James Dale Davidson “The Age of Deception”It seems Mr. Davidson is predicting a Black Swan event soon with the stock market wipeout of 50% or more due to fewer people trading, margin debt, that is, borrowing to invest; stock buy backs that obviously drive stock prices higher for the short term and our overall debt situation. Any thoughts on his predictions and potential opportunities (Other than buying another book and newsletter) since he was correct in almost all the other financial events that have impacted our financial and investing lives.
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Davidson and others call an unpredictable impact event “black swan”;
Rickards uses chaos and complexity theory to hypothesize an eventual financial meltdown resulting from any one of a number of unstable and inherently unknowable sources,
many being quite minor.
I tend to agree with these points of view. The problem is deciding how to prepare.
Hello,
Where can I obtain a copy for cheap?
A quick search reveals that the book is available only in used form, and that it’s $200.
Do you know why it’s so expensive?
Thanks
You can get the book free when you subscribe to his monthly newsletter. Just go to the site below and watch his video to get the book:
https://research.thesovereigninvestor.com/X190R916
Looks like if you go to the end of his recorded presentation and keep saying no to the offers, you will eventually be given an offer to buy the book for $19 and an introductory subscription which is not a lot if you can cancel in time. I did not find the same offer on his website, although it may be buried somewhere on the site.
I subscribed to the newsletter but do not see the book. How do I view it?
Just think, one day our enemies will be buying our debt because others cannot and that’s the only way to keep the scheme moving forward. Everyone knows there is only one long term way out…….massive loss of life and poof, your unfunded liabilities go away
The baby boomers won’t live forever. They ship starts righting itself around 2050. Went through the same thing in 59/60 before the baby boomers arrived.
There are now more millennials born than there were boomers born after WW2. If we can get them all gainfully employed, they should be able to support the government’s Ponzi scheme for at least another 40 years. 🙂 Better yet, pay them well and we will experience the government surplus that we had in the mid-90s — during those times, company’s were begging for good employees; sign-on bonus’ and great wages were all the rage. 🙂
The ship will not right itself as long as we have the Fed and fiat money.
http://www.pdfarchive.info/pdf/G/Gr/Griffin_G_Edward_-_The_Creature_from_Jekyll_Island.pdf
How does one protect the equity in their real estate holdings?
It’s not cheap. You can hedge against the case shiller index on the futures market, which might offer some protection from a crash, but for most real estate investors it’s cash flow that they’re worried about, not equity value. They need cash flow to cover the mortgage, which means the real risk is local economic conditions and potential rents — not the actual resale value of the real estate, which isn’t that meaningful unless you need to sell it.
I don’t think the home value indices are shortable in ETF form, so you’d have to use the actual futures market.
YOU TAKE THE EQUITY OUT NOW SO THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE…
You may not be able to. But if you have good tenants you will have income, no matter what the nominal price of the property is. If everything goes to hell, the property still is has a real and relative value. At least, that’s how I am looking at it.
For example…I have a property free and clear, no mortgage, for which I get $800 a month in net income. Of course It is better if I went to sell it if the property could fetch $100,000; but if it is only worth $75,000, I am still getting the $800 per month regardless.
The issue is whether you are too highly leveraged or not, and whether you will be able to survive a devaluation in prices.
How do you figure $800 a month? You still have taxes and insurance to pay — that will wipe out most of the income – then any repairs, that all homes eventually need, wipes out the rest. And that is only assuming a good tenant…if they loose their job (and have kids) you’ll be fighting for months to get them evicted; factor in attorney’s fees, time lost from work – and then you had better hope they are not vindictive and destroy your home before they leave.
I figure $ 800 a month because that is my NET INCOME after I pay the taxes and insurance. The gross rent is more than $800 a month.
Watched the entire video. One prediction that was made is obviously incorrect. He states that the collapse is not 6 months away. From the date of these posts to today it has been nearly a year. Maybe we’ll see another drop over the next few months, but I’m betting that it will be more like the drops last summer with the crisis in Greece, and then the China meltdown. It didn’t take years to recoup those losses. I’ve heard that there is typically a 10% correction nearly every year, so I expect that could happen, but I sincerely doubt the 50% prediction. And never figured out how savings could lose 30% as he predicted.
Your saving could lose 30% when you deposit $100 and when you are ready to withdraw the money you can only use it to purchase a $70 worth of goods. It’s called Inflation!
If I may expand a little. Davidson cites various factors that he thinks will result in a sharp market devaluation. He may be right about the result, but wrong about the specific triggers.
The things he cites may make a decline more severe but aren’t necessarily the “cause”
of the downdraft.
Rickards also points to many factors that create a lot of risk…the complexity of world finances and psychology, government policies, fiat money policies, out-of-control debt, world interconnectedness, and political instability; but says that it is impossible to redict what exactly will trigger a meltdown, that a minor event can lead to major events.
This is the thinking of chaos theory, that a small change in conditions can send complex systems out of equilibrium.
To paraphrase, Rickards imagines an unstable snowpack on a mountain that has the potential to become an avalanche on the village below. The snow keeps falling on the snowpack, making it more and more unstable. As more and more snow is added,
the eventual collapse of the snowpack becomes more and more certain, even though the exact timing cannot be predicted, nor can the individual snowflake be identified that
will send the whole thing crashing down. But at some point the thing becomes very unstable, and one snowflake dislodges a few others, which dislodge even more, and then…comes the avalanche. It is immaterial which snowflake starts the disaster.
There are many of these economists that are predicting events like this…… What none of them are including in their predictions is that Elected Officials, and the people they put in power, will Lie about the status of the True Economy and that despite the US spending Billions on the Department of Education, the masses are ignorant on how our money works, how the stock market works, and how the economy works.
Just like China’s recent stock market crash, the Chinese Government comes in using their heavy hand and forces banks to loan, short sellers to stop selling short and people who want to sell to remove themselves from the downfall to hang on and not sell. Their stock market is a complete sham and house of cards. However, a month later the masses (and the idiot money managers that they give their money to) are back buying Chinese stocks as if nothing had just happened. As if the Wizard of Oz had not just been revealed behind the Chinese Stock Market and Currency.
That is the one thing that is not being factored into the doomsday sayers….. Just like the IRAQI Foreign Press Minister when he was standing at the Baghdad Airport saying that the Americans have not taken over when you could see American tanks in the background while he was claiming that.
It’s all a complete mess…..
Gen X starterd in 1960. Baby boomers after WW2. The Avalanche analogy is flawed in a fundamental way. Gradual snow pack doesn’t cause it. Fluctuations in temperature, snow density, etc. play a factor(s) in it. Like “the market”, good luck explaining it in a newsletter or snow analogy. Greed and Fear drive markets (well, nano second trading plays a part) plain and simple. Some technology may temporarily game the system. But it’s already stacked against anyone that might even see this ramble of a reply… Guy called for it in August 2015 and markets have basically held, dropped, recovered since then. Basically, I say “it’s going to rain soon”. It will, at some point, for certain. That doesn’t mean you should subscribe to my newsletter or that I’m a genius because it rained 8 and 17 years ago…
I thought his explanation was well stated and easy to understand. Of course other factors enter in, I’m not a scientist or Ph.D. in Earth Science but I understand that the temperature of the snow underneath, the composition of the ground surface underneath, etc., play a part, but it is something as simple as the snowflake (the straw that broke the camel’s back) or a vibration, that sets it all off, and I believe that is where our market is right now. How long can “false” forces hold it high? I believe that we are momentarily safe because the entire world is such a mess, we are, at the moment, considered a safe haven.
Also, I don’t believe greed (a very pejorative word) is the appropriate word to use. I’m not greedy, I’m realistic. I am a 70 year old, single female who has worked since I was 14 years old. It’s been years since I could hold my money in a retirement savings account and hope to keep up with inflation, so where do I place my money with the hopes of increasing it’s value?…the stock market. Am I looking to “make” huge amounts of money? No, I just want to stay even with our inflationary economy. Am I afraid of losing my money, you bet your booty I am. I can’t afford to lose something I am not capable of making again. A wise acquaintance told me to exit the market before the 2008 drop. He said it was going to be like the Savings and Loan Crisis but with banks. He said I was too old to lose money. I checked with a local “expert” recommended by friends who leaned back smugly in his chair and told me that my acquaintance was blowing smoke. A month later I decided it wouldn’t hurt to go to all cash, just to protect myself, against the advise of my wise and wealthy friends. Two weeks later the bottom fell out of the market. My wise acquaintance would not advise me about getting back into the market because he felt any advances after 2008 were false moves, rather like Andersen’s “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. I agree with him but it doesn’t help to know what to do with one’s money to keep it safe and not lose value.
Ah, yes, I do follow these promos, esp. the Market collapse guys….. I love Rickards, he shorts emerging markets and have made money on paper buying puts on GM . Davidson laid out his gloom and doom in a very well presented logical manner, but I dont buy his imminent collapse theory, but well worth watching….and Larry Edelson is featured in a nice documentary called The Forecaster (on Amazon to download or stream) talking about Martin Armstrong. I wonder if Edelson is using Armstrong’s algorithms, as he is now promoting Super Cycle Trader, showing 6 our of 7 long cycles are converging on OCt 8th that will cause a collapse….Rickards feels the most impt date of the year is Sept 17 when the FOMC of the Fed meets and decides to raise rates or not (Rickards has been saying NO Way) for awhile now….Armstongeconomics.com is launching Socrates soon, check there, sounds good and priced low…
I think there is truth to the idea that disequilibrium could be triggered by something unpredictable. There are so many things that could go wrong that could precipitate
or exacerbate a general financial crisis. But exactly when, what and how cannot be predicted with any certainty at all, and in the “black swan” idea there is the chance that there will be an occurrence of something that has never been seen before.
Could the next thing that destabilizes the world market place have to do with Russia and oil…?
Pres. G.W. Bush once said “oil is gold” so if he made a astounding statement but who was listening, investors were, he indicated that Gold and Oil were on equal playing fields, I think the cause for a stock crash most likely will be all nations dependent on oil for their gain and profits. And if currency is totally affected, even turned to tissue paper and of no value, then Gold will go up and is better than oil. The markets were over inflated anyhow, present markets run on the value of Oil….and wars make for odd partnering. and So far, we have not seen that one to come just yet WWIII that will shake the world and its confidence. the USA could find it is being attack by their old enemies. Too investors using only credit to ‘bet’ or buy stocks, will be the ones to cause this down fall, as well. Too much lending and not enough tightening. Look back at 1929, many investor were using credit alone and banks allowed it, and they all lost; banks closed up and many more went belly up. History repeats itself, many were ruined and many others lost but regained as they invested on trustworthy Blue Chip stocks, that hold their value, and eventually went back up. Clearly nations who are trillions of dollars in debt will be the main cause of this next depression or recession and especially USA; and as you watch Greece, she borrowed and cannot repay, she is doomed already and Can’t climb back up. They may have to go bankrupt and get forgiveness of the loans and go back to their own monetary system backed by Gold.
Banks have to tighten lending, and call in notes, those who cannot pay now will not be able to pay later on. They are using “monopoly” credit, fake money, and there is no one to rescue them. It will be a complete domino affect… and who is left to bail each other out,, probably no one will be left. Next step who will clean up the mess.
Debt forgiveness should start now by nations, slowly. those who owe trillions, and begin sooner, than later. that is my view as simplistic as it sounds. “All bets” are off and only gold will be left standing as technology moves in an entire different direction oil will be part of the past, not the future.
I believe Davidson is a realist. The facts he presents…..can anyone doubt? How this evolves is anyone’s speculation. Personally, I am fully invested in the market. Many of the same investments HX and Dr. KSS has recommended. However, this country and economy are experiencing a serious financial, moral and leadership crisis.
My wife is like a spider in a web. She “feels” the vibrations without actually seeing exactly what is causing them. In March of 2005, she told me we “have to sell all our property now.” I had no idea where that came from, but she suddenly was quite sure about it. I asked her “Why? We have a policy of keeping property unless there is good reason to sell. What’s the reason here to sell ‘all of it, now?'” She said, “Stuff I’ve been noticing, lately.” I said, “What stuff? Do you have anything in particular that I should read?” She didn’t at the moment, but knew what kinds of things to look for. She’s a “surface reader” who “scans” but doesn’t read entire whitepapers. So she looked and happened upon a few very detailed, very good reports by analysts. One of them I remember in particular, the one that actually made me decide to agree with her and sell everything right away, was a paper by a Canadian analyst.
In that paper, over 80 pages long, the analyst provided specific copies of 30 separate mortgage papers on the same underlying property (specific example to illustrate his broader case) sold in the same year under the names of 30 different banks and all signed by the same authorizing signature. The property was in 30 different bundled packages at the same time! There were many other factors, but the analyst’s point was that it would only take a modest “uptick in mortgage failures” to cause owners of these packages to start investigations which would collectively uncover much of this and cause a rapid unraveling. I read other papers detailing other factors. But the point about the fact that a modest uptick in mortgage failures causing each of these threads to become sufficiently exposed to start a rapid unraveling became quite clear in my mind.
So we sold our properties over the year, starting in the summer of 2005 and completing everything by the summer of 2006, at a net of over 5 times what we’d paid for the properties. We were complete clear of any of the troubles that followed.
Small things can cause long-growing areas of weakness to suddenly come under the bright light of examination and study. Anything left without meaningful controls and active monitoring will be areas exploited with imagination and greed. Given long enough times, these areas will become rotten and porous like a structural beam of wood that has been left unprotected and exposed to the action of dry rot for a long time. Eventually, it just collapses. And then so do many other things that depended upon it, as well. And so on. That’s what happened starting (in my mind) circa 2007 — a collapse of a few key structures led to a serious mess.
There are many more fundamentals that weren’t even mentioned by Davidson, which are unwinding as we speak. They include environmental, ground water and glacier based fresh water supplies, population growth, and a host of other factors, as well. The tapestry of life itself is unwinding at an exponentially growing rate, which no longer looks the least bit linear. Add to that all of the rest and more.
It’s going to be very interesting times ahead. I suspect that tight knit corporate-styled community structures (and it’s not an easy path, as it’s not “well-worn” or “well-studied” in the context of modern societies) are probably one of the better approaches to insulating against what lies ahead.
I like your post. Does your wife pick up any vibes about anything now? Where do you feel one should invest for the next year or so?
We are focusing on finding key partners, now. Investment is in the right people, together with the right land and infrastructures, both physical as well as policy prescriptions for governing the commons we will share. So it’s now about the kinds of relationships and skill sets you can acquire and continue to create and refine over time, to create a whole and complete micro-society of sorts. We will create a market for buying into and selling out of the society, as well. This market creation aspect is as vital as much of the rest, in order to accommodate real situations that arise over time.
So we are focusing on long-term and active investment, as opposed to short-term and/or passive investment. We need a good “moat” and “castle walls” of sorts, so to speak. The old “united we stand, divided we fall” kind of thing, I guess. And that takes time and effort to develop and sustain over time.
There really aren’t any good passive investments where you don’t also spend a lot of time making sure of the fundamentals. But spending that time means missing out on the right timing for the best advantage of those opportunities. Not spending the time means adding a lot of risk and just hoping you get lucky. All of this has just gotten way too risky (the delays to do the research or the sheer risk of not doing the research and acting more quickly), now. So we aren’t dwelling on either. If you can afford it, you might consider taking delivery on certain commodities (never let someone else hold for you — you can’t trust what they will do when pressed against the wall.) But few are in a position to take delivery, securely and safely. Again, that begs a community following a corporate model of some kind and the right folks on the board and in operational positions.
So it’s back to developing community for us. I’m studying Nobel Prize winner Elinor Ostrom’s “Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action,” circa 1990, for some things to consider, for example. She and her husband contributed a lot of research into this area and carefully examined the key factors in successful communities. There is a lot of other material to weed through. For example, Dmitry Orlov’s “The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors’ Toolkit,” which discusses models from Europe. Sadly, this area is not at all a well-worn path, so it all carries it’s own risks. But with good management we have a good chance that even those risks can be mitigated well enough to survive them over time.
Investment in yourself is your best bet, in my mind. In times like these. Okay. So that’s me, incorporating what my wife says and incorporating it.
However, my wife almost seems to feel the best investment is in a bottle of cyanide capsules. I don’t like to think that way. So the above is how we “compromised.” Hehe.
Anyway, she actually thinks things are going to go downhill fairly quickly — over the next three years or so. What brought me to this site was that just a few days ago she suddenly told me that we need to seriously focus on making some immediate changes. By immediate, I mean … right now. She suddenly had this intuition that we didn’t have till the end of the year, but that we had a month or two at most and that we had to be prepared to act immediately should certain “triggers” she’s watching take place. It came to me as though it was completely out of the blue. We’d been making entirely different plans, much more long term and on a more reasoned pace. I was completely taken by surprise — even knowing her — because she hadn’t been like this since that 2005 moment. So something is in the air, to her. Something soon. Something bad.
So that’s why I started some searches going and found this page. I don’t know what caused me to write, exactly. Something that others had chosen to say. That there wasn’t that much, yet. That I thought I might be able to add something, I guess. Other things, too, perhaps. Anyway, the moment struck and I decided to take a moment and write. But the upshot to your question about what she feels right now is … that she feels RIGHT NOW is the time to worry and plan ahead so you can act very quickly when the moments arrive. It’s why I even found this page. She’s very worried. So we are talking every day and thinking about specifics, so that we can move without debate on the same hour if needed.
I wish I had a working crystal ball, though. 😉
JonK…I am also very concerned…trying to focus on what to do RIGHT NOW when we don’t really know the nature of the bad stuff that’s gonna happen.
If you find a crystal ball at a garage sale, be sure to pick it up.
She is most focused on the actions of the Fed, right now. If they make ANY move, we act. Our situation is unique, so I can’t actually offer anything useful for others. But that’s one trigger she is definitely focused on. There are others.
Funny thing is that I didn’t even know Davidson’s name before coming to this site. I’m only just now finding out about his recent commentary and reading it. I don’t know what to think about him, just yet. I only learned of him through this site because I was just reacting to my wife’s sudden moment of intuition. (She’s probably the smartest person I’ve ever met, but she’s not not a financial person at all. Just a nationally known stand-up comic, nationally recognized [awarded] script writer, and radio voice. A day is never dull here! :))
And yeah. I’ll be sure to snap up any working crystal balls. I can hope. 😉
She is most focused on the actions of the Fed, right now. If they make ANY move, we act. Our situation is unique, so I can’t actually offer anything useful for others. But that’s one trigger she is definitely focused on. There are others.
Funny thing is that I didn’t even know Davidson’s name before coming to this site. I’m only just now finding out about his recent commentary and reading it. I don’t know what to think about him, just yet. I only learned of him through this site because I was just reacting to my wife’s sudden moment of intuition. (She’s probably the smartest person I’ve ever met, but she’s not not a financial person at all. Just a nationally known stand-up comic, nationally recognized [awarded] script writer, and radio voice. A day is never dull here! 🙂 Oh, and when I say she is the smartest person I know, that’s coming from a working physicist/engineer.)
And yeah. I’ll be sure to snap up any working crystal balls. I can hope. 😉
The time is NOW, don’t put it off.
Since last year’s right now wasn’t actually right now is now right now?
I am debating the same thing, should I sell our rental properties in hopes of replacing them at a lower cost, but then if interest rates are up, will my profit margin still exist. We bought after 2008 at what I hope are reasonably good prices, and good rates. The talk of higher interest rates keeps me from wanting to reap the gains, because I still need to replace that income, if we hope to retire. Any thought on which direction I should go?
Shannon
I really appreciated your post. I would like to talk with you further. Thanks, Dennis Gabrial Smith
When you say corporate-styled communities, are you referring to walled gardens around the cathedral, or are you thinking of Bernies dynamic populism and its people-centred revolution? I hate to tell you, but am pretty sure the cathedral is doomed.
I just came on James Davidson’s video reading something else. Then I Googled this site and started reading. Interesting comments. I just watched Jonathan Cahn, author of the Harbinger, last night talking about the Shemitah. It all ties in with Mr.Davidson’s predictions. ☝ http://www.mccartymatters.com
Well we are all on the same page with this theory ! It seems that the more I watch the business channel even after the dow tumbled a few weeks ago and now it’s picking up its loses that the market is full of SHIT there is absolutely no reason for it to be this high I mean cmon how many people can possibly buy into it ? which now the video makes sense of the margin trading going on by the hedge funds. And real estate forget about it in 2011 I bought my house 4 years later I can sell and make a 250 k profit goof for me but makes absolutely no sense at all, all in all everything seems big time fishy and we have plenty of reasons to smell it !!
Jon K, what did your wife think of the Fed inaction?
Has anyone heard about the stock market crash to happen first part of October? Interested in any comments and thoughts everyone has.
Well, we are in mid November…so, no.
Great comments from everyone and I agree with both Jon K and Dean. I feel like something is going to happen and happen quickly. Curious if anyone has actually read his book and what his general advice is.
Interesting comments. I’m very concerned about what I fear is coming as well. I’ve listened to some videos (from Bill Bonner as well as JDD & others) and agree it can’t go on like this with all our debt, a falsely high stock market, etc. I’m feeling similar to how I did 8-9 years ago wondering then how so many people could afford such expensive houses. It didn’t make sense then and what is going on now doesn’t either. Now I’m 60 years old and looking at retiring soon. But, I’m almost afraid to – not sure if my investments are safe. I’m diversified, but that doesn’t give me much comfort these days. If any of you are investment types, can you provide any advice? Does it make sense to get out of the market for the most part? If so, what do you do with the money – leave it in cash, buy gold or silver, what?
I’m not an expert in investing but I’d like to protect what I have as much as possible. I’ve worked hard for almost 40 years to save & be able to take care of myself. I would be fine if our fearless leaders & politicians hadn’t sold us down the river but since they seem to have done so, what is the best course of action to take? Sometimes I feel like I’m out here all alone navigating unknown waters. Obviously there are others out there that feel the same. What are you doing in that regard? J
JonK – nice comments but can you offer anything more concrete for us little guys/gals?. I have bought a few books and news letter subscriptions but don’t understand lots of the info. in them. I don’t want to buy another book or join a monthly newsletter that I don’t understand very well. I have a financial advisor I work with, but don’t buy stocks directly. Any help is appreciated!
Diversification is a very general term that asset gatherers (99% of financial advisors) like to throw around. If by diversified you mean to say that your securities portfolio is composed of stocks, bonds, and cash/cash alternatives, you might get hurt. Until the fed raises rates, bonds may continue to have a generally inverse correlation to stocks. In non-jargon terms, rising rates will likely cause both stock and bond values to decline. Ask your advisor this – “can you help me to develop and maintain a market neutral portfolio by implementing a beta-weighted net zero delta strategy?” If they don’t have a clear response, than they can’t help you protect your retirement income outside of selling you an annuity (and be mindful of the fees you’ll pay for a variable annuity with a living benefit rider; 3%+). Most are simply relationship managers, not investment managers, who put money in mutual funds and annuities and outsource the management of your investments to bigger firms (AIG, etc. ). If your advisor doesn’t appear to have had a stroke at this point they may be of the 1% in their field. Next ask them for their thoughts on a strategy to collect premium and see some returns on the beta-weighted net delta neutral portfolio.
Alternatively one might simply short the S&P 500 (symbol SPY), but it’s difficult to time the potential unwinding that we’re all feeling. A buddy of mine was short the NASDAQ for seven months preceding the dot com bust, only to succumb to the losses incurred as he waited and it continued to rally. He ended up covering his short positions only two weeks before he would have struck oil. Market neutral with income from servicing the outside bets may be the least painful approach. You will limit your gains when the bottom falls out, but the idea is that you won’t be watching your account lose value while waiting for it to happen. Let us know what your advisor has to say. Best of luck.
Gold and gold miners. Any paper is crazy.
Most interesting. I have a copy of a small 113 page book titled “The Plague of the Black Debt – How to survive the coming depression by James Dale Davidson of Strategic Investment Limited Partnership 1994.
In the 21 years since James wrote this book, he and others, are now talking about Black Swans. I presume Black Debt is one of the Black Swans, which after 21 years has gotten a whole lot “blacker” so to speak. Let’s face it the world is a mess. Governments and their citizens are living beyond their means and repeatedly kicking the can down the road for the next generation to try and handle. The day of reckoning where the world economy implodes is closer at hand than most would like to believe.
Everyone should make plans and be prepared to the best of their ability for when the implosion takes place. It’s going to get real ugly to say the least. My grandmother told me how things were during the depression in the 30’s and what is coming will be much, much worse.
Everyone talks about the federal government debt here and around the world but few look at the states. I believe the large cities and the states will be the piece of sand that starts the fall.
Does anyone believe that the federal government will sit by and let states go bankrupt? I know the current law says they can’t but what will happen when a state stops paying? It doesn’t even have to be a state. Watch what happens with Puerto Rico. If banks/investment houses start releasing them from their debt, you can be assured it will come out later that there is a deal with the government that they will be covered some other way.
I believe this will be the last piece of sand…
Puerto Rico wants to give bondholders a haircut. The leaders hope their next promise to pay will be trusted enough to gain reasonable interest rates of new debt, so, perhaps, the deficit spending can continue. I have not read anything about a balanced budget. So I do think PR is going to have an effect on part of the muni-market and create realized losses from some investors. So maybe PR will not get out of its problem and the feds will take over the finances of the PR government? I don’t see why anyone would buy a new PR bond issue with one’s own money. So investments in PR will have to be hidden by investment funds.
It is definitely a time of uncertainty, I grow more concerned each day. I like James Rickard and Peter Schiff, but also study advice from many advisers on this subject of what to do in an economic meltdown. The time to prepare is now, because when all forces collide, you will not have time to react. There are several things you can do, depending on where you’re at in life. It might be wise to sell your real estate investments now, it is expected to drop 40%, so take your profits early while the market is up and rent. Secondly, you might want to purchase a property with enough land to raise crops and animals to provide for your family, and can be a great barter tool if a food shortage occurs. Make sure you buy in a state that has enough rainfall. Farmers have fallen by the wayside, and they fared well during the Great Depression. If that is not an option for you, obviously have plenty of food and water stored for over a year. Get out of the U.S. stock market. U.S. stocks are all overpriced and frankly there are too many company buybacks going on. Invest outside the U.S., Peter Schiff at Euro Pacific Capital can help you with that. This crash will be global, but frankly, there are better stock buys outside this country that pay dividends as well. Hedge a portion of your money in gold and silver about 10%, and own several collectible assets that make up a portion of your portfolio. Classic cars, rare coins, stamps, fine art are recommended. Be careful not to leave too much money in the bank. The dollar could tank, but have enough cash if it does the opposite. Invest in a good vault and create a false wall in your home to hide it. Prepare for both deflation and massive inflation. Invest in things that you use everyday to last your family about 5 yrs. Make sure you store them in plastic totes to keep unwanted critters out. Our children are in their mid 20’s and very independent, but they may be returning home when all hell breaks loose and unemployment skyrockets, so prepare for them as well. Another good idea is to raise protection dogs as a first line of defense. They are a great deterrent to those who may want to help themselves to what you have worked hard for. The unwanted intruder will skip your place and find an easier target down the road. Make sure your dogs are trained to stand down on command, as they can be trouble if not properly trained. We like the Presa mastiff, they are naturally suspicious, protective, and a force to contend with. Integrate them well in to your family and socialize them well as puppies. They will protect you with their life if need be, not run away in dangerous situations. They also enable you to get to your second line of defense if need be. I don’t think I need to cover that. And last but not least, keep your preparations quiet. Let your closest family members know that they will be safer coming to your house, but that’s it. Good luck and pray that the impending crash will lead this country to act in a responsible manner and eliminate the corruption and greed that has plagued this country for many years.
Much of that is eminently logical, and those things would have been a help during the few times of genuine upheaval and currency crisis that have occurred — but I always tell folks to be wary of overreacting to fear placed in your head by your own genuine (and reasonable) feelings of uneasiness and stoked by marketers. Davidson, Schiff, Harry Dent, Bill Bonner and many more of their ilk were predicting much the same thing in 20 years ago and five years ago, when things also felt very uncertain. I have seen very little to convince me that any of them will be right about even in which decade any upheaval might come — preparedness is good, in whatever moderation feels appropriate to your situation… selling all your stocks five years ago because Peter Schiff said we were going down the tubes would have been disastrous, and for many folks who overreacted to that it could have ruined their retirement savings at just the wrong time.
You can miss out on a lot of gain by indulging in disaster thinking. I subscribed in 1968 in high school to a hard money letter called The Forecaster by a guy named John V. Kamen. He skewed my whole thinking about the bogus nature of paper money and warned of imminent collapse…. in 1968!! His logic is today still the same, but if all money is bogus and people still use bogus money, then is money bogus?
I prefer to protect myself with peace of mind and more energy. See the Radio City Music Hall event recently with Sting, Katie Perry, Seinfeld, etc. where they are raising money to support teachers of the Transcendental Meditation technique so TM can be taught in schools to students lucky enough to get it….there is nothing in the outer world that is certain, but to settle down into calm and coherence, nothing like it, rich or poor. Invest in yourself. Good luck and thanks to Travis for doing the hard work of removing the d
Very insightful. Thanks for that!
If the economy crashes like these guys say it will, the last thing I would want to buy is stocks from crooks on wall street. They cannot possibly predict an exact buying opportunity just like they cannot predict when exactly these bad times will happen. You are better off to have you homes paid for and no debts. You will probably want to hang on to your properties and ride it out. Someone will rent them for some money when times are bad. Tighten your belt. Do not spend unnecessarily and ride it out the best you can. That is the only choice. But why give crooks on wall street money until that scene it cleaned up? The banks like Goldman are all crooks. Caused the last crash. Who would give them their money?
I have been prepping for 5 years with food and survival supplies . This crash will be coordinated by the govt and will be the introduction to a new global world consisting of a basket of currency’s . The yuan is going to be the new reserve currency which might be backed by gold .The dollar had to die and the U.S. had to be de industrialized so loading the country on debt was the plan to kill the dollar . If you have cash remove it from the bank you are now considered an unsecured creditor rather than a depositor so the Banks are using your deposits to gamble in the derivative markets . The fdic has about 5 billion dollars to cover 11 trillion in deposits . They will steal the money from the banks to pay the Bail outs (Baill ins) just like Cypress . Get yourself food and water ammo guns and SILVER and GOLD for wealth . The precious metal markets are being manipulated on the paper side to keep prices low . When the shtf the dollar and markets will go lower and the metals will go higher Its a hedge Dollar is fiat currency (IOU ) Metals are MONEY based on the man hours it takes to mine it. Silver is 15 dollar spot value today is less than it costs to mine it which is close to 20 dollars China,Russia,India, are buying gold hand over foot .That’s where all the metals that are being melted down at you local jewelers are going . They are paying 500 dollars over spot in China . China is dumping our Treasury’s . I would not own any paper stock or commodity . I have researched for 5 years and I am retired so I have alot of time to do this research . II read your comments and warn you that this will be a planned collapse unlike nothing we have ever seen before . Not the end of the world !! All these country’s know we are scamming them but our public is not paying attention and will get caught off guard . The old saying the wife is the last one to know when she is being cheated on. Well the Only United States is the Wife and all her neighbors know and she will be the last one to find out that she was being screwed over. Good luck all !!!
Is this a Survivalist forum, or a financial forum? I find the survivalist stuff a bit nutty, and it makes me want to get rid of the outdated 2nd Amendment asap! I would rather be poor with my neighbors than have dogs and guns to protect all my riches. Which you say will be gone anyways as it is in stocks, bonds, metals, dollars, other currencies, etc., one house to be sold when my parents pass.
I am about to meet my financial person who is also my Trustee. I feel stupid asking about Delta etc etc stuff as I do not know what it means. Does anyone have a more polite and comprehensible question to test my Trustee with?
There are very few sure things for investment, these days; one area has to be in the Doomsday/Prepper marketplace, however. I personally believe in fiscal conservatism, ie low debt, high savings. We paid off our home years early by making extra payments – now, it’s ours, and yes we pay inflated property taxes and utilities but that’s it. Unless we wish to sell it and move, it’s almost irrelevant to us what the housing market does. I don’t believe either J.D.D.styled professional naysayers any more than market lovers, as either camp seems to make their personal shares from selling overpriced books, memberships in exclusive trading clubs, or by milking fees to manage your money. I have a feeling things are going downhill for the next period – but classically in the low points are when seasoned investors will buy, exactly the way wholesale oil rig equipment dealers buy and store right now; they know it can and likely will turn around in 1-2 years and suddenly it will be drill time again. When the world goes to hell, HTF is anybody’s stash of “collector cars and fine art” going to be more valuable?
1) Invest on a human scale; know your investments and listen to very few ‘experts’.
2)Avoid leveraging; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
3)Anecdotal stories can prove great booms and busts in every market; problem is, the story and its details are always chosen and told after the fact.
I watched the video about a month ago and signed up and paid for the Age of Deception. I noticed that the money was received but I haven’t received the book.
How do I let Mr. Davidson know? I believe we are in a very serious situation with the national debt being so high and all the quantitative easing that has taken place since the great theft of 2008. Unemployment is really about 25 per cent in this country. The 5.2 per cent is the unemployed who have been searching for a job the past 4 weeks. That’s all!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9109565/Runaway-millionaire-says-NZ-run-by-idiots
I too tried to buy the book/membership program but could not get my payment information downloaded. Sorry for Elvus who has not reveived anything. I won’t try again!
What to do in this era of uncertainty?
Easy. Diversify and reduce risk compared to stock investments. If a large investor, evaluate NordIX AG, a managed futures program now registering to do business in the U.S.
With less investment money, consider Plutus or Ring, two other managed futures programs.
Remember, a $1 million investment i NordiX AG requires minimum exchange requirement of around $100,000 and the maximum you’re willing to risk, say $50,000, or a total of $150,000. That is, $1 MILLION is NOT required. Started in 2011, the program has never lost as much as 3% cumulatively based on monthly performance. You can expect (or hope for) an annual return of $150,000 to $200,000, based on performance since inception in 2011. This company is based in Germany and currently registering to sell its services in the U.S. That is, it is not available at this time for investment by U.S. residents. If it is your first mgd futures investment, you will need additional funds to invest.
With less money consider Ring Capital Management. Deposit $25,000 exchange minimum plus about $15,000 maximum acceptable risk (loss) . He usually returns annually about $20,000.
Interestingly, most stock investors cannot make heads or tails out of mgd futures discussions. It is a superb example of how propaganda is effective. They outperform Hedge Funds, which get much more institutional investment in total. Could deception be going on by Forbes and the securities industry.
Davidson is a scam artist. He now has a bunch of web links out there (and made high SEO for) going back to this page
http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016/
If you read some of these links – you will see what sort of fraud this guy is… He is obviously shorting the market – trying to drive it down..
http://wolfblitzzer0.blogspot.com/2013/08/james-dale-davidson-iii-california-gold.html
http://anexerciseinfutility.blogspot.com/2008/05/crystal-ball-of-james-dale-davidson.html
http://wolfblitzzer0.blogspot.com/2012/03/cias-agora-incfounder-james-dale.html
“He(Davidson) is obviously shorting the market – trying to drive it down..”
I just watched The Big Short. I also lived through the real event so I was already familiar with the events and the players. Do you think those who shorted the market were the reason for the crash? I don’t think so. Those who drove the stake in were the likes of Goldman who were taking advantage of their investors and played both sides of the game flaming the bubble and betting against at he same time – and ended up being bailed out by tax payers.
Since when is Shorting unethical?
Film – “The Big Short” makes that point, being Long & a cheerleader is not the only way to play the markets. The bears are coming out of hibernation, again.
The bias against short selling is deeply ingrained but there is nothing really wrong ethically with it. It is simply reversing the order in which one buys and sells.
Usually, we buy something first and then sell it. But we often sell something first, Then they go then buy it. The net position is the same…one buy, one sell, net position zero.
Or one sell, one buy, net position zero. It’s just the order of the transactions that changes. You still want to sell high and buy low, in either scenario.
For example, when one goes to a store, often the store will sell you something they do not have. Say you go to buy a shirt. They sell it to you first. After they sell it, then they go and buy it at a price cheaper than they sold it to you. That’s a short sale.
It sure would be a breath of fresh air to hold the families of politicians liable for the financial obligations they impose on others. Likewise it would do a great deal og good to hold financial advisers, and investment manages liable for loses incurred due to this advice and decisions. Paying someone to guide your investment for a fee should come with an insurance policy. Even if it simply had the effect of chilling the radical swings of the market then people could see and invest for long term predictable growth.