written by reader James Dale Davidson “The Age of Deception”

By xiexgp@gmail.com, August 27, 2015

It seems Mr. Davidson is predicting a Black Swan event soon with the stock market wipeout of 50% or more due to fewer people trading, margin debt, that is, borrowing to invest; stock buy backs that obviously drive stock prices higher for the short term and our overall debt situation. Any thoughts on his predictions and potential opportunities (Other than buying another book and newsletter) since he was correct in almost all the other financial events that have impacted our financial and investing lives.

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9955

Davidson and others call an unpredictable impact event “black swan”;
Rickards uses chaos and complexity theory to hypothesize an eventual financial meltdown resulting from any one of a number of unstable and inherently unknowable sources,
many being quite minor.

I tend to agree with these points of view. The problem is deciding how to prepare.

Cob
Guest
Cob

Hello,
Where can I obtain a copy for cheap?
A quick search reveals that the book is available only in used form, and that it’s $200.
Do you know why it’s so expensive?
Thanks

Terry Beckham
Guest
Terry Beckham

You can get the book free when you subscribe to his monthly newsletter. Just go to the site below and watch his video to get the book:

https://research.thesovereigninvestor.com/X190R916

pewteroom
Member
๐Ÿ‘3
pewteroom

Looks like if you go to the end of his recorded presentation and keep saying no to the offers, you will eventually be given an offer to buy the book for $19 and an introductory subscription which is not a lot if you can cancel in time. I did not find the same offer on his website, although it may be buried somewhere on the site.

Marna Benion
Guest
Marna Benion

I subscribed to the newsletter but do not see the book. How do I view it?

special k
Guest
special k

Just think, one day our enemies will be buying our debt because others cannot and that’s the only way to keep the scheme moving forward. Everyone knows there is only one long term way out…….massive loss of life and poof, your unfunded liabilities go away

Mark
Guest
Mark

The baby boomers won’t live forever. They ship starts righting itself around 2050. Went through the same thing in 59/60 before the baby boomers arrived.

dana
Guest
dana

There are now more millennials born than there were boomers born after WW2. If we can get them all gainfully employed, they should be able to support the government’s Ponzi scheme for at least another 40 years. ๐Ÿ™‚ Better yet, pay them well and we will experience the government surplus that we had in the mid-90s — during those times, company’s were begging for good employees; sign-on bonus’ and great wages were all the rage. ๐Ÿ™‚

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George McHugh
Guest

The ship will not right itself as long as we have the Fed and fiat money.

http://www.pdfarchive.info/pdf/G/Gr/Griffin_G_Edward_-_The_Creature_from_Jekyll_Island.pdf

Joyce Tessman
Guest

How does one protect the equity in their real estate holdings?

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
Admin
๐Ÿ‘13679

It’s not cheap. You can hedge against the case shiller index on the futures market, which might offer some protection from a crash, but for most real estate investors it’s cash flow that they’re worried about, not equity value. They need cash flow to cover the mortgage, which means the real risk is local economic conditions and potential rents — not the actual resale value of the real estate, which isn’t that meaningful unless you need to sell it. I don’t think the home value indices are shortable in ETF form, so you’d have to use the actual futures market.

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NICK
Guest

YOU TAKE THE EQUITY OUT NOW SO THERE IS NOTHING TO LOSE…

hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9955

You may not be able to. But if you have good tenants you will have income, no matter what the nominal price of the property is. If everything goes to hell, the property still is has a real and relative value. At least, that’s how I am looking at it. For example…I have a property free and clear, no mortgage, for which I get $800 a month in net income. Of course It is better if I went to sell it if the property could fetch $100,000; but if it is only worth $75,000, I am still getting the $800… Read More ยป

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dana
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dana

How do you figure $800 a month? You still have taxes and insurance to pay — that will wipe out most of the income – then any repairs, that all homes eventually need, wipes out the rest. And that is only assuming a good tenant…if they loose their job (and have kids) you’ll be fighting for months to get them evicted; factor in attorney’s fees, time lost from work – and then you had better hope they are not vindictive and destroy your home before they leave.

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

I figure $ 800 a month because that is my NET INCOME after I pay the taxes and insurance. The gross rent is more than $800 a month.

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Harvey
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Harvey

Watched the entire video. One prediction that was made is obviously incorrect. He states that the collapse is not 6 months away. From the date of these posts to today it has been nearly a year. Maybe we’ll see another drop over the next few months, but I’m betting that it will be more like the drops last summer with the crisis in Greece, and then the China meltdown. It didn’t take years to recoup those losses. I’ve heard that there is typically a 10% correction nearly every year, so I expect that could happen, but I sincerely doubt the… Read More ยป

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Gabson
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Gabson

Your saving could lose 30% when you deposit $100 and when you are ready to withdraw the money you can only use it to purchase a $70 worth of goods. It’s called Inflation!

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Lawrence Lieberman
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Lawrence Lieberman

If I may expand a little. Davidson cites various factors that he thinks will result in a sharp market devaluation. He may be right about the result, but wrong about the specific triggers. The things he cites may make a decline more severe but aren’t necessarily the “cause” of the downdraft. Rickards also points to many factors that create a lot of risk…the complexity of world finances and psychology, government policies, fiat money policies, out-of-control debt, world interconnectedness, and political instability; but says that it is impossible to redict what exactly will trigger a meltdown, that a minor event can… Read More ยป

Darren
Guest
Darren

There are many of these economists that are predicting events like this…… What none of them are including in their predictions is that Elected Officials, and the people they put in power, will Lie about the status of the True Economy and that despite the US spending Billions on the Department of Education, the masses are ignorant on how our money works, how the stock market works, and how the economy works. Just like China’s recent stock market crash, the Chinese Government comes in using their heavy hand and forces banks to loan, short sellers to stop selling short and… Read More ยป

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Harmon Lyons
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Harmon Lyons

Gen X starterd in 1960. Baby boomers after WW2. The Avalanche analogy is flawed in a fundamental way. Gradual snow pack doesn’t cause it. Fluctuations in temperature, snow density, etc. play a factor(s) in it. Like “the market”, good luck explaining it in a newsletter or snow analogy. Greed and Fear drive markets (well, nano second trading plays a part) plain and simple. Some technology may temporarily game the system. But it’s already stacked against anyone that might even see this ramble of a reply… Guy called for it in August 2015 and markets have basically held, dropped, recovered since… Read More ยป

Roberta
Guest
Roberta

I thought his explanation was well stated and easy to understand. Of course other factors enter in, I’m not a scientist or Ph.D. in Earth Science but I understand that the temperature of the snow underneath, the composition of the ground surface underneath, etc., play a part, but it is something as simple as the snowflake (the straw that broke the camel’s back) or a vibration, that sets it all off, and I believe that is where our market is right now. How long can “false” forces hold it high? I believe that we are momentarily safe because the entire… Read More ยป

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Ritam108
Member
๐Ÿ‘90
Ritam108

Ah, yes, I do follow these promos, esp. the Market collapse guys….. I love Rickards, he shorts emerging markets and have made money on paper buying puts on GM . Davidson laid out his gloom and doom in a very well presented logical manner, but I dont buy his imminent collapse theory, but well worth watching….and Larry Edelson is featured in a nice documentary called The Forecaster (on Amazon to download or stream) talking about Martin Armstrong. I wonder if Edelson is using Armstrong’s algorithms, as he is now promoting Super Cycle Trader, showing 6 our of 7 long cycles… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9955

I think there is truth to the idea that disequilibrium could be triggered by something unpredictable. There are so many things that could go wrong that could precipitate
or exacerbate a general financial crisis. But exactly when, what and how cannot be predicted with any certainty at all, and in the “black swan” idea there is the chance that there will be an occurrence of something that has never been seen before.

Jan
Guest
Jan

Could the next thing that destabilizes the world market place have to do with Russia and oil…? Pres. G.W. Bush once said “oil is gold” so if he made a astounding statement but who was listening, investors were, he indicated that Gold and Oil were on equal playing fields, I think the cause for a stock crash most likely will be all nations dependent on oil for their gain and profits. And if currency is totally affected, even turned to tissue paper and of no value, then Gold will go up and is better than oil. The markets were over… Read More ยป

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Denny
Member
๐Ÿ‘74

I believe Davidson is a realist. The facts he presents…..can anyone doubt? How this evolves is anyone’s speculation. Personally, I am fully invested in the market. Many of the same investments HX and Dr. KSS has recommended. However, this country and economy are experiencing a serious financial, moral and leadership crisis.

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JonK
Guest
JonK

My wife is like a spider in a web. She “feels” the vibrations without actually seeing exactly what is causing them. In March of 2005, she told me we “have to sell all our property now.” I had no idea where that came from, but she suddenly was quite sure about it. I asked her “Why? We have a policy of keeping property unless there is good reason to sell. What’s the reason here to sell ‘all of it, now?'” She said, “Stuff I’ve been noticing, lately.” I said, “What stuff? Do you have anything in particular that I should… Read More ยป

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Michael
Guest
Michael

I like your post. Does your wife pick up any vibes about anything now? Where do you feel one should invest for the next year or so?

JonK
Guest
JonK

We are focusing on finding key partners, now. Investment is in the right people, together with the right land and infrastructures, both physical as well as policy prescriptions for governing the commons we will share. So it’s now about the kinds of relationships and skill sets you can acquire and continue to create and refine over time, to create a whole and complete micro-society of sorts. We will create a market for buying into and selling out of the society, as well. This market creation aspect is as vital as much of the rest, in order to accommodate real situations… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9955

JonK…I am also very concerned…trying to focus on what to do RIGHT NOW when we don’t really know the nature of the bad stuff that’s gonna happen.

If you find a crystal ball at a garage sale, be sure to pick it up.

JonK
Guest
JonK

She is most focused on the actions of the Fed, right now. If they make ANY move, we act. Our situation is unique, so I can’t actually offer anything useful for others. But that’s one trigger she is definitely focused on. There are others. Funny thing is that I didn’t even know Davidson’s name before coming to this site. I’m only just now finding out about his recent commentary and reading it. I don’t know what to think about him, just yet. I only learned of him through this site because I was just reacting to my wife’s sudden moment… Read More ยป

JonK
Guest
JonK

She is most focused on the actions of the Fed, right now. If they make ANY move, we act. Our situation is unique, so I can’t actually offer anything useful for others. But that’s one trigger she is definitely focused on. There are others. Funny thing is that I didn’t even know Davidson’s name before coming to this site. I’m only just now finding out about his recent commentary and reading it. I don’t know what to think about him, just yet. I only learned of him through this site because I was just reacting to my wife’s sudden moment… Read More ยป

JIM
Guest
JIM

The time is NOW, don’t put it off.

JackJenk
Guest

Since last year’s right now wasn’t actually right now is now right now?

Shannon
Guest
Shannon

I am debating the same thing, should I sell our rental properties in hopes of replacing them at a lower cost, but then if interest rates are up, will my profit margin still exist. We bought after 2008 at what I hope are reasonably good prices, and good rates. The talk of higher interest rates keeps me from wanting to reap the gains, because I still need to replace that income, if we hope to retire. Any thought on which direction I should go?

Shannon

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Dennis
Guest
Dennis

I really appreciated your post. I would like to talk with you further. Thanks, Dennis Gabrial Smith

Manfred Hmphries
Guest
Manfred Hmphries

When you say corporate-styled communities, are you referring to walled gardens around the cathedral, or are you thinking of Bernies dynamic populism and its people-centred revolution? I hate to tell you, but am pretty sure the cathedral is doomed.

Dean
Guest
Dean

I just came on James Davidson’s video reading something else. Then I Googled this site and started reading. Interesting comments. I just watched Jonathan Cahn, author of the Harbinger, last night talking about the Shemitah. It all ties in with Mr.Davidson’s predictions. โ˜ http://www.mccartymatters.com

nikopal
Guest
nikopal

Well we are all on the same page with this theory ! It seems that the more I watch the business channel even after the dow tumbled a few weeks ago and now it’s picking up its loses that the market is full of SHIT there is absolutely no reason for it to be this high I mean cmon how many people can possibly buy into it ? which now the video makes sense of the margin trading going on by the hedge funds. And real estate forget about it in 2011 I bought my house 4 years later I… Read More ยป

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V
Guest
V

Jon K, what did your wife think of the Fed inaction?

Denny
Member
๐Ÿ‘74

Has anyone heard about the stock market crash to happen first part of October? Interested in any comments and thoughts everyone has.

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Vee Morra
Guest
Vee Morra

Well, we are in mid November…so, no.

Grace
Guest
Grace

Great comments from everyone and I agree with both Jon K and Dean. I feel like something is going to happen and happen quickly. Curious if anyone has actually read his book and what his general advice is.

katman
Guest
katman

Interesting comments. I’m very concerned about what I fear is coming as well. I’ve listened to some videos (from Bill Bonner as well as JDD & others) and agree it can’t go on like this with all our debt, a falsely high stock market, etc. I’m feeling similar to how I did 8-9 years ago wondering then how so many people could afford such expensive houses. It didn’t make sense then and what is going on now doesn’t either. Now I’m 60 years old and looking at retiring soon. But, I’m almost afraid to – not sure if my investments… Read More ยป

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Rwt06190
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Rwt06190

Diversification is a very general term that asset gatherers (99% of financial advisors) like to throw around. If by diversified you mean to say that your securities portfolio is composed of stocks, bonds, and cash/cash alternatives, you might get hurt. Until the fed raises rates, bonds may continue to have a generally inverse correlation to stocks. In non-jargon terms, rising rates will likely cause both stock and bond values to decline. Ask your advisor this – “can you help me to develop and maintain a market neutral portfolio by implementing a beta-weighted net zero delta strategy?” If they don’t have… Read More ยป

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