by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | August 29, 2016 10:19 am
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Thank you. So much for me to learn..
I read your original analysis on the 15th panning this stock but after researching the situation decided to buy (surprising because I usually agree with you!) and bought 1500 shares – up 28.53% in two weeks! Of course, Agora is partly responsible for this but then I think that part of successful investing (short term) is knowing when a major player is jumping on or pushing something (check out Herbalife’s 3.3% gain today when it was reported that Icahn purchased an additional 2.3 million shares for another example) … it may not be a long-term play, but short-term it is a money-maker — the key is not to stay around too long!
Glad you’ve done well, the stock has benefitted hugely over the past couple days by an even more aggressive teaser pitch by Agora, tying Energous and Apple even more closely together using Blanco’s arguments. The notion that it will be in the next iPhone announced next week should be laughable, since Energous itself has said that they won’t be shipping chips or products before very late in 2016 at the earliest, but I expect that a huge part of the speculation in the shares over the last few weeks comes specifically because of Agora and that Sept. 7 announcement “rumor” — so my rationale is that the collapse will be the same as when their previous short-term promise of a Tim Cook mention at WWDC failed to materialize in June. Despite Blanco’s arguments, which might hold some water when it comes to future 2017 or 2018 or later possibilities, I put the probability of Energous tech being in the iPhone 7 at zero, and the chance that it will be mentioned in Apple’s announcement at all at pretty close to Zero. The iPhone 7 may have wireless charging, but I’d bet not — and if it does have wireless charging, I don’t see any way possible that it could be Energous wireless charging.
Maybe next year, or in a few years, but who knows — or maybe they’ll be bought by someone next week or will have non-Apple good news that drives them higher. I bet the shares are back near or below $12 in two weeks… but time will tell, and I won’t have to sell my house if I’m wrong.
I pretty much agree with your statement here which is why I intend to sell my shares on Sept. 6 to play safe (I, too, think they will drop when folks realize that Apple and Energous are not “marrying” despite Agora’s hype) …. but it will be a nice profit by then,
Could be … Should be an interesting week, it’s always curious to see how much influence an ad campaign can have on a stock… The best guess is they’ll probably keep the campaign running up until 9/6 if it’s working to bring in subscribers, but you never know — and it can move fast either way, partly because it’s an entirely story-driven stock and there’s already a big short position.
My understanding is that Lou Basenese is recommending readers of his newsletter to shift from WATT to CLIR (ClearSign Combustion). WATT has tripled this year so Lou made a great call. I am very long CLIR and expect it to at least double (and probably more) within 6 months as its technology is at an inflection point (ahead of the share price at this point). A licensing deal with a boiler manufacturer will basically double the share price overnight and it has 4 other verticals for its Duplex low NOx technology that increases efficiency and safety:
Once Through Steam Generators, Refinery Heaters, Flares in the Oil and Gas industry, and other large industrial operations (cement, steel, paper, chemicals etc..)
CLIR was another MDB capital IPO, and is another one that has been teased a few times over the years — for a while it has seemed like MDB Capital had a real pipeline to some of the more aggressive newsletter hypesters (others in that group that have gotten a lot of press and been extremely volatile are Parametric Sound and Unipixel). I haven’t looked at the fundamentals of CLIR in a long time.
Travis: CLIR has made a nice move up this week. The next 12 months should be excellent for shareholders as the orders are starting to roll in for its disruptive Duplex technology that drastically cuts NOx and CO while actually increasing efficiency (nothing else can do this in pollution control).
There are 5 simultaneous verticals: 1. refinery heaters 2. Once Through Steam Generators OTSGs-used in the oil recovery and oil sands
3. industrial boilers 4. flares 5. heavy industry–paper mills, chemical plants, steel mills, cement plants etc…
It’s clear to me that CLIR is a Strong Buy right now–emerging technology that is badly needed
Just picked up some CLIR this morning on the news. A bit late to the party, but already in the green!
WATT was up 10% today…so now is a better time to Short? If I understand the thinking…
Hitting those prices yesterday meant I stopped being able to resist shorting.
emmm……….maybe just some wishful thinking…..But could Apple being so secretive that maybe it specified in it’s contractual agreement with WATT to send out wrong/inaccurate information on when it will ship out it’s first chips? Could it all be done to fool everyone as Apple loves it’s surprise launches? Am I stretching? I really want those 79,900% returns Dalia promised me!!! Not a big gambler but love anything related to Nikola Tesla so threw a few bucks at this stock “just in case” and so depending on my mood and the price may sell on Sept 6th………………or………..roll the dice and go Long! Regardless of Iphone7 intro, this is amazing technology with good patents and would be an industry changing technology so seems like a great thing to be in now even if they don’t ship until the end of 2016……….heck, that is only a few months away and I’m betting they have “pre-orders” all ready to go to some company(s) out there. Can’t imagine this NOT being huge News once sold to just about any company as it is so revolutionary……….even today’s price of $18 may seem cheap someday soon?! Oh well, beats the hell out of playing the Super Lotto!
Thanks for both the initial review and follow up opinion, ALWAYS appreciated and respected Travis, you are the best $50 bucks that I’ve ever spent on anything!
Whoops, meant to say Ray Blanco, NOT Dalia!
Travis
Off topic.
I don’t know how to submit this for your perusal, so am posting it here in case you want to do a teaser on it.
A Motley Fool Special Investigation
The Road to “Tier Zero”
An Investor’s Guide to Cashing in on the Next Evolution of Technology.
I quote: “Here’s how the World Economic Forum describes this emerging behemoth:
We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before.”
And: “Check this out (from Forbes):
“the effects of this technology will change the economics of virtually every industry.”
Thanks, that’s on the list for us to look at. That “Tier Zero” term has been thrown around by the Foolies for a while, though I don’t know if it’s been the same stocks getting pitched — there’s been a discussion running on that here: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/05/microblog-whats-motley-fool-teasing-with-tier-zero/
Selling short is too risky for me. I have enough trouble buying and selling conventionally(Without losing my shirt).
That’s probably very wise. I very rarely sell short.
Decided to take a tiny short position in my retirement account out of curiosity. Sold a Sep16 $17.5/$20 Call spread for 70 cents. Risking $183 to make $67 (counting fees) in 17 days (~37%) , so I hope WATT tanks or at least doesn’t go up from here.
Fidelity’s ‘hard-to-borrow’ fee on WATT is 63.5% annually. No misprint.
I took it.
That’s consistent with what I saw from some other brokers, though some also couldn’t find a borrow for me at all.
I hate Agora’s nauseating over-hype AND relentless beating of the same drum… but
I have been investing in WATT for the last 6 months … up over 30% since I started and also suspect there is a good chance Apple will announce wireless charging with the iPhone 7 (or whatever it is going to be called). With Samsung’s relentless bragging about their contact charging (don’t seem to be talking about the fires for some reason … ) Apple has a great opportunity to put some excitement into this version.
I REALLY respect your sage advice so am going to put in a stop loss order to salvage as much of my current gains just in case there is no announcement.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they introduce wireless charging, though I still think it’s unlikely — I would be completely shocked if they announce that the iPhone 7 will be the first product to use the Mini WattUp contact charging from Energous, since that seems designed for smaller wearables, and the other WattUp charging technologies aren’t anywhere near being ready yet.
The only window I leave open, and it’s just a crack, is that perhaps they could switch the Apple Watch charging to Energous, or introduce WattUp-charged wireless earbuds… but I only leave that window open a crack because I think it’s a remote possibility and I don’t like to be 100% certain of anything, not because it makes any logical sense to me. We’ll see.
Nice call and nice trade Travis.
Made some nice $ on my puts today, thank-you, Travis!
This is fun Travis! It’s around noon the day after (Thurs)
When to buy… when to buy…. (to close)
(I’m going to try to holdout until the call is only chewing 25% of the profit.)
btw, my ‘hard to borrow’ short fee is 63.5% annually lol
Travis…you are the man. Great call!
Nice call!! I’ve never sold short at all, but this seemed like a no brainer.