by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | February 13, 2015 12:01 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/02/february-idea-of-the-month-love-snow/
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You’ve not been grabbed by the good doctor’s trail of a couple of pharma possibilities then, Travis; you’re more of a buy and hold man?
I’ve decided to generally avoid biotech because I don’t want to invest the time to understand the science, and specifically to stay away from Dr. KSS’s picks because they are in many cases so small and volatile that I would have to be very careful to avoid benefitting from the impact Gumshoe readers have on the share price. I like having someone else manage my healthcare stock holdings, in general, though I do sometimes own stocks in the sector. If I were buying a healthcare- related stock today it would probably be TMO.
Thanks for bringing PLOW to my attention, Travis. Last year I searched for a way to play the high snows and bought CMP, which provides the majority of salt for de-icing in the USA. It has a slightly higher PE but yields 3% compared to PLOW’s 4%. I was in and out of CMP for a quick gain last year. PLOW seems to be on a faster growth trajectory as it is up about 50% in the last 2 or 3 years compared to CMP’s 20% share price appreciation. But CMP is a $3B company compared to PLOW’s $0.5B mkt cap.
I always want to have a nice options market to earn extra money selling calls and get my stock called away at high prices and selling puts to maybe buy the stock on a dip. Both CMP and PLOW have active options markets, but CMP’s options strikes are in $5 increments rather than the 50 cent increment of PLOW’s options. It is always good to have more strike options for your options.
Thanks again for bringing up PLOW.
Travis,
Is the only way to buy PSH through the Amsterdam exchange?
Eric please read the first sentence of this article. Best2ALL!-Benjamin
Just got a pink sheet symbol this week, though it’s not likely to be very liquid — PSHZF
Thanks Travis,
I figured this was a new OTC listing because I was unable to buy it just a couple weeks ago.
Maybe this question is not for this forum. .. but since stock prices in the U.S. have gone up for so many years now, as you mention, Travis, and the European sector is down, is it the right time to be buying there and do you have any suggestions? Or suggestions for any other sector that might not have had the dramatic increase that we have seen in U.S. stocks recently?
My first impulse in Europe is to stock with HEDJ — the ETF that focuses on European exporters and hedges against the euro, so if the euro is going down and that’s helping big exporters like Siemens et al then they get an extra boost. It’s had a nice run, and like all of Europe it is very volatile around ECB announcements/Greek panic, but that’s where I’d look first in mainland Europe. There are doubtless single-stock values out there, too, but right now the whole market seems to rise and fall together on currency and political news so it’s fairly easy to play those trends without researching (or taking risk on) individual players. I’ve traded this one in the past, mostly with options, but don’t have any exposure right now.
J Kristen: -I- think it’s the right forum and a good question. I’ve been thinking about emerging markets as well, although right now my focus is looking into India rather than Europe, although the Indian exchanges (the BSE and the NSE) [and thus the stocks traded on them] have also had good runs recently. For companies headquartered in India, both traded on Indian exchanges and on US exchanges, I’m checking out a few ETFs like $EPI $INCO $INDA $INDL $INDY $INP $INXX $PIN $SCIF $SCIN or $SMIN. No decision made yet. Anyone got thoughts on this?
But speaking of snow, although I very much like Travis’ Idea of [This] Month, I’ve been mulling over an idea for a couple of months from now when the snow vanishes and the damage shows up. At that point the roads are going to be a bloody nightmare which means paving – which is governmental – but requires surfaces such as asphalt and composite and other things which have to be bought from somewhere (although government budget time frames may run differently), so I’ve been thinking about companies like $VMC or $GVA or maybe even an ETF like $RTM.
Anybody got any input on this idea or these companies/this ETF?
Allison, you may very well be right to be interested in India – I was glued to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, watching all the coverage I found time for, and there was a lot of buzz about strong economic optimism among the people of India (I didn’t see that kind of buzz reported in connection with any other region). Optimism and determination are the fundamental growth drivers in my opinion, and we’re seeing too much of the opposite in most other areas (I plead guilty to giving in to malaise re: the U.S. at times, when we still have so much going for us here). Anyway I’d been thinking of a couple of the funds you mentioned since Davos. I hope Travis will offer an opinion.
Brilliant! Thank you for that insight Patricia; I would not have thought to check that. *Bad Allison; no biscuit!* Yes the reason I was looking to India was precisely because I had read things that made me feel exactly that, that India was the current most positive frontier. Reinforcement appreciated. If you know any/some of the companies/management of the funds mentioned would love insight. I will, of course, be doing my own DD over the next bit of time – not gonna go in now where it’s just green, green, green – and will share any insights I cull although I must be clear I am BEYOND being a n00b in this world AFAIC.
I’m still trying to get the true Big Picture on India before researching specific funds in more detail: if you haven’t already, you might want to read these articles by Travis (Sept 2013) and a subscriber (Sept 2014) which delve into both problems and potential in India. But my impression is that recent political leadership is much improved, there seems to be a genuine intention to lessen bureaucratic/corruption impediments to growth. If so, that would certainly account for the optimism.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/09/opportunity-india-myth-or-magic-amitabh-singhi/
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2013/09/vic-rahul-saraogi-india-is-a-terrible-place-to-visit/
I haven’t looked at the India ETFs recently, but the renewed hope for India (again) has certainly boosted most of them. I don’t think there’s a harder country to govern in the world, the opportunity is always enticing but the infrastructure and bureaucracy have quashed many a wave of reform before. I’m keeping my fingers crossed but haven’t invested yet.
And on the construction materials stuff, I’d be careful — those are much more driven by construction cycles and homebuilding than they are by weather, the repair cycle for roads doesn’t seem to be big enough for a large investing impact. That’s my impression, at least, I could be wrong — and they are in a good cycle right now because homebuilding and other construction have picked up so much …. if we do get another wave of infrastructure stimulus spending that leads to a lot more highway money from the Feds, that would probably mean more for those stocks than anything else.
Thanks Travis for commenting on India before your vacation week starts – “watch, wait and see” while doing more research seems like the best idea right now for those of us so interested in the country.
If you can believe in weather predictions $PLOW could be a good play.
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/climate-scientists-global-warming/2013/12/30/id/544314/
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/weather-channel-co-founder-predicting-snowier-bitterly-colder
for those who are willing to listen to me, and there are still a few, my newsletter, http://www.global-investing.com has a reporter doing nothing but India stock-picking, named Abhimanyu Sisodia. He writes up individual accessible Indian ADRs you can buy in the USA. I buy them. They tend to go up. Enough said.
We are also benefiting from reporters covering Europe: in England, France, The Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain in particular. Travis mentioned that the Euro-land stocks tend to move in tandem with the currency. What that means is that the drop in the Euro over the past half year has zapped returns on listed ADRs. So his idea of buying a currency-hedged fund makes sense as long as you need the hedge because the US dollar is going up.
Me, I think some of that rise may reverse this year if Euroland exports go up (because of the now very low euro). If a trend goes on long enough it reverses.
I edit a newsletter called http://www.global-investing.com which some of you have opted to subscribe to. We do not do the come-on promotions Travis likes to write about when he is not celebrating the big February holidays in Massachusetts. We haven’t got the money for that. So I tell you about what we are up to here. If you don’t like it, you may insult me, but I am trying to find reasonably open and intelligent readers, which is what you all are.
And yes, we have a biotech reporter who is not always on the same track as Dr KSS, and moreover doesn’t write as beautifully. But I trust her and buy her ideas, unlike Travis who has now indicated that from a combination of scruples about front-running and fear, he doesn’t follow the doctor’s stock prescriptions. I follow my writer’s but wait until the issue is out to avoid the front-running, unless the stock is so obscure I need to buy a test lot to make sure it can be bought.
(Being a good writer and an MD is an old tradition: among the great writer-doctors was Conan Doyle, Schnitzler, William Carlos Williams, and Somerset Maughm. None of them also engaged in stock-picking, to my disappointment. )
While on the subject of Europe, I am grateful to Travis to have found out how to buy the Amsterdam listed fund run by Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Fund. I kept trying to find it with my European broker at E-trade and he came up empty-handed even when the SEC rules against buying a foreign ipo within the first 90 days had expired. What Etienne could not do for me, Travis did. Dank U Travis.
I am thinking of buying a snow clearing stock myself, although here in Nieuw Amsterdam the plows are put in front of the garbage trucks to clear the streets. Which reminds me, does anyone else remember the was a criminal was caught by Sherlock Holmes because of how he spelled that word?
Vivian, I looked at your website, which looks interesting, but is expensive. Any chance that you might consider giving Irregulars the opportunity to take a one-day look at your archives for less than $50?
Travis. ONLY way to buy Biotech, unless you know the company. Buy an index or a good fund. Vanguard has a fund that has several top picks, but also is diversified: POGRX.
Meanwhile, what is the deal with East Coasters? Let it Snow, but we are in the West where we want your snow, and don’t need PLOW! This Weather Pattern will change, and you will need an air conditioner! Buy SO or another beaten down energy stock. Forget SnowPlows.
Thanks for informing me of PLOW. I think the best exposure you can make re: equities right now are in TELECOMS, AIRLINERS, TECH, DEFENSE, AND HEALTH CARE-NAMELY DRUGS. Dr. Reddy, out of India (RDY) and WuXi Pharmatech of China (WX) are both picking up steam in their respective HUGE markets. I Love Walgreens Boots (WBA), & I like CVS! Both will be long term winners, but I think Walgreens has the upper hand on REVS as they are 1) the largest Rx Chain in America and now have presence in Britain with ther Boots Alliance 2) they sell cigarettes & alcohol (a $2Bn loss for (CVS) now that they’re ALL ABOUT HEALTH and won’t sell tobacco). Both have in house clinics with Nurse Practitioners (Nurses who can Prescribe) so it makes filling a script much easier as they will know what med is IN STOCK @ that particular location. McKesson (MCK) is RED HOT due to the aging population and America’s symbiotic/pathological dependence on chemicals, so I also am a big fan of Pfizer (PFE) as well as (TEVA), the worlds 4th largest generic company out of Israel. THE BEST FINANCIAL STOCK, BAR NONE, IS BANK OF INTERNET HOLDINGS (BOFI). The other secular trend that is unmistakable is mobile communications. Stocks like American Tower (AMT) is only going UP, along with Skyworks Solutions (SKWS). Telecoms like China Mobile (CHL), Vodafone (VOD), AT&T (T), and (Verizon(VZ) are all stocks with enormous capital appreciation potential as well as very generous dividends, my favorite being CHL, VOD, and T—VZ has shit-tons of debt due to Vodafone and Vodafone is wisely deploying lots of the eventual TOTAL $160Bn that VZ paid them for their 45% ownership stake and creating markets in Africa and esp. India! Telenor, (TELNF) Norways telecom giant, is also a great way to diversify out of the dollar in a terrific telecom company with a hefty yield. Finally, for these phones to work, and to embrace the future IoT, stocks like Sierra Wireless (SWIR), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Broadcom (BRCM), CalAMP (Camp) and Invensense (INVN) will continue to grow. Apple is booming right now b/c it has a slew of new products, namely the IWatch and ICurrency, both of which will be coming to market in March-later the iTV and iCar. Defensively, on cybersecurity front, (AVG), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Checkpoint Software (CHKP), FireEye(FEYE, Fortinet (FTNT) SourceFire (Fire), Cisco (CSCO) and when IPOed, Pantair will be HOT. The ETF, the ONLY CYBER SECURITY ETF (HACK) is up 18% from $25-$28 since Feb and a great way to play the whole sector! Physical Defensive Firebrands include Raytheon (RTN), Lockheed Martin (LMT), LIII Communications (LIII), Northrup Grumman (NOC), Elbit Systems (ESLT)-Best in Brand Drone Designer out of Israel, Aerovironment (AVAV)-Smaller but pure play on Drones. Finally, when it comes to food, BUY KROGER-(KR) is the largest supermarket and as prices sneak up ever higher, and their stores continue to carry winning organic food supplier HAIN Celestial, Kroger will keep climbing! Costco is awfully pricEy, but a great stock BUT NOT WORTH .5 KROGER SHARES FOR 1 COST SHARE. Of all the Oil stocks ‘On Sale’, I like Statoil (STO), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B). Oil servicers, I’m a fan of Schlumberger (SLB), CoreLabs N.V. (CLB), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), & Haliburton (HAL). These are the last tickers I’m bullish on……DIS, AWK, BITA, BA, DAL, LUV, Airbus (EADSY), V, MA, QCOM, FB, KR, BWA, GNRC, GE, DE, INTC, MSFT, IACI, VEEV, HCA, CNC, THC, CRVL, UNH, IRBT, SLW, FNV, PAAS, SSRI, GG, NEM, BRIZF, VLKAY, SRCL, LH, BAMXF, TTM, HXL, HACK, CYB, EUO, GOOGL, & OF COURSE AAPL!!!!
A little off-topic (just a little), but I have an idea of the month, maybe of the year. I sent it out today (Saturday, Feb 21st) to my service, but also posted it for everyone at my Free Public Chart Archive. Here is how it begins, followed with a link to the complete article:
“Apple and Tesla
sitting in a tree,
K-I-S-S-I-N-G.
First comes love,
then comes marriage,
then comes baby
in an electric carriage!”
http://www.allantrends.com/category/public-archives/
Speaking of snow, I just saw a segment on Fox News (Saturday edition) that featured a Wisconsin man who built a 22-foot snowman for his daughter. Can you imagine the impossible standard that he has set for other dads in the snow belt ?
Long $PLOW.
Afterthought: There may be collateral costs for the Wisconsin dad. In some of the more “progressive” states, such creative innovation could be rewarded with a nuisance abatement lawsuit and/or local government agency action to mandate building a 6-foot tall fence (extending out to a radius of 25 feet) to protect looky-lou’s from the imminent danger presented by the inevitable collapse of the 22-foot tall snowman!
$EBIX is a possible Short Squeeze play. This has been a hated stock for years and has been a short squeezed before. The shorts do not like the CEO and have ganged up on him for years. EBIX has had legal issues for years but seems to work their way out each time without much damage to bottom line. They make money and pay a small div. and grow by acquiring small company’s in a fragmented market. Short interest is 40% of float, 12M shares. http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=ebix&submit=Short+Quote%99
The stock price has had a good move up the last week but only one day of high volume.
When/if the shorts start covering Ebix could have a big move. I am long and have played this stock in short squeeze’s twice before. If it happens you have to get out fast or have a target with sell limit order.
“A leading international supplier of On-Demand software and E-commerce services to the insurance, financial and healthcare industries, Ebix, Inc., (EBIX) provides end-to-end solutions ranging from infrastructure exchanges, carrier systems, agency systems and risk compliance solutions to custom software development for all entities involved in the insurance industry.”
I just signed up and became a member, I have been reading the post and I am very interested in investing and reading about other investors idea and opinions. I need to find a good broker for a new bee, HELP PLEASE!!
Welcome Jonathon, you’ve made a smart move by subscribing – but did you mean “fee?” (Not “bee.) Do you mean an online brokerage with low or no commissions, or a full service broker?
I am not really sure,I hate to say it but I know very little either. I believe I would like a online broker, could I get infor on the difference.