The Gain from Pain Mainly Explained: Fire Walk with Me
by DrKSSMDPhD | October 13, 2014 3:52 pm
DR. KSS TAKE ON PAIN AGAIN: Third in a Series
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/10/microblog-the-gain-from-pain-mainly-explained-fire-walk-with-me/
$GILD beats on revenue, misses on EPS. Shares down about 5 percent AH. Big whoop. Buying opp. Next issue.
One insider at Amicus $FOLD sold 11.3 million shares today. Yowks. Not sure anyone should be in this one waiting for it to recover soon. It may down the line, and the scientific work is impeccable, but it faces obstacles now.
DR KSS,
Is FOLD still a buy now?
Cowen and Company raised their price target on shares of Amicus Therapeutics to $14.00 in a research note on Wednesday, August 20th.
BtEBY is dead money now for years may be forever!
Om: back in the summer I wondered if it could run well on past 7, but somehow the momentum forming on the news of migalastat success. GSK has a sizable position, but there has been slow steady insider selling since then, leading up to today’s massive insider sell. All of the pipeline is mostly around migalastat and Fabry disease, and I feel the bloom is off that rose here. FOLD’s chart is quite garish here, like the mountains along the Yangtze River in China. The only thing afoot that’s new at FOLD is its Pompe disease program. If you are in FOLD here I would probably hold, but personally I would not buy here. I like the company’s work, love its management, and think it is prime for an eventual buyout, but to me here this is behaving like a broken stock.
Thanks Dr.
Am not in FOLD but i can wait for a while to come down little more around 4:50/S
Then i will get in!
GlaxoSmithKline was the seller. Apparently sold all of their shares.
Hmmm. Ominous. I thought GSK had 1.5M FOLD shares, but that’s a stray fact and i could be wrong.
They filed a Form 4 with SEC dated 11/27. Show 0 shares following sell. Seems they did this very quietly.
Do you mean 10/27?
FOLD back up nearly 4% in AH.
Yup. 10/27. Fingers sometimes…..
Link to Form 4. http://tinyurl.com/ockx2n9
GILD shares only down $1.00 or less per share now that street has digested results. Basically flat…… Down $.74 at 4:40 EDT
“McGuffin”, Doc? Loving owning GILD. In the green and I sleep well at night.
A McGuffin is a plot device in literature and film. The meaning has drifted over the years. It once was a rubric for goals, attributes, interests of characters that had nothing to do with where the plot was headed. Nowadays, it tends to imply a seemingly random, small, whimsical event that occurs early in the plot that proves to alter the entire direction and outcome of the story. Hitchcock films mostly all have a definitive McGuffin during the first 15 minutes. The McGuffin in “Psycho” is the moment Janet Leigh decides to steal the money.
I think Hitchcock coined the word,,, story as I recall is ,,riding on a train man asked Hitch ,,,,Whats in your big trunk,,,,,,Hitch ans. A McGuffin. Whats that? H. it catches lions in Scotland. ‘There are no lions in Scotland’ H.,,,,,then its not a McGuffin.
Misdirection in main plot line,,,red herring,,,something to divert your attention,, to send down a wrong trail.
Likely to be lots of rancor coming up at AASLD meeting, the biggest liver meeting in the world.
http://www.hcvguidelines.org/full-report/when-and-whom-initiate-hcv-therapy
AASLD are behaving like total Pontius Pilates as regards advocating treatment for ALL with HCV. The stuff in the link is blood-boiling. AASLD has sold out.
Hi Doc KSS,
Please clarify your comments about the AASLD publication. I understood you to be very much in favor of treating all with HCV, except perhaps the terminally ill. Is it the prioritization scheme the AASLD recommends that has your “Blood-boiling” or am I missing your point? As always, thanks for your insight and time dedicated to this site!
DH tweeting that ISIS negotiating Santaris settlement with Roche….smells $$$$……Is ISIS in play? Thoughts?
Dr. KSS– I’m not sure if you ever read this article. I thought it was very interesting. http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/32946/title/Moss-Harbors-Foreign-Genes/
Thanks! Will have a go.
Dr. KSS,
Would you be willing to share a quick explanation of the following in terms of a theoretical prognosis?
One of my direct reports went into the hospital Sunday night with severe abdominal pain.
After a CT scan and MRI, they determined that he has a 2.4CM stage 2B carcinoma on the head of his pancreas which is inflaming his bile ducts and causing jaundice.
After a procedure to relieve the current condition (I don’t know what the procedure is), He is going to Hopkins for a next steps evaluation, and 2B sounds better than 4 for sure.
Is he on his way out, or do people in similar condition have a chance of remission/cure?
Thanks very much.
Don
Don: that’s horrible.
In this case he needs a pancreaticoduodenectomy, or something akin to a Whipple procedure. It is a major whack. The bile duct comes out of the liver, and travels down to the pancreas head, where it fuses with the pancreatic duct and there enters the duodenum, a curve of which hugs the head of the pancreas. To address this surgically, you have to excise the pancreas head, which also means lifting out a section of duodenum, and also means severing both the bile and pancreatic ducts. You then have to get those plugged back into the gut. What surgeons do is remove several extra inches of duodenum, and splice those pieces to the free ends of the bile and pancreatic ducts, and then splice the other ends into the duodenum. It’s intricate…lots of anastomosing.
This case would be best managed (although Hopkins is excellent) at a cancer center such as Fred Hutchinson in Seattle, MSK in NYC or MD Anderson in Houston. It is my feeling, and I have data to support it, that MD Anderson is the best site in the world for this specific presentation. Ideally, he’d have an eval there and a multi-disciplinary review and then have his surgery there. The surgical techniques are definitely different among the institutions. The person he should see at Anderson is James Abbruzzese MD or else Robert Wolff, MD. Both are friends, and do almost nothing but pancreas cancer, and have remarkable outcomes. And are great people.
I do feel that the quality, the fastidiousness, of the initial surgery, and how things are reconstructed, can have a major impact on survival. In most cases however, blood circulating through the pancreas all sweeps up into liver, a filter feeder organ—-the pancreas tops up blood with insulin, and then the liver tastes the blood and tops up the glucose in the blood if the pancreas has made a mistake. Pancreas cancer patients tend to get into major trouble with liver metastases.
Gloomily, the odds are not in your friend’s favor. Overall, 5-year survival for this stage is 5-7 per cent. Anderson in some case series has pushed that as high as 15-20 percent, though that still is nothing to cheer about.
I am in your debt, sir. Your response was honest, sobering, and very helpful for understanding what is going on with my colleague.
I will gently encourage him and his family to seek treatment outside of his local sphere of influence.
With Gratitude for your generosity,
Don
To eyedoc: Thanks for the sage advice, I just hate buying at 52 week highs which ESPR and CTIX are creating every day… But I will be patient and keep my head in the game. I have 10 days left on this rotation before I return home
To KennyG and Dogg: The reason I sold my DRTX was because I was under the impression that all my DRTX funds would be tied up until the CVR’s came to fruition (or lack thereof) but that does not seem to be the case base on the letter? As Dogg pointed out, I could technically rebuy my shares at roughly the same price tomorrow and wait until the week of Nov 17th to get my $23 per share? In addition, I will also get 1 CVR per share? It’s like getting call options for free? To me the risk seems pretty minimal for the upside potential? Please let me know If I am way off base here!
To Dr. KSS: In regards to the “healthiest kids in Darrowby”, while I am nowhere close to Darrowby, all I can say is my little Afghanis seem immune to most common diseases. It was rumored by my interpreter that when the Bird Flue hit China pretty hard a while back, which eventually spilled into Afghanistan, only 1 Afghan died, the rest of the country had no clue a flue was even around. They did not even get runny noses… Point being, the hygiene here is a low priority but their immune system seems ferocious. As Alan said, I believe in exposing kids to bugs etc… We need to stop bubble wrapping our kids and ourselves!
Frenchy The way I read it you are right on point .Buy before the deadline. Your gain will be counted as ordinary income I think but I am no tax expert
Count me in the Amen corner with Alan and the DR. If you get dirty often enough you don’t get sick. Its worked for me.
Frenchy: I don’t think it is that easy to beat the system. I think you will need to either settle the trade where you buy back the shares, or at least have that much funds in your account before the shares can be tendered in the offering. If you have the cash to settle the buy order or cash in your account, you can do this. But as Frank indicated, this transaction will result in a short term capital gain for tax purposes unless this is being done in a tax deferred account (IRA or 401k).
Be safe these remaining 10 days!
Frenchy, in regards to CTIX and ESPR my method is to go with the trend. I have been adding to my positions in both and will do so until I have more than I should. A good rule is never let a profit turn into a loss. Let me repeat that, never let a profit turn into a loss. I broke that rule with BTEBY and kick myself everyday. So if they turn south I will cut them loose. I feel like they both have a good ways to run yet.
As for DRTX, I sold it the day it popped to 24. Always take the profit. Now it may be worth getting back in for the rights. That is tempting. But there is risk. I worry most about unethical book keeping. But the return even if only 100 percent is really good. I don’t know yet but I may pick up a few shares.
dogg – how far south do you let a stock go?
Hi Pockets,
Tough question. I usually look at the chart. If the uptrend is broken I do not give it much room. Look at GILD. When it hit 108 it ran out of steam. Nice rolling top. I meant to sell half but listened to everyone saying how great the company is and hesitated. When it broke 100 I sold. It bottomed at 91 and I reentered at 94. Sold again yesterday before earnings at 113 and bought again after hours at 109. Now I will give it some room, maybe to 105. If I just entered the position I give it a little room. For me this is the most dangerous trade. The number one rule is no emotions. Fear, Greed, Denial, etc. They will ruin more trades than anything else.
Good comment and I truly hate to be a nag. This is the bio thread and unless we follow that theme, good comments are lost. Please cut and paste to http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/10/microblog-technical-analysis/
Thanx
Dogg, Im following yr discussion with Hi Pockets…..Im intent on having a few bios in my portfolio but waiting for pullbacks as I missed the boat on CTIX at 1.60 and ESPR 21.50. IBB at 262. GILD just watched it goooooo. Would you offer good entry points on these shud they pull back. Id be looking at a min 100/20/10 Re: CTIX, GILD, IBB. Just to get my feet wet.
thanks Lulu
(Hope Im not being too forward in this request)
Lulu, trying to get me in trouble with Alan?
FWIW – my take on CTIX- If you believe in Elliot wave it looks to be on wave four. Good place to be. Should move up from here. If it is going to pull back the last area of support would be that area of consolidation from 9/23 to 10/22. Hate to see it break below that. If it does I am out. Gild – This will probably move with the Market as will IBB. IBB had such a strong move from 250 to 290. Not sure how I feel about the market at this point. We were at full value before the pullback and now we have moved back almost to that same level. Biotechs have outperformed on this rally and may continue to do so. Looks like the place to be. If IBB pulls back to 280 it should find support there. Gild has dropped back to it’s support area. You might want to dip your toes in the water so to speak. Buy 1/2 or 1/4 positions lessen the risk, dollar cost average, that sort of thing.
Hope this helps.
Er!!!! Lulu….see you on http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/10/microblog-technical-analysis/
The point is, us tec’s that are hanging on your every word (like me) will miss these shafts of light from your grey cells in a nano seconds time and not be able to refer back. Those 100’s that dont give a fig for technical’s, are having their inbox cluttered up with ‘yawn’ stuff.
Woof Woof!
Im just trying to keep the train of thought directed….nothing personal…honest guv.
eyedoc; I posted a comment for you on Alan’s thread.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/07/microblog-politics-rights-religion-sex-and-investing-other-unmentionable-subjects/#comment-2842264
This may have been disclosed already, bu the site J3SG disclosed the sale of a FOLD insider of 11,315,825 shares for a total of $59.9MM
J-P see post 362 above.
Biotech discussions have shifted to a new thread for a great Dr KSS article on Ebola published tonight. Here is the link:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/10/microblog-ebola-to-parse-perchance-to-parlay/#comment-2843438
Just read this about Celladon:
Research analysts at Credit Suisse assumed coverage on shares of Celladon Corporation (NASDAQ:CLDN) in a REPORT released on Monday, TheFlyOnTheWall.com REPORTS. The firm set an “outperform” rating and a $20.00 price target on the stock. Credit Suisse’s price objective would indicate a potential upside of 111.19% from the stock’s previous close. Celladon Corporation (NASDAQ:CLDN) institutional ownership stands at 68.50%. In last trading activity company’s stock closed at $10.75.
Dr. K,
Would you like to say a bit more about ,”Xenon themes its work around genetics, but not the slog of big data genomics. “?