by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | December 3, 2014 6:09 pm
This is premium content. To view this article (and to have full access to the rest of our articles), sign up. Already a member? Log in.
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/12/a-couple-buys-and-what-to-do-with-seadrill/
Copyright ©2024 Stock Gumshoe unless otherwise noted.
Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) is the resident Gumshoe Core energy/oil holding. PBA has also been hit hard by the oil price crash. I like this company and plan to add to my holdings soon. I’d appreciate your current thoughts on PBA Travis.
FYI, just saw this on Africa Oil this evening: http://allafrica.com/stories/201412031663.html
Pretty much all oil companies are getting these questions now about whether they’ll cut back, whether they’ll preserve capital, etc. Interesting times. I really can’t find myself believing any forecasts, there’s really no way to know what the “right” price for oil might be next year.
Thanks Travis,
I’m buying oil companies right now including SDRL. IMHO, the world is a powder keg just waiting for the next crisis, war or attack on one of our oil rich countries and perhaps shutting down some supplies. It’s harder for me to believe oil will continue to drop long term than it is for oil to go up. What do you think is more likely, gas @ $1.50 per gallon or back to $4.00 per gallon? I say the latter so I’m looking at all of this as a buying opportunity. Best of luck to all of the Irregulars and Happy Holidays to your families from mine. Jennifer
I suspect that we’ll see both $1.50 gas and $4 gas in the next decade, since gas is already under $2 in some places, but I am trying not to have so much hubris as to really base much of my portfolio on predicting where or when it will move in a given year — I’ve been wrong on oil in almost every way that it’s possible to be wrong over the last ten years. Right sometimes too, of course, but wrong enough to have a bruised tail and the desire to stay away from the rocking chair for large portions of the day.
Hi Travis,
I don’t know what proportion of your subscribers are non-US based but I suspect they are more than just myself. We, the global audience, appreciate very much every bit of your writings about non-US listed ideas, most recently Lancashire, Fosun, and the hedge funds mentioned in the above entry. Please keep on doing it!
Hi travis,
I am also based in europe and would love to hear your thoughts on stocks listed in the EU, or elsewhere! Oil price is everybodys guessing game right now.
My question is which companies will actually boost their bottomlines over the next year or so due to cheap oil?
I’m UK based and rely on Gumshoe for insight into US markets. I bought Lancashire after the special dividend was declared. I was surprised that the stock dropped the full 75 pence on the day, but it has recovered nearly one third of that already, and will probably recover quite a lot more given time. It is a stock that doesn’t catch the eye as an income stock because the special dividends don’t show up in yield reports, but everything you read about the company is positive. I’m considering topping up the holding slightly. Keep up the good work, Travis. Many thanks for all your helpful advice.
I was going to buy SDRL at 18 then took my order off the market. To me SDRL is and always has been like the bad boy in school that Mum tells us to avoid however it has ALWAYS intrigued me. I am on the fence now that it is so low but without a dividend? I think I could park my money elsewhere for a big dividend like T and MO or VZ use it like a bank account waiting for some sign SDRL will reinstate the dividend albeit lower.
Hi Travis,
Would it be possible to get a 5-10 stock list going of your “Best Stock Buys Now”? It could be updated bi-monthly or something similar. It’s hard to sort out from your ownership what you consider a strong buy vs. a “I might sell this tomorrow” position.
Thanks!
Well, everything is really a “might sell this tomorrow” — you never know when a company will change in a fundamental way. But I’ll take your suggestion in mind — I definitely don’t want to be running a bi-monthly “tip sheet” where I imply that I have a magic touch on the timing of stock prices, but I can try to come up with a way to better keep my opinions up to date and communicated.
If oil or gas appears anywhere in a company’s business activity, the shares have been sold off. As usual the rationale has been thought through by the headless chicken. Pipeline companies, particularly MLPs, may derive most of their revenue from throughput and thus see a slowing of their earnings. However several companies earn money at the same rate all the time their pipelines are full, whether the gas/oil is flowing or just being stored. Those companies earnings will not be adversely affected by the price of oil.
The other area wrongly dumped after the OPEC decision is oil and gas shipping. Had OPEC pulled the plug on supplies that would have hit the tanker market, but quite the reverse happened, despite the shipping industry preparing for an OPEC reduction. So now tanker rates are rising. Even gas carriers because there is a finite number of Masters with the appropriate Tickets so Gas tanker rates have to move up with Oil tanker rates. Shares in tanker companies do not currently reflect their prospects, they are too cheap.