by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | May 25, 2016 11:30 am
This is premium content. To view this article (and to have full access to the rest of our articles), sign up. Already a member? Log in.
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/05/why-is-input-surging/
Copyright ©2024 Stock Gumshoe unless otherwise noted.
Travis, Perhaps this is a sell before earnings event to lock in profits…
That’s not what I’ve chosen to do, but folks doing short-term trading might well make that call. There’s always potential for both good and bad in a quarterly report, and I suspect Input investors who bought when it bottomed out last Summer, like I did, are probably a little jittery after this strong run.
Thanks Travis. Been watching since the available choices for agriculture investments that I like is narrrow and these guys have an innovative model like the metal streamers that I think has a lot of potential.
I’m sort of waiting til I think we are near a trigger for secular inflation or in agricultural commodities. Been watching LAND, DBA , KPLUF, and WHGPY and a a few other other but have not taken positions yet.
$INPCF…Headline…Light bulb goes on.
Check the prices for canola oil, they have gone straight up for two months.
Maybe a parallel to the stealth gold bull market from late January…no one seems to have noticed. If they can miss it in gold they sure can overlook canola oil.
Canola has been rising, which could be part of the reason for Input’s recovery, though prices aren’t moving particularly dramatically. I would be careful about assuming a “hard asset” play akin to gold, I think it has a lot more to do with growing conditions and relative values of crops that might influence farmers planting wheat or soybeans instead of canola, as well as the rise or fall of other canola growing areas around the world, among other influences. It’s all pretty inscrutable to me, but canola is a basic input for all kinds of foods and there’s a good infrastructure for it in Canada, so I expect some seasons to be better than others but don’t really expect wild fluctuations in canola prices. A serious canola-specific pest or disease problem, or rise of some large new canola producing region in South America or something could certainly have an impact, as would a sustained drought, but those are things to think about as you estimate about how much money you want to risk, not things we can really predict.
$INPCF…agree with your points, Travis. I have no position in INCPF,
but one thing I would want to see is the form of their contracts. My impression is that they are similar to streams, in that X amount of percent of a farmer’s production is on call to INCPF at Y price, or is allocated as is to INCPF in consideration of their financing.
Depending on the particulars, this could mean that a small crop with very high prices might work to the benefit of INCPF, in that they have a fixed cost and will profit disproportionately on high prices, with the incremental increase in canola prices all dropping to their bottom line.
I see Travis dropped his INP position a couple of years ago as part of general portfolio cleanout. Looks like that was a pretty lucky decision; the stock price has simply dropped since then. I’m now down 45% in the position, but wondering if this might be the time to buy in, the price is now below 95 cents. Will anybody be monitoring their Dec 7 conference call? It still seems like a great idea and they seem to have been executing on their long-term plan.