Golds next bull run? What to buy?Gold looks to be headed higher even with a strong dollar so what are the best ways to play the next bull run in gold? I know Travis has (SAND) in his portfolio but I’d like to know his thoughts as well as yours. Do long term call options make sense for more leverage? I’d like to know what others who believe gold is going higher are buying and what worked best the last time gold reached new highs. Thank you in advance for your input. JB
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JY: Hey Boss, those employment numbers are really bad. But we need to raise rates a little tiny bit.
BHO: Yeah, I can see that. But it’s OK, just leave it alone, we don’t want a stock and bond crash right before the election. And don’t call me Boss. You are independent and you know who the real bosses are.
JY: Speaking of which, the guys at Goldman and Citi and JP Morgan Chase and the others aren’t complaining, they will figure out how to make money whatever happens as long as they know beforehand. But we are looking pretty stupid and I don’t think this Negative Rate thing will fly. It just doesn’t make any sense and will make things really weird. It’s embarrassing.
BHO: Yeah, I can see that. The Negative Rate thing’s not working for the Europeans or the Japs, either. Just tough it out. No one said this job would be easy every day.
JY: We really need a tiny, teeny rate increase to maintain credibility.
BHO: Look, you may have to just look a little silly for a couple months. You just raised the possibility of a .25% increase a while ago, and look what happened. We can’t have a stock and bond crash right now, the Chinese will wind up buying everything in sight, and our budget deficit will reach Mars before our next spacecraft does.
Just sit tight and keep making threatening noises. Growl enough to keep the dollar strong for a little while longer and gold prices within reason. We can’t have Rickards and Casey crowing about $10,000 gold when Hillary is campaigning in Taxes. Whoops, I mean Texas, of course. And we can’t have the remnants of the middle class see their IRAs and home equity vaporized in the next few months. There’s a few of them left out there and they will get torqued off and write in Sanders or vote for Trump…except for those who didn’t have private sector jobs, or savings, or home equity.
JY: Hey boss, wait a minute, then maybe it’s OK, I think you can win without them.
BHO: Really ? I’ll have to do the math…But if we can win for sure with the votes of government employees and benefit recipients, and those who have no home equity or savings, and the vested interests in establishment industries like government, defense, medicine, insurance, financial services, education, and all the misguided liberals, and get the media behind us with our minority friends, we might win anyway. So it might be OK to raise the Fed rate by a quarter of a percent. But I’ll have to get back to you.
JY: Thanks, Boss. I mean, Mr. President.
Very entertaining HN!!
BHO: Hey Yell. Here’s a friendly suggestion. You are independent of course, so make your own decision. The fact that a comment from you can decide the course of American political and economic history should not influence your thinking. Just do what you think is best.
JY: Thanks, Boss.
BHO: I told you to stop calling me Boss.
JY: Sorry, Boss. I forgot.
BHO: Jeez nevermind. Anyway here’s my suggestion. I’ll get the guys to pull out all the stops on the numbers for the next couple of months. We’ll do the best we can, but you know of course that things really suck and they may be pretty bad. Just figure out how to put the best spin on things that you can. And if you just have to have some dopey little rate increased, make sure it’s the minimum.
JY: Really ?
BHO: Yes. Your credibility and the independence of the Fed is very important.
JY: What if it causes a stock, bond, and real estate crash ?
BHO: Well, I’ve thought about it with the team and this is what we think. We can protect the Wall Street guys, we just distribute copies of The Big Short and force them all to see it. They will know what to do. Plus they can borrow as much as they need to bail the thing out.
JY: What about real estate?
BHO: The real estate guys are a small group, and real estate transactions take a few months, so things will start to get rough and some deals may get nixed, but they won’t be really killed til after the election. And all those buyers really couldn’t afford new houses anyway.
JY: What about people getting hurt on stocks and bonds ? The middle class ? People with IRAs?
BHO: There aren’t so many of them left anyway. They’ll have to take a hit. Most of them like Trump anyway. And we are leaving them alone for the time being on Social Security and Medicare.
JY: What about the young people ?
BHO: That’s easy. Most of them are on our side anyway, but Hill can float a big initiative to forgive student loans to seal the deal.
JY: Great, so it’s a go ?
BHO: Pretty sure. Just have to run the numbers again. We’ve got the media, the military, insurance, medical industry, educational establishment, unions, welfare , all state, local, and Federal employees, and anyone without savings, assets, or home equity; plus our natural ethnic and LGBT constituents; and any other stray liberals, assuming Bernie doesn’t muck things up. I think we can swing it.
JY: So it’s a go ?
BHO: Yes, but the timing has to be good. My suggestion is that you make the move right near the start of the NFL season, or in the middle of the baseball playoffs. If you can pick a date while college football is underway, that will perfect. The Armed Services have a great PR campaign ready for all three, and everyone will be distracted rooting for their favorite teams and watching the flag waving and jets flying and singing the Star Spangled Banner when the news hits.
JY: Sounds good.
BHO: It’s just a friendly suggestion. Use your own judgment. Hillary will be watching, of course.
JY: Of course.
BHO: She will appreciate whatever you decide in your best judgment. But if things go to hell, she may have to blame you in public and you might be out of a job.
JY: It’s OK, this job sucks.
BHO: And don’t worry. You’ll get a lot of fat speaking fees, although I don’t think you will be as popular as Greenspan; and Michelle and I can get you a juicy gig someplace.
We have a lot of good connections at Harvard and some other places.
JY: Thanks, Boss. I mean Mr. President. Regards to Michelle and Hillary.
HN You should be a screen writer,,,or do you just have a hidden mike in the oval office? You have shown something few realize. Foundations and speaking fees are great
income producers,,, especially if you have a non profit foundation that allows you to escape normal taxation. All in the governing class play that same game, to some extent,
to build personal wealth. You did not mention the revolving door of employment by financial giants and government employment of the same movers of sentiment,,, and the resultant taxpayer funded bailouts. One of the governments largest assets,by their reckoning, is the $trillion debt owed by students and sold to investors from abroad as accounts receivable. Only in Hollywood, or Washington DC. do you find such accounting.
CLOSING THE THREAD…please follow on:
GOLD BULL INVESTMENTS FOR THE NEXT LEG UP…June 2016
Will leave this open for a few days for comments on the preceding conversations of Barck and Yell, which are only tangentially related to gold.
I had a wonderful time for the last few month, thanks everyone for your great contributions. With gold going back up over $1250 on no news, we are at a neutral point, and now is a good time to end the edition.
You have done a masterful job of both educating and informing people like me, HN. Thanks
GBIFTNLU: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/06/microblog-gold-bull-investments-for-the-next-leg-upjune-2016/ Thank you HN and Gold bugz…incredible sluething and DD, 🙂 🙂 🙂 – Ben
I’d say this has a bullish ring to it. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36477979
FYI, the link for the next iteration of this thread is: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/06/microblog-gold-bull-investments-for-the-next-leg-upjune-2016/