James Dale Davidson “The Age of Deception”It seems Mr. Davidson is predicting a Black Swan event soon with the stock market wipeout of 50% or more due to fewer people trading, margin debt, that is, borrowing to invest; stock buy backs that obviously drive stock prices higher for the short term and our overall debt situation. Any thoughts on his predictions and potential opportunities (Other than buying another book and newsletter) since he was correct in almost all the other financial events that have impacted our financial and investing lives.
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Has anyone followed Bo Polny. He studies cycles according to the Biblical cycles and many years of research. He is right on the money with his financial predictions. He is like none other and predicts a crash starting now and an explosion in gold happening three times this year. Follow some of his videos on money trends.com and a few others as well as his own website. Follow his latest video on thedollarvigilante website, I think you will all find him pretty amazing.
Impressive, but the sales pitch and the long duration of video makes one very skeptical.
Doesn’t anyone recall investing while will are with a MAD (mutually assured destruction) policy with USSR ???? Who would think that MTV CNN and Reagan would solve it all, collapsing the USSR fraud?
This $10 a barrel oil tax the government is trying to convince the American people to support is VERY BAD. The oil companies are against this tax and will not pay it. They will just pass it down to us at the pump and it will cause gas prices to sky rocket again. Just when oil prices are starting to come back down to where it needs to be for this country to prosper. The fuel tax is the only proven method that will not have a negative effect on the economy and will not stop oil prices from getting back down to $10 a barrel average again. This will bring gas back down to 56¢ a gallon again and people will start spending money everywhere again, especially if retail markets follow suit and drop prices by the same %. Sure real estate equity and property values will drop 40%, but so will property taxes. Some places here in IL are over assessed by as much as 200% just to increase annual property taxes. The fuel tax is a tax on the miles you drive. This tax has been used in the Trucking Industry for years very efficiently raising billions in tax revenue without causing financial hardship to the industry. Everyone needs to call their Senator’s and Representatives 202-224-3121 tell them to stop the $10 a barrel oil tax!
I WOULD RATHER PAY ALITTLE MORE FOR GAS THEN HAVE IT DROP SO LOW THAT EVERYTHING GOES DOWN THE TOILET..YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT….THERE IS A BIGGER PICTURE HERE NOT YOUR SELFISH VEIW AS TO WHAT YOU PAY FOR GAS EVERYWEEK…..GET OVER YOURSELF AND THINK ABOUT THE OVER ALL PICTURE I WANT GAS TO GO BACK UP TO HELP THE STOCK MARKET THEN EVERYTHING WILL NOT CRASH….
Of course the tax is bad. We have enough taxes already, plus the government is debasing our money so fast no one can comprehend it.
How is it going to solve anything by charging everyone an extra $ 10 a barrel on a vitally needed, universal and useful commodity, and giving the money to the government ?
Not just gas get caught – a lot of oil goes to chemicals and plastics, and the tax would apply there too. Governments need money – lighten up…
Think about what will happen when the 1.600 trillion dollar derivatives market collapses.
There are so many millions of trades underlying those 1.600 trillion, so how many years will it take to just figure out who owns what to whom, when it all comes down?
Will it all be put on hold as they try to figure that out? It will be the most complicated puzzle of all ages. Imagine if you are a hedge fund, waiting for the calculations of your trades, and if those on the other side of the trades are able to honor the deals…waiting for one year, two years, to get the final results???
What’s gonna happen in the meantime? You won’t know if you are 20 million in plus or minus…obviously this will add tremendously to an already chaotic situation, increasing the uncertainty.
The only certainty is that all this will lead to war, increasing the chaos, and also providing the scapegoats to take the blame off the US institutions.
I my opinion we have to see this in the greater context of the NWO global social engineering plan….and that plan has to be seen in the greater context of a spiritual war.
But heck, if you really think everything in this world, including your DNA, is just a result of chance….then there are no fundamentals and no reason trying to apply reason to understand anything….
I see no other option than to invest in your own spiritual health, on your knees.
Fear…the Final Frontier..to boldly predict what no man has predicted before…
The end is near, follow me and we shall inherit the world… JDD just doing what sold a lot of books for Moses, Jesus, and Mohammad….even their predictions have failed to happen in a timely manner… Jews still waiting for Christ…Christians still waiting for the end of world…Mohammad waiting to receive virgins… JDD waiting to short the market… Eventually one of them will get it right.
I’m very worried I believe there is some truth in it because some of past predictors have been right. I just will believe God will help us in the very end!
World wide economies are now structured in such a way that boom and bust cycles are enivitable. The only difference is that the cycle reduces each time. No sooner as you think you have come out of one you haven’t it has just been subdued and the cycle continues to build up its momentum again but still on the back of previous debt to hot harder the nest time around. Banks in the UK have been offering disguised sub prime mortgages since 2012, national personal debt here is now higher than what it was in 2007. There are presently 1000s of repossessions a day, banks still have billions of pounds worth of variable sub prime mortgages on their books and rates have started increasing. They have started to down value properties, new home builders who have land banked for years started to build in early 2015 more than likely to make quick money for the next downturn that is rapidly approaching. People who have exchanged on these properties are now heavily trying to off load at an unprecedented rate and sell off plan prior to 2017 completions. But the Chinese investors are leaving and they are left with overpriced properties worth 10-20% less and negative equity. Most European countries are bankrupt, wars are raging, China falsified it’s growth rate, Russia is in trouble, oil is down due to surplus, eu referendum this year and presidential elections and property markets around the world are ready to burst. Let’s see how long this holds up.
Do you think we are living in a massive global card game with bluff the main currency? People riding waves of hype to obtain financial advantage?
The minute I realised sub prime mortgages were being being offered under a different guise in 2012 I predicted a crash in 2016. The amount of unsecured loans and in some cases sub prime loans has been increasing over the last few years. Brokers dropped residential mortgages and moved solely into buy to let whereby you pay a high er rate but can secure a loan on 15%to20% prove £25k gross earnings and then inflate the rental yield.This is In a market that will soon be saturated with new builds decreasing rental yields and heavy tax burdens due to start in 2017 for landlords. 5% deposits are available and the government’s help to buy scheme will come back to haunt them. In Australia you can buy with 3% and the government in Ireland are repossessing at an alarming rate.
Hi Fred,
What are the landlord taxes starting in 2017 you refer to ? Are they Federal ?
…er, rather, attention Steve….
Hi Steve,
It’s the triumph of American way ! We’ve exported our real estate and cheap Fed money policies around the world, and now all the major governments are playing the same game, in their local dialects.
The US had millions of single family homes in trouble. The boom was engineered by tax laws and easy money. The Chinese have a real bubble made of entire brand new cities that are completely empty, and give their citizens few investment options, so that they
speculate in real estate. The insiders are those building and profiting selling the ghost towns. to So both economies are on top of government induced real estate bubbles.
having read a lot of your comments,has anyone benefited from mr Davidsons info really.
Hi Steve,
Similar policies in the US…you can get loans on property but you have to show enough income. So to that degree the situation is better. Anyway I prefer to have the stuff unleveraged, although that substantially reduces the field of play, for obvious reasons.
Not all properties are equal… Location, Location and Location. You cannot change geography.
I agree with most others that there is a high probability of a huge correction in the near future. No crystal ball here but I’m slowly getting prepared.
I recommend holding a lot of cash (about 60%), some gold (or GLD), and a small allocation in a Total Bond Market ETF. If you want to add a little risk add a small allocation to an Emerging Market Bond ETF. No Stocks! Relax and be very patient before committing any money. For me this portfolio is up most days when the market is up or down.
It is ever more difficult to earn more than 5% on any safe investment, except for new innovators, such as Gilead, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook early in their growth. Now the are more like value stocks. Value stocks can pay a bit above inflation, but not much. I wonder how big pension plans make more than I can so I am looking for ways I can have losses. So far, my list of losers include, some master limited partnerships, but not all; most junk bonds; closed end ETFs that return principal, loaded funds, high management fee funds, and taking too much risk. I have yet to find the right solution. I watch for dips of panic to find stocks on sale, like VLO a few weeks ago, and overprices holdings, like utilities. I note show sector ETFs hold many terrible companies who are financed by junk bonds with low junk ratings. I think these ETFs and junk bond funds keep a lot of companies going that should never have started. In the end, investors loose with money managers win no matter what happens. The more investment games with OPM, the more chances to win. I don’t understand enough so I keep learning and become more careful. Maybe back to real estate, but who wants to manage tenants? UGH.
Hi Gerald,
I agree with most of your observations. With low interest rates, artificial or not, the problem is finding income, and there is none to be had in financial instruments without too much risk. Like you I concluded real estate is a viable option…though increasing rates will savage the nominal value.
But real estate is not an easy or universal good bet. One has to select an area that will have good growth and that is not inflated too badly already. One must select a good property. One has to be patient to get a good price. One has to not use too much leverage. And one has to find and manage tenants.
On top of that, it is not liquid. But it is real; it is always going to be in demand; and if the taxes are within reason, it cannot be confiscated except in very extreme situations.
No one will stop the new world order all your wealth will be useless I own nothing and in death nothing goes with me. Yet as poor as I am I have more in life than you who have much and worry over everything the one thing on his vidio was the word productivity owe nation as given that to communist China it’s cheep junk I wonder if Mr trump would show us all what the truth realy is.
I am presently a Strategic Investment subscriber. James Dale Davidson has given me good reason to discontinue reading your newsletters. I read your biased sharing of your opinions on the personality of Donald Trump and the Clintons. I doubt your objectivity. I also doubt your claim to have dined “more times that [you] can remember with both.
The rest of your op-ed is little more than a regurgitation of what James Dale Davidson has apparently read from so called “fair and balanced” reporting. Clearly this is not the mainstream press, but I’m sure you believe that they are biased more than your apparent inside information.
My bottom line is that I’ve lost all respect for your observations, prognostications for where the market is heading.
I don’t believe in ad-hominem attacks, but I will say this: I don’t believe in what you say with regards to investments.
As your friend Donald Trump would say “James Dale Davidson and the The Sovereign Society are loser “. I’m sure I’m not the only reader James Dale Davidson and The Sovereign Society has lost today.
But apparently a smart guy like you knows that, and doesn’t really care. I honestly don’t know why you even bother to write your investment advice. What do you get out of it, except the ego satisfaction. Hmmm, maybe that explains why you identify so strongly with Mr. Trump.
Which “OpEd” are you reacting so strongly to? There are a couple dozen comments about Davidson (and related topics) above, but there isn’t one specific detailed editorial or stance. Or are you referring to one of Davidson’s pieces?
?????
After years of investing, it seems Mr.James Dale Davidson is more concerned with selling books than warning anyone about anything. He may well believe in his personal insights, yet most of his ideas are baseless.
The market is somewhat volatile because an oil cost invrease inevitable, while foreign economies, China imports of raw materials, the Japanese Yen, and the UK Euro issue all confound stability and increase the vix.
If you wish a more stable investment portfolio, then the best advice is what is usually suggested to older investors, having a higher bond ratio. Some good investments now are in utilities.
Keep in mind, after a period of time these past market slumps have recovered. If you are a younger investor, hang on through the bear markets.
I watched Davidson’s video. I came away with a TOTALLY different reaction.
One may not agree with the magnitude of his predicted reductions, but to say “most of his ideas are baseless” defies common sense, especially when one looks at what is happening right in front of one’s nose .
Davidson talks about our current economic situation: unemployment, national debt, fiscal gap, P/E ratios, real estate bubble, number of food stamp recipients, percentage of recent college graduates either not employed or underemployed, velocity of money, foreign countries selling off US treasuries, plus more.
In other words, he covers many underlying factors which give his ideas a STRONG base for his stated positions. So how anyone can say his ideas are baseless is ludicrous.
While looking at oil, commodities, euro, yen, etc. is important to the total picture, to ignore the other factors that Davidson presents is to ignore important pieces of the bigger puzzle.
As concerns Davidson more interested in selling books, well, I am getting a copy in the mail free for signing up to get his report at a reduced price. Yes, it still cost me money, and if I keep subscribing, it will cost me more annually. Maybe he is right. Maybe he is wrong. But I decided to give him an honest chance before drawing any responsible conclusions.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9109565/Runaway-millionaire-says-NZ-run-by-idiots. A man who can’t keep up a mortgage on a 1.6 million dollar house offers investment advice. Whodathought…
This commentary is notable. The statement that he is “a man who can’t keep up a mortgage” is unfounded and a leading statement. A website reference is shown, but, the article says, “estate will be sold in a mortgagee sale after he stopped paying his bank, despite having funds in the United States. ” So, an accusation is made along with a reference article that does not support the allegation. I don’t know who is responsible for filtering these posts but someone dropped the ball. I am not taking a position in favor of or against Davidson, but this sort of misleading information needs to be challenged.
Got other reliable sources as references? Then post them. Otherwise, this sort of tabloid misrepresentation needs to be ignored. I cannot believe it got 5 thumbs up. Do people even bother to do responsible research anymore?
Denton, you made a good point. We should do good research before posting.
We know the current bull market will crash one day. After you read the book, have you got any timeline when the market will crash?
Defaulting on a mortgage may be morally suspect but can be a sound investment decision. Failure to pay it is not conclusive evidence that he is unable to pay it, and it may be an excellent financial decision.
If we assume his book and the video were published in Aug 2015, the market crash he predicted should happen between April – Aug 2016. Will J. D. Davidson simply be another newsletter writer or someone who is truly intelligent? Let’s wait for 4 more months. It will be interesting to see how it pans out. By the way, I have not subscribed his newsletter. But I do prepare for market pullbacks.
Well, it’s now September, 2016, everything still is ok — I just listened to the video and the free book offer with the monthly subscription. Came upon this site to see if anyone read the book that revealed what ‘he and his family are doing to prepare’ for the doom? I’m presuming, “buy gold” that I heard many people talk about earlier this year (maybe they bought the book?).
Dana,
I have read the book. It is interesting, but of course that does not mean his predictions on outcomes are accurate. I can recommend the book as being very thought-provoking. Many of his ideas and assertions are likely to be incorrect; several of them I disagree with; but I agree with many of his observations.
The only specific investment recommendation he makes in the book is to accumulate gold and silver. The other advice and recommended actions are not specifically investment recommendations, they are more
life-style oriented…where to live, how to insulate yourself from chaos,
what type of professions and skills you should have, etc..
Here is a link to my prior comments on the book:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/08/microblog-james-dale-davidson-the-age-of-deception/comment-page-1/#comment-4897819
Very interesting thoughts…..wish to follow all of you. James Dale Davidson’s video has intrigued me….but fear it’s a scam
If you watched the video, frankly all of his support material, facts and graphs seem to be legitimate. It is the government that is not reporting the truth. Example: 94 million people out of the work force the government ignores when coming up with only 5% unemployment numbers. That is just not true. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a crash if our government doesn’t start acting fiscally responsible. The Fed is a joke. They have only one tool, a hammer, and everything looks like a nail.
As to whether his newsletter is a scam or not, well, I signed up for a year at reduced rate, to find out. There are a lot of other financial publishers “out there”, and I have knowledge of some first hand. Some, no matter how well meaning, just don’t deliver the expectations. That does not necessarily make them a scam.
Join the discussion
Balogh. Which part of Davidson’s video do you think is not true?
Davidson is very entertaining and I agree with his macro outlook. The trouble is one can have an accurate view of what is happening in the big picture and still make terribly poor specific investment recommendations. I like reading Davidson and agree with a lot of what he has to say, but have not followed his investment recommendations.
James Rickards comes to mind as a similar author. I agree with his outlook but finad my own ways of investing in his thesis.
Rickard’s main thesis in Currency Wars has already been vindicated, IMO. The Chinese have been acting as Rickards predicted, to the point of announcing limited redeemability of yuan for gold. But again moving from a correct macro call to a profitable investment is not a sure thing.
That Davidson is voicing an imminent problem has been voiced by others: Harry Dent, Ron Paul, David Stockman, Peter Schiff, Robert Wiedemer, James Rickards, to name a few for which I am familiar. Several share their claim that they forewarned of certain problems so people had time to react, such as the real estate collapse.
I have read that countries that have gone off the gold standard and resorted to printing currency out of thin air, get into real problems in a time frame, for which the US has already passed. This country seems to be just a bit unconventional and in a situation the others were not. The dollar is still the world reserve currency, but ultimately not, if Congress doesn’t change direction and begin acting fiscally responsible. Continued fiscal irresponsibility alone will change the apparent “forgiveness” global investors will tolerate, and I think when that avalanche takes place it will be very rapid. Several countries have already started dumping US treasuries….China, Japan, Germany (as I recall).
According to one of my investment mentors, Davidson claims that an event will occur before elections. The only fly in the ointment I can see about this forecast is the potential Trump presidency. If it looks like Trump will be elected and then stays true to his promises, I think whatever event anticipated, has a real chance of being less severe or even delayed, because people MAY start putting more faith in the dollar, government and the future.
However, if the other side wins, I am going to resort to some severe direction changes in my investment strategy, if it is not too late (if a correction occurs as Davidson indicates, before elections). All I can say is keep your eyes on the months before the electionl
It is all about confidence. While people are confident because of Trump’s win then Trump would have a great opportunity to reset the dollar by a backing of gold and SDRs or better yet a backing of 100% gold. That so called barbaric relic will save all of us from a collapse similar to that of the Roman Empire. James Rickards is correct, i.e., invest 10 to 20 % of your money in gold and silver coins/bars. Gold is money and insurance, dollars are currency. If a massive deflation occurs dollars could save you but I would rather bet on hard currency. Gold mining stocks are speculations but they could pay off….got to pick the right ones …. and good luck with that. We are headed for a 100% digital currency wherein the governments of the world can confiscate you currency at will and naturally they will always have a good reason. Digital currency will be a good business for hackers. Once the world went to the web it has been and will be very hard for banks and other financial institutions to protect the digital currency. They can’t hack gold/silver although they could confiscate it …remember Roosevelt’s gold turn in which screwed the gold owners of about 40+% of their wealth. But it reset the dollar. The sheeple were led to the barn for their haircut. All of this pain has been caused by citizens not taking an interest in what their governments have been doing. Too busy (the vast majority) being entertained in off work hours and not doing their duty as responsible citizens. Ben Franklin warned US but we have been too busy to take his advice. The only hope left if for Americans to humbly turn back to the Creator and to plead for His assistance and guidance as it is too complicated for the PhDs who got us into this mess in the first place with their arrogance and know it all attitudes. Prayer is the best answer at this point.
Forgot to add: May God Bless the US and show His mercy to us once again even though we have done everything possible to warrant His wrath.