#4_z$FLKS_Shoez

By SoGiAm, April 24, 2016

This thread is dedicated to shareholders of http://www.flex-pharma.com/index.php Enjoy!

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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hendrixnuzzles
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๐Ÿ‘9949

$FLKS…thanks for getting things going again on FLKS, Ben. And it’s best to have the seminal notes from Doc at the masthead. Re-reading good stuff is a habit of mine and Doc’s introduction sure seems as good as it did over a year ago. So what has happened that changes the scenario ? Well, it doesn’t seem like a while lot, other than the typical investor impatience after the IPO. “The darned thing hasn’t made me rich and I’ve been waiting six, maybe even seven months now. I’m going to go invest in Turkish put options, I don’t have time… Read more ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

https://www.google.com/search?q=sports+drink+market+share+2015&rlz=1C1SNNT_enUS540US540&espv=2&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiQpbH2pKjMAhXC5CYKHTqtA-IQsAQILg&biw=1366&bih=667#imgrc=QlAXlDTuKYZJrM%3A This is a good shot of the landscape. 60 Billion sports+energy drink market, plus an equally large tea market. In sports/energy, Coke and Pepsi have about 46% of the market with another 20$ split among Monster, Red Bull, and two others. Leaves about 1/3 or 20 Billion per year up for grabs among the smaller players. In the trade there is often a split between the sports drinks and the energy drinks. I would think there is no reason for FLKS not to make a drink that goes after both. In passing, I saw that FLKS has cinnamon as… Read more ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

It’s pretty encouraging that Red Bull and Monster have carved out 5% + market niches in a short time in the $ 60 billion dollar sports/energy market. These guys were non-existent a while ago and now have pretty important places. So it can be done. If FLKS were to earn 5% share, this is $3 billion per year retail. Call it $ 1.5-2.0 billion wholesale. Say the margins are between 20% and 35%. This implies margin revenue of $ 300 million on the low side, $ 700 million on the high side. Obviously a lot of possible slips between cup… Read more ยป

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hendrixnuzzles
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hendrixnuzzles

Beverage industry…a few other things from the charts…
–the sports/energy class is a small subset of the beverage industry. Carbonated beverages are 350 billion, sports/energy is 60 billion. Water, teas and juice are bigger than the sports/energy group.

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Sharon Schreiner
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Sharon Schreiner

I think the things I like best about FLKS is first, the pure simplicity of their product, and the amazing team they have to make it a success. They just don’t seem to be the sort that takes defeat as an answer. Dr KSS also pointed out that “Legendary Fidelity Magellan Fund manager Peter Lynch put personal funds into $FLKS.” We’re in good company. Long FLKS.

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Sharon Schreiner
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Sharon Schreiner

Oh, and I meant to say thank you to HN for taking on the responsibility of this thread.

hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9949

$FLKS…some basic stock data for those who have not been following along closely:

FLKS closed last week @ 12.43.

opened on January 15 @ $ 7.46 high 12.10, low 6.48, closed at 10.97
Since then:
hit a lifetime high of $ 24.82 in April 2015…MC about 500 MM
hit a lifetime low of $ 6.48 MC about 100 MM
slightly less than 18 MM shares outstanding
Institutional interest 60%
Short interest low single digits
Company pedigree per Doc’s article
Unnamed beverage not on market yet

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hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9949

FLKS…long now twelve and change…whatever. Money and mouth are in synch.

hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9949

FLKS…http://www.flex-pharma.com/
Anyone thinking about FLKS or in it should see the website.

Doc and Sharon have alluded to the quality of top people in the company.
Both have understated the case somewhat. You’ve got a board chock full of successfull and high-profile people in research, consumer beverages, high tech, medicine, and Wall Street.

niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

OK, I read through the above list. Sounds good. Somewhere the Doc talked about a presentation to be made between April 18-25. Does anyone know anything about that?

Also, I did find a negative article about the stock. Has anyone seen this? This guy makes fun of the simplicity of the product: http://www.thestreet.com/story/13027146/1/the-absurdity-of-flex-pharma-ipo-2-spices-and-a-veg-net-86m.html

It was written way back when the stock had it’s IPO. So far, the guy seems to have hit the nail on the head, although I wish I would have invested back in January of this year!

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hendrixnuzzles
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๐Ÿ‘9949

Feuerstein’s jaundiced view may have some validity and he may even prove to be correct. But I doubt it. For one thing there are lot of FLKS backers besides NBA and NFL owners who are way more concerned with integrity, their own reputation, science, ethics, and other good things. Do you think a Nobel prize winner, a Harvard neurosurgon, Peter Lynch, the former CEOs of Apple and Pepsico are going to get sucked into and lend their names and reputations to a get-rich-quick quack enterprise ? For another thing, a year later FLKS has actually engaged in an succeeded in… Read more ยป

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niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

OK, I’m thinking about taking the plunge and getting in. I will look at the presentation tomorrow. Looks like a very low share count and rich in cash. Good science behind it and people backing it. Product coming out soon which hopefully will begin to bring in revenue. It’s sounding pretty good. THanks guys for the information.

niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

I have a question. Doc said: ” Itโ€™s neither a science nor medical play from here forward….”

But looking at their website, it looks like they are actually doing phase 2 trials and have more things planned. Anyway, I didn’t get the impression that it is no longer a science or medical play.

So perhaps the drink aspect of it is what Doc was referring to? Aren’t there still science/medical aspects to this stock?

The pipeline sounds like it too could produce some real value in time if they prove medically sound. Any comments?

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hendrixnuzzles
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๐Ÿ‘9949

They are pursuing real medical trials for cramping. But remember the stuff they are trialling is a “proprietary” compund, it may not be subject to patents. And the application is not exactly for a blockbuster disorder, though they do classify it as “an unmet medical need”. The scientific and medical results, if they come, would give huge credibility to the consumer product and it will augment the value of FLKS. But the consensus is that FLKS can be a tremendous commercial success, without proven clinical evidence of the effect of their compound, and that the key issues will be in… Read more ยป

niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

Thanks. I certainly understand that the main upside here is the drink. However, I listened to their recent conference call and they talked about applying for patents on their treatment protocol in the future and doing more trials. It seems to me that they would not be wasting time and money on further trials if it is for things they cannot patent. Maybe a longer term thing, but from their conference call, it does seem like there is a medical part to the play. one thing I was not very happy about personally is the price of the drink. I… Read more ยป

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Lannas
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๐Ÿ‘851
Lannas

If $5 was to high for a drink then Starbuck’s would be out of business. IMO
Long FLKS

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niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

I hope you are right. It’s just that you don’t see $5 drinks in the soda machine. Perhaps they are never planning on selling it like that or on the shelves of grocery stores. $5 is not too high for Starbucks drink, that’s true, but I doubt this is the type of drink you will buy at Starbucks either. Long $FLKS

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hendrixnuzzles
Member
๐Ÿ‘9949

My opinion is that with legitimate scientific justification for their product, the target market will support at higher prices than we are used to seeing. The drink will have prestige and the cache of something that really works. The target market spends huge money on expensive sneakers, tennis rackets made of space age materials, and loads of other overpriced stuff.

They can always lower prices if it is a problem. But they can’t raise them.

arch1
Member
๐Ÿ‘7784

This is not your grandmothers tea and tennis drink. This is for those who push the limits, win the medals set the records. Those that exert to the limit and seek an edge to keep playing through the pain. The winning edge. For weekend warriors you too can be weekend heroes without the pains you would normally experience. The WILL for that five yard sprint Thanksgiving afternoon to make cousin Clyde eat crow. Does it cost more than alligator wash ? You Bet but it is worth it if you want to win. What price for Bragging rights? Stock up… Read more ยป

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niizajim
Irregular
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Let’s hope it works! I’m not against a high price if it sells of course.

invest405
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๐Ÿ‘100
invest405

$FLKS – Serious, painful nocturnal leg cramps are something many of my family members are plagued with. As my mother aged, her cramps got even worse and near the end, and I was up night after night with her, trying to do anything that might bring relief. In our search for a remedy (she took quinine pills earlier in life but that has been banned) I realized that she was not alone in “nocturnal” pain. Nocturnal cramps coupled with restless leg seemed to run rampant among the aging population. We would have shelled out plenty for a true remedy. Will… Read more ยป

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niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

Long $FLKS

Interesting interview with Dr. Bob Murray about this product here:

http://www.fatcyclist.com/2016/05/24/new-fattycast/#comment-668932

In the comment section, a number of people did mention that it is a bit too pricey for them which I was/am still concerned with, but at least this guy says it really works. He said his cramps stopped almost immediately both times he used the product.

Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘2740
Sharon Schreiner

I just preordered a few bottles myself from their website. There was no shipping charge, and you order in batches of 6. Niizajim, look at the backgrounds of their management team, and I think your worries about their marketing skills will at least diminish. The athletes that want an edge will pay the price, and 5 bucks is enough to give it an ‘elitist’ air which doesn’t hurt at all. They already have famous athletes lining up to promote it. I think the price will eventually drop, but it is smart in my opinion to begin this way, because it… Read more ยป

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Lannas
Member
๐Ÿ‘851
Lannas

$FLKS – They must have sold out of pre order supplies. Preorder is closed.
Long FLKS

arch1
Member
๐Ÿ‘7784

Sharon Please let us know what you think of taste. As to marketing you khave it right. It is almost impossible to raise price without complaint. If you price high and have
50% off sales you can sell four times as much as if you have normal price there. IE $29.95 a sixpak ,buy one get one free and people buy a case of 24 for $59.90,,, or two for five dollars.

Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘2740
Sharon Schreiner

Will do. ๐Ÿ™‚

niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

That’s true. If they run sales on it, then the actual price would not be $5 and people would feel like they are getting a bargain.

niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

$FLKS

WOW! Look at this insider buying record here:

http://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/FLKS/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-StockTwits

Amazing!

niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

He bought tons in March and tons again here in May.

255K shares in May! – 2,248,000 dollars invested in May alone!

The dollar figure for March was almost identical.
WOW!
4.5 million over 3 months purchased on the open market. I guess he feels pretty sure of this stock!

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niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

$FLKS – long And this is why he bought so many shares: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/scientific-breakthrough-sports-nutrition-change-120000911.html Product launches today! “Trusted by World-Class Athletes: TeamHOTSHOT The proprietary HOTSHOT formulation is NSF Certified for Sportยฎ and has been extensively tested by amateur and world-class athletes across endurance sports, track and field, professional football and tennis. Among the elite athletes and sports scientists, who are the company’s brand ambassadors and rely on the product’s NMP benefits, are: U.S. National Team distance runners expected to compete on the world stage this summer, Shalane Flanagan, Amy Cragg, Colleen Quigley and Evan Jager. Five-time IRONMANยฎ and IRONMAN 70.3ยฎ World… Read more ยป

Sharon Schreiner
Irregular
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Sharon Schreiner

My HOTSHOTs arrived today, and are quite tiny. I took a few sips. The taste is like a cinnamon hot, and it leaves a warm tingle on the tongue, throat, and part way down the esophagus. I find the taste and even the sensation rather pleasant. The warm feeling is much like the warmth from an alcoholic drink. It certainly leaves a sensation that its gotta be doing something. They have a winner in terms of taste, IMO.

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niizajim
Irregular
๐Ÿ‘972

FLKS is stumbling of late, but the CEO keeps on buying! I guess that is some consolation.

copacetic98
Member
๐Ÿ‘17

$FLKS was thoroughly and convincingly trashed at great length today in Seeking Alpha – http://seekingalpha.com/article/3985048-flex-pharma-load-cramp

Disclosure – I’m long $FLKS, but considering dumping it

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ddman92129
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ddman92129

PicklePower advertised to stop cramps on Tour de France. Scientific claims made in June 2010. Selling for $20 a 12 pack.
http://www.picklepower.com/the-product/scientific-study/

Sorry if this has already been discussed.

Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
Admin
๐Ÿ‘12144

I’m at the Pan-Mass Challenge now, we start the ride at 4am tomorrow — thought you might be interested to know that the Hot Shots folks had a booth in the little “expo” area, and had a couple folks there to explain what the product is and how it works to prevent cramping. I sampled it, extremely spicy and I think it would make me sick if I did a full dose before exercising, but I’ll try it in the middle of the first day tomorrow and see if it stops my legs from locking up at mile 90. Should… Read more ยป