written by reader Golds next bull run? What to buy?

By jbnaples, March 3, 2016

Gold looks to be headed higher even with a strong dollar so what are the best ways to play the next bull run in gold? I know Travis has (SAND) in his portfolio but Iโ€™d like to know his thoughts as well as yours. Do long term call options make sense for more leverage? Iโ€™d like to know what others who believe gold is going higher are buying and what worked best the last time gold reached new highs. Thank you in advance for your input. JB

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

investor101
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘32

First of all thanks to Hendrix Nuzzles and others for the wonderful insights about the metals. I am a new investor and learning by trial and error, first by subscribing to some really unnessary newsletters and losing a lot of money. Don’t remember how I found Travis last year, but immediately became an irregular and so very grateful for each of you sharing and caring about others. I too have some mining stocks that have been mentioned and I am beyond thrilled to see them going up, these miners need some good news! I love all things gold and in… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Hi Karen, Personally I am not looking for trading profits on most of my gold positions. I am looking for insurance and protection from unpredictable outcomes in our national financial and economic scene. And I look at gold royalty stocks as being equivalent to saving in a money market or government bond. I would rather have my extra $ 5,000 funds socked away in FNV or SAND at low prices, than I would in a money market fund. But that is what I am comfortable with, though it is not for everyone. So the right allocation depends on your outlook.… Read More ยป

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dan62
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘207

If you figure out the definitive answers to those questions let me know.. Balance is the best way to chug along..
I like the being invested in North American miners.. Gives me peace of mind.. Other parts of the world I don’t know how stable they are.. ( kinda like if you can’t go take a piss on it once in awhile don’t buy it…

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

No definitive answers are out there. Only your answers.

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

If one is really unsure about what is going to happen, then diversification is appropriate. When you start developing an opinion about what is going to happen or what is likely to happen, then you can consider becoming less diversified, depending on the conviction of your beliefs and the perceived chances of certain things occurring. For example, I believe that the government and central bank policies are eventually going to result in failure, and awful things for paper currencies. I am not on a politcal crusade to change anything, I am just trying to see clearly what is happening. I… Read More ยป

Yoopert
Guest
Yoopert

Thanks to all who have been contributing to this discussion! I have been lurking on the sidelines for awhile and decided to join. It is refreshing to find a discussion where everybody acts respectful and helpful. I am blessed enough to have gotten in on many of these stocks discussed in January. I have subscribed to investment services in the past and have learned that I do best if I do my own research and investigating. Discussions such as this are very helpful. I look forward to future discussions and contributing in a positive way if I am able.

investor101
Irregular
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Thanks Dan, I guess that is why it is a big crap shoot, isn’t it? But…the dice are loaded in our favor with a decent find and excellent proven management. Agree with ng I do like PVG and also AG. I just don’t like the thought of being dropped in the grease if they know something beforehand and dump their shares. Guess I need to be diligent and watch this account every day. I started my own account with Ameritrade because the vulture financial managers we have had made plenty of money and we were not!! Just sick of it… Read More ยป

investor101
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘32

Question… Does anyone think it worth $1450 to invest in Casey’s International Speculator newsletter for a year as we see the metals market change?

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faz
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘3
faz

Hi investor101… I did subscribe to it.. and sadly lost far more than the lifetime-subscription (am seriously considering not continuing it…) With hindsight I’ve learned you can find out many good stock picks without spending a dime on a subscription. There are a number of free newsletters, and nowadays it’s easy to look at the holdings inside the various funds. For example, if you go to the SEDAR website you can see the official forms that Sprott has to fill out detailing what miner stocks they hold in their various funds. (That’s a much better quality list than say, the… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
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I think you can get more than enough great precious metal investment ideas for $49 on Stock Gumshoe. You can also get tons of ideas by looking at the positions of the funds, who detail for you the tickers and relative positions they have in their portfolios. Tickers you can get for free, and your own research is again for free. So…why bother spending $ 1450 ? If you are really rich, this amount might not bother you. There are lots of people to whom $1450 isn’t that much, you have to remember the newsletter publishers want to get these… Read More ยป

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Karen
Guest
Karen

Dear frahman, thank you so much! Looks like I will be very busy. I want to learn and try to take care of our own money we have worked hard to earn. Of course I am antsy anticipating doing this. I made a notebook and have been looking every morning on Yahoo finance to see where each of my positions are, so hopefully I will be able to catch a falling stock if it isn’t one I want to keep and sell immediately. I have read that it isn’t good to do a trailing stop on my brokerage account, seems… Read More ยป

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arch1
Member
๐Ÿ‘7795

Karen When things are slow and volume of trades are low day traders that get bored will go stop hunting. They will begin selling until stops are triggered sell a little more into that to add to snowball effect and before it drops too much will make one or two large buys at bottom,which shoots price back up. That is often done before a buy into something to clear stops and gain rebound momentum to drive stocks higher. You can often see stocks drop a little just before they shoot up. Such gaming is perfectly legal and has the effect… Read More ยป

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

FINDING GOLD INVESTMENTS AND PERSONAL ALLOCATIONS If you are looking for good ideas, here are some suggestions: 1. Go to the Swiss conference website I referenced and check out the list of firms who presented there. There are presentations the companies made at the conference, and these firms all ponied up presentation and conference fees to present their companies to a sophisticated international audience. 2. Go to your broker’s page on any market cap gold fund or index, and drill down to their holdings, which will be listed. 3. Go backwards on the gold threads on Stock Gumshoe and trawl… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

FINDING GOLD INVESTMENTS AND PERSONAL ALLOCATIONS If you are looking for good ideas, here are some suggestions: 1. Go to the Swiss conference website I referenced and check out the list of firms who presented there. There are presentations the companies made at the conference, and these firms all ponied up presentation and conference fees to present their companies to a sophisticated international audience. 2. Go to your broker’s page on any market cap gold fund or index, and drill down to their holdings, which will be listed. 3. Go backwards on the gold threads on Stock Gumshoe and trawl… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

My opinion on the newsletters is that none of them can be followed blindly. To me they are informative entertainment and provide ideas that need to be investigated. One should pick a budget for subscriptions and education that are appropriate to your means. I tend to look for newsletters with authors who have an outlook and philosophy I agree with. But the investment picks can be horrible and the sooner you realize that NO ONE HAS THE ANSWERS OR A CRYSTAL BALL, the better off you will be. These guys are in the publishing and subscription business. For example, I… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

$PVG…I am easily entertained and spend a lot of effort following this company. So I will post updates on it. Some things I have noticed: 1. The staff at the Brucejack mill site was originally going to be 900 people. This has been reduced to about 500. At the same time they have announced capex savings from the original construction estimates. The original figures to get the mill working were over $900 million, they are now going to GET IT DONE for under $700 million. These guys are building a mill, roads, power lines, a mining camp, and an underground… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

$PVG…long PVG…impact of higher gold and silver prices Hi everyone. Looks like gold is headed for $ 1300. It may go higher, it may go lower. But for a moment let’s pretend that gold gets over $1300 and stays there. What would this do to PVG ? Well PVG is going to produce 500,000 ounces of gold per year starting next fall. The forecasts are based on $ 1100 gold. So with $ 1300 gold, PVG yearly income after starting operations will be better than forecast by a tidy $ 100 million dollars ($200 price increase times 500,000 ounces). On… Read More ยป

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arch1
Member
๐Ÿ‘7795

This might be a decent entry point by selling puts. One $8 lot and one @ $9.
yield roughly $1.60 with price on underlying at $8.12 on the May16 that settles May 18th.
IMHO

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

I agree but tactically the options should be your icing on the cake. I would get get long. And in this case I am breaking my own recommendations by buying some long dated, out of the money calls. But the money is small compared to my core long position in the stock. I bought some September 6.00 calls for 2.50. I think the revision to the mine plan and new reserve estimates will be announced in May or June. So I am paying 50 cents over intrinsic value to get a position that may explode by $5 or $6 on… Read More ยป

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jayneq
Irregular
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jayneq

Pre-market opening, Gold was a tad over $1300. It will be interesting if it beats the gold high from last year at 1307.
Long $PVG.
HN, Thank you for all your helpful suggestions and tips… definitely find them useful and educational.
Jayne

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

You are welcome. I feel an urgency to be correct in my assessment of PVG for the sake of those who are persuaded. Remember the entire thesis is based on higher gold values, which may or may not occur. There is also a risk of government intervention in gold instruments.

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

$BRIZF…long speculation…something is up. The price gapped up to 3 year highs today. Have no idea why.

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
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Brazil Resources announces NI 43-101 gold resource for the Island Mountain deposit within the Whistler Project, Alaska
PR Newswire8:30 AM ET, 04/18/2016
Brazil Resources announces completion of Geophysical Survey on its Rea Uranium Project, Western Athabasca Basin

It’s hard for me to get excited by a gold deposit at .5 grams per ton. I am in the stock for the uraqnium but U308 is still dead in the water. One positive is that I could visit the site when I go skiing at Whistler.

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investor101
Irregular
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Please do because I own this stock too. Bought because of the positive accolades by Rick Rule, of Amir the CEO Also for the uranium source as an additional plus. I believe Casey likes it too. Should be very valuable in the long term.

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

It could be a really long time for uranium prices to move up. I am long CCJ, UEC BRIZF, but these are speculations on the price of uranium and the sector is dead as a doornail. I have reduced holdings since I think there are compelling opportunities elsewhere. But I like being able to cover a complete energy sector with one or two stocks. and I don’t think there is a lot of downside at current prices.

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investor101
Irregular
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WOW!!! Can’t thank you enough Hendrix, Arch, Dan, Frahman…and all others for the valuable info and direction you provide for me to study and learn. I have been reading StockGumshoe a long time,I am an Irregular, but have never had the moxie to post. I want to learn as much as I can to help us in our retirement years. We have an oilfield service company and fighting to keep our doors open since August, 2015. What a battle! Looks like we are going to have to call it a day in the sun. Have had to let people go… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Karen, best of luck to you and your family. You have a lot of responsibility and it is not “play money” for either of us.

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

$PVG…A skeptic is converted….long PVG Hi here is a true anecdote that happened this week. One of my best friends, who I have known for over 50 years is a crusty, curmudgeonly, opinionated, skeptical, hard boiled, straight-shooting exploration geologist. Let’s call him Mr. Cranky Geologist. His background is mostly in oil -ferrous materials. He is an executive in Thermo Fisher, a great company and a Doc long. Before allocating more money into PVG, I thought “…hmmm… I got as buddy in the geology business and mass spectometers, and I really don’t understand magmitic porphyry vulcanism very well. Maybe Mr. Cranky… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

Investment style, diversification, and a benefit of Posting on the Stock Gumshoe threads Hi everyone, I have found that after casting a fairly wide net in terms of investment choices, I have had a tendency to consolidate my assets into a smaller number of picks on which I have developed, for various reasons, very strong convictions. I think what happens is that I develop a more complete understanding of the company. investments in other companies become less attractive, simply because I do not know as much about them as I do the target, nor do I have the same level… Read More ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

I forgot to mention: I like to post on SG because it forces me to think clearly about my motivations and reasoning for making these investments. I feel that if I cannot explain and justify the reason for the move in a public forum, then my thinking is not clear enough to be putting real money into the market. When I put out an idea and my reasons, I know that there are a lot of smart people out there who will jump in and play devil’s advocate. At least, I hope so. Having no dissent is not a substitute… Read More ยป

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arch1
Member
๐Ÿ‘7795

I cannot fault your reasoning. We are in a bit of an anomaly right now in that the Market and the gold price are both up. I think that is just a recognition of the decline of the Dollar as money from all nations is invested in the US. As dollar declines that should make market price rise measured in dollars when purchased in other currencies. IMHO
So this current rise may not be sustained for long. In the long run Yes.gold will rise.
Everyone has a wild card in the IMF and its manipulations.

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dan62
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘207

Here is a link to an Elliott wave guy’s blog I like to check. He gives an update on all the markets. He is usually pretty close. No one is dead on all the time..
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2016/05/guesstimates-on-may-2-2016.html?m=1

hendrixnuzzles
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘9957

I want to learn more about Elliott Wave as a chart tool. What is interesting is whether the phenomenon, if it is real, has its underpinnings in human behavioral psychology or in naturally occurring statistical tendencies such as Fibonacci ratios.

As I understand it, it simply describes fairly common chart results. So it is describing
behavior but does not really explain why it “works”.

If in fact it is just empirical observation of tendencies in human behavior, it is less valuable because it is founded solely on correlations without really explaining why the
charts behave as they do.