Opening the year with a new portfolio position
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | January 5, 2015 1:16 pm
Happy New Year!
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/01/opening-the-year-with-a-new-portfolio-position/
Worthwhile sober counterpoint here from a SeekingAlpha contributor — he suggests waiting for the next dip to the $70s.
That may well make perfect sense, and it’s abundantly possible that FB falls substantially at some point this year — particularly if their revenues don’t grow enough to help cover their “investment” needs that they telegraphed in the last quarterly call. My sense is that worrying about a $10 price difference in FB shares is relatively pointless right now if you’re thinking about a long-term investment — the stock will definitely swing strongly on news as analysts rejigger estimates based on how Zuckerberg and the rest of the management team talk about their expectations and investments for this year, but there’s no way to know whether any given quarter (or other news release, including acquisitions) will be taken positively or negatively by the market. It’s quite unusual for a $100 billion stock to double on the strength of one new product (mobile news stream ads), so predicting what will happen in the year to come is a bit of a fool’s errand… my assumption is that, like Google six years ago, they are strong and entrenched and can grow much larger than anyone anticipates.
It took Facebook to give Google a real competitor in mobile, an area no one wanted to touch before 2012 because of the expected low returns for mobile advertising… is there another behemoth waiting in the wings to compete with both of them? I tend to think it’s too late for others to compete on the current playing field, now that Facebook and Google can buy any startup they want to, but you never know when the playing field will get turned upside down by some new idea. Obsolescence is the constant fear of tech companies, but never underestimate the power of being the established behemoth in a sector.
I bought FB at $39 after its IPO and thought that was too high, but I am holding onto it now. I think it will continue to do well for the long term.
I originally bought my options when it was around that price, though it was a bit later after it had swooned and then started to recover. Those video ads they keep increasing look like they might push earnings substantially over time, we’ll see (http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/business-it/facebooks-new-year-resolution-more-video-ads-in-news-feed-20150107-12jzsm.html)
Travis, Could you let DR. KSS that Randall Kirk is the ceo of Intrexon (XON), which co. has been called into service with Ziop- Ziopharm for its platform with Cancer treatments. I was actually looking at Ziop as a very promising C co. and I saw this news release bringing the 2 together. He probably knows this but I would love his critique on both firms.
Greetings Travis,
I have read where you have responded to articles by requests from members. Not knowing where to ask I’ve picked here. Motley Fool has a promo for ‘Profiting from mobile payments’. The idea is interesting as it spans so many areas! If you get requests for this one add me to it!
THANKS for all you do! My days are updated for years now by your newsletter!
Catice, Travis covered a similar promo here: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/retirement-millionaire/the-end-of-american-money-as-we-know-it/