written by reader James Dale Davidson “The Age of Deception”

By xiexgp@gmail.com, August 27, 2015

It seems Mr. Davidson is predicting a Black Swan event soon with the stock market wipeout of 50% or more due to fewer people trading, margin debt, that is, borrowing to invest; stock buy backs that obviously drive stock prices higher for the short term and our overall debt situation. Any thoughts on his predictions and potential opportunities (Other than buying another book and newsletter) since he was correct in almost all the other financial events that have impacted our financial and investing lives.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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Moneyman1Vijay MehtaPRESTON EDMONDSONAmarTravis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe Recent comment authors

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Tom L
Guest
Tom L

Confidence is the name of the game, all right. We can all see that this house-of-cards, like an avalanche, is poised for a tumble. Too many of Davidson’s charts are aligned in an undeniable path of severe downward motion. Collapse, correction, adjustment, negative growth (my favorite) or any of a dozen other terms all apply. The problem is that we are turning blue holding our collective breath anticipating the answer to the big question of “when?” Just like the analogy of a “Big Avalanche”, the smallest flake could trigger the collapse of any of the key indicators on those scary… Read More ยป

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Here we are 10 months after the thread started on James Dale Davidson, and while the Black Swan has not appeared it seems to me that the instability and uncertainty has intensified. Some may feel justified in saying Davidson is wrong about his outlook; I do not feel this way, I rather feel we have been fortunate that an unspecified Black Swan calamity or secular financial meltdown has not yet occurred. There is a world of difference in seeing the macro picture accurately, and being able to translate that into specific investments that are timely and that will profit. And… Read More ยป

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d allen
Guest

Just another cycle in the American economy.
No debt or very little gets you thru almost anything.

Serge d'Adesky
Guest

Hi, I’m a financial advisor, who struggles with these issues on behalf of my clients and my own portfolio every single day. Generally speaking, I agree with the premise that we are on the cusp of a significant market correction, something on the order of 35-60%. And yes, many of the reasons that Mr Davidson states are accurate causes. Missing from his picture is another source of global malaise: namely the rapid pace of change in technology which is displacing workers in all fields at a faster rate than people can learn new skills and pursue new careers. But I… Read More ยป

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SoGiAm
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘11466

Thank you Serge for sharing your time, talents and strategies. Best2U4U-Ben

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Thanks Serge. Thoughtful and thorough.

I agree with the thrust of your paragraph on farmland and gold…a page out of Rickards.
But I do not see a suitable way to invest in farmland. Any suggestions ?

And debt reduction is a sure 20% return…at least on credit card debt.

I have trouble with a lot of the financial instruments on account of the “[biggest risk] [of] raging inflation and rising interest rates”. I think these are unpredictable in time, but are ultimately unavoidable given the
policies of the Powers that Be.

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CC
Guest
CC

Thank you Serge for your grounded, rational analysis. It took you awhile to put all that together and your effort is appreciated. I got to this thread after a week of Davidson in my inbox with a relentless marketing campaign geared to scare the bejesus out of anyone paying attention for more than five minutes. Now, maybe he is right about a lot of stuff and he is sincere in helping us all out with his clarion call that the end is nigh. His crack “team” is going to ply us with option picks for the next year at $1495… Read More ยป

arch1
Member
๐Ÿ‘7795

I think you have it about right, Thanks.

Doug McEachran
Guest
Doug McEachran

Watching the video and looking forward to getting the book.

Graem
Guest
Graem

Bought a lifetime subscription in the 80’s to strategic investment. By the 90’s as he prospered it started coming with an annual maintenance fee that wasn’t mentioned when I helped him get started. When I complained the letter stopped coming altogether. I wonder who died?

Ricardo
Guest
Ricardo

I listened to his presentation to the end and he did not mention the currency that would sustain value. Even gold is just gold — it’s uses for jewelry are well-known, but you cannot really do much with it otherwise; more can be done with silver.

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Hi Ricardo… I disagree on gold. Gold is money; silver also. It is only since the rise of the international central banks that the public has been brainwashed to believe otherwise. Currencies come and go. Gold and silver remain. James Dale Davidson’s The Age of Deception is extremely entertaining and thought-provoking but does not provide a lot of practical investment advice. The closing chapter has 20 recommended actions, but only one specific investment: ACCUMULATE GOLD AND SILVER. I highly recommend The Age of Deception, even though Davidson is sure to be wrong on several things. He makes so many controversial… Read More ยป

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Ricardo
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Ricardo

Hi hendrixnuzzles, thanks for your input. Rickards reports that the Chinese are secretly hording gold; he states on Money Morning back in May 2016 that China ships the physical gold into their country without reporting the amounts anywhere institutionally. The curious thing about any of these metals is that they are only acceptable to someone willing to accept them. You cannot eat them — they cannot sustain one’s health. It seems that much more valuable is food and water, including salt. So, farm animals and securing land and water rights may be even more valuable — if the rights can… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Hi Ricardo. The Chinese government has built up their gold reserves to achieve a degree of parity with other leading governments, and they have succeeded to a great degree. They also encourage their citizens to accumulate gold…there is no shortage of gold bullion stores in China, where you can walk in and buy gold ingots over the counter. The Chinese people recognize that gold is money…always has been, always will be, no matter what the elites and fancy economists say. And the Chinese would like to exchange some of the bazillion paper dollars they have from our purchases of TVs… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

From Wallethub, quarterly data on US credit card debt, edited:

2016 Credit Card Debt Study: …Credit card debt statistics… reflect consumer sentiment and can foretell overleveraging bubbles that may trigger constriction across lending markets.

…U.S. consumers racked up a record-setting $34.4 billion in credit card debt during the second quarter of 2016…[this is] serious cause for concern…

Not only was this the largest second-quarter debt build-up since at least 1986…but it also comes [after last year when] we added the most credit card debt ($71 billion) since 2007. And last quarter marked the smallest Q1 pay-down ($27.5 billion) since 2008.

I hate scams
Guest
I hate scams

Oh my goodness people does anyone here know how to investigate a person, or if the company is legitimate? Apparently not. This ad is a way to scare people out of money; period. Davidson is not a secret economist he is a nobody that sold out to take advantage of people who actually buy into this crap. So by all means instead of actually researching Davidson, and the publishing company selling this crap; go ahead and sign up, and watch this ‘world famous economist’ wipe out your bank account before you know what has happened.

Guest
Guest

The US dollar is dead. Our FED is purchasing our bonds because other countries are not. Specifically China, Russia, India, and 23 others. They are promoting a basket of currencies to usurp the dollar for trading. Once they have 57-60 countries as partners, they will act. Even England, Mexico, and Canada have joined. God help us.

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Old Pizza
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Old Pizza

For openers, Davidson is NOT an economist.

Amar
Guest
Amar

I am uncertain about his qualifications, but irrelevant in my opinion. The same as “old pizza” was made by great cooks who did not go to culinary schools, but has its place in our gastronomy. Davidson make a lot of sense and his analysis of the strongest cracks weakening the foundation of our castle are real. If you disagree with his observations, let it be known! Perhaps you may have a better synthesis and, therefore, suggest better solutions to protect a self-good for you! As I am concerned, I will buy this book.

Vijay Mehta
Guest
Vijay Mehta

The book is free why would you buy it?

James
Guest
James

test

nathan
Guest

I am always a bit skeptical when someone makes a glowing presentation of impending doom and then offers to sell me a solution for it (newsletter)

Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
Admin
๐Ÿ‘15043

Wise words

PRESTON EDMONDSON
Guest

He has been making these same “predictions”, since 1982! Look him up. He wavers in the wind like Harry Dent!

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Moneyman1
Guest
Moneyman1

IMHO the black swan swimming toward this market is the resignation/impeachment of Trump – and if you believe such an event is probable, why not buy some downside protection with TZA, Direxion 3x RUT bear ETF??

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