Ebola: To Parse, Perchance to Parlay
by DrKSSMDPhD | October 28, 2014 9:28 pm
DR. KSS LOOKS AT EBOLA AND THE DRUGS TO COMBAT IT
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/10/microblog-ebola-to-parse-perchance-to-parlay/
CELG has MANY MANY catalysts coming –
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=341&mn=191872&pt=msg&mid=14314216
25 partnerships with data coming from XLRN, AGIO, EPZM, OMED, and MPSFY soon…
COuldn’t agree strongly enough. People not invested in $CELG….guys, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. It’s overtaking Gilead, still executes like a $500M market cap hungry company. OK, I am no one’s personal investment advisor, but if you are not in this one, why? High share price scares you off? It’s like to grow more than the average growth you will get from a dozen risky small biotechs. Give yourself something easy and something to look forward.
You will profit from being in $CELG.
I give $CELG a grade of A.
Thanks doc.
I wish i had more money to buy CELG.
One quick question AGIO is on phase 1 and still super expensive……….
I was doing some DD and found —-
Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AGIO ) on AG-221, a first-in-class IDH2 mutant inhibitor for advanced-stage tumors that express the IDH2 mutation. What’s so exciting about this early stage compound is that in April Agios reported in an interim analysis that three of six AG-221-treated blood cancer patients had a complete response, while six of seven evaluable patients had an objective response. Complete responses are incredibly rare for blood cancers, so Celgene and Agios may be sitting on a big winner. In a later phase 1 analysis, though, just six of 25 evaluable patients demonstrated a complete response, lasting anywhere from one to four months.
Is this the reason being strong and expensive ?
Thanks again Dr.
Om…great points. Keep in mind:
(1) they are many kinds of blood cancer/liquid tumors. Agios threw open phase 1 to many kinds, and so really nothing about efficacy can be assessed from that. As I recall, everything from AML to ALL to MM to CML could be in their phase 1 trial. And even CLL too. Those are hugely varied patients. They just wanted to lay their hands on stable patients to look for safety,
(2) no one is really thinking the agent will be used as a monotherapy. Possibly some have implied that, but that is not what the medical community is thinking.
(3) I need to remind myself what they have coming at ASH, but after ASCO in the spring, it will be at least a $100 stock based on what’s now known.
(4) my personal view is that it will be shown helpful for solid tumors, too…at least some. They won’t have to repeat phase 1 for that.
Rather than preventing a total need for other agents, it may lead to needing fewer agents for less time, and possibly needing fewer baldness-and-vomiting horror drugs. While it could have good single agent efficacy for some processes my feeling is that used this way it would quickly select for mutations.
Yeah, I have known a few people who have this.
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/45/16106.abstract
One biotech CEO leaps to mind.
Benitec is announcing in about 10 min that a second patient is being dosed. Just ahead of the AGM
Yeah, no coincidence Benitec doses a second patient on day of AGM. AND has its website go down for people looking to log on for meeting…I cannot find link for AGM presentation. Anyone know?
http://webcasting.brrmedia.com/broadcast/544ee9cb1cab185b72323234
DR KSS I hope my proximity has not infected you with early onset Oldtimers disease,,,,
IE Beni-cynicism.
Not not cynicism Frank. Why should people be turned on by a casserole of raspberry-flavored crow served up as news in Silenceworks? There was no news. Pannobhaso is the sort of guy who says he will be glad to loan you money for lunch and gives you 50 cents. He’s the sort of guy who claims his porridge will warm your winter bones but you realize it’s chicken bullion diluted 100-fold. He has nothing of value to say…ever. Ah, so the HBV project has moved from Biomics to Suhy’s lab in SF? Tell you anything? That maybe Biomics isn’t interested or has failed? Why do people get excited by Calimmune news, or Circuit news, or Genable or Regen? Have terms of a licensing agreement EVER been disclosed? No. There is absolutely NO reason to believe that clinical success by any of these companies will ever translate into alpha for Benitec shareholders.
Sassykind asked if you could use ddRNAi to kill pain. Yes, you can…silence the expression of the Nav1.7 channel and you become a Pakistani firewalker. And that’s the problem…it will shut down ALL ability to feel pain…which is a trait necessary for survival and health. If you deploy ddRNAi for pain, you will be deploying it diffusely and systemically, and create more problems than you solve. Benitec’s prior ddRNAi to silence protein kinase R to control pain didn’t wow anyone.
I am long Benitec, but the best way for the long thesis to pay off is for people to get motivated about demanding removal of the CEO. I am long Benitec. I want it to succeed. I want to profit from it. I want ddRNAi to prevail. None of these things can possibly happen unless an accountable, open, dynamic, clinic-minded non-introvert CEO runs it! This company thinks it major doings to dose one patient every 5 months and despite that utter failure, STILL doesn;t have second sites online. Why???? That should have been done in March!! We need a CEO who will delineate and explicate the snags, and hangups, and be honest and not mysterious, vexing, eerie and aloof. No one will oust him because deep groupthink is going on, which is a death spiral. No one will confront on fear of their jobs. Stubbings is hatchet man for any French naysayers.
I give Benitec a D for quality.
DR Luv your humor and logic.
Doc…try this if you dont already have it:
http://www.brrmedia.com/event/129135?popup=tue
Benitec:
In case anyone hasn’t seen this yet:
Letter to Shareholders:
http://blt.live.hqi.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1456-10000000/ChairmansAddresstoShareholders
Announcement of 2d patient dosing:
http://blt.live.hqi.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1454-10000000/SECONDPATIENTDOSEDINTT034TRIAL
Re: GILD
According to this, short interest in GILD grew by 8.5%, for a total of 51,964,702 shares shorted in the month of October (3.3 days to cover).
http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/421587/short-interest-in-gilead-sciences-grows-by-8-5-gild/
This one talks about ACHN piggybacking on GILD.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/12/this-tiny-biotech-is-piggy-backing-on-gilead-scien.aspx
And this last one talks about large insider selling (a planned sale), as well as Moody’s raising Gilead’s senior unsecured credit ratings to A3 from Baa1:
Read more: Gilead Sciences Sees Large Insider Stock Sale Into Debt Offering (NASDAQ: GILD) – 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/healthcare-business/2014/11/12/gilead-sees-large-insider-stock-sale-into-debt-offering/#ixzz3ItqMjqTN
On to the new thread! http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/11/microblog-payola-from-portola/
Very interesting discussion of Ebola and the Epidemic that came to NYC. I actually have a method for treating an individual already infected with Ebola. Preliminary data with a safer negative-strand RNA virus in tissue culture and with Sendai virus in mice confirms that it will work. I would be interested in making some money from this idea so I won’t divulge exactly what the treatment is. However, when Dr. Craig Spencer came to NYC I emailed the NYC Public Health Dept with my idea, and never got a reply. I then emailed one of the nurses who had cared for him, whose name and email became available, and she basically replied to buzz off, she didn’t want to be bothered. Ebola has that kind of effect on people who come into contact with it. So perhaps we can Parlay on this topic, partly with a view to exchange expert knowledge on the virus, and partly to figure out how to make some $$ on it without giving the simple secret away. Note that this method is not specific for Ebola; it will work equally well against any negative-strand RNA virus, such as measles virus in Africa, and to counter the next 1919-type flu pandemic.
Benjamin M Blumberg, PhD