Thought on Jim Rickards anyone?
by Michael | November 19, 2015 11:16 am
I have read quite a bit from Jim Rickards[1], including ”The Death of Money: the collapse of the International monetary system”. I try not to react to certain things, it gets confusing when I read certain things that seem, at least on the surface, to make sense. In Jim Rickards book he does have some very dire predictions based on certain shenanigans in the global financial system which have not really been addressed since the collapse in 2008, including $17 TRILLION of high-risk derivatives[2] out there thanks to the still To Big To Fail Banks. Also, as we see, the geopolitical forces in the world are a mess. And the Federal Reserve keeps playing with economic indicators. That said, is a prediction of a 70% collapse of the stock market due to these ”dark” forces a real possibility or just hype? I have learned enough through various readings to be fairly confused. The sense by Jim Rickards and some others is that the financial day of reckoning is not too far down that road. I don’t want to become Chicken Little, but some of what he says makes sense. Any more well-informed thoughts out there? Thanks!
- Jim Rickards: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/tag/jim-rickards/
- derivatives: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/tag/derivatives/
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/11/microblog-thought-on-jim-rickards-anyone/
Hi marstin97,
I can’t directly answer your question about a 70% collapse in the stock market & other Rickards scenarios in Death of Money because I haven’t read that book and won’t. I did read Currency Wars and was temporarily concerned and signed up for his stock market advice. When I saw his portfolio was down a couple hundred percent, I called back the same day and cancelled. It appears he’s not practicing what he’s preaching very well.
Martin & Linda,
Thanks for the question…and answer. Martin I feel very similar to you and Linda can you elaborate on what portfolio you’re talking about? Thanks!
A great Thanksgiving to all…
Duke
Hi Duke,
The Rikards Portfolio was entitled “The Currency Wars Alert” and it used his IMPACT
system which was to give us “peace of mind” since we’d “make big gains from the
global currency wars.” When I added up his results to date, they did not offer me any peace of mind!
Why do you ask, Duke?
Have you seen other portfolios of his?
Hi Duke,
The Rikards Portfolio was entitled “The Currency Wars Alert” and it used his IMPACT
system which was to give us “peace of mind” since we’d “make big gains from the
global currency wars.”
Why do you ask, Duke?
Have you seen other portfolios of his?
Um, how can an investment be ‘down a couple hundred percent’? So his portfolio lost everything? And then lost everything again?
Tom,
THANK YOU for catching my error. Yegads! I wanted to say his portfolio was down a
couple dozen percent – like 24-25% which troubled me. A plain old S&P500 Index fund with fees and all at that time was performing much better. Thanks again.
The portfolio is up 25%. If you look at individual suggestions they can have heavy losses but these are options. They go exponential when you are right.
Re: Options – They GO exponential in a BAD way when you are NOT korekt, as well!
SoGiAm,
Yes, you are correct.
But, why did you choose to spell “correct” as “korekt” when the incorrect spelling only save one letter ?
To increase awareness and perhaps make it more memorable, George.
Linda,
don’t you mean ‘practising’, not ‘practicing’?
Have any of you had any experience with “Jim Rickards’ Intelligence Triggers”?
I am not impressed either, and if I see another email about his Kissinger Cross method I think I will start throwing up and never quit. It looks to me like Agora is going to do nothing but flood our inboxes with all this stuff. I wonder when is enough with them!
Is Agora just milking their subscriber list with yet another exclusive advisory program: Kissinger Cross? Why didn’t Government apply it to forcast all the recent terror attacks?
Stockgumshoe just saved me from yet to another program.
You all know this, but I remind you anyway: Jim Rickards has put this idea on the internet in the hope of selling it to the large sea of mugs out there, because he cannot make money with it in the markets. It looks like a misapplication of Bayesian statistics. Lord knows how he determines his probabilities, but I can guarantee you that the chances that he determines them correctly from whatever data he has are very small. Hence: no money! And an incorrect market call nearly all the time. It’s easy to find good examples of where the the system may have worked, but he could have done this on any number of stocks and their charts in hindsight, hence the examples you see are probably genuine (depending on how he had to manipulate his probabilities to get the desired “Kissinger Crosses”), but they are not genuine money-making trades. He almost certainly never had the correct probabilities before the “buy” cross, hence he could never have made the trades.
Why would anyone want anything to do with Henry Kissinger? His name alone should drive you away!
What is really depressing is the generally abysmal level of spelling and grammar. Truly, literacy has been the really great loser. We can’t put it all down to Theodore Roosevelt with his ‘Nuspell’ of 1922. The real culprits are laziness and texting. Plus really crap teachers and universities that should know better.
Jim Rickard is really advertising without much thought, he is kind of con man, since 2014 he has been preaching USD collapse in the next 6 mths, guess what… until today nothing happen to the USD. Yet he still preaching… nonstop, really nonsense propagenda.
I recommend that Guest brush up his spelling.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!
Unless like in this case when it’s digital.
Rosy,
there are aphorisms and aphorisms…..and sorry, this ain’t one of them.
I seem to have been late getting my Kissinger Cross email. I was intrigued (as one always is when you see all the successful trades lined up and no comment on the losers (as though any system has a 100% win rate – and even if a system did – would it be flogged in a newsletter.)
Anyway, after some research the Kissinger cross seems very similar to the Aroon Indicator in where it flashes buy and sell signals. I may investigate further if I have time. But needless to say, any good trend following system will get you into and out of a trend, it a market decides to trend. The only differences are around how early it gets you in and out and how many false signals (whipsaws) they give you. My experience in losing a lot of money and making a bit, is that most indicators for trend following systems are much of a muchness and that it is your filters (and risk management) that can give you a big edge. And the best filters tend to be fundamental filters. I know of filters that give a 75% win rate, when teamed up with any standard trend following system (such as moving average cross over, double moving average cross over, MACD, RSI, simple breakout, etc.). Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on your disposition), the best filters generate the fewest number of trades. So one can spend there time using less effective filters, whilst waiting for the elephant to show (and hope that you haven’t wasted all your shot during the wait).
Yes, it’s the Aroon Indicator. Trick is to set it medium time frame.
Let’s just rely on the old saw: ‘A fool and his money are soon parted’.
Started listening to Rickards pitching his KC on the eve of the Brexit vote. Got bored with his pitch, put it on pause, and came over here for the dope. He does seem like a snake oil salesman. Someone should tell him to get a hair cut… the duck tail look is out.
Ernie,
love it! One can always rely on a haircut to reveal the truth. As Plato once said:
“Keep away from Shaggy Man” (In Ancient Greek, of course)
OK, here is the pitch for Jim Rickars “Intelligence Triggers.” $500 for 3 months with an absolute, no Qs asked $back guarantee for 90 days. Anyone have any experience with getting their $ back within the stated guarantee period?
I am not sure – and I wouldn’t risk it.
Ernie,
Don’t be ridiculous, of course not.
The challenge for you is that he suggests usually buying puts and calls well into the future (1-2 years usually). He may sell these options for a profit within a few months, but others will drag on. I doubt if in 3 months you would be able to determine if his suggestions would be profitable.
Jim Rickards…I am a fan of Rickards as an author and in terms of his macro viewpoint. He must be given some credit for this. But that is a lot different than subscribing to his picks, which are not necessarily going to do well even if his outlook is correct. I do not follow his individual picks. His “system” seems to be subjective speculation based on his insight into world macro economic and political affairs. Many picks are logical from that perspective but can still bedevilled by timing or other factors, and many are options with high risk.
Rickard’s has been discussed a lot in prior threads:
May 4…Jim Rickard’s Impact System
Jan 20…Jim Rickards, Saudi Arabia, and the Great Currency Shock of 2016
Ernie 40: I too started listening to Rickards KC pitch in this eleventh hour before the Brexit vote count. I’m a displaced (some would say misplaced) New Yorker living in the UK, whose inbuilt gut instinct always over rules what is perceived. We New Yorkers must develop a street savvy awareness at an early age — call it survival. Rickards is a permanent party to the Agora “team”. Despite my respect for this clever, worldly man, at its core he, and the Agora team are salesmen whose bottom line are their own pockets.
Hendrixnuzzel: I once took a bite at the bit with an Agora get rich quick scheme for £945 but quickly realized my error and demanded a refund with their grace period. True to their word I got a refund.
There are two rules that apply to trading/speculating the markets; rule #1: No one can time the markets consistently. Rule #2: See rule #1. Use your time to form strategies that will show you market direction, not market timing strategies.
To my great shame and chagrin, I have to admit I got sucked in to the tune of $700 CDN, for a 1/4 year subscription to RIckards Kissinger Cross, and it was me that got tacked up on it! Of the 7 plays he’s put me onto, only one paid off, a gold options call, and even at 160%, it didn’t go very far to alleviate the fact that the other 6 have pretty much wiped me out! Nothing under a 60% loss on ALL of ’em, and I fully expect the options to expire absolutely WORTHLESS! Keep your cash in a soup can folks. He talks a good game, but he couldn’t call a square dance, never mind a winning option!
Options trading is REALLY hard to do well, particularly if you’re buying options and using them to speculate on big picture moves in the economy or currencies. Being right about direction is hard enough, being right about timing to the month is incredibly difficult and I’d say it requires luck as well as skill. We should always be skeptical about “big picture” advisories, and, frankly, about most options advisories — even those who take the lower risk route and sell options have trouble, partly because the universe of options contracts that have big enough trading volume to absorb the impact of a newsletter recommendation without wildly skewing prices is pretty small.
oh, boy, another tool marketed at the elderly and the recalcitrant?
Take his advice: let him take more of your money for more actionable advice even after you have purchased “all” of his advice instruments
It doesn’t sound scammy at all!!
BUY GOLD??? NO!! WRONG METAL…
IF YOU REALLY FEAR A FINANCIAL COLLAPSE –
..THE RIGHT METAL TO BUY
….IS LEAD1!!!
( I SAY TWO SIPHON HOSES ..ONE FOR WATER AN ONE FOR GAS …PLUS LOTS OF AMMO ….WILL DO MORE FOR YOU THAN GOLD.. WHEN/IF MONEY (DOLLARS) ARE NO LONGER VALUABLE…)
A) GOLD IS NOT MONEY!.. and you cant eat or drink it..and it cant keep you Cool or Warm or Safe.. and you cant get change for the supposedly $10k gold coin… so what’s it worth to be able to buy a $10,ooo galleon of gas or milk!??
B) ATTRIBUTING A POTENTIAL VALUE OFF TEN-THOUSAND DOLLARS/OZ FOR GOLD…IS MEANINGLESS… IF DOLLARS HAVE NO VALUE, YES!??
C) IF DOLLARS, AS HE PREDICTS, ARE TO BECOME WORTHLESS…
…WHY DOES HE WANT MINE?
…AND YOURS, TOO!!??
Eric,
OMG, not another Rocky Mountain Survivalist with your back to the wall?
Sure,
when your options mature, the dollar won’t buy squat, let alone milk and fuel. Then, natch, it boils down to what’s really important. I suggest you dump material goods and settle for love given and received.
Yours,
Plato
I have been a subscriber to Jim Rickards for the last 2 months and have read 3 of his books. The books are very well researched and thorough. There are lot of good insight in his book, especially Death of Money, Road to Ruin (read chapter 2 on ‘elites of the world) . Being a good author and monetary expert does not make him a good investment advisor. Investment advise as good as ‘timing’. You can have the fundemental right, but if you do not know when to buy and sell then you are a terrible investor. Back in 2008 crash. Even back in 2005 many people were calling it the great housing bubble. But it is those who knew the bubble and ones who play into the bubble and sold everthing before everything crashed down, those people are the one who made money. Jim is good analyst with great mind, but terrible investment advisor and trader.
Brian
Just another ‘scare the pants off them’ merchandising scam. Haven’t we seen it all before? When the price of gold rises under buying pressure, savvy insiders dump their gold and gold mine shares asap., netting a nifty short-term profit. While all the suckers out there are left holding the (gold) baby.
Anybody who claims to have this kind of “insight” is selling something. And what they sell makes them more wealthy at your expense.