Discussion re $ARTH
by alanh | August 1, 2015 7:40 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/08/microblog-discussion-re-arth/
This is painful. Just painful I tell you. Some news! Some news! My Kingdom for some news!
Amen bonz…maybe you can take your tricorder and diagnose the problem. I’m gonna die of old age or boredom if ARTH doesn’t get er done pretty soon.
Meanwhile, phasers set to stun. Carry on…..
Still a believer but wanted to lighten my OWW position in light of all the other wonderful opportunities, I kept telling myself to wait until it moved up, but every time I checked it had gone down. I could say I am hopeful, but as Oscar Wilde stated “The basis of optimism is pure terror”
What has been pulling the stock down? Three entities that approached $ARTH about putting in $ 6 million cash in 24 hour period in Feb 2017.
This summarizes the Arch Offering $6.0 millioin–10,166,664 shares at $ .60 and Series F 5,591,300 warrants at $ .75 share in Feb 2017
http://ir.archtherapeutics.com/all-sec-filings/content/0001144204-17-009992/0001144204-17-009992.pdf
These three institutions have participated in every Arch private placement since 2013.(5 offerings with total raised of $ 24,207,274). These three institutions are not long term holders but flip out their shares and warrants.
Each invested approximately $ 2 million
Anson Investments Master Fund LP
CVI Investments, Inc.
Intracostal Capital
These entities are FLIPPERS and not long term investors. They flip out for a couple pennies. This has caused the downdraft as they have been unable to unload above $.60 on 10 million shares. I have seen these entities finance other biotechs.
Go look at the trading since Feb. 2017.
Thanks Cleveland. I am sure no where else on the internet one will find such useful and detailed information. While its its not fun at all to see the price sliding down, I am not worried. Specially in light of what you just presented to all of us. Waiting for end of September to roll in quickly. Next three months are going to be very exciting for Arch. Long ARTH.
Thank you Achandra. You’re clarity and reason is always refreshing.
Let me add some more color for thought.
Show me a forum biotech stock that:
1) Based upon the science of AC5 human trails should be a walk in the park IMHO. IMHO $ARTH is low risk and high return. $ARTH has over 200 +- AC5 applications in numerous medical fields. It is my hope that AC5 will change the medical profession completely.
Show me another biotech in the forum that has such stellar science and potential?
2) $ARTH is most unusual pick in the forum from the standpoint of tiny capital to be committed or raised to reach the endzone for completion of human trials and be acquired. Tiny.
Since going public in 2013 $ARTH has raised $ 24,207,274. As you know Curam is assisting in funding in Europe trials.
Show me another biotech in the forum that requires so little capital to success?
I estimate that approximately $ 5 to $ 7 million of additional capital will be required for competition of all human trials. I am hoping whoever does the European JV (Johnson & Johnson, Baxter) will put up a large up front fee.
People whine about Norchi going to conferences and presenting to empty rooms. Who cares? He needs little capital and is doing these to update you and I. Notice how he adds more color to Arch everytime he speaks?
3) Show me a biotech stock that takes less than 5-10 years for completion. I know what Dr. Norchi has said but I feel he makes unrealistic goals to drive himself. It makes little difference if the endzone is achieved. To dwell on this makes little sense to me.
4) Dr. Norchi over the last couple years has aced the competition with his 45 patents that he quietly filed but he is not given credit for. As $ARTH shareholder the acquirer will pay for Dr. Norchi efforts here. The new products beyond AC5 are a huge bonus. Dr. Norchi was a complete master at pulling this off !!
Show me another forum biotech that has completely aced its competitors out?
Show me another forum biotech stock where Dr. KSS has stated:
” I wouldn’t exclude the science being considered for a Nobel prize because of the elite engineering and the profound understanding of how proteins can be engineered that it embodies, and because of the benefits to mankind: shorter surgery, lives saved from trauma, less blood transfused, less morbidity and mortality associated with the ubiquitous medical mission of chasing and stanching bleeding.”
I have been in the stock market since 1978. I have analyzed 1,000’s of companies. I have never seen anything like $ARTH. Yes it is a rollercoaster. But the potential impact on the medical profession and our lives as humans is immense.
My grandchildren will be going to college on $ARTH profits and they will tell the $ARTH story to their children. Oh and they are one to seven so I have plenty of time here.
As our fearless leader Dr. KSS has stated we are not likely to see another $ARTH in our lifetimes. So enjoy the ride !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for all the good information, Cleveland. You’re a gem.
I just wish $ARTH wouldn’t keep giving me these “buying opportunities”.
While getting nervous about an oversupply of retail space, I just sold my favorite REIT $ROIC, and the cash is going to burn a hole in my Schwab pocket. So many places to put it; so little brain to make a decision, sigh.
Penny
Nothing wrong with dry powder.
Still playing around with GlennWarren excel Spreadsheet to see if it will talk to me about how to allocate to the various biotechs here.
The big unknown for a lot of these biotechs (not $ARTH) how much additional capital will have to be raised to get through Phase 3 and at what price will it have to be raised?? In other words what will the dilution be?
Regarding “empty rooms,” the LD Micro Conference had over 1,000 institutional attendees, and Norchi said from the podium that he had a full house.
Good to hear. Thanks.
Thanks JohnM. The more the word is spread the better.
IMHO $ARTH
OK Cleveland you convinced me. As Mickey Mouse so eloquently stated “”Don’t stress over anything you can’t change. Always appreciative of your time, effort, and wisdom
$ARTH…I made up my mind when I started building a position that I would stay long that way unless something FUNDAMENTAL about AC5 and its prospects changed materially for the worse.
My own target was for a very large market cap and hence stock price multiple in 3 to 5 years from the date that a first product was actually in the market.
I am still long but have reduced my position, at a substantial profit. I have a full but not overweight position. It was a little deflating to sell at 60 cents when one was hoping for dollars. But then I realized my entries were good enough so that there was profit.
The main reason for my reduction was not short-term price action, but because I saw other opportunities that I felt would materialize in a much quicker and defined time frame. It was the more specific nature of these opportunities with respect to time frames that forced me to consider the length of time that will be required to see ARTH achieve its potential.
Long $ARTH
TN has stated all year that they are filing for the 510K by Mid-summer. He stated that as recently as the beginning of this month. Today is the first day of summer. Summer is 103 days long, if I counted right, ends on Sept 22. That would place Mid-summer at right around 10 Aug. Give me a +- of 10 days and we should hear about the 510K sometime between Aug 1 and Aug 20. Being that we are talking about paperwork, I would not be surprised if it drifts into September. I would not be happy, but not surprised. All good things come to those who wait or something like that, correct?
Thanks rlamore, but not sure where you heard mid summer. Their website downloadable presentation states “Submit 510(k) filing for external use to US FDA ~mid-year 2017”. Mid year would be closer to July 1. Wouldn’t want you to miss it.
The performance chart doesn’t look good and I feel for all those who have been waiting so long. With the passion and persuasion of Cleveland I’ve decided to add and go overweight on this one very soon. If it pops with the 510k approval I will not have earned it the way others have. I’ll thank you now for your suffering, and will try to pay it forward.
eemajin We went through a similar exercise in 2016 re CE mark and were disappointed. I eemajin,,, imagine, that could again happen but I will continue to hold $ARTH and expect payoff to make it worthwhile.
eemajin, there is nothing wrong with trading and timing, as though it meant you didn’t have long term hopes for a company. Making money is what we’re all trying to do, so I’m all for learning more tools than just sitting for years on a long term position. I am trying a little of both as an emotional anchor, a small position that stays long, while I trade in and out with another portion. At this I am a newbie, and love listening to others explaining their rationale.
You are correct, that is what their Website presentation states. I cannot find where I read the mid-summer timeframe, but it is stuck in my mind. I hope mid-2017 is correct!! If we do the +- 10 days, that would mean we should hear about the 510K between today and the 10th of July.
Deleted by author because message was posted in the wrong thread.
My apologies!
Rusty, there is no need to worry about whether or not this product works or not. It does. It’s had a short trial on skin incisions, and is working to get its CE mark, but in addition, the first ‘generation’ of this product has been trailed by another company internally, and all has done well – no problems, no side effects, it acts as expected. Dr KSS was always sure this would be true as he understands the science. This other company, 3D Matrix doesn’t have the right to sell its product as a hemostat, and in addition, AC5 is a much improved version from the original. Norchi has been improving the product, writing up patents, and warding off patent challenges, and doing it all on a small budget. Time is the factor here, and its not so much an if as a when. We hoped for more progress than this a year ago, so its taken patience, but we are now definitely a year closer to the CE mark, etc.
We now have a lot of choices of companies with real upside potential, and it can be hard to pick and choose, but ARTH is one I have always had some capital in. I would kick myself if it suddenly flew up and I was out of it.
$ARTH – Posted this in the Current Dr. KSS thread as well.
With our optimism running high that ARTH will be submitting their 510K for AC5 external usage in the near future, I was wondering how long it would take for it to be approved. I found this info that seems a good summary on average length of approvals for 510Ks: https://www.meddeviceonline.com/doc/how-long-does-the-fda-k-review-process-really-take-0001
The average is 5 months with 2 out of 3 being approved within 6 months. The FDA sets a goal of 90 days for approval, but that apparently is hardly ever meet because of AI’s (Additional Information Requests).
So I was wondering what our Gummie thoughts are on how long this should take for ARTH? To me, this seems dirt simple, it is applied, it seals, and it does no harm. I would think we should be <5 months. Of course what do I know, I work in the IT world, not the medical world.
$ARTH your logic is very good here rlamore. Unfortunately, what would seem to be impeccable logic often does not work well in regards to timing for microcap companies. Here’s hoping that logic prevails in this case and AC5 gets to the market sooner than expected.
$ARTH long Nice move today on no known news. Ironically, ARTH seems to be “leaky” when it comes to news. The stock always seems to have a big move just before there is significant news. Management possibly need to apply AC5 to their lips.
Arch is setting up to move higher in the coming weeks. Look at the range today. It touched high of $0.65. Sweet 🙂 !
Range: 0.54 – 0.65
Volume: 664,048
Long OW.
Today’s move made me feel much better – up $10K profit (but then back to $5K before I had time to brag). But that’s OK because I play with a bunch of Gold Miners and have gotten used to a lot more volatility so I just sit and wait. I have faith – hoping for a $10 buyout ($1.5 billion – sounds ridiculously crazy but you never know.)
I would lower my expectations for $3-$4 buyout max. $10 is not gonna happen my friend 🙂 .
@mobilecc – if you’re wondering why you’re getting TDs (thumbs down), it’s no doubt because you are mentioning specific dollar amounts.
Please tell us your good news in percentages. or cents per share, but not the actual amounts. We have enough math background to be able to work out what your shareholding is.
It’s our etiquette around here and as a relatively new Irregular, somebody will remind you, but nicely.
Yours nicely,
Penny
@mobilecc – I agree with DunnyDame. Don’t let it get to you – just remember it for the next time…I added a TU to balance. Older posters, you see by his thumb count he is new…go easy.
I think they are close to completing the approval process for this unique technique to stop blood loss in trauma or surgery. I expect they would be a good takeover target after securing the completion of their tests on humans who had dermatological work done.
Nick – ARTH has not filed for 510(k) approval yet, so in that sense they haven’t even started the approval process. I wouldn’t want you to be disappointed. Approval probable by year-end.
Don’t know what you mean by “securing the completion” of the derm test. They are done.
We’ve breached the Ichimoku Cloud! We’ve breached the Ichimoku Cloud! By the way, I have no idea what that means.
https://evergreencaller.com/arch-therapeutics-inc-arth-price-holds-above-ichimoku-cloud/
Thank you Dr. Bonz for the Evergreen Caller article on $ARTH.
It is good to hear from you!
The following link http://www.ichimokutrader.com/
yields information about the Ichimoku Cloud. Best2You – Ben
$ARTH
$Ichmoku cloud is a term used in technical analysis. it usually defines the support, resistance and direction of the stock’s current trading trend.
In this case, it likely meant that $ARTH had breached resistance and reverted to the uptrend.
Hope this helps.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud
Thanks guys. What started out as a (attempted) humerus post has brought me further education. 🙂
@drbonz Love your “humerus” response. Like @mseager says, waiting for positive news on $ARTH gets tibia little tedious.
I see what you did there….. 🙂
Every time someone posts to this thread I get excited that there’s news……and then there isn’t 🙁 Patience really is a virtue with this company 🙂
if it is of any condolence, mseager, _something_ is happening today. let’s hope that something is actually materializing for long-term and we all can benefit out of it 🙂