when they are there.
Nice post, John
Great commentary Travis. You are definitely not off your meds. The up and down nature of the stock market sure makes life interesting and provides us with potential opportunities as our favorite stocks come on sale. Of my portfolio, the ‘wildcard’ one for me is Seadrill (SDRL) – it has fallen so far so fast and must reach a bottom soon – don’t you think? It is ‘head of class’ in it’s peer group – the out-of-favour oil drillers.
Thank you for a great article, Travis.
Sure would like to know what meds you are on! I want to learn to think like you do about investing! 🙂
Thank you Travis……, those teasers often convince me into action, which I’ve taken on LLG and UEC, made a bit and took it, which was just luck on ‘ stink buys ‘
thank you for the steel, graphite/uranium lesson.
Chris, I followed Myron into Lomiko too but that holding doesn’t worry me, should it?
Cheers Lulu
HI Lulu, I honestly have no idea. I read the story about Lomiko before investing. I would be interested in Myrons updated comments at some point. Will have a look at their latest company announcements.
Travis another great and timely piece. Everyone is looking for the “holy grail” of investing.
As you know the Holy Grail was reputed to be the cup that Christ used at the last supper and was thought to have magical properties. What is not commonly known is that the cup perhaps never existed but was a wineskin that all drank from and long ago rotted away.
Such may be the case with graphite Holy Grail,, as graphite is plentiful and has many uses of which batteries are a small part. In fact graphene may best come from flakes of large size and used primarily in a new generation of computer technology. I fear the engineering has not caught up with the concept yet so personally I am not inclined to put a large investment in graphite until manufacturing world wide shows a true recovery. Thanks for all the work you do in deciphering the market & news letters for us.
By the way I still hold some stocks that fell 90% as well as some I am down 50% or more trying to catch a falling knife that fell further.
Blather on Travis! Damn you must do the heck of a lot of reading and mulling. No wonder youve grown a beard….doubt you could find time to shave.
What Id really like to see somewhere on GS is a discussion about how to structure a retirement portfolio. Not the tickers (though that will inevitably follow) but how to shape it to achieve a variety of objectives. Yes I suppose I could buy a book, but Ive come to trust you and Im really comfortable with your writing style and the feedback from our intelligent contributors.
Hi Alan,
I’m nowhere near retirement, but in all that I have read, I have come to the conclusion that owning solid dividend-growers for life is the absolute best way to safely prepare for retirement. This is why I have core positions in companies like JNJ, MSFT, and CVX. Since I am young, I also get to invest more aggressively in dividend growers that aren’t quite “established” dividend growers yet, but likely will continue to grow their dividends. This includes companies like AAPL, SBUX, and V (I do not own V, but plan to build it into my portfolio when we get a market crash … I do own shares of AAPL and SBUX, with SBUX being a more core position for me. I did have a very large AAPL position but decided to sell 2/3 when it broke its trendline on the “bendgate” news).
I believe that people who establish core positions in reliable dividend growers (and reinvest their dividends) will be handsomely rewarded after a couple of decades and will end up more than prepared for retirement. Also, these folks can ideally retire on just dividends by that time (stop reinvesting and use dividends as their living income) because they will have grown so large. They can hold their stock and never have to pay the huge income tax bill … ideally they can pass on their shares to their heirs without ever having to sell!
I should also add that there are dividend growth ETFs, which may be the easiest way for those who don’t want to research companies to still invest in dividend growers in a diversified manner.
Very sensible thoughts, Eliott. Too bad the big “blue chip” dividend cos aren’t cheap these days because baby boomer investors are in such a yield-lust mindset (for good reason, thanks to the uselessness of savings accounts and CDs and safe bonds right now), but finding the companies that can both grow (even if slowly) and pay growing dividends is probably the single most appealing long-term strategy for retirement investors.
What about Royalty companies?
Travis,
I hope you can comment on Kent Moor’s latest bloviation regarding the use of graphene
filters to desalinate sea water. According to him, this development is likely to prevent
WW III.
Hello Travis. It is a lot to ask but would you considera sharing some of those names in your wish list?
I’ll share when I have something useful to say about them — right now it’s a hazy idea about things I like, needs more critical thinking.
Do keep in mind, always,
That the best stock to buy after a crash might be one that you already own. Assuming that you had and have good reasons for owning it.
Great article, Travis. Two questions: you mention that our debt fueled economy was unsustainable even in 1982 but weren’t we on sounder footing then. The loss of factory jobs to China and other countries hadn’t fully begun. Maybe this is a simplistic view but as a teenager in Philadelphia in the late 60’s and early 70’s I had no problem finding a summer job at factories within walking distance from my house. These jobs didn’t pay great wages but they were a starting point for a high school graduate. Now these factories are gone replaced by shopping centers or simply left vacant. And the old neighborhood is rapidly detiorating. Less jobs, less taxes, more welfare spending.
Second question is about a shopping list for stocks if there is a pullback. Is this something the irregulars could do together. Perhaps starting discussions about individual stocks.
Thanks again for the great work.
.
Lots of Fine Comments here, Travis. Impressive to see the reach of Gumshoe – Wondering if the New Zealand Contigent can easily purchase shares “Down Under.” MEANWHILE, The probably have NOT heard of the M Index, being teased by OXFORD Club. I have my credit card out, because ONE of US has to find out what makes up this index. The companies are pretty obscure, but my guess is that many of the stocks are going to be the same as those teased by Navellier or the Motley Fools or other Newsletter sources.
I did it….dont bother unless you want to pay to hear that AAPL is on the list.
Yes the concept is that this M List will outperform going forward. SO, Alan –
Please share the list with us! You can reach me @ advantedges@aol.com
Thanks,
Little tip….Never a good idea to publish your email address using @…better ‘at’ so the crawlers dont grab you and send junk mail or worse.
If you want the full list, just subscribe…..its free so long as you cancel as soon as the list arrives. I might get sued for providing to all here. Thats where Travis is clever ( in fact genius!) He picks the clues apart from the tease, so theres no contract clauses to fall foul of.
We all know that AAPL & GOOG will be in an Index that is outperforming according the the chart that was shared on Gumshoe regarding the M INDEX.
Not outperforming….out performed ie past tense. Tomorrow?
A lot of rants and raves that I can relate to. Far better reading than Allen Greenspan, Donald Rumsfeld or G.W. Bush explaining why their wrongs were absolutely right. [ A 3 air combat tour retired Navy captain has already declared G.W. Bush the worst 21st century President even though we have 85 years to go! ]
There is much gold in this article. I have updated my personal investing strategy (a document I need to remind myself of every year to try to stick to) with the following gems:
• Hold c10% cash to the side for opportunities as market corrects?
• Q: What do you call a stock that fell 90%?
A: A stock that fell 80% and then got cut in half.
• often “don’t do something, just stand there” is really the best advice for individual investors – more action means we have many, many more chances to make mistakes
• the herd mentality that would have us sell at the bottom and buy at the top is extremely hard for most peoples’ brains to fight.
• having a portfolio built around specific macro predictions… particularly time-constrained ones… is a good way to shrink a portfolio
Gold??? This site is pure platinum! If you haven’t signed up as an Irregular for a whole $49pa , then you are missing the BEST site on the web. You will feel like youve robbed Travis of a zero. (Disclosure: I dont get a commission, just the joy of helping other newbies like I once was). Once joined, it will be well worth having a read about some things not to do when investing, on this thread http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/08/microblog-lessons-taken-away-from-the-rgdo-crash/
GLA
Hi Alan I’ve been an irregular for just over a year. I sold RGDO before the most recent announcement where it lost another 50%. I read all the hope leading up to it but I simply wasn’t prepared to take the risk of another 50% loss. It reminded me of one of the quotes in my strategy which I had ignored – don’t lose money. My recent experience of taking these kind of bets has been a killer for my otherwise good returns over the last year. Recent examples are betting on GLUU going into earnings after an already big run up, betting on GTAT being in the iPhone and RGDO. I’ve switched some funds to MA and to the fracking sand suppliers I’ve made most of my recent gains in. While there’s some risk from the fall in oil price these companies have their future supply linked to price escalating agreements for majority of their volumes for 3-5 years, with increasing demand from the new techniques which increase sand per well many times. Only real risk is that drilling reduces materially and in turn services companies renege on contracts which is not unheard of.
Thank you, Travis, for your thoughts and logical investing process. I concur with Mr. Harris, as I have contributed to Mr. Stansberry’s continued wealth, as well as being an Irregular, and can honestly say the 49$ a year is the best investment education expense I have made. As I am close to retirement, indeed the best course is compunding your investment. I have been doing that for 37 years, and for someone who just barely made it out of high school, I am doing pretty good, thank you.
Life is GOOD
YOU HAANDS FROM DOWN UNDER LET US KNOW ON THE NAT/LNG WHO’S THE BIG CHEESE IN THAT STOCK MOVER PLEASE, CURIOUS WHAT IF ANY YOU SEE OR HEAR WHO HAS UPPER HAND?
Thanks Old Irregular
Travis EKSO COULD BE GOOD BUY ON PULL BACGS WITH THE GOOGLE ANS DOD CONTRACTS +. I got in .60’s and some more under a buck few of analyst have low twenty’s in year or two just thought!
As Always like the Shoe a lot!!!!!!!!!!! and irregulars are up to speed laid back!
FYI, Xerox is staying on the same track — I did sell my shares, as noted above, and I think they’re likely to have flat earnings for at least the next 18 months. For those who still hold, guidance is again basically flat with a possibility of 1-2% growth: http://www.mideasttime.com/xerox-corp-xrx-releases-fy14-earnings-guidance/264893/
That’s not enough to warrant a $14 share price and a PE of 13 or so — you can engineer earnings a bit, and squeeze the business a bit, but the real benefit from that is already in the stock and what helped them rise from $8-$14 and get back up appreciably above book value. From now, the likelihood is that Xerox is just eking along and keeping up with inflation at this point. Unless you’re really convinced that Xerox’s business is about to have some revenue growth and a positive upswing, something for which I’ve seen no evidence of late, then there’s no reason to own it right now — I expect that over the next year the returns will be roughly the same for Xerox and for an I-bond (the consumer-focused US savings bonds that carry inflation protection, current yield about 1.5%), and the downside protection is much better with the savings bond.
Just my thoughts and opinions, of course, but that’s what popped into mind when I saw the latest guidance released earlier in the week.
Thanks, Travis, for reminding me to look at my Standard Graphite (DARDF on otc; SGH on TSX.V; formerly Orocan Resources Corp.) stock and my sad little lithium investment, Galaxy Resouces (GALFX on otc; GSY on ASX). Clearly, I am a “battery” investor. Both have dropped and I didn’t have enough of MY meds on hand to want to follow the stories behind the fall. Tonight I checked and looks like Standard has diversified with some gold, so that never hurts. Galaxy is in the what-the-? category. It seems about as snake-bitten a company as I’ve seen — after an explosion at its Chinese facility killed two workers in 2012, it seemed not to have recovered momentum. I haven’t had the time tonight to tease out what happened over the last few months but it’s divesting itself of the Chinese lithium interest entirely — selling to China — and hanging on to other lithium interests here and there. Don’t know if the Chinese sale was in any way forced by the regulators in China or some other drama. If any readers have followed this company, I’d love to know what has transpired and if there is any value in adding shares here at low low levels. I am creating discussion topics with the names of these companies if anyone would like to comment under those topics. Thanks, Travis!